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Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2200 on: August 21, 2019, 10:18:43 PM »
2nd or 3rd place for SIE and SIA more and more likely. Whatever it is, the ice is in terrible shape and the impact on NH weather will continue. I will be intently interested in how the approaching freeze season behaves.

With only 10k km2 (NSIDC) to 50k km2 (JAXA) between 2007 and 2016, 2nd or 4th is actually much more likely than 2nd or 3rd.

Just sayin'...

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2201 on: August 21, 2019, 11:31:42 PM »
It's currently headed for 2nd in extent and 2nd or 3rd in area. But the race is not over.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2202 on: August 22, 2019, 05:49:27 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 21st, 2019:
     4,471,119 km2, a drop of -36,648 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2203 on: August 22, 2019, 11:28:36 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,471,119 km2(August 21, 2019)

JAXA daily extent loss on this day a bit up but still a bit below average.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record (49 days at lowest this year),
- Extent is 398 k greater than 2012, 423 k less than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 37 k, 7 k less than the average loss on this day of 44 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 9,800 k, 656 k (7.2%) greater than the average of 9,144 k loss from maximum by this day,
- Extent loss from maximum to date is also second highest in at least the last 12 years, only second to 2012,
- On average 92.5% of the melting season done, with 23 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt (0.78 million km) would give a minimum of 3.73 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.55 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.29 million below the 2nd lowest in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will gradually but erratically reduce until the minimum. 
____________________________________________________________
Due to events my postings will also be erratic as to timing.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2204 on: August 22, 2019, 03:32:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 August 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,056,804  km2

On this day area loss fell from extremely below average to near as dammit zero,
as did NSIDC daily extent loss

                        
Total Area         
 3,056,804    km2      
-504,651    km2   <   2010's average.
-357,697    km2   <   2018
-1,336,750    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -6    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    2    k   gain
Central Seas__   -7    k   loss
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
- Area loss 6 k, 35 k less than the 2010's average area loss of 41 k on this day,
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 93 k LESS than 2016, and 244 k MORE than 2012.

On this day area loss much less than 2012 and 2016
while NSIDC daily extent loss also very low at 12 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook
We are now well into the period of reducing and very variable daily area loss that that will slide to zero by mid-September.
Some postings on the melting thread spoke about how current winds dispersing ice might reduce area and extent data measurements - maybe only temporarily. But this late in the season getting back any "shortfall" in area and extent losses is more difficult to get back (it is a matter of arithmetic).

But even so, end of season wobbles makes comments out-of-date almost before they are typed. Tomorrow could be a complete switcheroo or continued near to zero losses. Just sit back and watch.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2205 on: August 22, 2019, 07:01:37 PM »
Although area loss is very small, there are still two seas that lose > 5 % to almost 10 % of their ice every day; they are ESS and Laptev.

Patrice

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2206 on: August 22, 2019, 08:09:52 PM »
Does snowfall cause area numbers to go up ? I can easily imagine that snow cover would turn wet/partialy ponded ice to 100% concentration ice (at least on the sensors, but partially rightfully so).

Comradez

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2207 on: August 22, 2019, 08:19:09 PM »
I am actually really surprised how tenacious some of the silky-looking ice has been in the ESS/Laptev and along the fringes during August while being surrounded by warm sea surface temps. 

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2208 on: August 22, 2019, 09:03:58 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2209 on: August 23, 2019, 05:39:30 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 22st, 2019:
    I am unable to reach the ADS NIPR page.  ???
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. JAXA 4.47M km2
There is the graph now but it has not been updated.
I will go to bed...
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 07:54:12 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

MrGreeny

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2210 on: August 23, 2019, 06:41:12 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 22st, 2019:
    I am unable to reach the ADS NIPR page.  ???
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Site is back up I think.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2211 on: August 23, 2019, 03:12:24 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 August 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,044,888  km2

On this day area loss rose from near as dammit zero to extremely below average,
while NSIDC daily extent loss rose to a well above average 94k

                        
Total Area         
 3,044,888    km2      
-483,000    km2   <   2010's average.
-339,206    km2   <   2018
-1,332,712    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -12    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    2    k   gain
Central Seas__   -14    k   loss
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
- Area loss 12 k, 25 k less than the 2010's average area loss of 37 k on this day,
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 88 k LESS than 2016, and 280 k MORE than 2012.

