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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1450 on: July 04, 2019, 02:30:50 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1451 on: July 04, 2019, 02:46:49 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,602,187  km2
                        
Total Area         
 6,602,187    km2      
-430,037    km2   <   2010's average.
-423,206    k   <   2018
-1,006,288    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -127    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -18    k   loss
Central Seas__   -90    k   loss
Other Seas___   -18    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -19    k   loss
CAA_________    8    k   gain
East Siberian__   -22    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -14    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -16    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -27    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -15    k   loss

Area loss 127 k, 35 k MORE than the 2010's average loss of 92 k on this day.

Total area 2nd lowest[/b], 196 k LESS than 2016, and 117k greater than 2012
(RIP 2010. 2010 is now another dead soldier fallen by the wayside on the retreat from Moscow). 

2012 is the front runner as regards area again.

Other Stuff
Weather
A messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow and very slightly lower temperature range of +0.6 to +1.4 degrees celsius. with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, while Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS.
By Friday Alaska and the far Eastern Siberian Chukotka Autonomous Okrug warm up and stay really warm.

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still shows southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait, but not as strong. This combined with warmth is impacting the Chukchi and the Beaufort and the ESS. Today's area losses in those seas seem to confirm this. But the CAA stays in the hiatus and gains area for second day. After 5 days the winds are still southerly, but looking more like a light breeze?

This 5 day outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic. This wind stays West (looking it from a Russian view) of the island chain stretching from the Russian shore at Ostrov Bol'shevik via Franz Josef Land and Svalbard to the NE corner of Greenland and then down the East coast of Greenland. i.e. likely to help clear out the Kara and Barents and shovel ice into the Greenland Sea to die. 

I don't see it significantly pulling ice towards the North Atlantic from the CAB. Indeed the high in the middle of the CAB may send ice north of Greenland from East to West towards the Lincoln Sea, and then heading across towards the Russian shore. Much of the central arctic also looking very dry. The Kara and the Barents seas are losing ice area, and on this day also the Greenland Sea. Ice heading South to die
After 5 days it looks like the high pressure moves a bit east and south towards Russia. The main wind strength is then sending ice from the Laptev to the Kara.

A complicated picture inadequately described above. Can't do that every day

A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last week, and moderated a bit and now going up again. Being a five day trailing average, above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum.

If this rate of loss is continued, in about a week 2019 NSIDC 5 day Area could/would/should/will/will not (delete as applicable) be in pole position (briefly?) again.
________________________________________________________________________
Note: Century breaks are not a cliff at this time of year.
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Sambuccu

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1452 on: July 04, 2019, 02:56:00 PM »
NSIDC area appears to now be the lowest on record:

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

It's slightly under 2012, indeed.
07.03.2012 : 6.321Mkm2.
07.03.2019 : 6.312Mkm2.

Next days will be interesting, because 2012 had a slow pace of decrease in area :
07.04 : 6.256
07.05 : 6.164
07.06 : 6.137
07.07 : 6.086
07.08 : 5.986

Only a bit more than 300k in 5 days.

Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1453 on: July 04, 2019, 02:58:23 PM »
Compactness now also lowest on record:
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1454 on: July 04, 2019, 02:59:20 PM »
NSIDC area appears to now be the lowest on record:

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/
I guess Tealight is using one day daily data while I use 5 day trailing average, 2-3 days behind, which is around 300k at this time of year. The regional sea area files provided by NSIDC at https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ are all 5 day data.

I stick with NSIDC for area in total and by individual sea for consistency.

The data does show how 2019, 2012 and 2016 are in a very narrow band so far.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1455 on: July 04, 2019, 03:40:22 PM »
3 seas that can't take the heat from the Pacific, while the CAB looks very average.

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jdallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1456 on: July 04, 2019, 08:49:35 PM »
Compactness now also lowest on record:
Ironic, considering some of the discussions around dispersion and 2019's supposed lack thereof...
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jdallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1457 on: July 04, 2019, 08:52:40 PM »
NSIDC area appears to now be the lowest on record:

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/
I guess Tealight is using one day daily data while I use 5 day trailing average, 2-3 days behind, which is around 300k at this time of year. The regional sea area files provided by NSIDC at https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ are all 5 day data.

