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What will be the JAXA daily Arctic SIE rank on 31 December 2018?

1 or 2 (i.e., lowest or second lowest)
3 (6%)
2 or 3
11 (22%)
3 to 5
10 (20%)
4 to 7
16 (32%)
6 to 10
1 (2%)
8 to 14
4 (8%)
11 or more
5 (10%)

Total Members Voted: 50

Voting closed: December 06, 2018, 06:03:27 PM

Author Topic: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking  (Read 3170 times)

Steven

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Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« on: November 22, 2018, 06:03:27 PM »
There was a similar poll last year.  I'm curious if the currently relatively high extent affects people's expectations.

Note that the bins are overlapping.

Previous years' JAXA extent for 31 December:

rank  year     extent [million km2]
1       2017     11.90
2       2016     12.10
3       2010     12.19
4       2015     12.27
5       2013     12.34
6       2012     12.43
7       2014     12.47
8       2008     12.49
9       2009     12.54
10     2004     12.56
11     2006     12.58
12     2005     12.59
13     2007     12.66
14     2011     12.68
15     2003     12.94



Current conditions: extent is pretty high at the moment due to the early freezing of Hudson and Baffin Bay.  Hudson Bay shouldn't play a role for the year-end extent (as it's always frozen by the end of December), but perhaps it could suggest early freezing of Labrador Sea and Gulf of St. Lawrence.  On the Pacific side of the Arctic, sea surface temperatures in both the Bering and Okhotsk Sea seem to be pretty high for the time of year, which may delay the freeze in those regions.

Neven

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2018, 06:22:05 PM »
Good idea. Thanks for this poll, Steven. I'll go for 3-5.
Compare, compare, compare

litesong

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2018, 06:53:34 PM »
I'll go for 3-5.
Since Neven criticized me for dwelling on the present 12 year low TSI, I'll pick 4-7.

Stephan

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2018, 07:53:05 PM »
I think the JAXA extent at the end of this year will be around 12.5 M km² which is in the bin 4-7 that I clicked.

Brigantine

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2018, 09:49:23 PM »
2nd or 3rd.

After checking out this post from last freezing season's thread... 2017 already had no ice in the Bering or Okhotsk, and I expect (based on pure guesswork and hunches) up to maybe 2.5 Icelands more ice in Labrador and Barents than at that point in the 2017 season, thus 12.15 i.e. 3rd.

Maybe I would change it slightly if I knew what the Gulf of St Lawrence looked like on 2017-12-31.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2018, 09:56:11 PM by Brigantine »

gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2018, 10:44:33 PM »
2nd or 3rd.
Maybe I would change it slightly if I knew what the Gulf of St Lawrence looked like on 2017-12-31.
St Lawrence gain does not get going until January. Note mask change end oct & end nov.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2018, 11:10:16 PM »
4-7.  Close between this and the next bin, but this is slightly wider.

Phil42

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2018, 11:54:18 AM »
To help deciding, here's the "Juan-Table" of 31st December 2017. I should really read the first post in the future.

2018 has currently a 793'651 km2 higher extent than 2017, ranked 13th.

Since I think that mostly all of the relevant remaining ice formation until the end of this year will be in Baffin, Hudson Bay and Chuckchi (where I don't expect too many surprises), my prediction is that 2018 will be around the 2010's average by the time this year concludes, ranking 4-7 as well.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2018, 12:00:08 PM by Phil42 »

gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2018, 12:41:21 PM »
To make it more difficult to decide .....

on 19th October,
- freeze was 1.003 million km2 less than average (last 10 years), and
- extent was 0.855 million km2 less than the 2010's average.

On 22 November,
- freeze was 0.454 million km2 greater than average (last 10 years), and
- extent was 0.619 million km2 greater than the 2010's average, |(and a mere 84k less than the 2000's average).

On average, on 31st December 80% of extent gain will be done. On 22nd November it was 54%, i.e. on average another circa 2.5 million km2 of extent gain from now to then.

