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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2000 on: August 05, 2019, 10:21:47 AM »
Extent is 5.72 M sq km and area 3.90 M sq km. Therefore 1.82 is the water area of the 5.72
This represents 32 % of the 5.72 M sq km and so could be a measure of the slushiness of the total ice pack
Once melting gets properly underway in early June, daily area loss tends to be higher than daily extent loss. Thus the arithmetic calculation of dispersion - the ratio of extent to area, tends to increase. (see attached graph).

This happened in 2016 - muchly.
2012 was weird as in August extent reduced by far more than area and the ratio went into reverse. The Great Arctic Cyclone Aug 2-12 (but look at the timing when the ratio plunged)?

2019 is dithering.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 11:40:08 AM by gerontocrat »
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Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2001 on: August 05, 2019, 10:39:05 AM »
Extent is 5.72 M sq km and area 3.90 M sq km. Therefore 1.82 is the water area of the 5.72
This represents 32 % of the 5.72 M sq km and so could be a measure of the slushiness of the total ice pack

Given JAXA and NSIDC have some significant differences in numbers, is it legit to mix and match their extents and areas? NSIDC extent for 8/4 is likely to be 5.97M km sq +/-30k with 82% certainty.

Did the math. Just a couple percentage points difference. Close enough for gov't work.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2002 on: August 05, 2019, 11:39:07 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 5,719,542 km2(August 4, 2019)

JAXA daily extent loss slightly below average.

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (48 days this year),
- extent is 125 k below 2012, 299 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 66 k, 7 k LESS than the average loss on this day of 73 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 8,552 k, 511 k (6.4%) greater than the average of 8,041 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 81.4% of the melting season done, with 41 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
**Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.88 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.70 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.14 million below the 2nd lowest  in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will gradually reduce until the minimum. 

Little change in the 5 day weather outlook maps from GFS...
Central Siberia looks very warm, with the warmth spreading to the far east.
Baffin Bay and the CAA will still be warm. The CAA may well get some rain.
Greenland gradually cooling from the above average temperatures.
And once again it looks like there will be not much export of ice down the Fram into the Greenland Sea.

To reach a record low extent remaining extent loss needs be just under 40% above average. 2012 is the only year where such a thing happened.
With, on average, over 4/5ths of melt completed, each day is now 2.5% of the time available for such an event.
However, daily area losses remain high and SSTs are at record highs.

Has the prospect of a record low minimum extent moved from possible to unlikely to very unlikely?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2003 on: August 05, 2019, 11:42:05 AM »

Given JAXA and NSIDC have some significant differences in numbers, is it legit to mix and match their extents and areas?
It is naughty to do so, even when the differences are minimal. Often used as classic denier ploy.

The dispersion graph I posted above is 5 day trailing average for both extent and area. i.e. even for NSIDC data one needs to keep apples with apples & bananas  with bananas or both go rotten.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 12:38:50 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2004 on: August 05, 2019, 02:47:50 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2005 on: August 05, 2019, 03:26:08 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 August 2019 (5 day trailing average)  3,817,543 km2

The turnaround continues for a sixth day.
Area loss well above average, but by a bit less.
                        
Total Area         
 3,817,543    km2      
-496,921    km2   <   2010's average.
-506,584    km2   <   2018
-1,262,715    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -94    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -6    k   loss
Central Seas__   -86    k   loss
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -12    k   loss
CAA_________   -10    k   loss
East Siberian__   -13    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -36    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -6    k   loss
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
- Area loss 94 k, 27 k MORE than the 2010's average loss of 67 k on this day.
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 158 k LESS than 2016, and 138 k MORE than 2012.

Outlook
We are now in the period of reducing daily area loss that that will slide to zero by mid-September.
On this day area loss high again, more than in 2016 and more than 2012 on this day.

Of note is:
- All the seven seas of the High Arctic are losing seas ice area at above average daily rates.
- The Chukchi & the ESS continue to lose area at a good clip,
- The Beaufort is showing increased ice melt,
- The CAA should be really warm all this week - and some rain. Also high daily melt.
- No Fram export - but Greenland area loss slowed.
- the CAB had a large area loss again, but are still above 2010's average .

Area continues 'twixt 2012 and 2016.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2006 on: August 05, 2019, 09:57:05 PM »
I took the monthly extent value for July 2019 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average July extent is now 9,18 M km². July 2019 had an average extent of 7,59 M km², which is 1,59 M km² less than that average and the lowest ever recorded since 1979, even lower than the previous record year 2012.
This low level also led the blue curve dive below the red long term linear trend line by -0,53 M km² (calculated from the trend line this July should have been at 8,12 M km²).
The slope of the overall trend line has decreased by one digit compared to April or May 2019.

