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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2400 on: September 10, 2019, 05:45:13 AM »
September 9th, 2019:
     4,170,163 km2, an increase of 6,693 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2401 on: September 10, 2019, 08:55:52 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,170,163 km2(September 9, 2019)

A minimal extent gain of 7k. Extent is 12k above the current minimum on 4th September. What a tease. 
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 888 k greater than 2012, 139 k greater than 2016. 2016 extent is now increasing.
- Extent gain on this day 7 k , 21 k different from  the average loss on this day of 14 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 10,101 k, 286 k (2.9%) greater than the average of 9,815 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 99.3% of the melting season done, with 4 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt (0.06 million km) would give a minimum of 4.11 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, 0.93 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.09  greater than 2016, 0.04 greater than 2007.

However, the uncertainty is such that I am posting the plume of projections instead of what is really a meaningless projection table.

Ice Melt Outlook ??

Each day now consumes 25 % of the average time available for further extent loss. However, in the the last 10 years there were as few as just -2 days or as many as 13 days of extent losses to come.

4 of the last 10 previous years remaining extent loss was not enough to bring 2019 to a minimum below the current minimum of 4.16 million km2 of 4th September, 6 out of 10 would bring the minimum lower..

Nevertheless, very high SSTs and bottom melt could still provide the conditions for a later date of minimum as well as a slow refreeze (if surface weather conditions are at least not unfavourable). However, unfavourable seems to be the flavour of the moment.
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2402 on: September 10, 2019, 03:40:47 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  2,951,476    km2

On this day the 5 day trailing average AREA increased by 14 k
One-day NSIDC EXTENT gain 34k, JAXA extent gain 7 k

                        
Total Area         
 2,951,476    km2      
-123,830    km2   <   2010's average.
-342,406    km2   <   2018
-1,103,551    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    14    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain
Central Seas__    7    k   gain
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________    7    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
- Area GAIN 14 k, 29 k different from the 2010's average area loss of 15 k on this day,
- Total area 3rd Lowest, 473 k MORE than 2016 (but 2016 is past its minimum), and 633 k MORE than 2012.
- Area is 41k more than the current minimum on 3rd September.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook
We are now well into the last few days of reducing and very variable daily area loss that that will slide to zero by around mid-September (or a bit later?, but 4 days in a row of increases from the minimum day of 3rd September makes the probability that the minimum has passed.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2403 on: September 10, 2019, 04:53:04 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2404 on: September 11, 2019, 05:44:46 AM »
September 10th, 2019:
     4,149,896 km2, a drop of -20,267 km2.
     2019 is now 4th lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2405 on: September 11, 2019, 06:42:45 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,149,896 km2(September 10, 2019)

An above average extent loss of 20k. Extent is at a new low. The "end of season wobbles" wobbles again. 
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 885 k greater than 2012, 73 k greater than 2016. but 2016 extent is now increasing, and 5k more than 2007
- Extent loss on this day 20 k, 25 k different from the average gain on this day of 5 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 10,121 k, 311 k (3.1%) greater than the average of 9,810 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 99.3% of the melting season done, with 3 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt (0.06 million km) would give a minimum of 4.09 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, 0.91 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.07  greater than 2016, 0.02 greater than 2007.

However, the uncertainty is such that I am posting the plume of projections in the next post as well as what is really a meaningless projection table (JAXA-Arc1).
____________________________________________________________
Ice Melt Outlook ??

Each day now consumes 33 % of the average time available for further extent loss. However, in the the last 10 years there were as few as just -3 days or as many as 11 days of extent losses to come.

4 of the last 10 previous years remaining extent loss was not enough to bring 2019 to a minimum below the current minimum of 4.15 million km2 of 10th September, 6 out of 10 would bring the minimum lower..

Nevertheless, very high SSTs and bottom melt could still provide the conditions for a later date of minimum as well as a slow refreeze (if surface weather conditions are at least not unfavourable). However, until this day unfavourable seemed to be the flavour of the moment.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2406 on: September 11, 2019, 06:46:52 AM »
JAXA Extent :-Plume of projections from last 10 years' daily changes attached.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2407 on: September 11, 2019, 03:45:30 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  2,961,227  km2


On this day the 5 day trailing average AREA increased by 10 k
One-day NSIDC EXTENT LOSS 27k (but above the current minimum), JAXA extent LOSS 20 k (new minimum) k

                        
Total Area         
 2,961,227    km2      
-107,141    km2   <   2010's average.
-320,923    km2   <   2018
-1,092,770    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    10    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas__    4    k   gain
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -13    k   loss
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    16    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
- Area GAIN 10 k, 21 k different from the 2010's average area loss of 11 k on this day,
- Total area 4th Lowest, 451 k MORE than 2016 (but 2016 is past its minimum), and 657 k MORE than 2012 and more than 2011 (EDIT)
- Area is 51 k more than the current minimum on 3rd September.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook
We are now well into the last few days of reducing and very variable daily area loss that that will slide to zero by around mid-September (or a bit later?, but 5 days in a row of increases from the minimum day of 3rd September makes it very probable that the minimum has passed.

