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Michael Hauber

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SH Polar Vortex
« on: November 23, 2018, 06:34:28 AM »
Also posted in weird weather thread in consequences.

Furthermore there is a remarkable string of strong low pressure systems belting across Australia and well into the Pacific.  Got some members of the weatherzone forum scratching our heads not sure what to make of it.  The pattern might have implications for ENSO, as I think its part of why a significant WWB is forecast to commence shortly.

I've been doing some hunting around to see if I can explain it as some sort of polar vortex variation.  Due to this forum I know more about the northern polar vortex than the southern which impacts on my weather.  Of course Antarctica hasn't had no real trend towards reducing sea ice, but has had a couple years of fairly low values.  Start of a similar change in SH to what has happened in NH?  Maybe some connection to changes in the Ozone hole....

Does anyone follow the SH polar vortex much and know if anything is going on that might explain part of this weird weather?
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2018, 12:23:45 PM »
Just had a look at the 10HPa winds and that is fecked!

The Years I've had the odd peek at the Vortex ( compare and contrast with the Polar Night Jet over the north?) it has been a robust circular flow right up to the final breakdown for southern Summer.

How can such a form even be stable?

it looks like the Antarctic playing catch up to the North has just taken a lurch toward parity?

The flip of the Pacific Naturals ,back in 2014, coincided with meaningful restoration of the Ozone across the continent and the impacts of both those showed near instant impact on ice extent/area.

It now looks like we are seeing similar behaviours from WAA/cold plunges in the southern Hemisphere as we saw evolve, over the last 20 years. in the North?
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Bugalugs

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Polar vortex expansion vs poleward wind contraction
« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2019, 01:24:47 AM »
I have been trying to determine trends in the southern hemisphere. On the one hand Paul Beckwith says there has been vast expansion of the polar vortex to the point where it crosses the equator.

On the other hand it is said that the the roaring 40s are contracting towards to the south pole.

Are these contracting winds and the expanding vortex two separate issues? Or is the science conflicting?

Bugalugs

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2019, 08:24:39 AM »
Just bumping this, the apparently expanding south polar vortex versus winds contracting towards the pole, I was hoping someone could explain if both things can happen, they seem contradictory.

oren

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2019, 03:38:45 PM »
I don't think Paul Beckwith is a reliable source.

bligh8

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Re: Polar vortex expansion vs poleward wind contraction
« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2019, 04:11:08 PM »
I have been trying to determine trends in the southern hemisphere. On the one hand Paul Beckwith says there has been vast expansion of the polar vortex to the point where it crosses the equator.

On the other hand it is said that the the roaring 40s are contracting towards to the south pole.

Are these contracting winds and the expanding vortex two separate issues? Or is the science conflicting?

Numerous recent papers have documented increasing atmospheric[1-3] and oceanic temperatures[4, 5] across the Antarctic Peninsula and Southern Ocean. Atmospheric air temperatures rose by 2.5°C in the northern Antarctic Peninsula from 1950 to 2000[1]. This is far greater than the global average of 0.6°C per century. This warming may have been ongoing since the 1930s[6]. This environmental change has been linked to an intensification of circumpolar westerlies[7] and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current[8, 9]. A strengthening of the circumpolar vortex results in asynchronous change, with cooling over East Antarctica and warming over West Antarctica[10]. Decreased sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea enhances warming over the western Peninsula and Weddell Sea. At the same time, there has been less snow falling over the south-western Antarctic Peninsula

For a better understanding there's more at:http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/glacier-recession/recent-change/

steve s

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2019, 10:42:54 PM »
Images tell much. The jet varies. (Had to make them links)

First the southern polar jet - the "vortex" - at 10 hpa -- top of the atmosphere July 10,2016:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/07/10/0700Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-110.16,-91.63,314/loc=72.267,-53.020

Second, the more extensive 10 hpa jet July 10, 2019:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/07/10/0700Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-110.16,-91.63,314/loc=-1.100,-49.689

Third, for comparison, Greywolf's Is this real? of November 23, 2018:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/11/23/0800Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-110.16,-91.63,314/loc=138.580,-71.056
« Last Edit: July 14, 2019, 10:47:56 PM by steve s »

Midnightsun

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2019, 11:28:12 PM »
Just bumping this, the apparently expanding south polar vortex versus winds contracting towards the pole, I was hoping someone could explain if both things can happen, they seem contradictory.

Hadley cell expansion/integration.

Bugalugs

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2019, 01:27:42 AM »
Thank you, to quote Bill and Ted, for the most excellent answers.

I glean from this that while there has been westerly wind intensification around the South Pole, and contraction to the pole, there have also been breakdowns in the polar vortex.

Greywolf's link is fascinating, from a layman's POV it looks radical. Has this been observed often before, or is it new in the southern hemisphere? I will go through the Nullschool archive for a look, but would like to hear opinions.

Is Greywolf's observation similar to what is happening to the breakdown in the northern vortex? Or is it apples and oranges?