On this day area loss much less than 2012 and less than 2016
while NSIDC daily extent loss high at 94 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook
We are now well into the period of reducing and very variable daily area loss that that will slide to zero by mid-September.
Some postings on the melting thread spoke about how current winds dispersing ice might reduce area and extent data measurements - maybe only temporarily. But this late in the season getting back any "shortfall" in area and extent losses is more difficult to get back (it is a matter of arithmetic).

But even so, end of season wobbles makes comments out-of-date almost before they are typed. Tomorrow could be a complete switcheroo (as in NSIDC Extent) or continued near to zero losses. Just sit back and watch.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2212 on: August 23, 2019, 03:15:14 PM »
The slowdown continues. I would be very surprised to see early minimums in SIE and SIA but then I am always surprised.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2213 on: August 23, 2019, 03:28:43 PM »
There is no JAXA data today (yet) so as a consolation prize I've brought out of storage again the analysis of NSIDC area data using the same layout as the postings for JAXA Extent data


NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):-  3,044,888  Km2(August 22, 2019)

NSIDC  daily area loss in the last 4-5 days was below average.

Average remaining area loss would result in a minimum of 2.56 million Km2, 0.31 km2 above 2012, 0.11 million km2 above 2016.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2214 on: August 23, 2019, 04:51:41 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2215 on: August 23, 2019, 05:34:56 PM »
Analysis of area data "relative area wise" Aug 6-Aug 22:
Losses of 61-65% occurred in ESS, Laptev and Chukchi, and these seas still lose some more ice.
Beaufort Sea lost 36 % of its ice, followed by CAA (20%)
Small changes were observed in CAB (-8 %) and Grønland Sea (+4 %)

Seas with little or no ice were not analysed.

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2216 on: August 23, 2019, 05:47:08 PM »
There is no JAXA data today

I suggests it will be JAXA @ 4.42M+/-10k @ 51%, +/-20k @ 71%, +/-30k at 86%.


Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2217 on: August 24, 2019, 06:03:12 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 22nd, 2019:
     4,442,272 km2, a drop of -28,847 km2.

August 23rd, 2019:
     4,412,266 km2, a drop of -30,006 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2218 on: August 24, 2019, 11:36:01 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,412,266 km2(August 23, 2019)

JAXA daily extent loss in the last week quite a bit below average.

- Extent is still 2nd lowest in the satellite record (49 days at lowest this year),
- Extent is 495 k greater than 2012, 400 k less than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 30 k, 24 k less than the average loss on this day of 54 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 9,859 k, 603 k (6.5%) greater than the average of 9,256 k loss from maximum by this day,
- Extent loss from maximum to date is also second highest in at least the last 12 years, only second to 2012,
- On average 93.7% of the melting season done, with 21 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt (0.78 million km) would give a minimum of 3.79 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.61 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.23 million below the 2nd lowest in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will gradually but erratically reduce until the minimum. 
____________________________________________________________
Due to an event called the end of the English Summer my postings will also be erratic as to timing.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2219 on: August 24, 2019, 11:53:56 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,412,266 km2(August 23, 2019)

Some extra stuff

Projections of the minimum
The first graph attached shows the range of projections to the minimum using the remaining melt in the last 10 years. The variation from the average of that melt ranges from + 27% (2016) to - 25% (2017), giving a range of projected minima from 3.62 to 3.94 million km2. The increases confidence in a prediction that despite current low daily extent loss, the 2019 minimum will be 2nd lowest in the satellite record.

The first table attached shows the daily melt in selected years from now to the average date of minimum.

Current position
The next table shows that despite slow daily extent losses, if extent losses now completely stopped, 2019 would be the 6th lowest minimum in the satellite record, and likely to be 4th by the end of the month, leaving 2007, 2016, and 2019 as the only years lower.

365 Day trailing Averages
The last graph shows that this continues to decline, and could easily at record lows by early 2020.   This can happen despite a minimum well above 2012. It is possible because that 2012 minimum was very short-term, extent recovering strongly and very quickly. A tortoise (2019) and the hare (2012) event. 

Another look in about a week's time, unless events (in the Arctic or closer to home) intervene.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2220 on: August 24, 2019, 03:37:29 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 August 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,026,582  km2

On this day area loss rose from extremely below average to very much below average,
while NSIDC daily extent increased by 23k (in contrast to a 94k drop the previous day)

                        
Total Area         
 3,026,582    km2      
-476,647    km2   <   2010's average.
-342,314    km2   <   2018
-1,331,925    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -18    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas__   -22    k   loss
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -11    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
- Area loss 18 k, 16 k less than the 2010's average area loss of 34 k on this day,
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 83 k LESS than 2016, and 285 k MORE than 2012.

