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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #150 on: February 04, 2019, 06:43:54 PM »
ps: I am looking forward to March when Neven has to decide when to open the 2019 melting thread, and is bombarded with unwanted advice and demands from all sides as daily extent change wobbles around above and below zero.

When did you stop beating your wife?

Never.

I divorced her (or did she divorce me? ) in the early 1990's. Neven is not really an adequate substitute but in the absence of a wife this misogynist can only use that that is available to hand.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #151 on: February 04, 2019, 09:01:44 PM »
ps: I am looking forward to March when Neven has to decide when to open the 2019 melting thread, and is bombarded with unwanted advice and demands from all sides as daily extent change wobbles around above and below zero.

Yes, that's my favourite time of year!  ;D

Then we can start it on the beginning of February!
Who bets that 13,499,512 km2 on Jan 30th is the max?  ;)   ;D
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #152 on: February 05, 2019, 05:30:20 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 4th, 2019:
     13,433,729 km2, an increase of only 5,337 km2.
     2019 is the 4th lowest on record.
PS: 2010 has not official value. Average used.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #153 on: February 05, 2019, 07:46:10 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,433,729 km2(February 4, 2019)

- Extent gain 5k, 13k less than average gain of 18 k on this day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 227 k (2.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 92.4 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 35 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.10 million km2 (220k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 13.97 million km2, (90k >2017). This is in contrast with using a polynomial trend line projection, which produces a max of around 13.50 million km2 on the 8th February - now that would be a surprise.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #154 on: February 05, 2019, 02:17:03 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,399,649  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,399,649    km2      
 31,751    km2   >    2010's average.
 124,897    k   >   2018
-436,799    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain   -32    k   
Peripheral Seas   -21    k   loss
Central Seas__   -12    k   loss
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -11    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Area LOSS 32 k, 70k less than the 2010's average gain of 38k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  As you can see from the last table, all the peripheral seas lost area on this day (and the 2 days before that).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #155 on: February 05, 2019, 09:54:24 PM »
Slight losses almost everywhere. Did that missing ice sink in the end?   ;)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #156 on: February 06, 2019, 04:59:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 5th, 2019:
     13,441,866 km2, an increase of only 8,137 km2.
     2019 is now the 3rd lowest on record.
PS: 2010 has not official value. Average used.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2019, 05:07:17 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #157 on: February 06, 2019, 09:07:36 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,441,866 km2(February 5, 2019)

- Extent gain 8k, 1k less than average gain of 9 k on this day.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 228 k (2.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 92.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 34 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.10 million km2 (220k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 13.96 million km2, (80k >2017). This is in contrast with using a polynomial trend line projection, which produces a max of just under 13.50 million km2 on about the 8th February - now that would be a surprise.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #158 on: February 06, 2019, 02:27:15 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,386,294 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,386,294    km2      
-7,262    km2   <    2010's average.
 67,396    k   >   2018
-471,486    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain   -13    k loss
   
Peripheral Seas   -20    k   loss
Central Seas__   -10    k   loss
Other Seas___    17    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -11    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___    12    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area LOSS 13 k, 39k less than the 2010's average gain of 26k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  As you can see from the last table, all the peripheral seas on the  Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay lost area on this day (and the 3 days before that).

In contrast, the Okhotsk and St Lawrence are now gaining area strongly.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #159 on: February 06, 2019, 03:39:16 PM »
Some area graphs to show recent area losses on some peripheral seas,
and
that the Central Arctic Sea does have a vulnerable edge even in winter.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #160 on: February 07, 2019, 05:57:40 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 6th, 2019:
     13,513,236 km2, an increase of 71,370 km2.
     2019 is still the 3rd lowest on record.
PS: Important increase.  :) Now above the 13.5 M km2 mark.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Rodius

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #161 on: February 07, 2019, 06:22:35 AM »
When I first saw the polynomial trend line I thought it was completely wrong.
I have no idea how it is calculated, but to me it is way off.