See attached graph.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2007 on: August 06, 2019, 05:42:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 5th, 2019:
     5,612,507 km2, a century drop of -107,035 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2008 on: August 06, 2019, 07:58:07 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 5,612,507 km2(August 5, 2019)

For a change JAXA daily extent loss well above average - a century break.

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (49 days this year),
- extent is 36 k below 2012, 350 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 107 k, 39 k LESS than the average loss on this day of 68 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 8,659 k, 550 k (6.8%) greater than the average of 8,108 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 82.1% of the melting season done, with 39 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
**Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.84 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.66 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.18 million below the 2nd lowest in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will gradually reduce until the minimum. 

Very little change in the 5 day weather outlook maps from GFS...

- Central Siberia looks very warm, with the warmth spreading to the far east.
- Baffin Bay and the CAA will still be warm. 
- Greenland gradually cooling from the above average temperatures.
- And once again it looks like there will be not much export of ice down the Fram into the Greenland Sea.

For the next 3 days a little cyclone centered twixt the North Pole & Central Siberia. Effect?

To reach a record low extent remaining extent loss needs be just under 40% above average. 2012 is the only year where such a thing happened.
With, on average, over 4/5ths of melt completed, each day is now more than 2.5% of the time available for such an event.

However, daily area losses remain high and SSTs are at record highs, and perhaps today's large extent loss is a sign of things to come.

Has the prospect of a record low minimum extent moved from possible to unlikely to very unlikely?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Nikita

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2009 on: August 06, 2019, 09:14:42 AM »
- Extent loss on this day 107 k, 39 k LESS than the average loss on this day of 68 k.

Not LESS. MORE.

Espen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2010 on: August 06, 2019, 11:09:45 AM »
For the first time I have watched the Arctic, Foxe Basin is sea ice free before Hudson Bay according to Bremen:
« Last Edit: August 06, 2019, 06:18:03 PM by Espen »
Have a ice day!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2011 on: August 06, 2019, 03:44:54 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 August 2019 (5 day trailing average)  3,731,201  km2

The turnaround continues for a seventh day.
Area loss well above average, but by a bit less again.
                        
Total Area         
 3,731,201    km2      
-523,033    km2   <   2010's average.
-514,807    km2   <   2018
-1,298,300    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -86    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas__   -78    k   loss
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -11    k   loss
CAA_________   -17    k   loss
East Siberian__   -17    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -25    k   loss
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
- Area loss 86 k, 28 k MORE than the 2010's average loss of 58 k on this day.
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 195 k LESS than 2016, and 123 k MORE than 2012.

Outlook
We are now in the period of reducing daily area loss that that will slide to zero by mid-September.
On this day area loss high again, more than in 2016 and more than 2012 on this day.

Of note is:
- All the seven seas of the High Arctic are losing seas ice area at above average daily rates.
- The Chukchi & the ESS continue to lose area at a good clip,
- The Beaufort is showing increased ice melt,
- The CAA should be really warm all this week again - and some rain. Also high daily melt.
- No or little Fram export - and Greenland area loss up.
- the CAB had a large area loss again, but is still above 2010's average .

Area continues 'twixt 2012 and 2016.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

DrTskoul

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2012 on: August 06, 2019, 04:30:04 PM »
The slope mirrors 2012.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2013 on: August 06, 2019, 05:16:23 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2014 on: August 06, 2019, 05:58:01 PM »
For the first time I have watched the Arctic, Foxe Basin is sea ice before Hudson Bay according to Bremen:

Clue? - temperatures have been somewhat like this for some time.
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Espen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2015 on: August 06, 2019, 06:19:16 PM »
For the first time I have watched the Arctic, Foxe Basin is sea ice before Hudson Bay according to Bremen:

Clue? - temperatures have been somewhat like this for some time.

The text above should have been:
For the first time I have watching the Arctic, Foxe Basin is sea ice free before Hudson Bay according to Bremen:
Have a ice day!

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2016 on: August 06, 2019, 06:21:23 PM »
For the first time I have watched the Arctic, Foxe Basin is sea ice before Hudson Bay according to Bremen:

Clue? - temperatures have been somewhat like this for some time.

It's the persistent ridge over Greenland that is bombing the CAA with heat.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2017 on: August 06, 2019, 06:44:07 PM »
Foxe basin is not ice-free in reality .. certainly not yesterday . Worldview shows almost identical rembants as a week ago .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

philopek

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2018 on: August 06, 2019, 07:21:02 PM »
Foxe basin is not ice-free in reality .. certainly not yesterday . Worldview shows almost identical rembants as a week ago .. b.c.

