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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1750 on: July 21, 2019, 06:12:27 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Starting on the 18th, the daily numbers became unavailable.

I get my data as follows..

go to https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/

scroll down a bit to find the excel files to download.

for the daily & 5 day NH and SH extents choose:-

1. All daily (single day and five-day trailing average) extent values in one file, updated daily (Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)

It has never ever been a problem except when NSIDC has a problem.
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Espen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1751 on: July 21, 2019, 06:56:16 PM »
I am not the big sea ice interpreter, but I find it interesting that Foxe Basin is ahead of Hudson Bay when it comes to melting of sea ice? That it very unusual I think?
Have a ice day!

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1752 on: July 22, 2019, 05:44:41 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 21st, 2019:
     6,860,793 km2, a century drop of -115,169 km2.
     2019 is now the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1753 on: July 22, 2019, 06:02:32 AM »
I am not the big sea ice interpreter, but I find it interesting that Foxe Basin is ahead of Hudson Bay when it comes to melting of sea ice? That it very unusual I think?
I haven't follow this topic myself...
Great to have you here, Espen!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1754 on: July 22, 2019, 06:53:08 AM »
I am not the big sea ice interpreter, but I find it interesting that Foxe Basin is ahead of Hudson Bay when it comes to melting of sea ice? That it very unusual I think?

I remember someone commenting very early in the season that the ice in Hudson Bay was much thicker than normal and would take a long time to melt out this year.

Tigertown

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1755 on: July 22, 2019, 06:57:51 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 21st, 2019:
     2019 is now the lowest on record.

I knew this was coming. It was just a matter of time. Extent is finally backing up what all the other numbers have been showing for a while, for this season.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1756 on: July 22, 2019, 08:00:53 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 6,860,793 km2(July 21, 2019)

July extent loss to date still above average overall. 560k extent loss in the last 5 days
On average, more than two thirds of extent loss completed.

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record, extent is 23 k below 2011,  244 k below 2012,  313 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 115 k, 29 k more than the average loss on this day of 86 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 7,410 k, 455 k (6.5%) greater than the average of 6,955 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 70.4% of the melting season done, with 54 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.94 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

To be a record low would require further extent loss of just under 3.7 million, more than 25% above the average. Apart from 2012, the nearest any other recent year came to that was 2008, when remaining melt was 18% above the average.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are  past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will initially slowly reduce, this reduction in daily loss gradually increasing on the approach to minimum. 

The June volume data persuaded me to drop my minimum guesstimate minimum  to below 4 million km2 from exactly 4 million km2. A mistake, or not a mistake, or even an underestimate of melt to come? That will depend on the future weather.
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jdallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1757 on: July 22, 2019, 08:04:03 AM »
I am not the big sea ice interpreter, but I find it interesting that Foxe Basin is ahead of Hudson Bay when it comes to melting of sea ice? That it very unusual I think?

I remember someone commenting very early in the season that the ice in Hudson Bay was much thicker than normal and would take a long time to melt out this year.
Espen's bemusement is tied back to the fact that the Foxe Basin historically was very late to melt out, if it did at all.  That it is ahead of Hudson is a sign of the times, I think.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1758 on: July 22, 2019, 08:10:02 AM »
I am not the big sea ice interpreter, but I find it interesting that Foxe Basin is ahead of Hudson Bay when it comes to melting of sea ice? That it very unusual I think?
Unusual warmth in that part of the world?

e.g. Greenland melting season,
       Baffin Bay
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Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1759 on: July 22, 2019, 02:12:08 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 21st, 2019:
     2019 is now the lowest on record.

Everyone knew this was coming when the 100k+ days kicked in again. Weather turned towards ice eating, so... I specifically predicted this to happen on the 20th or 21st. The interesting short-term question is whether 2019 can keep the title through and after Aug 10th given it's a drop of 2.16M km sq in 20 days. 2019 will have to avg. -96k a day to keep pace... for 20 days. The shorter short-term question is whether it can keep the title after 2012 takes over on the 25th then drops nearly 600k+ in five days, or 98k/day.

Inquiring minds...

I knew this was coming. It was just a matter of time. Extent is finally backing up what all the other numbers have been showing for a while, for this season.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1760 on: July 22, 2019, 03:13:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 July 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,725,233 km2

Area loss remaining  below average, in contrast with high JAXA extent loss.
                        
Total Area         
 4,725,233    km2      
-521,456    km2   <   2010's average.
-548,704    km2   <   2018
-1,306,563    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -73    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -15    k   loss
Central Seas__   -51    k   loss
Other Seas___   -7    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -12    k   loss
CAA_________   -5    k   loss
East Siberian__   -10    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss

- Area loss 73 k, 23 k LESS than the 2010's average loss of 96 k on this day.
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 301 k LESS than 2016, and 4 k MORE than 2012.