Anyway, given the observations are following it so closely, and seeing how terrible the polynomial trend line is compared to other years, I would rather observations stopped follow that line.

interstitial

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #162 on: February 07, 2019, 08:00:57 AM »
Prior to the inflection point using a polynomial trend line to predict a minimum or maximum is just bad math as they are unduly influenced by the last few data points. I avoided earlier comment because I appreciate the many tables and graphs produced and how much work that is.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #163 on: February 07, 2019, 08:17:30 AM »
Prior to the inflection point using a polynomial trend line to predict a minimum or maximum is just bad math as they are unduly influenced by the last few data points. I avoided earlier comment because I appreciate the many tables and graphs produced and how much work that is.

Of course it is bad math. That is why in my commentary I call that section "The perils of projections". It is a nice demo of how a trend line can have an almost perfect correlation to
 a series of observations but is of zero value for looking at projections of the future.

Now that demo is done I will remove it.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #164 on: February 07, 2019, 08:27:32 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,513,236 km2(February 6, 2019)

- Extent gain 71k, 49k more than the average gain of 22 k on this day.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record (just),
- Freezing to date from minimum is 179 k (1.9%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 92.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 33 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.15 million km2 (270k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.02 million km2, (140k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #165 on: February 07, 2019, 02:09:01 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,395,235 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,395,235    km2      
-15,481    km2   <    2010's average.
 66,840    k   >   2018
-487,187    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    9    k   0
Peripheral Seas   -12    k   loss
Central Seas__   -9    k   loss
Other Seas___    29    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -14    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    20    k   gain
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Area GAIN 9 k, 8k less than the 2010's average gain of 17k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year. 

Contrast the Okhotsk - strong gain, with the Bering - strong loss.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #166 on: February 07, 2019, 08:51:09 PM »
Prior to the inflection point using a polynomial trend line to predict a minimum or maximum is just bad math as they are unduly influenced by the last few data points. I avoided earlier comment because I appreciate the many tables and graphs produced and how much work that is.

Of course it is bad math. That is why in my commentary I call that section "The perils of projections". It is a nice demo of how a trend line can have an almost perfect correlation to
 a series of observations but is of zero value for looking at projections of the future.

Now that demo is done I will remove it.

Whenever you fit a line to data you are suggesting a correlation, or not, as the case may be. Typically a hypothesis will be built around that correlation, a model that fits the data together, and perhaps suggests a causative mechanism. The value in the model is in how skillfully or not it fits future data.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #167 on: February 08, 2019, 05:12:32 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 7th, 2019:
     13,519,007 km2, an increase of only 5,771 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

miki

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #168 on: February 08, 2019, 05:50:27 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 7th, 2019:
     13,519,007 km2, an increase of only 5,771 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.

Thanks, Juan! Really appreciated. Here every night for Geronto's and your updates.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #169 on: February 08, 2019, 09:32:15 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,519,007 km2(February 7, 2019)

- Extent gain 6k, 16k less than the average gain of 22k on this day.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 196 k (2.1%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 92.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 32 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.14 million km2 (260k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.04 million km2, (160k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic will remain.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #170 on: February 08, 2019, 03:32:23 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,421,737 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,421,737    km2      
 11,711    km2   >    2010's average.
 150,697    k   >   2018
-485,929    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    26    k   0
Peripheral Seas   -0    k   loss
Central Seas__   -12    k   loss
Other Seas___    39    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -11    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    8    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    30    k   gain
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Area GAIN 26 k, 27k more than the 2010's average loss of 1k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year. 