On this day area loss a bit less than 2012 and a bit less than 2016 while NSIDC daily extent gain of 23 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook
We are now well into the period of reducing and very variable daily area loss that that will slide to zero by mid-September.

Some postings on the melting thread spoke about how current winds dispersing ice might reduce area and extent data measurements - maybe only temporarily. But this late in the season getting back any "shortfall" in area and extent losses is more difficult to get back (it is a matter of arithmetic).

But even so, end of season wobbles makes comments out-of-date almost before they are typed. There is supposed to be a weather event starting very soon, lots of wind and stuff. We will see. Just sit back and watch.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2221 on: August 24, 2019, 04:35:04 PM »
With the ADS-JAXA ASI extent of August 23rd, 2019 is the sixth lowest on record.
I was expecting to have this value on the 20th or 21st. The melt/compaction has been slow.

Now here comes the Arctic cyclone, so let's wait to see what happens at the end of this melting season. The next challenge is 2011&2015 with 4.26M km2, and later on, 2007&2016 with 4.02M km2
« Last Edit: August 24, 2019, 04:42:18 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

AndyW

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2222 on: August 24, 2019, 05:17:15 PM »
Forgetting weather currently, the ice pack looks like it may get down to sub 4million km2 but not guaranteed.

August is a different kettle of fish compared to July unlike 2012, most years are.

I still don't think there is enough evidence for melt ponds etc giving a link to really low summer minimums from the Winter extent.

That might change in the next few years.


Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2223 on: August 24, 2019, 05:40:49 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2224 on: August 25, 2019, 05:45:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 24th, 2019:
     4,390,697 km2, a drop of -21,569 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 & 2016 highlighted).

P.S. I am not surprised with the low drop today. With the storm, I was expecting some dispersion before having some ASI melt.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2225 on: August 25, 2019, 12:05:29 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,390,697 km2(August 24, 2019)

JAXA daily extent loss in the last week quite a bit below average and even more so on this day.

- Extent is still 2nd lowest in the satellite record (49 days at lowest this year),
- Extent is 571 k greater than 2012, 359 k less than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 22 k, 32 k less than the average loss on this day of 54 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 9,880 k, 580 k (6.1%) greater than the average of 9,310 k loss from maximum by this day,
- Extent loss from maximum to date is also second highest in at least the last 12 years, only second to 2012,
- On average 94.2% of the melting season done, with 20 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt (0.57 million km) would give a minimum of 3.82 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.64 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.20 million below the 2nd lowest in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will gradually but erratically reduce until the minimum. 

On average, each day now consumes 5% of the time available for further extent loss. So far weather events seem to be favourable to slow ice extent loss. If, as in 2017 & 2018, extent loss from now was very low, the final minimum could be in excess of 4 million km2 in 4th place.
____________________________________________________________
Due to an event called the end of the English Summer my postings will also be erratic as to timing.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2019, 12:15:56 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2226 on: August 25, 2019, 03:56:26 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 August 2019 (5 day trailing average) 2,991,523 km2

On this day area loss rose from very much below average to just a bit above average,
while in contrast NSIDC daily extent increased by 17k ( 23k increase the previous day)

                        
Total Area         
 2,991,523    km2      
-482,660    km2   <   2010's average.
-356,375    km2   <   2018
-1,340,569    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -35    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    2    k   gain
Central Seas__   -36    k   loss
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -27    k   loss
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
- Area loss 35 k, 10 k more than the 2010's average area loss of 25 k on this day,
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 62 k LESS than 2016, and 267 k MORE than 2012.

On this day area loss a bit more than 2012 and a bit less than 2016.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook
We are now well into the period of reducing and very variable daily area loss that that will slide to zero by mid-September.

GFS shows a strongish  flow of warmish air from the mid-Atlantic into and across the Arctic Ocean that is already underway and will continue for the next 5 days or so. This late in the season getting back any "shortfall" in area and extent losses is more difficult to get back (it is a matter of arithmetic). But it may temporarily accelerate melt and / or compaction on the Atlantic Front and across the ice edge parallel to the Russian shore. This my first and last little weather prediction that belongs to me.