Area loss remains below average, 2012 now lowest by a smidgeon, difference with with 2016 a bit less on this day.

Other Stuff
On July 31, daylight hours at the city of North Pole (Alaska) will be more than one hour less than today.

What all this means for melt is.... ?

Oulook
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that  is already gently sliding down. Overall, Area losses in July to date above average, but currently trending a trifle downwards.

It definitely was a steep downward slope that has now eased.

NSIDC 5 day Area did not continue in pole position for about one week/two weeks/the rest of July/the entire remaining melt season.
________________________________________________________________________
NSIDC daily extent loss  94k on this day.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1761 on: July 22, 2019, 06:46:00 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1762 on: July 22, 2019, 06:57:08 PM »
I am not the big sea ice interpreter, but I find it interesting that Foxe Basin is ahead of Hudson Bay when it comes to melting of sea ice? That it very unusual I think?

I remember someone commenting very early in the season that the ice in Hudson Bay was much thicker than normal and would take a long time to melt out this year.

The Foxe basin was really hot early in the year. The snow on Baffin Island cleared very early. Lots of nice clear sky and high temperatures. From what I can tell (on worldview) the melt lakes to the east of the Barnes ice cap have melted out earlier than ever. I bet it's going to be a record loss of ice from that ice cap this year.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 07:06:55 PM by RoxTheGeologist »

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1763 on: July 22, 2019, 07:23:43 PM »
Hudson, Kara, Baffin and Barents now lose around 10% of their ice area every single day. It won't take too long until they are almost cleared out.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1764 on: July 23, 2019, 05:46:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 22nd, 2019:
     6,745,450 km2, a century drop of -115,343 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jdallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1765 on: July 23, 2019, 06:07:47 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 22nd, 2019:
     6,745,450 km2, a century drop of -115,343 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Things are still playing out as I've expected.  I think we should see at least another 10-14 days of losses in both extent and area of between 90ish and 120ish thousand km2 consistently, possibly higher.

All that "slash" ice between larger floes is disappearing.   The larger floes are breaking up and thinning.  I don't see any one area (well... possibly the ESS...) making any dramatic singular contributions to this.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1766 on: July 23, 2019, 08:33:41 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 6,745,450 km2(July 22, 2019)

July extent loss to date still above average overall. 679k extent loss in the last 6 days
On average, more than two thirds of extent loss completed.

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (35th day this year), extent is 68 k below 2011, 297 k below 2012, 382 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 115 k, 26 k more than the average loss on this day of 89 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 7,526 k, 481 k (6.8%) greater than the average of 7,044 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 71.3% of the melting season done, with 53 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.91 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.73 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.11 million below the 2nd lowest (2016, 4.02 million km2).

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are  past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will initially slowly reduce, this reduction in daily loss gradually increasing on the approach to minimum. 

The June volume data persuaded me to drop my minimum guesstimate minimum  to below 4 million km2 from exactly 4 million km2. A mistake, or not a mistake, or even an underestimate of melt to come? That will depend on the future weather.
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1767 on: July 23, 2019, 03:27:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 July 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,675,625 km2

Whoops
Area loss going from below average to extremely below average , in contrast with high JAXA extent loss.
                        
Total Area         
 4,675,625    km2      
-479,087    km2   <   2010's average.
-468,936    km2   <   2018
-1,275,565    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -50    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -10    k   loss
Central Seas__   -34    k   loss
Other Seas___   -5    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -6    k   loss
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -10    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss

- Area loss 50 k, 47 k LESS than the 2010's average loss of 97 k on this day.
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 275 k LESS than 2016, and 21 k MORE than 2012.

Area loss remains below average, 2012 now lowest , difference with with 2016 less on this day.

Oulook
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that  is already gently sliding down. Overall, Area losses in July to date above average, but currently trending downwards.

It definitely was a steep downward slope that has now greatly eased to below average losses.
________________________________________________________________________
NSIDC daily extent loss a below average 60k on this day.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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be cause

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1768 on: July 23, 2019, 03:51:47 PM »
It really looks like 2019 intends to accompany 2012 to the bottom . Different weather .. similar result ? .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1769 on: July 23, 2019, 04:20:40 PM »
It really looks like 2019 intends to accompany 2012 to the bottom . Different weather .. similar result ? .. b.c.
Maybe, maybe not.

I guess the Arctic is 7 years warmer than in 2012, the Arctic temperature increases at double? the average of 0.2? degrees C  per decade, and the world's temperature is very warm this year.

EDIT: And I forgot to mention that every year some zillions of joules of energy are swallowed by the oceans, and not all of it stays in the tropics.

But that's climate and long-term stuff, and I have no view on the weather from now to minimum.