But the book on JAXA & NSIDC Extent is still open.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2019, 09:33:25 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2408 on: September 11, 2019, 04:05:34 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  2,961,227  km2

Addendum:-

The Plume of projections says, " forget it, Pal, it's over".

But the Pacific end - Beaufort, Chukchi, and ESS have not quite given up - yet.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2409 on: September 11, 2019, 05:10:10 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Steven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2410 on: September 11, 2019, 09:29:08 PM »
Total area 3rd Lowest

It's 4th lowest.  2011 was lower on this date.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2411 on: September 11, 2019, 09:35:18 PM »
Total area 3rd Lowest

It's 4th lowest.  2011 was lower on this date.
Thanks.
Small whoops

Forgot all about 2011- brain with the glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica.
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2412 on: September 12, 2019, 05:49:15 AM »
September 11th, 2019:
     4,110,564 km2, a drop of -39,332 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

slow wing

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2413 on: September 12, 2019, 06:00:43 AM »
September 11th, 2019:
     4,110,564 km2, a drop of -39,332 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

Thanks Juan, always appreciated.


The forecast winds are so favourable for compaction of the ice pack that extent may well drop all the way below 4 million km2 over the course of the next several days, and before freeze-up finally takes hold.

That is so even though 4 million km2 has at times been below the predicted range obtained from extrapolating using the progressions to the minima from the previous years on record -- see the plots that gerontocrat has been posting. (After today's drop though, 4 million km2 is presumably back within the range from those projections.)


The significance of that, of course, is that 2019 would become only the second year to drop below the 4 million km2 marker and it would reach the second lowest minimum extent in the record, below all years except 2012 (all the way down at 3.18 million km2).
« Last Edit: September 12, 2019, 06:22:26 AM by slow wing »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2414 on: September 12, 2019, 07:48:12 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,110,564 km2(September 11, 2019)

A very much above average extent loss of 39k. Extent is at a new low. The "end of season wobbles" wobbles again, big-time. 
- Extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 876 k greater than 2012, 14 k less than 2016. but 2016 extent is now increasing, and 16k less than 2007
- Extent loss on this day 39 k, 40 k different from the average gain on this day of 1 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 10,161 k, 351 k (3.6%) greater than the average of 9,810 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 99.4% of the melting season done, with 2 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt (0.05 million km) would give a minimum of 4.05 million km2, 3rd lowest in the satellite record, 0.88 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.03  greater than 2016, 0.02 less than 2007.

However, the uncertainty is such that I am once again posting the plume of projections in the next post as well as what is really a meaningless projection table (JAXA-Arc1).
____________________________________________________________
Ice Melt Outlook ??

Each day now consumes 50 % of the average time available for further extent loss. However, in the the last 10 years there were as few as just -4 days or as many as 10 days of extent losses to come.

In just 1 of the last 10 previous years remaining extent loss is enough to bring 2019 to a minimum below 4.00 million km2.

Nevertheless, very high SSTs and bottom melt could still provide the conditions for a later date of minimum as well as a slow refreeze (if surface weather conditions are at least not unfavourable). However, until the last 2 days unfavourable seemed to be the flavour of the moment.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

zufall

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2415 on: September 12, 2019, 07:49:13 AM »
Distance from Sep 11 to the 2007 minimum of 4,065,739 km²: 44,825 km²
Distance from Sep 11 to the 2016 minimum of 4,017,264 km²: 93,300 km²

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2416 on: September 12, 2019, 08:20:47 AM »
JAXA EXTENT - Plume of projections attached.