I stick with NSIDC for area in total and by individual sea for consistency.

The data does show how 2019, 2012 and 2016 are in a very narrow band so far.
I prefer 5 day data as well, as it reduces noise from volatility and I think is better at illuminating trends.

That all three years are in such a narrow band is very indicative in itself, and quite alarming.
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magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1458 on: July 04, 2019, 10:05:59 PM »
am i the only one who thinks that i cannot be a coincidence that several time each year, around special events like extent falling below 2012/2016, minima, maxima or other extremes, some of the data providers stop delivering.

certainly many here have been eager to see today's chart of this website:

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

and BINGO, no data for the umpteenth time. especially the japanese are world leaders in the battle for position one in non-delivering when it starts to be interesting.

Peter Ellis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1459 on: July 04, 2019, 10:14:45 PM »
am i the only one who thinks that i cannot be a coincidence that several time each year, around special events like extent falling below 2012/2016, minima, maxima or other extremes, some of the data providers stop delivering.
Probably not, there's a lot of nutters out there.

https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/016/146/eird-al-yankovic-tin-foil-hat-160x160.jpg

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1460 on: July 04, 2019, 10:24:06 PM »
am i the only one who thinks that i cannot be a coincidence that several time each year, around special events like extent falling below 2012/2016, minima, maxima or other extremes, some of the data providers stop delivering.
Probably not, there's a lot of nutters out there.

https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/016/146/eird-al-yankovic-tin-foil-hat-160x160.jpg
It is a fiendish plot.
But who are the fiends?
What is their cunning plan?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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ajouis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1461 on: July 04, 2019, 10:27:24 PM »
am i the only one who thinks that i cannot be a coincidence that several time each year, around special events like extent falling below 2012/2016, minima, maxima or other extremes, some of the data providers stop delivering.

certainly many here have been eager to see today's chart of this website:

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

and BINGO, no data for the umpteenth time. especially the japanese are world leaders in the battle for position one in non-delivering when it starts to be interesting.
Probably more due to both increased demand that can crash the servers and more errors because of the extra melt that can compromise the data temporarily. Also, many of the systems are getting old and not a huge budget, so that doesn t help.

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1462 on: July 04, 2019, 11:02:53 PM »
am i the only one who thinks that i cannot be a coincidence that several time each year, around special events like extent falling below 2012/2016, minima, maxima or other extremes, some of the data providers stop delivering.
Probably not, there's a lot of nutters out there.

https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/016/146/eird-al-yankovic-tin-foil-hat-160x160.jpg
It is a fiendish plot.
But who are the fiends?
What is their cunning plan?

i have no clue "gero" which is why i bring it up. i have thoughts about it since many years and yesterday after that dive below important lines i was sooo.....curious to look today and "BANG"
it happened again.

if i had a clue i'd say so and the only thoughts i have are too far fetched to seriously utter them in a place like this, perhaps with good friends over a beer (and after a few beer LOL )

P-maker

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1463 on: July 04, 2019, 11:32:15 PM »
Isn't it quite obvious?

National pride plays a big role here. Those countries, which can afford expensive satellite programs, have a huge interest in flagging their wealth. Thus, whenever there is something interesting coming out of the constant stream of satelitte images, the "ministry" has to be informed. The typical reaction in return is to "hold your horses" until the minister has got his 5 minutes of fame on the local/national news. In my view, it is as simple as that.

bbr2314

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1464 on: July 04, 2019, 11:46:18 PM »
Isn't it quite obvious?

National pride plays a big role here. Those countries, which can afford expensive satellite programs, have a huge interest in flagging their wealth. Thus, whenever there is something interesting coming out of the constant stream of satelitte images, the "ministry" has to be informed. The typical reaction in return is to "hold your horses" until the minister has got his 5 minutes of fame on the local/national news. In my view, it is as simple as that.
There is no conspiracy. The only people who care about these numbers are posting on these forums. Or at least 90% of them are. This is 99.99999% likely to be a random hiccup caused by an inattentive or incompetent government employee.

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1465 on: July 05, 2019, 03:45:32 AM »
Isn't it quite obvious?

