2019 sea ice area and extent data

[Killian]

Looks like JAXAites are having trouble - or maybe sake? Guess I won't send them any soju or we'll never get an update.

Just shy of 6 hours of waiting for the data update today. Think I'll stop refreshing like a rat on an intermittent reward schedule, if only for my self-esteem.

[Sterks]

 

In the meantime, this graph is up-to-date

If Wipneus has the JAXA number... ?

Wipneus processed a Jaxa-like number, the line is in the plot as well, but it is not exactly Jaxa extent. But you can see the tendency (daily, not 2-day average). Seems Jaxa is not going down much today as will include a flat day in the average

[Viggy]

In the meantime, this graph is up-to-date

If Wipneus has the JAXA number... ?

Wipneus processed a Jaxa-like number, the line is in the plot as well, but it is not exactly Jaxa extent. But you can see the tendency (daily, not 2-day average). Seems Jaxa is not going down much today as will include a flat day in the average

Given that the AMSR2 3.125 drop for today seems to be accelerating, it would be highly unlikely for JAXA to have a near flat day.

The flat value is most likely due to some issue with data not coming in (hence no Jaxa update yet either).

[Sterks]

In the meantime, this graph is up-to-date

If Wipneus has the JAXA number... ?

Wipneus processed a Jaxa-like number, the line is in the plot as well, but it is not exactly Jaxa extent. But you can see the tendency (daily, not 2-day average). Seems Jaxa is not going down much today as will include a flat day in the average

Given that the AMSR2 3.125 drop for today seems to be accelerating, it would be highly unlikely for JAXA to have a near flat day.

The flat value is most likely due to some issue with data not coming in (hence no Jaxa update yet either).

No, I didn't want to imply that. I mean that it will be probably average as the previous day, because a daily sharp drop is averaged with a daily flat.

[Killian]

Seems Jaxa is not going down much today as will include a flat day in the average

JAXA uses an average?

 

[Killian]

Why no NSIDC area or extent data?

[Alphabet Hotel]

NSIDC daily extent

[DrTskoul]

Quite the jump...

[Sterks]

Seems Jaxa is not going down much today as will include a flat day in the average

JAXA uses an average?

 

It's based on satellite data spanning 48h. Not strictly an average but works similarly

[pauldry600]

Looking at Uni Bremen chart another 100k drop not out of the question on missing data. 120k?

[Killian]

Yes. All the image data looks like big drops, NSIDC came in at -150k, but JAXA and NSIDC are angry kissin' cousins, so far as I can tell, so not sure NSIDC tells us much about JAXA. Overall, will absolutely not be surprised if you've guessed in the ballpark.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 24 July 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,587,531  km2

Whoops #3
Area loss staying at very much below average.

Total Area           4,587,531    km2       -397,660    km2   <   2010's average. -379,076    km2   <   2018 -1,201,016    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change   -46    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -11    k   loss Central Seas__   -32    k   loss Other Seas___   -3    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss Greenland____   -7    k   loss Barents ______   -3    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss CAA_________   -3    k   loss East Siberian__   -9    k   loss Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss           Kara_________   -1    k   loss Laptev_______   -7    k   loss Chukchi______   -7    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

- Area loss 46 k, 39 k LESS than the 2010's average loss of 85 k on this day.
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 233 k LESS than 2016, and 52 k MORE than 2012.

Area loss remains much below average, 2012 now lowest , difference with with 2016 again less on this day.

Outlook
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that  is already gently sliding down. Overall, Area losses in July to date above average, but currently trending downwards.

It definitely was a steep downward slope that has now greatly eased to well below average losses.
________________________________________________________________________
NSIDC daily extent loss a much below above average of 41152 k on this day.

ps: JAXA data published by VISHOP is an average of the last 2 days observations.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC 5 day area graph in a bit of a contrast with NSIDC DAILY EXTENT

[Killian]

With no JAXA data, some fun with numbers:

           Daily #s
     JAXA     NSIDC    Diff.
19  7.07      7.185     115   
20  6.98      7.139     159
21  6.86      7.045     185
22  6.75      6.985     235
23  6.67      6.944     274


NSIDC 24th - NSIDC 5-Day Diff= JAXA?
6.792 - 193.6 = 6.598

NSIDC 24th - NSIDC 2-Day Diff = JAXA?
6.792 - 254.5 = 6.547

Average of the two above results = JAXA?
SIDC 24th - (5-D + 2-D)/2 = 6.572

[RoxTheGeologist]

NSIDC - daily numbers place 2019 at 29/40 years

[roger white]

September Average Extents, 2002-2018: Calculated by Walt Meier and Julienne Stroeve, National Snow and Ice Data Center. All values in this table estimated based on the NSIDC Sea Ice Index Version 3.ge Extents, 2002-2018:

Would anyone like to comment on these figs from NSIDC

2008 4.69
2009 5.25
2010 4.87
2011 4.56
2012 3.57
2013 5.21
2014  5.22
2015  4.62
2016  4.53
2017  4.82
2018  4.71

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 24^th, 2019:
     6,616,774 km², a drop of -48,637 km².