So far this freezing season has been a bit odd. I will wait to see if things settle down a bit.
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litesong

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2018, 07:14:37 PM »
Gee.... I picked a bin with no votes (4-7). But now bin(4-7) has lots of votes. All this voting is making me second guess myself.  ::)

Paddy

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2018, 08:23:12 AM »
I was torn between 3-5 and 4-7, and ulyimstely wrnt for the latter, partly since the former is relatively narrow in  numerical terms (greater than 12.10 and less than 12.34, vs greater than 12.19 and less than 12.47). Honestly, though, I'd not be too surprised by anything between 11.9 and 12.6.

oren

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2018, 12:12:37 PM »
I went for a 6-10 vote, but purely on a hunch and with no regional analysis. I get the feeling the lack of winds from the south will continue, helping the ice grow.

binntho

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2018, 01:14:42 PM »
I went for a 6-10 vote, but purely on a hunch and with no regional analysis. I get the feeling the lack of winds from the south will continue, helping the ice grow.

Well I stuck my neck out earlier and to be consistent I voted for the first bin, 1-2. This is mostly because I expect that warm southerly winds will reassert themselves, and looking at the forecasts this might happen as early as this coming week on the Atlantic front and the following week on the Pacific front. In the meantime the Canadian cold seems to be about to get a sound kicking, first with an above zero southerly into the southern Hudson Bay, and later with a large and well above average warm mass from the east.

gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #13 on: November 24, 2018, 03:13:12 PM »
JAXA daily extent increase 23 November just 42k, NSIDC daily extent down by 20k (just to confuse things).
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litesong

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #14 on: November 24, 2018, 06:39:46 PM »
I was torn between 3-5 and 4-7....
TTOORRNNNN BETWEEN TWO LOVERS..........

litesong

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #15 on: November 24, 2018, 06:49:50 PM »
.....the lack of winds from the south will continue.....
......warm southerly winds will reassert themselves......
Everybody hold their wet fingers in the air...... we'll figger this all out.

gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #16 on: November 25, 2018, 03:58:47 PM »
I went for a 6-10 vote, but purely on a hunch and with no regional analysis. I get the feeling the lack of winds from the south will continue, helping the ice grow.
"no regional analysis"

To ensure confusion reigns, I have put area graphs for all seas (except those which are already full-up ice) on the 2018 sea ice area and extent thread.

Perhaps I will do it again on December 7th.
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oren

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #17 on: November 25, 2018, 07:30:52 PM »
I went for a 6-10 vote, but purely on a hunch and with no regional analysis. I get the feeling the lack of winds from the south will continue, helping the ice grow.
"no regional analysis"

To ensure confusion reigns, I have put area graphs for all seas (except those which are already full-up ice) on the 2018 sea ice area and extent thread.

Perhaps I will do it again on December 7th.
Thanks for that. Admittedly, my favorite source is Wipneus' regional AMSR2 charts. But what I meant was looking at which seas are normally in growth mode by Dec 31st, which are already full (Hudson) and which still empty. Your charts certainly help clarify confusion, rather than enhance it.

gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #18 on: November 29, 2018, 03:30:40 PM »
To continue this series of posts intended to cause confusion, I produced a couple of tables giving possible outcomes of JAXA extent as at 31 12 2018.

They are, of course, amazingly accurate, and can be totally relied upon.

Essentially, these scenarios aim at 12.5 million km2, 9th in the table.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2018, 03:35:44 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #19 on: December 05, 2018, 11:05:31 AM »
I voted 6 to 10.
I would like to change my vote to 2 or 3, but I can't.

The reason is the attached tables, caused by very low extent gain for the last 12 days, and
The attached temp anomaly map that suggests below average extent gain may continue for a few days more.
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Neven

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #20 on: December 05, 2018, 12:04:34 PM »
I voted 6 to 10.
I would like to change my vote to 2 or 3, but I can't.

I've edited the poll. You have two days left to change your vote.
Compare, compare, compare

echoughton

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #21 on: December 05, 2018, 12:50:28 PM »
Where is the poll and exactly what is the poll? Is there a charge?

echoughton

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #22 on: December 05, 2018, 12:51:58 PM »
FOUND IT! Voted 4-7 right in the middle...like me  8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)

gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #23 on: December 05, 2018, 01:06:32 PM »
I voted 6 to 10.
I would like to change my vote to 2 or 3, but I can't.