National pride plays a big role here. Those countries, which can afford expensive satellite programs, have a huge interest in flagging their wealth. Thus, whenever there is something interesting coming out of the constant stream of satelitte images, the "ministry" has to be informed. The typical reaction in return is to "hold your horses" until the minister has got his 5 minutes of fame on the local/national news. In my view, it is as simple as that.
There is no conspiracy. The only people who care about these numbers are posting on these forums. Or at least 90% of them are. This is 99.99999% likely to be a random hiccup caused by an inattentive or incompetent government employee.

that's exactly the problem, as a person in general i agree with your take on it but there is a saying here that 1 random hiccup happens, 2 random hiccups of the same kind are bad luck, 3 random hiccups of the same kind are suspicious and even more random hickups of the same kind are not random anymore and hence most probably no hickups

this what i brought up here happens 2-3 times per years since about 4-5 years and that's a LOT OF Randomness.

still possible which is why i didn't take it there but suspicious it is for sure and certainly and as usual you 're off with your extreme 99.99999999% statement. that's almost the only thing i'm sure about because i do statistics all my life LOL and this is way less then 99.9999% certain to be random hickups.

FishOutofWater

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1466 on: July 05, 2019, 03:54:34 AM »
Clearly, the Japanese were celebrating the 4th of July.

Snark, aside days without reports are so common that conspiracy theories lack credence (without solid evidence).

bbr2314

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1467 on: July 05, 2019, 05:40:38 AM »
Jaxa was -100K 7/3 and -80K 7/4, we are tied for lowest with 2016.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1468 on: July 05, 2019, 05:45:36 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
July 3rd, 2019:
     8,677,207 km2, a century drop of -105,779 km2.
     [I haven't made the numbers, but probably 2019 was the lowest on record.]

July 4th, 2019:
     8,601,738 km2, a drop of -75,469 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1469 on: July 05, 2019, 05:53:46 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
July 3rd, 2019:
     8,677,207 km2, a century drop of -105,779 km2.
     [I haven't made the numbers, but probably 2019 was the lowest on record.]

PS: No, On July 3rd: 2019 was second lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1470 on: July 05, 2019, 06:11:47 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  8,601,738 km2(July 4, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 75 k, 9 k less than the average loss on this day of 84 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 5,669 k, 265 k (4.9%) greater than the average of 5,404 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 54.7% of the melting season done, with 71 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.13 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 0.95 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.15 million km2, also 4th lowest, and 0.97 million km2 above 2012.

The first 4 days in July have a mixed picture. Not so much a cliff, more a bumpy steep slope.

Other Stuff
Weather
A messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow temperature anomaly range of +0.7 to +1.4 degrees celsius. with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, while Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS.
By Sunday Alaska and the far Eastern Siberian Chukotka Autonomous Okrug really warm.

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still shows southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait, but not as strong. This combined with warmth is impacting the Chukchi and the Beaufort and the ESS. After 5 days the winds are still southerly, but looking more like a light breeze?

This 5 day outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic. This wind stays West (looking it from a Russian view) of the island chain stretching from the Russian shore at Ostrov Bol'shevik via Franz Josef Land and Svalbard to the NE corner of Greenland and then down the East coast of Greenland. i.e. likely to help clear out the Kara and Barents and shovel ice into the Greenland Sea to die. 

I don't see it significantly pulling ice towards the North Atlantic from the CAB. Indeed the high in the middle of the CAB may send ice north of Greenland from East to West towards the Lincoln Sea, and then heading across towards the central Arctic Ocean to the Russian shore. The main wind strength is then sending ice from the Laptev to the Kara.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

We are now in the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Extent loss on this day just below average.
_____________________________________________________________________
Tealight's AMSR2 volume and thickness data for June is bad enough to frighten the horses. Will we get PIOMAS volume data for June today? It will be interesting to see if this backs up Tealight's analysis. If yes, what has happened to volume and from that, perhaps more importantly, thickness during June must be a factor in guesstimating the 2019 minimum.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2019, 10:27:05 AM by gerontocrat »
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Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1471 on: July 05, 2019, 10:31:15 AM »
magnamentis, I would appreciate it if you refrain from dumping on PIOMAS, ADS-NIPR, etc. These interruptions in daily data reporting are very annoying, but there's no hidden agenda.
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be cause

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1472 on: July 05, 2019, 11:00:11 AM »
I've always thought Magnamentis had a hidden agenda ... b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1473 on: July 05, 2019, 11:21:18 AM »
Both the NSIDC and JAXA satellites have wobbly orbits and instruments that must be checked and recalibrated if necessary.