Meanwhile, sea ice in 4 seas has managed to continue to pursue its path to oblivion at above average rates (graphs attached) even though for the rest of the seas Armageddon has been delayed a bit.

Sea ice in Hudson Bay has even managed to be 2nd lowest on this day.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2019, 07:15:03 PM by gerontocrat »
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1770 on: July 23, 2019, 04:22:47 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1771 on: July 23, 2019, 04:27:57 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 July 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,675,625 km2

Whoops
Area loss going from below average to extremely below average , in contrast with high JAXA extent loss.

Lots of popcorn to be smooshed together. Popcorn balls, anybody?

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1772 on: July 23, 2019, 06:10:39 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 22nd, 2019:
     6,745,450 km2, a century drop of -115,343 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Things are still playing out as I've expected.  I think we should see at least another 10-14 days of losses in both extent and area of between 90ish and 120ish thousand km2 consistently, possibly higher.

All that "slash" ice between larger floes is disappearing.   The larger floes are breaking up and thinning.  I don't see any one area (well... possibly the ESS...) making any dramatic singular contributions to this.

Could suggest the possibility of new record low in SIA and a 2nd place in SIE.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1773 on: July 23, 2019, 11:47:44 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 July 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,675,625 km2

Whoops
Area loss going from below average to extremely below average , in contrast with high JAXA extent loss.

It had to do that after I made my prediction.  Perhaps if I make more like it, the loss of ice will slow down.  Shall I try?
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1774 on: July 24, 2019, 12:06:42 AM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 July 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,675,625 km2

Whoops
Area loss going from below average to extremely below average , in contrast with high JAXA extent loss.

It had to do that after I made my prediction.  Perhaps if I make more like it, the loss of ice will slow down.  Shall I try?

Give it a shot. We need a miracle.

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1775 on: July 24, 2019, 06:32:09 AM »
So... nothing updating today?

Ktb

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1776 on: July 24, 2019, 06:45:39 AM »
JAXA redirecting to their twitter page again today.
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frankendoodle

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1777 on: July 24, 2019, 07:27:05 AM »
Does anyone know what is going on with JAXA today?
It looks like the quadpole is tearing the entire arctic ocean apart and I want numbers!

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1778 on: July 24, 2019, 07:35:38 AM »
JAXA redirecting to their twitter page again today.
Still no data...  :-\
Some damage with the cyclones, but difficult to guess what happened with ASI extent.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2019, 07:45:42 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1779 on: July 24, 2019, 07:37:15 AM »
No NSIDC either?

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1780 on: July 24, 2019, 08:05:47 AM »
Jaxa is up now and the figures for the last  three days are below.
6860793
6745450
6665411

Jaxa needs a 30K rise tomorrow to lose first place despite a 228K drop by 2012 tomorrow.  2011 and 2012 slow down a bit after tomorrow.

Jaxa needs a 78K drop per day to stay ahead until the end of the month.  Average decline over this period is 85K per day.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2019, 08:35:57 AM by DavidR »
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wdmn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1781 on: July 24, 2019, 08:08:10 AM »
July 23rd, 2019:
     6,665,411 km2, a drop of -80,039 km2.

bbr2314

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1782 on: July 24, 2019, 08:09:14 AM »
I think we will lose 1M KM^2 in the next week. Or more. It will equal or surpass the 2012 GAC IMO.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1783 on: July 24, 2019, 09:07:32 AM »
July 23rd, 2019
JAXA extent 2019 is the lowest on record (6.67 M km²). The positions 2, 3 and 4 are 2011 (+0.08 M km²), 2007 (+ 0.22 M km²) and 2012 (+ 0.27 M km²).
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1784 on: July 24, 2019, 12:49:34 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 6,665,411 km2(July 23, 2019)

July extent loss to date still above average overall. 759k extent loss in the last 7 days
On average, approaching 3/4 of extent loss completed.

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (36th day this year), extent is 80 k below 2011, 274 k below 2012, 403 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 80 k, 1 k more than the average loss on this day of 79 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 7,606 k, 482 k (6.8%) greater than the average of 7,123 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 72.1% of the melting season done, with 52 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.91 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.73 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.11 million below the 2nd lowest (2016, 4.02 million km2).

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are  past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will initially slowly reduce, this reduction in daily loss gradually increasing on the approach to minimum. 

The June volume data persuaded me to drop my minimum guesstimate minimum  to below 4 million km2 from exactly 4 million km2. A mistake, or not a mistake, or even an underestimate of melt to come? That will depend on the future weather.
______________________________________________________________
How dare JAXA mess up my daily timetable by being late in posting the data?
How dare NSIDC change when they post their data to at least one hour later?