Also table of current extent with previous years' minima

Also graph of the 365 days trailing average- progress to a new minimum in early 2020 continues - but depends on the freezing season for the remainder of this year.
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2417 on: September 12, 2019, 02:53:19 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2418 on: September 12, 2019, 03:15:08 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  2,952,478   km2


On this day the 5 day trailing average AREA decreased by 9 k
One-day NSIDC EXTENT LOSS 35k (but still above the current minimum), JAXA extent LOSS 39 k (new minimum) k

                        
Total Area         
 2,952,478    km2      
-116,850    km2   <   2010's average.
-328,054    km2   <   2018
-1,105,563    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -9    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -1    k   loss
Central Seas__   -8    k   loss
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -13    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
- Area LOSS 9 k, 2 k more than the 2010's average area loss of 7 k on this day,
- Total area 4th Lowest, 391 k MORE than 2016 (but 2016 is past its minimum), and 659 k MORE than 2012 and 5k more than 2011,
- Area is 42 k more than the current minimum on the 5th September.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook
We are now well into the very last days of reducing and very variable daily area loss that that will slide to zero by around mid-September (or a bit later?, but the current area being 42 k more than the current minimum on 3rd September makes it very probable that the minimum has passed. Or has it?

But the book on JAXA & NSIDC Extent is still open.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2419 on: September 12, 2019, 03:43:39 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  2,952,478   km2

Addendum


Once gain, it is the Beaufort, Chukchi, and ESS that refuse to let the melting season die.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2420 on: September 12, 2019, 05:54:04 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  2,952,478   km2

Addendum


Once gain, it is the Beaufort, Chukchi, and ESS that refuse to let the melting season die.

And that bumpy ride in the Beaufort suggests that ice being exported from the CAB is still melting out. Much of this ice is MYI.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2421 on: September 13, 2019, 05:48:42 AM »
September 12th, 2019:
     4,087,341 km2, a drop of -23,223 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2422 on: September 13, 2019, 09:54:39 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,087,341 km2(September 12, 2019)


- Extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 881 k greater than 2012, 116 k less than 2016. but 2016 extent is now increasing, and 41 k less than 2007, which had a late minimum,
- Extent loss on this day 23 k, 17 k more than the average loss on this day of 6 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 10,184 k, 368 k (3.7%) greater than the average of 9,816 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 99.6 % of the melting season done, with 1 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt (0.04 million km) would give a minimum of 4.05 million km2, 3rd lowest in the satellite record, 0.87 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.03  greater than 2016, 0.02 less than 2007.

____________________________________________________________
Ice Melt Outlook ??

Today now consumes 100 % of the average time available for further extent loss. However, in the the last 10 years there were as many as 9 days of extent losses to come.

In just 1 of the last 10 previous years (2010) remaining extent loss is enough to bring 2019 to a minimum below 4.00 million km2. In 5 of those 10 years the minimum has passed.

Nevertheless, very high SSTs and bottom melt could still provide the conditions for a later date of minimum as well as a slow refreeze (if surface weather conditions are at least not unfavourable).
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2423 on: September 13, 2019, 04:12:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  2,952,478   km2


On this day the 5 day trailing average AREA decreased by 2 k,
One-day NSIDC EXTENT CHANGE Zero (and still above the current minimum), JAXA extent LOSS 23 k (new minimum) k

                        
Total Area         
 2,950,355    km2      
-127,772    km2   <   2010's average.
-325,522    km2   <   2018
-1,115,855    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -2    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -0    k   loss
Central Seas__   -2    k   loss
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -9    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    13    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
- Area LOSS 2 k, 3 k different from the 2010's average area gain of 1 k on this day,
- Total area 4th Lowest, 319 k MORE than 2016 (but 2016 is past its minimum), and 674 k MORE than 2012 and 3k more than 2011,
- Area is 40 k more than the current minimum on the 5th September.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook
We are now, on average, at the end of the very last days of reducing and very variable daily area loss that that will slide to zero. The current area being 40 k more than the current minimum on 3rd September makes it very probable that the minimum has passed. Or has it?

But the book on JAXA & NSIDC Extent is still open.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2424 on: September 13, 2019, 04:17:55 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2425 on: September 13, 2019, 04:36:56 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 September 2019
Addendum


To repeat, once again, it is the Beaufort, Chukchi, and ESS that refuse to let the melting season die.

SST Anomalies still + 3 or +4 celsius at the Pacific end.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2426 on: September 13, 2019, 08:33:46 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 September 2019
Addendum


To repeat, once again, it is the Beaufort, Chukchi, and ESS that refuse to let the melting season die.

SST Anomalies still + 3 or +4 celsius at the Pacific end.