I've edited the poll. You have two days left to change your vote.
Thanks, Neven
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oren

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #24 on: December 05, 2018, 01:12:00 PM »
I feel stupid to do so, but anyway decided to change from 6-10 to 4-7.

binntho

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #25 on: December 05, 2018, 01:33:31 PM »
Well I'm sticking with number one (and it seems I'm not the only one!). The weather changes in the Atlantic have not been as definite as I expected and the Pacific side is probably not going to hold much longer, but none of the other still-freezing seas are showing any inclination towards gearing up and even HB might be a tad late and not reach 100% until January.

Juan C. García

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #26 on: December 05, 2018, 03:39:28 PM »
Good idea. Thanks for this poll, Steven. I'll go for 3-5.


+1
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #27 on: December 06, 2018, 03:48:15 PM »
Last Post on Jaxa Extent as at 31/12/2018 until 1st Jan (JAXA and/or hangover permitting)

Very low extent gain in December changed things again. IF extent gain from now is average, year end extent will be 12.1 million km2, third lowest, just above 2017 and just below 2010.

Now some suggest that after a period (of nearly 2 weeks) of very low extent gain there must be a bounce back.

Others might say that this 2 weeks of low gain was simply the bounce back from a similar length of very high gains, so no reason to expect above average gains.

Others might say it is simply a crapshoot.
_____________________________________________________
Quote
crapshoot
/ˈkrapʃuːt/Submit
nounNORTH AMERICAN
a game of craps.
INFORMAL
a risky or uncertain matter.
"skiing here can be a bit of a crapshoot at any time"
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litesong

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #28 on: December 06, 2018, 06:32:07 PM »
Others might say it is simply a crapshoot.
Our amateur softball team was playing a tournament in Reno. Not a gambler, I never paid attention to the slots while back&forth to baseball games. Once tho, I saw the team softball wives playing the one-armed bandits. The manager's wife began hitting very little jackpots, while feeding a particular machine one silver at a time. Eventually, she ran out of money & left the machine. I thought about getting a hundred silvers & feeding it 3 silvers at a time. But I had games to get to, so didn't. Later, one of the wives said a guy took over the machine for 24 hours...... & cleared $1200. Oh, well. 
« Last Edit: December 06, 2018, 06:41:02 PM by litesong »

litesong

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #29 on: December 06, 2018, 06:49:13 PM »
I feel stupid to do so, but anyway decided to change from 6-10 to 4-7.
Does that mean I should leave 4-7? I can't make good money if everyone else is sitting on 4-7. You say, this isn't Las Vegas?
« Last Edit: December 08, 2018, 05:21:13 PM by litesong »

Steven

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #30 on: December 06, 2018, 06:56:41 PM »
The poll is closed.  Distribution of the votes:





For comparison, here is a screenshot that I took on Monday 3 December:



Quite some changes in the last few days...

Stephan

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #31 on: December 06, 2018, 07:41:01 PM »
I prefer not to change my opinion, therefore I didn't change my vote (like I also didn't in the poll about the JAXA extent minimum for Sept. 2018).

gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #32 on: December 11, 2018, 11:19:09 AM »
With 21 days to go, this is what Dec 31 extent is looking like at the moment, based on previous years' extent gains.
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jdallen

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #33 on: December 11, 2018, 09:48:13 PM »
With 21 days to go, this is what Dec 31 extent is looking like at the moment, based on previous years' extent gains.
I'm going to be *way* off.  On a hunch, I choose the 8-14 bucket, thinking we might actually have been seeing a stable polar vortex set up.  That would have protected the Arctic from storms - keeping out latent heat as well as permitting more direct radiative loss.

Sadly (for both me and the ice), my hunch was wrong....
This space for Rent.

gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #34 on: December 11, 2018, 10:32:13 PM »
With 21 days to go, this is what Dec 31 extent is looking like at the moment, based on previous years' extent gains.
I'm going to be *way* off.  On a hunch, I choose the 8-14 bucket, thinking we might actually have been seeing a stable polar vortex set up.  That would have protected the Arctic from storms - keeping out latent heat as well as permitting more direct radiative loss.

Sadly (for both me and the ice), my hunch was wrong....
An awful lot can happen in 21 days
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charles_oil

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Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« Reply #35 on: December 12, 2018, 01:40:00 PM »
I voted 2-3, then regretted it but couldn't change, then when I could change -I thought I would hang on ... now who knows !  Will leave the dice where they fell at the start!