That's correct, just seen U'corn's pic as per yesterday in the melting season thread so that's answered for sure at least for the expert's eyes.

I have trouble sometimes to distinguish clouds and ice which is why i rely on rammb's natural color layer that shows ice quite well by filtering clouds to a certain degree.

Espen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2019 on: August 06, 2019, 07:29:18 PM »
Read: according to Bremen
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AmbiValent

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2020 on: August 06, 2019, 07:35:43 PM »
In Wipneus' list in #1968, NSIDC area was on 13th place and extent in 23rd with data from July 31st.

Now area is still in 13th, but extent is now in 14th.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2021 on: August 06, 2019, 07:42:19 PM »
Read: according to Bremen

 Hi Espen .. I have no plans to shoot the messenger .. just reinforces why I look at the ice before I look at Bremen or other data .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2022 on: August 07, 2019, 05:43:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 6th, 2019:
     5,511,461 km2, a century drop of -101,046 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

wallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2023 on: August 07, 2019, 06:51:49 AM »
When your going down the highway at 100mph and another vehicle goes past you at 150mph. :o

bbr2314

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2024 on: August 07, 2019, 06:57:41 AM »
When your going down the highway at 100mph and another vehicle goes past you at 150mph. :o
If recent modeling is correct 2019 will be pedal to the metal as 2012 slows down post-GAC drop. The 12z Euro is a DOOZY and would wipe the Laptev and ESS remnants thoroughly by D10.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2025 on: August 07, 2019, 08:23:03 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 5,511,461 km2(August 6, 2019)

For a change JAXA daily extent loss again well above average - another century break. But 2012 was higher.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record (after 49 days this year),
- extent is 17 k above 2012, 357 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 101 k, 26 k LESS than the average loss on this day of 75 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 8,760 k, 577 k (7.0%) greater than the average of 8,183 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 82.8% of the melting season done, with 38 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
**Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.81 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.63 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.21 million below the 2nd lowest in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will gradually reduce until the minimum. 

Very little change in the 5 day weather outlook maps from GFS...

- Central Siberia looks very warm, with the warmth spreading to the far east.
- Baffin Bay and the CAA will still be warm. 
- Greenland gradually cooling from the above average temperatures.
- And once again it looks like there will be not much export of ice down the Fram into the Greenland Sea.
- For the next 2-3 days a little cyclone centered twixt the North Pole & Central Siberia and then maybe Southerly winds from a very warm Siberia may push warmth across the Arctic Ocean.
____________________________________________________________
And a final thought - Tealight's AWP graphs for 2019 are stunning. Some of that warming potential has resulted in well above SSTs. Surely this must encourage further melt and inhibit initial refreeze.

A late minimum and a slow refreeze?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2026 on: August 07, 2019, 10:03:42 AM »
they do say LESS is MORE ! :)   B.C.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2027 on: August 07, 2019, 03:43:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 August 2019 (5 day trailing average)  3,666,090 km2

The 7 day turnaround has stopped.
On this day area loss close to average.
                        
Total Area         
 3,666,090    km2      
-529,881    km2   <   2010's average.
-513,403    km2   <   2018
-1,316,789    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -65    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -7    k   loss
Central Seas__   -58    k   loss
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss
CAA_________   -14    k   loss
East Siberian__   -18    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -10    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
- Area loss 65 k, 5 k MORE than the 2010's average area loss of 60 k on this day.
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 197 k LESS than 2016, and 133 k MORE than 2012.

Outlook
We are now in the period of reducing daily area loss that that will slide to zero by mid-September.
On this day area loss average, close to 2016 and less than 2012 on this day.

Of note is:
- Only some of the seven seas of the High Arctic are losing seas ice area at above average daily rates.
- The Chukchi has slowed,
- The ESS & the Beaufort are losing area at a good clip,,
- The CAA should be really warm all this week again - and some rain. Also high daily melt.
- No or little Fram export - and Greenland area loss up again. This may change after a few days.
- the CAB had a low area loss and  is still above the 2010's average .

Area continues 'twixt 2012 and 2016.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2028 on: August 07, 2019, 04:30:50 PM »
From NSIDC monthly analysis at https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ the July Monthly average graph

2019 well below the trend line, and a record low. (I added the red line)

Also impressive photo attached.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2029 on: August 07, 2019, 04:34:13 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2030 on: August 07, 2019, 05:38:52 PM »
If the data is available, I'm curious to know what the record minumum is for non-CAB regions as a whole. It occurs to me that this is one record with reach in 2019.

