JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 6,860,793 km2(July 21, 2019)
July extent loss to date still above average overall. 560k extent loss in the last 5 days
On average, more than two thirds of extent loss completed.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record, extent is 23 k below 2011, 244 k below 2012, 313 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 115 k, 29 k more than the average loss on this day of 86 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 7,410 k, 455 k (6.5%) greater than the average of 6,955 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 70.4% of the melting season done, with 54 days to average date of minimum (13 September).
The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.94 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
To be a record low would require further extent loss of just under 3.7 million, more than 25% above the average. Apart from 2012, the nearest any other recent year came to that was 2008, when remaining melt was 18% above the average.
Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will initially slowly reduce, this reduction in daily loss gradually increasing on the approach to minimum.
The June volume data persuaded me to drop my minimum guesstimate minimum to below 4 million km2 from exactly 4 million km2. A mistake, or not a mistake, or even an underestimate of melt to come? That will depend on the future weather.
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