I will send them both a strongly worded memorandum. That'll fix 'em.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1785 on: July 24, 2019, 01:34:57 PM »
7/23/2011 stood at 6.75M km sq. on this date.
7/23/2019 stands at 6.665M km sq., a record low for this date.

7/24/2011 stood at 6.68M km sq. on this date.
7/23/2019 stands at 6.67M km sq., needing < +15k (non-rounded) increase for a record low on the 24th.

100% chance.

7/25/2012 stood at 6.62M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 25k km sq. for a record low on this date. (2 days)

8/10/2012 stood at 4.94M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 96.11k km sq. for a record low for this post-GAC date. (18 days)

9/15/2012 stood at 3.18M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 64.6k km sq. for a record low for this date. (54 days)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1786 on: July 24, 2019, 02:53:19 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1787 on: July 24, 2019, 03:31:03 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 July 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,633,361 km2

Whoops #2
Area loss going from below average to even more extremely below average.
                        
Total Area         
 4,633,361    km2      
-436,284    km2   <   2010's average.
-410,743    km2   <   2018
-1,236,684    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -42    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -9    k   loss
Central Seas__   -32    k   loss
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -13    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

- Area loss 42 k, 50 k LESS than the 2010's average loss of 92 k on this day.
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 258 k LESS than 2016, and 36 k MORE than 2012.

Area loss remains much below average, 2012 now lowest , difference with with 2016 again less on this day.

Outlook
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that  is already gently sliding down. Overall, Area losses in July to date above average, but currently trending downwards.

It definitely was a steep downward slope that has now greatly eased to well below average losses.
________________________________________________________________________
NSIDC daily extent loss a much below average of 41 k on this day.

Contrast with some posts on the melting thread (including those from some days ago) extreme.
"Great Expectations" - a novel by Charles Dickens.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Csnavywx

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1788 on: July 24, 2019, 05:13:30 PM »
Not terribly surprising, given how cold it was over the basin the past couple of days. Should see some rapidly accelerating losses in a day or two with the dipole forming today.

gregcharles

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1789 on: July 24, 2019, 05:34:32 PM »
In the JAXA extent record, 2019 has already beat the minimums(*) for every year up to 1989 as well as 1992, 1994, and 1996.

(*) Minima for those who still insist on speaking Latin.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1790 on: July 24, 2019, 06:45:12 PM »

For NSIDC the current extent would place 2019 as 33/40 years at the minimum, with roughly 7 weeks still to go in the melt season.

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1791 on: July 24, 2019, 06:59:20 PM »
Not terribly surprising, given how cold it was over the basin the past couple of days. Should see some rapidly accelerating losses in a day or two with the dipole forming today.
Negative atmospheric heat flux.
Melt pond refreeze.  Now heat coming again...

frankendoodle

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1792 on: July 24, 2019, 09:54:22 PM »
Based on AMSR2 images a lot of ice has been transported from north of 80N to south of 75N in the past few days. Ice that will definitely melt in the next month. Not just in the East Siberian but in Beaufort as well. Reminds me of 2012 when a huge blob of ice got transported into the Chukchi in late July.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1793 on: July 25, 2019, 12:10:51 AM »
Frankendoodle,
At 111 km per degree latitude, you're suggesting ice has moved more than 550 km in several days.  Ice in Nares Strait can do that in about a week with the assistance of currents and wind (only at the 'very best' of times), but not anywhere else, unless I'm quite mistaken.

Yes, much ice below 75N (and some above it) will melt out.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1794 on: July 25, 2019, 05:43:37 AM »
Millenial NSIDC ASIE Records 2019 via Pettit Bar Graph
http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/sie_nsidc_max_min_plus_step_days.png

8.999 ~ 8.0M km sq = 6 days, record
8.999 ~ 7.0M km sq = 18 days, record, tie 2018
9.999 ~ 7.0M km sq = 27 days, record, tie 2011
9.999 ~ 8.0M km sq = 15 days, record

Any errors, let me know.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1795 on: July 25, 2019, 05:59:45 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
At this time, they are half an hour late in updating the data...  ???

P.S.
If someone else can post the new data...
Thanks!

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: July 25, 2019, 06:42:43 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1796 on: July 25, 2019, 07:01:33 AM »
If someone else can post the new data...
Thanks!

Waiting... waiting... Luckily, it's early afternoon where I am.

I am the grasshopper. I am patient.

Yeah, right... C'mon, JAXA!

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1797 on: July 25, 2019, 09:07:28 AM »
In the meantime, this graph is up-to-date

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1798 on: July 25, 2019, 09:09:36 AM »
In the meantime, this graph is up-to-date

That's a big gap considering the insolation the ice and water is about to absorb.

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1799 on: July 25, 2019, 09:32:32 AM »
In the meantime, this graph is up-to-date

If Wipneus has the JAXA number... ?