July 25^th, 2019:
     6,508,940 km², a century drop of -107,834 km².
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

[Rich]

It has been suggested on the melting season thread that the lower recent area readings are faulty as a result of cloudiness.

I'm wondering if anyone would like to comment on that?

[bbr2314]

It has been suggested on the melting season thread that the lower recent area readings are faulty as a result of cloudiness.

I'm wondering if anyone would like to comment on that?

I mean look at Bremen -- it is flashing bright purple over areas that are rubble (the NW side of the pack).



I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.

[Juan C. García]

2019 July Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) report

The projected median Arctic September extent from all contributions is 4.28 million square kilometers, with a quartile range of 4.0 to 4.6 million square kilometers. This is a slight drop from the June median Outlook of 4.4 million square kilometers, which is not surprising given the relatively rapid decline in ice extent during June.

https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2019/july


The projected median Arctic September extent from all contributions is almost even with the 4.27M km² that happened on 2007.

[Killian]

Edited and adjusted to reflect changes while JAXA did not update.

7/24/2011 stood at 6.68M km sq. on this date.
7/23/2019 stands at 6.67M km sq., needing < +15k (non-rounded) increase for a record low on the 24th.

7/25/2012 stood at 6.62M km sq. on this date.
7/24/2019 stood at 6.62M km sq., a record, after a drop of 50k km sq. 2019 needed a drop of > 0k km sq. for a record low.

7/25/2012 stood at 6.62M km sq. on this date.
7/25/2019 stands at 6.51M km sq., a record low, after a drop of 110k km sq.

7/26/2012 stood at 6.51M km sq. on this date.
7/25/2019 stands at 6.51M km sq. 2019 needs a drop > 0k km sq. for a record low on this date.

-------------------------

8/10/2012 stood at 4.94M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 98.13k km sq. for a record low on this post-GAC date. (16 days)

9/15/2012 stood at 3.18M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 64.04k km sq. for a record low on this date. (52 days)

[Stephan]

JAXA Arctic sea ice extent is now lower than the 1980s and the 1990s minimum and 18 days ahead of the 2000s average value.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 6,508,940 km2（July 25, 2019）

July extent loss to date still above average overall.
On average, approaching 3/4 of extent loss completed.

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (38th day this year), extent is 108 k below 2012, 403 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 108 k, 34 k more than the average loss on this day of 74 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 7,762 k, 462 k (6.3%) greater than the average of 7,300 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 73.9% of the melting season done, with 50 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.93 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.09 million below the 2nd lowest (2016, 4.02 million km2).

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are  past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will initially slowly reduce, this reduction in daily loss gradually increasing on the approach to minimum. 

The June volume data persuaded me to drop my minimum guesstimate minimum  to below 4 million km2 from exactly 4 million km2. A mistake, or not a mistake, or even an underestimate of melt to come? That will depend on the future weather.
______________________________________________________________
Is there a correlation between the variation of the data as actually recorded from that predicted or expected and the frequency of questions about the reliability of the data?

[gerontocrat]

For those who like to play with numbers I attach 2 files on daily extent change from now to minimum.

First attachment- image,
2nd attachment - .csv file with the data.

[Alphabet Hotel]

NSIDC daily extent

[Shared Humanity]

It has been suggested on the melting season thread that the lower recent area readings are faulty as a result of cloudiness.

I'm wondering if anyone would like to comment on that?

No.

[Shared Humanity]

hmmmm...extent tracking with 2012...clearly an unspectacular performance...

[Killian]

For those who like to play with numbers I attach 2 files on daily extent change from now to minimum.

I had literally just today thought of setting up a file.

Downright neighborly.

It occurs to me, if you added the actual daily average needed to meet/exceed the minimum, I would have no reason to post other than to see if I can predict 1 or 2 days out, but the stat stuff I post would then be completely superfluous and I would only post my guess for the coming day/days or particular landmark. Over on the other thread.

C'mon... you know you wanna kill both those birds...

Cheers

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 24 July 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,587,531  km2

Whoops #4
Area loss staying at very much below average. 4 days means reaching the place called significant.

