JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,433,729 km2(February 4, 2019)
- Extent gain 5k, 13k less than average gain of 18 k on this day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 227 k (2.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 92.4 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 35 days to maximum (11th March)
The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.10 million km2 (220k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 13.97 million km2, (90k >2017). This is in contrast with using a polynomial trend line projection, which produces a max of around 13.50 million km2 on the 8th February - now that would be a surprise.
Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.