Indeed. My cousin just logged 9.5C sea temperature off Icy Cape. That will take considerable cold weather to freeze.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2427 on: September 14, 2019, 05:51:15 AM »
September 13th, 2019:
     4,053,800 km2, a drop of -33,541 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

P.S. 2019 has broken the 2007 minimum; on a yearly basis, 2019 is now 3rd lowest on record (above 2012 and 2016).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

zufall

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2428 on: September 14, 2019, 06:31:07 AM »
Distance from Sep 13 to the 2016 minimum of 4,017,264 km²: 36,536 km²

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2429 on: September 14, 2019, 06:38:48 AM »
With the ADS-JAXA ASI extent of September 13th, the daily minimum of 2019 is now the third-lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2430 on: September 14, 2019, 12:00:13 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,053,800 km2(September 13, 2019)


Extent loss in the last 4 days of 116 K, compared with an average of just 1k, yes, 1k, has changed things quite a bit.

- Extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 853 k greater than 2012, 186 k less than 2016. but 2016 extent is now increasing, and 82 k less than 2007,
- Extent loss on this day 34 k, 36 k different from the average gain on this day of 2 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 10,217 k, 404 k (4.1%) greater than the average of 9,814 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 100% % of the melting season done, with Zero days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt (0.04 million km) would give a minimum of 4.02 million km2, equal 2nd with 2016,  0.84 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2, equal to 2016, 0.05 less than 2007.

____________________________________________________________
Ice Melt Outlook ??

From today on average there are daily extent gains . However, in the the last 10 years there were 5 years with further extent loss, with up to 8 days of extent losses to come (2018).

In just 2 of the last 10 previous years (2010 & 2018) remaining extent loss is enough to bring 2019 to a minimum below 4.00 million km2.

Perhaps it ain't over yet - the Fat Lady has laryngitis?
____________________________________________________________
ps: If extent gains, when they come, are subdued, the 2019 September monthly average would be well below 2016, even if the daily minimum is above 2016. Something to look at on the NSIDC extent data.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2431 on: September 14, 2019, 02:15:34 PM »

P.S. 2019 has broken the 2007 minimum; on a yearly basis, 2019 is now 3rd lowest on record (above 2012 and 2016).

So if this were the annual minimum for 2019, we would end up in the most unlikely very narrow bin between 2016 and 2007...

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2432 on: September 14, 2019, 02:56:06 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2433 on: September 14, 2019, 03:23:25 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  2,952,322   km2


On this day the 5 day trailing average AREA increased by 2 k,
One-day NSIDC EXTENT LOSS 71k (and now a new minimum, 29k below the previous on4th Sep), JAXA extent LOSS 34 k (new minimum)

                        
Total Area         
 2,952,322    km2      
-144,739    km2   <   2010's average.
-321,304    km2   <   2018
-1,122,663    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    2    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas__    9    k   gain
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    14    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
- Area gain 2 k, 7k less than the 2010's average area gain of 9 k on this day,
- Total area 3rd Lowest, 246 k MORE than 2016 (but 2016 is past its minimum), and 693 k MORE than 2012,
- Area is 42 k more than the current minimum on the 5th September.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook
We are now, on average, at the end of the melting season. The current area being 42 k more than the current minimum on 3rd September makes it very probable that the minimum has passed. Or does it?

But the book on JAXA & NSIDC Extent is still open, both at new minimums.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2434 on: September 14, 2019, 04:07:56 PM »
NSIDC Total EXTENT (5-day)

2019 5-day extent is still 68k more than 2016. However, after minimum 2016 extent rose very quickly.

If in the remainder of September 2019 extent increases at the 10 year average rate, then the 2019 September average will be more than 50k below the 2016 September average.

Concentrating on a single day's measurement can lead to error.

See attached table

NSIDC Total Area as at 13 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  2,952,322   km2

It looks as if Fram Strait export has hit reverse gear. Greenland Sea 8k loss.

Of the rest, only the East Siberian Sea (ESS) has kept losing significant area on this day. (Chuchi almost finished - a 1k loss more than 10% of remaining area).

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

philopek

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2435 on: September 14, 2019, 07:28:28 PM »
So if this were the annual minimum for 2019, we would end up in the most unlikely very narrow bin between 2016 and 2007...

Yes, I would have to admit total defeat ;) ;)

I was and am sure that we shall go below 4M km2 and that we can't hit that tiny niche between 2007 and 2016. (of course we can but unlikely)

As per today we are exactly there and I remember the feeling as an IB at CME many decades ago, only that this time, losing would come at no cost but a profit ;)

« Last Edit: September 14, 2019, 08:32:33 PM by philopek »

Aluminium

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2436 on: September 14, 2019, 08:51:25 PM »
This niche is small but located near the most probable value according to trend line.

philopek

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2437 on: September 14, 2019, 09:03:07 PM »
This niche is small but located near the most probable value according to trend line.