Contrast the Okhotsk -30k extremely strong gain, with the Bering - 11 k strong loss.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #171 on: February 08, 2019, 08:24:19 PM »
If Okhotsk Sea were excluded from the calculation we would see continuous losses of Arctic Sea Ice Area from 28 Jan on...

uniquorn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #172 on: February 08, 2019, 08:28:17 PM »
If Okhotsk Sea were excluded from the calculation we would see continuous losses of Arctic Sea Ice Area from 28 Jan on...
Does this happen often at this time of year? (I mostly do images, not the spreadsheets)

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #173 on: February 08, 2019, 09:08:17 PM »
I just checked the 2018 sea ice area and extent data thread, but early last year gerontocrat didn't update us with daily sea-wise area data. At this time of the year Okhotsk was strongly rising, so did in parts Baffin and St. Lawrence whereas Bering strongly declined.
At this time of the year all the major central seas are more or less 99-100% covered by sea ice, and a strong increase (or decrease) in one or two of the peripherical seas may change the direction of the total sea ice area (or extent). Therefore I don't think this actual "dependence" on the Okhotsk Sea is unusual.
Maybe gerontocrat can help with figures/tables from last February.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #174 on: February 08, 2019, 09:09:35 PM »
If Okhotsk Sea were excluded from the calculation we would see continuous losses of Arctic Sea Ice Area from 28 Jan on...
Does this happen often at this time of year? (I mostly do images, not the spreadsheets)
Yep - late to freeze, early to melt. 2018 was also really cold in that sea while the Bering was warm.
Happening a bit like that now this year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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uniquorn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #175 on: February 08, 2019, 09:29:44 PM »
Thanks, so possibly a similar increase if cold air is dragged across Okhotsk into the Pacific.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #176 on: February 09, 2019, 07:48:59 AM »
Thanks, Juan! Really appreciated. Here every night for Geronto's and your updates.
You are welcome. And thanks everyone for the "like"s!
Excuse me that I was late today... Friday night!  ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 8th, 2019:
     13,557,113 km2, an increase of 38,106 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #177 on: February 09, 2019, 09:30:16 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,557,113 km2(February 8, 2019)

- Extent gain 38k, 4k more than the average gain of 22k on this day.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 191 k (2.1%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 93.3 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 31 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.14 million km2 (260k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.04 million km2, (160k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic will remain.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #178 on: February 09, 2019, 02:52:16 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,460,151 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,460,151    km2      
 57,438    km2   >    2010's average.
 285,328    k   >   2018
-473,579    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    38    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    10    k   gain
Central Seas__   -15    k   loss
Other Seas___    43    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    14    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    34    k   gain
St Lawrence___    7    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Area GAIN 38 k, 45k more than the 2010's average loss of 7k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  Looking at the tables shows how cold and warmth moves around the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #179 on: February 10, 2019, 05:40:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 9th, 2019:
     13,607,932 km2, an increase of 50,819 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #180 on: February 10, 2019, 06:28:42 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,607,932 km2(February 9, 2019)

- Extent gain 51k, 27k more than the average gain of 24k on this day.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 164 k (1.8%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 93.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 30 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.17 million km2 (290k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.10 million km2, (220k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic will remain.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #181 on: February 10, 2019, 05:29:03 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,484,470 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,484,470    km2      
 82,400    km2   >    2010's average.
 386,317    k   >   2018
-481,033    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    24    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    12    k   gain
Central Seas__   -9    k   loss
Other Seas___    21    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -15    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    17    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    6    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    21    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area GAIN 24 k, 25k more than the 2010's average loss of 1k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  Looking at the tables shows how cold and warmth is moving around the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #182 on: February 10, 2019, 09:53:17 PM »
Another month - and this time also another 5-year period - has passed and I provide the actual January extent data in the bigger context.
Jan 2019 had an average extent of 13.56 M km², 0.6 M km² less than all Januarys since 1979. Nevertheless the loss does not follow the linear trend line, but remains 0.3 M km² above it (red line in the graph). It is the third consecutive month with that behaviour, and I guess at least the next two months will show the same deviation.
See attached graph (if you compare it with the Dec 2018 graph you see I had to lengthen the x axis by another five years).