Lastly, as a Tasmanian, I find the Greywolf image interesting because if that vortex breakdown was at the right (or wrong) place it suggests South Pole weather could be exported in a direct northern line from Antarctica to Tasmania. I see that the phenomenon was observed in early summer. Does this mean summer Antarctic blasts are possibly on the cards, perhaps similar to what happened recently in the USA, causing the great cold spells and Midwest floods? Or am I extrapolating too much?
« Last Edit: July 16, 2019, 01:33:56 AM by Bugalugs »

Human Habitat Index

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2019, 01:46:45 AM »
I don't think Paul Beckwith is a reliable source.

why ?
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Bugalugs

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2019, 03:15:32 AM »
Further to this, I've been through nullschool back to 2014 when the data ends, there does seem to be great annual variation in the southern vortex. I suppose the question is whether this has always been the case, or is it changing more radically?


oren

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2019, 11:58:06 AM »
I don't think Paul Beckwith is a reliable source.

why ?
I am far from being an authority on such matters, but a quick search gave me the feeling that he is an "embellisher" that will overplay the science. But I haven't done much research on this.

Human Habitat Index

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2019, 12:19:21 PM »
I don't think Paul Beckwith is a reliable source.

why ?
I am far from being an authority on such matters, but a quick search gave me the feeling that he is an "embellisher" that will overplay the science. But I haven't done much research on this.

Check out his videos, they are evidence based.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

El Cid

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #13 on: July 16, 2019, 01:56:04 PM »
Paul Beckwith is obviously a lunatic, it is enough to watch just one of his videos to understand that

Neven

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #14 on: July 16, 2019, 04:27:28 PM »
I prefer oren's description. I'm sure Paul Beckwith means well, but my impression is also that he tends to go overboard. I'm also not sure if he has ever addressed the point that he has erroneously forecast a BOE several years in a row.
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Ranman99

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2019, 11:00:04 AM »
What I respect the most is that Paul has put his career on the line (and paid a heavy price) and for the most part just explains the data. If there is alarm in his tone then it matches mine. I respect all of us that have put our careers on the line to get this message out.

I have watched all of his vids from start to finish over perhaps the last two years. They are fine for the most part. He tailors what he says with the data and anyone who says some of the things I have just read need to a harder look that is the bottom line.

In the not too distant future I will leverage my 19,000 plus LinkedIn connections to communicate this message and in effect also put my own end of career on the line.

I have shared a bit but it is not safe for me to go balls to the wall at this time. One thing that I do is share this site with many that I encounter that want to review the facts that they can't get on the mainstream media.

When I do begin to publicize in a bigger way I will be happy to advertise for any and all that want to get a bigger footprint on their message. Maybe even arrange some televised events using my contacts and invite Paul and others to some debates on the topic. Maybe even bring in Jordan Peterson he always draws a crowd and has weighed in on the topic. There are some that think Peterson is a looney but I would not want to debate him ;-)

We are in a very serious situation boys and girls and we all know there are better ways to do it than what we are seeing in the main stream media today. Open dialogue with truth and facts would be nice.  Wherever folks seem to by trying to do that publicly demands our support. The rate of change is exponential we all know that. WE ALL KNOW THE SCORE. My 15 year old daughter knows the score. Her friends know the score.

So what do we do. We get Paul's email address and we engage him and we question anything that does not make sense and we help him and others where we can.

Fuck.

Ok that was a very lightweight rant  :P
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FishOutofWater

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2019, 06:03:32 PM »
The SH polar vortex has been impacted by the loss of ozone in the upper stratosphere, especially in the early spring. Cooling at high levels by the loss of ozone caused a tightening of the vortex and may also be causing instabilities such as sudden stratospheric warmings which are not common events in the SH.

For more details you need to read papers and reports by actual meteorologists. Paul Beckwith is not a good information source for Antarctic meteorology. The combined effects of ocean heating and ozone loss are affecting Antarctic weather, but it's very complicated because it also involves ocean currents, fresh water layers and deep convection of cold salty water. Hansen's papers get into some of the complexities of climate change in Antarctic waters. Hansen is a legitimate expert on atmospheric physics.

Bugalugs

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #17 on: July 19, 2019, 12:23:51 AM »
Thanks FOW, I'll look into Hansen's SH work.

My concern re the SH vortex etc is mainly to do with the future of wind and fire in Tasmania. I read that the roaring 40s were heading south, but as a resident I have not perceived any drop in the wind in my eight years here, more like the opposite. The wind might be less consistent, but when it hits it packs a punch. I have been through tropical cyclones and it blows here like a Category One at times. Add fire and you can understand my concern.

I guess BOM records would reveal the trend and I will check them.

Tasmania has always had bad fires, but the drying trend here in summer, and the extra heat and evaporation, and wind, makes me think the island could become a wildfire centre, at least until the forests are burned down into bush or grassland from repeated fires.

There has already been a marked drying trend on Tasmania's west coast, which I assume means something has happened to the trade wind, or the moisture in the wind.

That said, Tassie is still a darn nice place to be. It's just those two or three months of summer that are a worry, given what we are seeing elsewhere re worsening fires.

I am also curious if the changing SH vortex has implications for Australia's weather, will there be future rain events like the USA's Midwest experienced? It does appear that SH ice is here for the longer term, the action for now is in the Arctic.

« Last Edit: July 19, 2019, 04:04:57 PM by Bugalugs »

FishOutofWater

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Re: SH Polar Vortex
« Reply #18 on: July 19, 2019, 03:40:14 AM »
I think that your concerns about fire are justified. Places with Mediterranean climates have fire problems that have gone from bad to worse. Spain and Greece, California and Australia have all had extreme fire storms in recent years that are worse than they used to be because of warmer and drier weather.