 

be cause

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2031 on: August 07, 2019, 06:03:01 PM »
just in passing .. in G's photo the floe to the right that looks like an island in it's own bay is due north of me , and is probably the most solid thing between me and the North pole . I feel exposed to changes happening 'up north' . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2032 on: August 08, 2019, 05:45:26 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 7th, 2019:
     5,416,345 km2, a drop of -95,116 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2033 on: August 08, 2019, 08:06:03 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 5,416,345 km2(August 7, 2019)

JAXA daily extent loss again well above average - nearly another century break.
But 2012 was higher.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record (after 49 days at lowest this year),
- extent is 41 k above 2012, 368 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 95 k, 21 k more than the average loss on this day of 74 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 8,855 k, 598 k (7.2%) greater than the average of 8,257 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 83.6% of the melting season done, with 37 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
**Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.79 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.61 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.23 million below the 2nd lowest in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will gradually reduce until the minimum. 

GFS 5 day weather outlook
- Central Siberia looks very warm, with the warmth spreading to the far east and Alaska
- Western Canada to the south of Hudson Bay cold
- Baffin Bay and the CAA will still be warm. 
- Greenland gradually cooling from the above average temperatures.
- And once again it looks like there will be not much export of ice down the Fram into the Greenland Sea.
- A cyclone centered over Novaya Zemla bringing southerly winds from a very warm Siberia may push warmth across the Arctic Ocean.
____________________________________________________________
SSTs mostly well above average. Encourages further melt and inhibits initial refreeze?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2034 on: August 08, 2019, 08:22:28 AM »
And here is the plume of resulting minima from the previous 10 years' remaining area losses.
The push is for a result below the magic (for me) 4 million km2 number.

And also the 365 day trailing average graph. It is possible that this will be in record territory in early 2020.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2035 on: August 08, 2019, 08:32:30 AM »
That 365 days trailing average graph is very interesting and seems to show clear rebounds after the two lowest years (2007 and 2012) but not after 2016, which was third and practically a tie with 2007.

So I wonder what the future will hold ...
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2036 on: August 08, 2019, 11:44:26 AM »
That 365 days trailing average graph is very interesting and seems to show clear rebounds after the two lowest years (2007 and 2012) but not after 2016, which was third and practically a tie with 2007.

I think the water has just become too warm.

Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2037 on: August 08, 2019, 02:40:42 PM »
The trailing graph might be more fun to see of the global ice.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2038 on: August 08, 2019, 03:32:35 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 August 2019 (5 day trailing average)  3,609,532 km2

The 7 day turnaround has stopped.
On this day area loss close to average again.
                        
Total Area         
 3,609,532    km2      
-532,996    km2   <   2010's average.
-524,276    km2   <   2018
-1,336,787    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -57    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas__   -48    k   loss
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________   -12    k   loss
East Siberian__   -16    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -10    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
- Area loss 57 k, 1 k LESS than the 2010's average area loss of 58 k on this day.
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 186 k LESS than 2016, and 180 k MORE than 2012.

Outlook
We are now in the period of reducing daily area loss that that will slide to zero by mid-September.
On this day area loss average, less than 2016 and less than 2012 on this day.

Of note is:
- Only some of the seven seas of the High Arctic are losing seas ice area at above average daily rates.
- The Chukchi area loss has slowed to a crawl,
- Beaufort sea loss slowed to half yesterday's,
- The ESS is losing area at a good clip,,
- The CAA should still be really warm all this week again - and some rain. Also high daily melt.
- No or little Fram export - and Greenland area loss up again. This may change after a few days.
- the CAB had a low area loss again and  is still above the 2010's average .

Area continues 'twixt 2012 and 2016.
________________________________________________________________________
Currently looks very much like an end of season area loss slow down.
GFS weather forecast suggests a change may be on its way to give area loss a fillip.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2039 on: August 08, 2019, 05:24:28 PM »
2019 could find itself several hundred thousand more than 2012 within 3 or 4 days.

be cause

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2040 on: August 08, 2019, 05:42:28 PM »
I still expect to see 100 k days in the CAB before season's end .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2041 on: August 08, 2019, 05:51:26 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

philopek

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2042 on: August 08, 2019, 06:00:02 PM »
2019 could find itself several hundred thousand more than 2012 within 3 or 4 days.

True, but also several hundred less than 2012 within 2 weeks, so we're back to where we were months ago, all depends on the weather and a big storm in September can finish the ice off to uncharted territory still.