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #183 on: February 11, 2019, 02:34:48 AM »
Stephan - can you show a graph with only the January averages for each year? I wonder if it will show a different trend.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #184 on: February 11, 2019, 05:06:50 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,649,459 km2(February 10, 2019)

- Extent gain 42k, 36k more than the average gain of 6k on this day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 128 k (1.4%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 93.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 29 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.20 million km2 (320k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.14 million km2, (260k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic will remain.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #185 on: February 11, 2019, 05:38:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 10th, 2019:
     13,649,459 km2, an increase of 41,527 km2.
     2019 is now the 4rd lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Phil42

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #186 on: February 11, 2019, 09:03:21 AM »
We are now approaching the timeframe where extent could hit its yearly maximum any day(when looking at JAXA data going back to '79).

So far, all maximums have happened between 15th February (2015) and 31st March (2010) with no real trend in either direction.

Eco-Author

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #187 on: February 11, 2019, 12:45:57 PM »
kinda wondering what that polynomial trend line looks like now... The extreme degree of inaccuracy makes me question the supposed scientists who were predicting a 10-C increase in just four years - about a year and a half ago!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #188 on: February 11, 2019, 02:35:41 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,502,312 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,502,312    km2      
 100,922    km2   >    2010's average.
 479,269    k   >   2018
-498,577    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    18    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    9    k   gain
Central Seas__   -6    k   loss
Other Seas___    15    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -17    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    19    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -5    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Area GAIN 18 k, 19k more than the 2010's average loss of 1k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  Looking at the tables shows how cold and warmth is moving around the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #189 on: February 11, 2019, 08:02:14 PM »
Stephan - can you show a graph with only the January averages for each year? I wonder if it will show a different trend.
Here it is, please note that the slope is only 60% of that of all calendar months:

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #190 on: February 11, 2019, 08:26:04 PM »
Thank you Stephan. I see a clear trend, for the time being, lower lows and lower highs.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #191 on: February 12, 2019, 04:42:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 11th, 2019:
     13,695,200 km2, an increase of 45,741 km2.
     2019 is now the 6th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #192 on: February 12, 2019, 10:39:09 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,695,200 km2(February 11, 2019)

- Extent gain 46k, 42k more than the average gain of 4k on this day.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 87 k (0.9%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 93.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 28 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.24 million km2 (360k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.20 million km2, (320k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #193 on: February 12, 2019, 02:02:00 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,518,350 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,518,350    km2      
 115,957    km2   >    2010's average.
 543,120    k   >   2018
-518,359    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    16    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    9    k   gain
Central Seas__   -5    k   loss
Other Seas___    11    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -10    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    9    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    16    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area GAIN 16 k, 15k more than the 2010's average gain of 1k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  Looking at the tables shows how cold and warmth is moving around the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #194 on: February 12, 2019, 02:04:49 PM »
The Bering and Okhotsk Seas are next door to each other, but like last year are looking somewhat different.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #195 on: February 12, 2019, 06:33:58 PM »
Last year we were wondering if the Bering Sea would have a February max (we thought that would be incredible! then it had a March max).  This year I'm wondering if the Bering Sea will have a January max, but am ho-hum about the possibility.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #196 on: February 12, 2019, 10:32:29 PM »
Last year we were wondering if the Bering Sea would have a February max (we thought that would be incredible! then it had a March max).  This year I'm wondering if the Bering Sea will have a January max, but am ho-hum about the possibility.
It looks again that Bering Sea Ice cover doesn't want to follow "normal" routes as it is declining rapidly in contrast to all the ten-year-averages. It is too early to say it has already had its maximum, but it is really possible...

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #197 on: February 13, 2019, 04:51:17 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 12th, 2019:
     13,755,722 km2, an increase of 60,522 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Wherestheice

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #198 on: February 13, 2019, 05:11:12 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 12th, 2019:
     13,755,722 km2, an increase of 60,522 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.

The back and forth fluctuations continue. This has been an interesting freezing season
"When the ice goes..... F***

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #199 on: February 13, 2019, 11:34:58 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,755,722 km2(February 12, 2019)

- Extent gain 61k, 38k more than the average gain of 23k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 45 k (0.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 93.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 27 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.28 million km2 (400k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.24 million km2, (360k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)