Hence the odd maintenance day. I start to worry when they are down for more than one day, the worry increasing exponentially as each day passes.
Why worry?
Fiendish plots? No.
Hidden Agendas? No.

The satellites are old, beyond their design life.The NSIDC satellite is VERY old.
Replacements are years away.
If they break down we, and everyone else, are stuffed.

See satellite news @
 https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2750.msg205984.html#msg205984

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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1474 on: July 05, 2019, 02:56:34 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,465,917  km2
                        
Total Area         
 6,465,917    km2      
-457,050    km2   <   2010's average.
-414,095    k   <   2018
-1,037,401    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -136    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -11    k   loss
Central Seas__   -111    k   loss
Other Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -26    k   loss
CAA_________    9    k   gain
East Siberian__   -25    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -18    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -19    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Chukchi______   -24    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -13    k   loss

Area loss 136 k, 27 k MORE than the 2010's average loss of 109 k on this day.

Total area 2nd lowest[/b], 234 k LESS than 2016, and 71k greater than 2012

2012 is the front runner as regards area again, but 2019 playing catch-up, slowly.

Other Stuff
Weather
A messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow temperature anomaly range of +0.7 to +1.4 degrees celsius. with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, while Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS.
By Sunday Alaska and the far Eastern Siberian Chukotka Autonomous Okrug really warm to HOT.

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still shows southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait, but not strong. This combined with warmth is impacting the Chukchi and the Beaufort and the ESS. After 5 days the winds are still southerly, but looking more like a light breeze? Area losses in these seas continue to be impressive

This 5 day outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic. This wind stays West (looking it from a Russian view) of the island chain stretching from the Russian shore at Ostrov Bol'shevik via Franz Josef Land and Svalbard to the NE corner of Greenland and then down the East coast of Greenland The Kara and the Barents seas are losing ice area, as is now the Laptev. On this day the Greenland Sea change was zero.. Ice heading South to die

Indeed the high in the middle of the CAB may send ice from East to West towards the Lincoln Sea north of Greenland , and then heading across towards the central Arctic Ocean to the Russian shore. As time progresses it looks like the high pressure if anything moves a bit east and south towards Russia. The main wind strength is then sending ice from the Laptev to the Kara.

A complicated picture inadequately described above. The GFS 5 day wind outlook shows the above really well. The gif from Aluminium on the melting thread shows the whole Arctic Ocean icepack rotating several degrees clockwise over the last few days.


A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last week, and moderated a bit and now going up again to well above average. Being a five day trailing average, above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum. A steep downward slope, separating 2019 from 2016.

If this rate of loss is continued, in less than a week 2019 NSIDC 5 day Area could/would/should/will/will not (delete as applicable) be in pole position (briefly?) again.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1475 on: July 05, 2019, 03:08:41 PM »
Clearly, the Japanese were celebrating the 4th of July.

Snark, aside days without reports are so common that conspiracy theories lack credence (without solid evidence).

nice thought about "Independence Day" who knows how far their A-TREAT goes.

please keep in mind that i asked a question to hear what others think and as BBR stated initially and as i replied, in general i think alike, it's the correlation between event and events ;)

after i got my replies by now, i for one am done with this topic that became a bit OT over the last day.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2019, 04:52:12 PM by magnamentis »

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1476 on: July 05, 2019, 03:48:11 PM »
NSIDC daily extent data

Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1477 on: July 05, 2019, 04:20:34 PM »
Compactness now also lowest on record:
Ironic, considering some of the discussions around dispersion and 2019's supposed lack thereof...

Yes, well, it's quite possible that compactness is so low predominantly because of melt ponds, rather than dispersion.

Either way, compactness has dipped some lower today, into uncharted territory (extent dropped around 84K, but area had a drop of almost 140K):
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Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1478 on: July 05, 2019, 04:44:57 PM »
Something’s gotta give.
In any case, expect 4 days more of crazy drops in the Pacific side, especially Chukchi (will be biting CAB soon) and ESS again.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1479 on: July 05, 2019, 05:15:35 PM »
Excellent observation from Gerontocrat about the clockwise rotation of the pack. Amazing what can take place when the winds are working in unison.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1480 on: July 05, 2019, 07:24:39 PM »
Clearly, the Japanese were celebrating the 4th of July.