But even so, end of season wobbles makes comments out-of-date almost before they are typed. Just sit back and watch.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Steven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2227 on: August 25, 2019, 04:05:15 PM »
NSIDC daily area is now 2.88 million km2, which is second lowest for the date (slightly below 2016):



The year-to-date minimum for 2019 so far is third lowest on record:

     year    minimum
1   2012   2.23 million km2
2   2016   2.46
3   2019  2.88 (year-to-date)
4   2011   2.92
5   2007   2.95
6   2017   3.00
7   2010   3.07
8   2008   3.08
9   2015   3.14
10 2018   3.24

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2228 on: August 25, 2019, 04:10:37 PM »
NSIDC Area 24 Aug - Bits & Pieces

I thought that by now southerly winds would block any increase in Greenland Sea Ice Area. I was wrong.

The total area loss on this day was 35k. The lion's share was in the Central Arctic Sea - 27k, 75%. All other seas were pretty much either minimal loss or minimal gain.


"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

petm

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2229 on: August 25, 2019, 04:15:33 PM »
NSIDC Area 24 Aug - Bits & Pieces
The lion's share was in the Central Arctic Sea

Interesting step pattern in the CAB. We could be starting down a 3rd step...

weatherdude88

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2230 on: August 25, 2019, 04:18:16 PM »
2016 loses 299,415 square kilometers of sea ice area over the next 4 days (74,853 square kilometers / day). 2019 needs to lose 214,871 square kilometers over the next 4 days to keep the pace (53,717 square kilometers / day).

It is likely 2019 will fall to the third lowest northern hemisphere NSIDC sea ice area value for the date, in the next 4 days.

bbr2314

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2231 on: August 25, 2019, 07:35:45 PM »
2016 loses 299,415 square kilometers of sea ice area over the next 4 days (74,853 square kilometers / day). 2019 needs to lose 214,871 square kilometers over the next 4 days to keep the pace (53,717 square kilometers / day).

It is likely 2019 will fall to the third lowest northern hemisphere NSIDC sea ice area value for the date, in the next 4 days.
Oh look you are back at a convenient time yet you are still wrong, nothing has changed!

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2232 on: August 25, 2019, 09:04:28 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2233 on: August 26, 2019, 05:48:03 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 25th, 2019:
     4,382,473 km2, a drop of -8,224 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2234 on: August 26, 2019, 08:40:44 AM »
2016 loses 299,415 square kilometers of sea ice area over the next 4 days (74,853 square kilometers / day). 2019 needs to lose 214,871 square kilometers over the next 4 days to keep the pace (53,717 square kilometers / day).

It is likely 2019 will fall to the third lowest northern hemisphere NSIDC sea ice area value for the date, in the next 4 days.
Oh look you are back at a convenient time yet you are still wrong, nothing has changed!

<snip; N.> How can you say they are wrong on a forwardlooking statement? And, I essentially agree, though I'd put it more likely to be the 30th or 31st. Just look at the trend.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2019, 11:04:34 PM by Neven »

weatherdude88

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2235 on: August 26, 2019, 03:00:01 PM »
For 8.25, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4.679 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 11,000 square kilometers.

2019 now has 767,000 square kilometers more sea ice extent than 2012. 2019 now has 104,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2016, 114,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2007, and 161,000 less sea ice than 2011 for the date.

We have our first candidate for the 2019 northern hemisphere sea ice minimum (historically unprecedented and unlikely for minimum this early). We have seen three consecutive days of gains in the data set. We are now 51,000 squared kilometers above the August 22nd value.

2019 could fall to 5th place in the next week.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2019, 03:07:12 PM by weatherdude88 »

weatherdude88

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2236 on: August 26, 2019, 03:19:34 PM »
For 8.25, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area value is 2,971,320 square kilometers (pole hole adjustment). This is an decrease of 20,203 square kilometers.

2019 is now only 38,896 square kilometers less than 2016. 2019 will likely fall to third place for the 8.26 value. 2019 would need to lose 32,097 square kilometers for 8.26, to keep the pace.

If 2019 does not lose 194,668 square kilometers (64,889 square kilometers / day) over the next 3 days, we will quickly fall into third place for the date.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2019, 07:46:27 PM by weatherdude88 »

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2237 on: August 26, 2019, 07:51:08 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

blumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2238 on: August 26, 2019, 08:31:18 PM »
How many days of increase in a row count as a freezing season?? ;)
“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.”