Only because the 2012 GAC date has passed, does not mean that a later or several smaller later storms can't finish the job.

To make sure there is no misunderstanding, I'm in the 2nd place group but <3 million km2 are also possible.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2043 on: August 08, 2019, 09:07:23 PM »
2019 could find itself several hundred thousand more than 2012 within 3 or 4 days.

2019 has been surprisingly consistent lately. The NSIDC average extent drop has been staying right around 100k per day.

Looking forward to seeing what happens over the next week or so. 2012 may hold the lead for a while, but I doubt it can hang on to it.

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2044 on: August 09, 2019, 03:12:52 AM »
2019 could find itself several hundred thousand more than 2012 within 3 or 4 days.

Yes. And almost certainly will unless it can find the energy to either melt or concentrate 430k km sq over the next three days, JAXA extent will likely be +200k as of the 10th; stands at +40k now. 2012 loses 440k in extent over those three days, or 146.66k/day.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2045 on: August 09, 2019, 05:46:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 8th, 2019:
     5,334,273 km2, a drop of -82,072 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2046 on: August 09, 2019, 06:54:10 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 5,334,273 km2(August 8, 2019)

JAXA daily extent loss on this day was at the 10 year average - but that day's average was high, distorted by 2012's extreme daily loss.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record (after 49 days at lowest this year),
- extent is 142 k above 2012, 372 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 82 k, 2 k less than the average loss on this day of 84 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 8,937 k, 596 k (7.1%) greater than the average of 8,371 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 84.4% of the melting season done, with 36 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.79 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.61 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.23 million below the 2nd lowest in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will gradually reduce until the minimum. 

GFS 5 day weather outlook
- Central Siberia looks very warm, with the warmth spreading to the far east and Alaska
- from Western Canada to the south of Hudson Bay a band of cold,
- Baffin Bay and the CAA still warm. 
- Greenland gradually cooling from the above average temperatures.
- And once again it looks like there will be not much export of ice down the Fram into the Greenland Sea.
- A cyclone centered over Novaya Zemla bringing southerly winds from a very warm Siberia may push warmth across the Arctic Ocean. and then from the central arctic towards the Barents.
____________________________________________________________
To be a record low, remaining melt needs to be 40% above the average. No year has ever done this.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2047 on: August 09, 2019, 03:23:08 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 August 2019 (5 day trailing average)  3,583,842 km2

The 7 day turnaround has stopped.
On this day area loss collapsed.
                        
Total Area         
 3,583,842    km2      
-506,255    km2   <   2010's average.
-499,532    km2   <   2018
-1,323,315    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -26    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -4    k   loss
Central Seas__   -22    k   loss
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -8    k   loss
East Siberian__   -20    k   loss
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
- Area loss 26 k, 27 k LESS than the 2010's average area loss of 53 k on this day.
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 152 k LESS than 2016, and 248 k MORE than 2012.

Outlook
We are now in the period of reducing daily area loss that that will slide to zero by mid-September.
On this day area loss average, much less than 2016 and much less than 2012 on this day.

Of note is:
- Most of the seven seas of the High Arctic are losing seas ice area at well below average daily rates or even gaining area.
- The Chukchi & Beaufort seas area loss have slowed to a crawl,
- The ESS is still losing area at a good clip,,
- The CAA should still be really warm all this week again - and some rain. Also high daily melt.
- No or little Fram export - but Greenland area loss slowed.
- The CAB gained area and thus is even more above the 2010's average .
________________________________________________________________________
Area continues 'twixt 2012 and 2016 but this slow loss if continued could change things quickly.
NSIDC daily extent loss was a measly 2k on this day.
GFS weather forecast suggests a change may be on its way to give area loss a fillip.
Maybe this collapse in loss is temporary.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

AndyW

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2048 on: August 09, 2019, 03:34:14 PM »
Extent is 5.72 M sq km and area 3.90 M sq km. Therefore 1.82 is the water area of the 5.72
This represents 32 % of the 5.72 M sq km and so could be a measure of the slushiness of the total ice pack

Given JAXA and NSIDC have some significant differences in numbers, is it legit to mix and match their extents and areas? NSIDC extent for 8/4 is likely to be 5.97M km sq +/-30k with 82% certainty.

Did the math. Just a couple percentage points difference. Close enough for gov't work.

I was always under the assumption that NSIDC used a different algorithm to JAXA, which would perhaps explain the difference.

Neither are parts of the government.

Andy

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2049 on: August 09, 2019, 10:03:42 PM »
NSIDC daily extent