Snark, aside days without reports are so common that conspiracy theories lack credence (without solid evidence).

I usually go for the cock-up theory over the conspiracy theory;. Entropy over organisation..

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1481 on: July 05, 2019, 08:45:30 PM »
I took the monthly extent value for June 2019 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average June extent is now 11,58 M km². June 2019 had an average extent of 10,53 M km², which is 1,05 M km² less than that average.
In June 2019 the difference to the red linear trend line has slightly decreased to +0,10 M km² (compared to May 2019; calculated from the trend line this June should have been at 10,43 M km²) and again (like many other months before except for April 2019 and October 2018) above it. To get again close to that long-term trend line July 2019 will need a "cliff" which I will not forecast at this time.
The slope of the overall trend line has not changed in comparison with April or May 2019.

See attached graph.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1482 on: July 05, 2019, 09:03:27 PM »
Compactness now also lowest on record:
Ironic, considering some of the discussions around dispersion and 2019's supposed lack thereof...

Yes, well, it's quite possible that compactness is so low predominantly because of melt ponds, rather than dispersion.

Either way, compactness has dipped some lower today, into uncharted territory (extent dropped around 84K, but area had a drop of almost 140K):

Whether melt or dispersion, with area now a close 2nd to 2012, we're screwed either way. 2nd half of the melt season is going to be interesting.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1483 on: July 05, 2019, 09:50:04 PM »
Compactness now also lowest on record:
Ironic, considering some of the discussions around dispersion and 2019's supposed lack thereof...

Yes, well, it's quite possible that compactness is so low predominantly because of melt ponds, rather than dispersion.

Either way, compactness has dipped some lower today, into uncharted territory (extent dropped around 84K, but area had a drop of almost 140K):

Whether melt or dispersion, with area now a close 2nd to 2012, we're screwed either way. 2nd half of the melt season is going to be interesting.

$64 question - does 2019 keep up enough during 2012's "dive" period to still be in striking distance of the record come August.
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Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1484 on: July 05, 2019, 10:04:20 PM »
Back on June 28th I was playing around and figured 2019 JAXA extent would have a chance to be in record territory on July 3rd or 4th.  Rounding to only one decimal point, '19 is tied w/ '16 as of July 4th, but on the graph it shows '19 slightly above '16. But I'll take it! Problem is since I didn't post, I can't prove I made the prediction, therefore... fun with numbers.

JAXA extent changes needed as daily average to get into record territory.
(The 5th, 6th and 7th are vs. '16 while the 8th and 9th are vs. '12.)

7/5:   -115k
7/6:   -105k avg
7/7:   - 85k avg
7/8:   - 87k avg ('12)
7/9:   -100k avg

This seems very doable. With '12 starting at +70k and having one low -50k day, despite -140 and -150 days, it keeps things very much within reach for 2019 for these 5 days.

Here are the average losses for the three lowest Sept. extent years over those same five days:

'07: -110k, -105k, -100k, -102.5k, -102k
'16: -110k, -100k, -83.33k, -82.5k, -82k
'12: -110k, - 125k, -100k, -102.5k, -112k

Given the heat in the Arctic right now, though above comments indicate that may settle down beginning around the 10th, it seems like there's a good likelihood of more record days for 2019. I'll call at least the 7th and 8th, just for fun, but see a better than 50% chance of 4 of the next 5 days being in record territory. If there's any significant differential for the 7th and 8th, then the 9th and even the 10th seem likely to be records, too.

Fun with numbers!

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1485 on: July 05, 2019, 10:06:07 PM »
I do think we need to hold onto the fact that this is not the 2012 pack?

The move toward an ice free basin did not stop in 2012 and those conditions ( thinner ice,younger ice,smaller floes,early open waters, warmer ice) have continued to evolve in the intervening period?

I tend to think the same energy , mirroring 2012, over the basin today would lead to greater losses from the current basin ice?

'Dodged a cannonball ' could have been 50cm of ice over a wide area of the basin?.

Could today's melt season have already imparted the energy to shift that 50cm?
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magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1486 on: July 05, 2019, 10:17:20 PM »
I do think we need to hold onto the fact that this is not the 2012 pack?