Total Area           4,551,782    km2       -362,760    km2   <   2010's average. -357,758    km2   <   2018 -1,156,858    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change   -36    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -5    k   loss Central Seas__   -25    k   loss Other Seas___   -6    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss Greenland____   -3    k   loss Barents ______   -2    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss CAA_________   -6    k   loss East Siberian__   -14    k   loss Central Arctic_    10    k   gain           Kara_________    0    k   gain Laptev_______   -7    k   loss Chukchi______   -9    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss

- Area loss 36 k, 48 k LESS than the 2010's average loss of 84 k on this day.
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 200 k LESS than 2016, and 60 k MORE than 2012.

Area loss remains much below average, 2012 lowest , difference with with 2016 again less on this day.

Outlook
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that is already gently sliding down. Overall, Area losses in July to date above average, but currently trending downwards.

It definitely was a steep downward slope that has now greatly eased to well below average losses.
________________________________________________________________________
NSIDC daily extent loss above average at 101k on this day, 152 k the day before .

[gerontocrat]

More NSIDC (5 day trailing average) area and extent stuff.

Dispersion down (i.e. compaction / concentration up). This is against the trend for this time of year.

High Arctic (Tealight's 7 central seas) also showing very low area loss.

But for those looking for evidence for a really low minimum, the High Arctic Extent data may give some comfort.

[gerontocrat]

Area graphs...

The Bering fights back (but only Artefacts?)

The Chukchi marches on - 103rd day at record low. Open to about 77 N but will then will meet resistance?

The Beaufort stalling - now just 5th lowest.

The CAA also slowing - to above 2010's average.

[Killian]

2nd attachment - .csv file with the data.

Sadly, won't display properly in OpenOffice.

Cheers

[gerontocrat]

Best if you look at these graphs in tandem with Univ of Bremen Image -
e.g. https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

The ESS looks ready to collapse, the half bordering the Laptev to 80 N.

The remains of the Laptev also look ready to open to 80 N.

The Kara has lost nearly 90% of its area. Just bits and pieces, including an extremely irritating lump blocking completion of the opening of the Northern Sea Route .

Not long for all the Russian edge of the CAB to be open water.

[gerontocrat]

2nd attachment - .csv file with the data.

Sadly, won't display properly in OpenOffice.

Cheers

Suggest you try LibreOffice. I would go for one of the older versions - newer ones were really difficult for me to use - kept on hanging.

You will need an afternoon free unless you've got a decent internet connection (I don't).

It is what I switched to when Microsoft demanded money from me.

https://www.libreoffice.org/download/download/

[gerontocrat]

Best if you look at these graphs in tandem with Univ of Bremen Image -
e.g. https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

Barents - been really slow this year. Export from the CAB etc. But nearly all gone. CAB open to the elements.

Greenland - been really slow this year. But so was 2012 (even slower) Export from the CAB etc. Partly open to the CAB with a lot of 50% ice at the NE corner.

Baffin Bay. Did melt early and finishing early. Impact on SST anomalies has been quite dramatic.

[gerontocrat]

CENTRAL ARCTIC BASIN
Slow, slow, slow. No-one seems to have told the 3.2 million km2 of the Central Arctic Basin*** that it is the melting season.

But very soon most of the edge of the CAB will be open water.

SST Image attached - makes one think on about end-of-season melt and re-freeze generally.
___________________________________________
***  I ALWAYS use the area from NSIDC

[gerontocrat]

Hudson Bay - a bit earlier melt out than average, but insignificant.

The Okhotsk & St Lawrence. The Artefacts refuse to die.

[UCMiami]

Juan and Gerontocrat - really appreciate the information and effort you put into keeping this data driven thread going - both the daily and the more infrequent detailed charts. Also appreciate your consistently identifying the data sources as that removes a lot of mistakes in understanding.

I have a question on the charts that might be better for the melt thread, but will post here - the cab 2010 average graph line - do you have a handle on how much it has been influenced by the years of poor ice freezing seasons north of Barents? And would it be possible as a one off to post a graph containing all 9 of the 2010 years for the CAB. Would like to see it including the start point of the melt season.

Thanks.

[Killian]

2nd attachment - .csv file with the data.

Sadly, won't display properly in OpenOffice.

Cheers

Suggest you try LibreOffice.

Sounds familiar. I likely have in the past.

It is what I switched to when Microsoft demanded money from me.

OpenOffice is what I usually use, and there are issues.  I built my own spreadsheet tonight from yours. Just gutted most of it, input data I wanted by hand. Took forever because I am not skilled at Excel/Calc stuff and can never get the damned nested functions to work, e.g. SUMIF, etc.