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2239 on: August 26, 2019, 09:44:41 PM »
How many days of increase in a row count as a freezing season?? ;)

Also the 5-day average is lower than today's number.

philopek

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2240 on: August 26, 2019, 09:55:43 PM »
How many days of increase in a row count as a freezing season?? ;)

Also the 5-day average is lower than today's number.

I think we once all came to terms that we can use the best available but nevertheless debatable numbers for the sake of comparing apples with apples.

Nevertheless I suggest that you won't further insist that the melting season has ended 3 days ago because in that case I would suggest to label those numbers as misleading and rely on those with a higher resolution that show a drop in the range of the average for the day of the year.

On the other hand some may find it interesting to question and discuss everything but the propose that you open a separate thread to keep this one on track.

Neither temperatures nor forecasts nor events imply that a refreeze could happen except perhaps surface water (melt ponds) with fresh water but that would only ad to "Area" which apparently indeed happens.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2241 on: August 27, 2019, 05:37:51 AM »
I cannot access the ADS-NIPR (JAXA) page.
I hope they will fix the problem ASAP.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

AndyW

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2242 on: August 27, 2019, 09:37:57 AM »
How many days of increase in a row count as a freezing season?? ;)

Also the 5-day average is lower than today's number.

I think we once all came to terms that we can use the best available but nevertheless debatable numbers for the sake of comparing apples with apples.

Nevertheless I suggest that you won't further insist that the melting season has ended 3 days ago because in that case I would suggest to label those numbers as misleading and rely on those with a higher resolution that show a drop in the range of the average for the day of the year.

On the other hand some may find it interesting to question and discuss everything but the propose that you open a separate thread to keep this one on track.

Neither temperatures nor forecasts nor events imply that a refreeze could happen except perhaps surface water (melt ponds) with fresh water but that would only ad to "Area" which apparently indeed happens.

It might have been easier just to say at this time of years winds can impact the extent more than at other times for periods of time :)

philopek

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2243 on: August 27, 2019, 10:53:52 AM »
It might have been easier just to say at this time of years winds can impact the extent more than at other times for periods of time :)

Yeah the balance between too short and too long is difficult for me to find, and old and persisting flaw while one can stop reading or skip it, hence, in case of doubt, I prefer too much over too little.

In short, you have a point here and I'm aware but somehow lost hahah..

<snip, try to quote only relevant parts and not entire back-and-forths, thanks; N.>
« Last Edit: August 27, 2019, 11:00:22 AM by Neven »

weatherdude88

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2244 on: August 27, 2019, 11:12:44 AM »
edit: JAXA loaded, however the data was not updated for 8.26 ; Thanks colchonero

For 8.25, the JAXA northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4,382,473 square kilometers. This is a decrease of 8,224 square kilometers.

2019 now has 646,163 square kilometers more of sea ice extent than 2012. 2019 now has 263,221 square kilometers less than 2016 and 264,128 square kilometers less than 2007.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2019, 01:03:20 PM by weatherdude88 »

colchonero

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2245 on: August 27, 2019, 12:21:20 PM »
That is data from yesterday.

philopek

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2246 on: August 27, 2019, 12:37:24 PM »
That is data from yesterday.

They're always from yesterday obviously and we are aware of it thanks.

colchonero

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2247 on: August 27, 2019, 12:41:40 PM »
"They're always from yesterday obviously and we are aware of it thanks".


No, that's not what I meant. That same data was POSTED yesterday. The data is for August 25th. So please check next time what somebody wanted to say, before trying to put someone down.

weatherdude88

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2248 on: August 27, 2019, 02:51:06 PM »
For 8.26, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4.654 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 25,000 square kilometers.

2019 now has 748,000 square kilometers more sea ice extent than 2012. 2019 now has 48,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2016, 146,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2007, and 189,000 less sea ice than 2011 for the date.

We still have our first candidate for the 2019 northern hemisphere sea ice minimum. We are now 26,000 squared kilometers above the August 22nd value.



weatherdude88

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2249 on: August 27, 2019, 03:02:05 PM »
For 8.26, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area value is 2,945,457 square kilometers (pole hole adjustment). This is an decrease of 25,863 square kilometers.

2019 NSIDC sea ice area is now in third place for the date. 2016 is currently undergoing tremendous losses, and appears to be long gone.