The move toward an ice free basin did not stop in 2012 and those conditions ( thinner ice,younger ice,smaller floes,early open waters, warmer ice) have continued to evolve in the intervening period?

I tend to think the same energy , mirroring 2012, over the basin today would lead to greater losses from the current basin ice?

'Dodged a cannonball ' could have been 50cm of ice over a wide area of the basin?.

Could today's melt season have already imparted the energy to shift that 50cm?

+1 great analysis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1487 on: July 05, 2019, 10:20:11 PM »
In my JAXA Extent spreadsheet I keep a table of daily changes for the years of major interest
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1488 on: July 05, 2019, 10:22:24 PM »
Whether melt or dispersion, with area now a close 2nd to 2012, we're screwed either way. 2nd half of the melt season is going to be interesting.

2019 is already below 2012 for the SIA daily data: 6.174 vs 6.256 million km2.
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1489 on: July 05, 2019, 11:26:17 PM »
For the nitpickers amongst us, (you know who you/we are  :) ), there is an odd bug in or between the NSIDC sea ice news concentration map and the same data displayed in Charctic.

If you bring up just 2019 and 2012 on Charctic, it should match the other one, but it doesn't.

I sent a little note to NSIDC and they are looking into it.

I also sent some suggestions, so we will see. They have always been very responsive.

Cheers,

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1490 on: July 06, 2019, 05:45:58 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 5th, 2019:
     8,524,993 km2, a drop of -76,745 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1491 on: July 06, 2019, 08:00:47 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  8,524,993 km2(July 5, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 77 k, 14 k less than the average loss on this day of 91 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 5,746 k, 251 k (4.6%) greater than the average of 5,495 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 55.6% of the melting season done, with 70 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.14 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 0.96 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.16 million km2, also 4th lowest, and 0.98 million km2 above 2012.

The first 5 days in July have a mixed picture.

Other Stuff
Weather
GFS showing slightly lower temperature anomalies in a narrow temperature anomaly range of +0.6 to +1.3 degrees celsius. with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, while Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
Alaska and Eastern Siberian  really warm, but cooling after a week or so.
Central Siberia and Western Siberia with alternating periods of warmth and cold.

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still shows southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait, but not strong. This combined with warmth is impacting the Chukchi and the Beaufort and the ESS.

This 5 day outlook no longer shows persistent and strong winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic. I don't see it significantly pulling ice towards the North Atlantic from the CAB. Indeed the high in the middle of the CAB may send ice north of Greenland from East to West towards the Lincoln Sea, and then heading across towards the central Arctic Ocean to the Russian shore and then sending ice from the Laptev to the Kara.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

We are now in the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Extent loss on this day somewhat below average.
_____________________________________________________________________
Tealight's AMSR2 volume and thickness data for June is bad enough to frighten the horses.

We got PIOMAS volume data for June today. A quick look says it backs up Tealight's analysis.

What has happened to volume and from that, perhaps more importantly, thickness during June must be a factor in guesstimating the 2019 minimum. So much for my Saturday morning.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1492 on: July 06, 2019, 03:36:38 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,334,647 km2
                        
Total Area         
 6,334,647    km2      
-475,676    km2   <   2010's average.
-425,407    k   <   2018
-1,072,793    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -131    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -17    k   loss
Central Seas__   -96    k   loss
Other Seas___   -18    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -7    k   loss
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -21    k   loss
CAA_________    10    k   gain
East Siberian__   -19    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -25    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -15    k   loss
Laptev_______   -12    k   loss
Chukchi______   -14    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -16    k   loss

Area loss 131 k, 22 k MORE than the 2010's average loss of 109 k on this day.

Total area 2nd lowest[/b], 243 k LESS than 2016, and a mere 34k greater than 2012

2012 is the front runner as regards area again, but 2019 playing catch-up.

Other Stuff
Weather
GFS showing slightly lower temperature anomalies in a narrow temperature anomaly range of +0.6 to +1.3 degrees celsius. with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, while Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
Alaska and Eastern Siberian really warm, but cooling after a week or so.
Central Siberia and Western Siberia with alternating periods of warmth and cold.