I appreciate the help, pointers, suggestions and data. I have some interesting Fun with Numbers to share in a few days based on tonight's work.

Cheers

[FishOutofWater]

The strong transpolar drift this year imported ice into the CAB. PIOMAS is correct that melting has reduced thickness in the CAB but ice import and compression has kept extent high. Early melt ponds may have drained by now so apparent area may be hard to interpret.

[Rich]

Area loss staying at very much below average. 4 days means reaching the place called signiificant.

I agree.

Thanks for your efforts to inform.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 26^th, 2019:
     6,385,280 km², a century drop of -123,660 km².
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

[Paddy]

Hudson Bay - a bit earlier melt out than average, but insignificant.

The Okhotsk & St Lawrence. The Artefacts refuse to die.

Incidentally, the Bremen maps show the okhotsk and St lawrence ice as all gone now, and hudson is almost gone as well: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

Not that any of those areas matter to the final tally.

[Stephan]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 26^th, 2019:
     6,385,280 km², a century drop of -123,660 km².
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

Interesting to see, that the lowest 15 years are the 15 last years - a big gap between 2004 and 2005 divides the data pack. No year before 2005 made it into the top fifteen.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 6,385,280 km2（July 26, 2019）

July extent loss in the last 10 days at an average of just over 100k despite 2 very low extent loss days .
On average, approaching 3/4 of extent loss completed.

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (39th day this year), extent is 108 k below 2012, 403 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 124 k, 49 k more than the average loss on this day of 75 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 7,886 k, 510 k (6.9%) greater than the average of 7,376 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 74.6% of the melting season done, with 49 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.88 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.70 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.14 million below the 2nd lowest  in 2016, 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are  past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will initially slowly reduce, this reduction in daily loss gradually increasing on the approach to minimum. 

A weather remark: Over the next 5 days Greenland, Baffin Bay and the CAA will be warm, and at times hot. The Greenland 2019 melting season thread will have more details.

The June volume data persuaded me to drop my minimum guesstimate minimum  to below 4 million km2 from exactly 4 million km2. A mistake, or not a mistake, or even an underestimate of melt to come? That will depend on the future weather.
______________________________________________________________
The contrast between extent losses well above average and area losses well below average is becoming significant. Shades of the 2012 end of season melt?

If the data for several days (as opposed to a single day)  is unusual it usually means something unusual has happened and is happening. Perhaps the melting thread will have something to say on this to enlighten(?) us.

[Wipneus]

Today NSIDC's diff map (dark blue/red shows ice extent in/decreases. Light blue/red where ice concentration increased/decreased more than 7%) shows the ice pack retreating along the Beaufort/Chukchi/ESS ice edge.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 26 July 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,502,152  km2

Whoops #5
Area loss staying at very much below average. 5 days means reaching the place called significant, especially given strong extent loss.

Total Area           4,502,152    km2       -358,160    km2   <   2010's average. -381,790    km2   <   2018 -1,140,963    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change   -50    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -4    k   loss Central Seas__   -40    k   loss Other Seas___   -6    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -0    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss Greenland____   -2    k   loss Barents ______   -1    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________   -4    k   loss East Siberian__   -13    k   loss Central Arctic_    0    k   gain           Kara_________   -2    k   loss Laptev_______   -8    k   loss Chukchi______   -11    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss

- Area loss 50 k, 21 k LESS than the 2010's average loss of 71 k on this day.
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 187 k LESS than 2016, and 51 k MORE than 2012.

Area loss remains much below average, 2012 lowest , difference with with 2016 again less on this day.

Outlook
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that is already gently sliding down. Overall, Area losses in July to date above average, but currently trending very much downwards.

It definitely was a steep downward slope that has now greatly eased to well below average losses.
________________________________________________________________________
NSIDC daily extent loss way above average at 161k on this day, 101k & 152 k the days before .

[gerontocrat]

Meanwhile, in contrast, NSIDC daily extent continues to fall through the floor

[Rich]

A serious case of duality in the Arctic. Extent and non-CAB goes zoom, area and CAB goes sloooow.

The benchmark for CAB losses to approach a record is creeping up. We needed ~ 15K per / day a few weeks ago, maybe now we need 16k?

Looking at Aluminum's animations from yesterday gives the impression that the whole thing could burn quickly. But the rational side has some (misplaced ?) trust in the momentum story of the area data and respect for the phenomenal closing lap of 2012. Days are getting shorter too.

(Pred: Vol/Ext #2, Area #3)

[Alphabet Hotel]

NSIDC daily extent