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still shows southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait, but not strong. This combined with warmth is continuing to impact the Chukchi and the Beaufort and the ESS with area losses.

This 5 day outlook no longer shows persistent and strong winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic. I don't see it significantly pulling ice towards the North Atlantic from the CAB. Indeed the high in the middle of the CAB may send ice north of Greenland from East to West towards the Lincoln Sea, and then heading across towards the central Arctic Ocean to the Russian shore and then sending ice from the Laptev to the Kara.
The entire Atlantic Front - Laptev, Kara, Barents and Greenland Seas - lost area on this day

A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last week, and moderated a bit and now going up again to well above average. Being a five day trailing average, above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum. A steep downward slope, separating 2019 from 2016.

If this rate of loss is continued, in a day or two 2019 NSIDC 5 day Area could/would/should/will/will not (delete as applicable) be in pole position (briefly, for about a week?) again.
________________________________________________________________________
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1493 on: July 06, 2019, 05:08:29 PM »
How likely do you think 2019 is to win, place or show? 95%?
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1494 on: July 06, 2019, 06:10:08 PM »
NSIDC area (5-day average) had 802k loss for 7 days. This rate of loss is enough to reach zero in 63 days (August 30).
A week later: 865k loss, 51 day before zero time (August 25). The nosedive continues.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1495 on: July 06, 2019, 06:46:10 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1496 on: July 07, 2019, 05:50:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 6th, 2019:
     8,410,624 km2, a century drop of -114,369 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1497 on: July 07, 2019, 08:16:49 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  8,410,624 km2(July 6, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 114 k, 22 k more than the average loss on this day of 92 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 5,860 k, 273 k (4.9%) greater than the average of 5,587 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 56.5% of the melting season done, with 69 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.14 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 0.94 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.13 million km2, also 4th lowest, and 0.95 million km2 above 2012.

The first 5 days in July have a mixed picture.

Other Stuff
Weather
GFS over the next 7 days showing temperature anomalies in a narrow temperature anomaly range of +0.7 to +1.5 degrees celsius, and in the three d
days after that down to +0.1.

In those first 7 days
- over the Arctic Ocean itself temperatures a bit above average,
the CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm,
- Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
- Alaska and Eastern Siberian  really warm,
- Central Siberia and Western Siberia mostly cold.
After a week or so the pattern mostly the same but everything a bit cooler.

The winds described in previous posts seem to have mostly faded away, apart from strongish winds along the Russia shore from the Laptev to the Kara.

Area Loss Outlook
We are now in the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Extent loss on this day well above average. Future losses will be ? ?
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1498 on: July 07, 2019, 02:18:59 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,214,550 km2
                        
Total Area         
 6,214,550    km2      
-491,933    km2   <   2010's average.
-418,348    k   <   2018
-1,120,920    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -120    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -19    k   loss
Central Seas__   -89    k   loss
Other Seas___   -12    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -16    k   loss
CAA_________    9    k   gain
East Siberian__   -16    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -34    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss

Area loss 120 k, 7k more than the 2010's average loss of 113 k on this day.

Total area Lowest, 252 k LESS than 2016, and a mere 29 k less than 2012

2019 is the front runner as regards area again, but for how long?

Other Stuff
Weather
GFS over the next 7 days showing temperature anomalies in a narrow temperature anomaly range of +0.7 to +1.5 degrees celsius, and in the three days after that down to +0.1.

In those first 7 days
- over the Arctic Ocean itself temperatures a bit above average,
the CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm,
- Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
- Alaska and Eastern Siberian  really warm,
- Central Siberia and Western Siberia mostly cold.
After a week or so the pattern mostly the same but everything a bit cooler.

The winds described in previous posts seem to have mostly faded away, apart from strongish winds along the Russia shore from the Laptev to the Kara.

A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last 10 days. Being a five day trailing average, above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum. A steep downward slope, separating 2019 from 2016 and now from 2012.

NSIDC 5 day Area could/would/should/will/will-not continue in pole position for about one week/two weeks/the rest of July/the entire remaining melt season (delete as applicable).
________________________________________________________________________
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Steven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1499 on: July 07, 2019, 02:21:28 PM »
NSIDC daily area is currently the lowest on record for this date:




(Note:  data from Wipneus.  He uses leap year corrections for the anomaly data.)