Then we have another definition about what's probability and now that many former dates for lowest have past the window is getting narrower of course obviously ;)

Aluminium

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2438 on: September 14, 2019, 09:16:48 PM »
I'd say 4% before melting season. :) It's close to my estimation for the first place.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2439 on: September 15, 2019, 05:50:25 AM »
September 14th, 2019:
     4,025,718 km2, a drop of -28,082 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

P.S.: 2019 is 8,454 above the 2016 minimum of  4,017,264 km2.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2440 on: September 15, 2019, 08:28:38 AM »

P.S.: 2019 is 8,454 above the 2016 minimum of  4,017,264 km2.
...which means that more than one third of the daily loss of yesterday would be sufficient to reach the 2nd place for the annual minimum,
and
this loss repeated today would finally bring the SIE minimum for 2019 below 4.00 M km².

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2441 on: September 15, 2019, 09:44:55 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,025,718 km2(September 14, 2019)

Suddenly....
Extent loss in the last 5 days of 144 K, compared with an average of a net 8k gain over the 5 days,  has changed things quite a bit.


- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 829 k greater than 2012, 243 k less than 2016. but 2016 extent is now increasing quickly, and 72 k less than 2007,
- Extent loss on this day 28 k, 37 k different from the average gain on this day of 9 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 10,245 k, 441 k (4.5%) greater than the average of 9,804 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 100% % of the melting season done, with minus 1 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt (0.03 million km) would give a minimum of 3.99 million km2, equal 2nd with 2016,  0.81 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2, 0.03 million km2 less than 2016, 0.08 less than 2007.

____________________________________________________________
Ice Melt Outlook ??

From today on average there are daily extent gains . However, in the the last 10 years there were 4 years with further extent loss, 3 of which give a minimum of less than 4 million km2.  with up to 7 days of extent losses to come (2018).

- the Fat Lady still has laryngitis?
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2442 on: September 15, 2019, 10:18:46 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,025,718 km2(September 14, 2019)

Addendum:

JAXA extent September average

Yesterday, I showed how even if the 2019 minimum did not get below the 2016 value, it was likely the September average would.

The first table shows that with average extent increases from today, the 2019 September average would be below 2016 by nearly 200,000 km2. This is simply a reflection of that 2016 extent, after an early minimum, increased rapidly.

In my **arrogant opinion, the September average is a far better marker than the one-day value.

Plume of projections Of particular interest to me is in 2018, even though extent minimum was high, increases in the near term are so low as to be an outlier. In 2019, we have high SSTs and have had a record accumulated warming potential. Will this be enough to significantly slow refreeze so 2019 follows the 2018 path, or will a low minimum be followed by steep increases ?

365 day Average the current low extent has increased the rate of daily reduction in this average, giving a very early 2020 new record low. All will depend on extent increases during refreeze compared with 2018. Normally the difference between years declines as the freezing season progresses, which would delay or postpone indefinitely the date of the new record low.

Only a fool would dispute the above statements**
____________________________________________________________
** I've given up humble as part of my Grumpy Old Man Development Programme.

Arrogance is so much more fun than humbleness

_______________________________________________________________

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2443 on: September 15, 2019, 03:41:59 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  2,942,296   km2


The 2019 Minimum Has Passed?- the data won't say no, It won't say yes.

On this day the 5 day trailing average AREA decreased by 10 k,
One-day NSIDC EXTENT LOSS 38k (and again a new minimum, 67k below the previous on 4th Sep), JAXA extent LOSS 28 k (again a new minimum)

                        
Total Area         
 2,942,296    km2      
-183,301    km2   <   2010's average.
-337,698    km2   <   2018
-1,138,839    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -10    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas__   -2    k   loss
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
- Area loss 10 k, 29 k different from the 2010's average area gain of 19 k on this day,
- Total area 3rd Lowest, 181 k MORE than 2016 (but 2016 is past its minimum), and 691 k MORE than 2012,
- Area is 33 k more than the current minimum on the 5th September.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook
Not a clue

We are now, on average, beyond the end of the season of area & extent losses.

But the book on JAXA & NSIDC Extent is still open, both at new minimums.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Mleary01

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2444 on: September 15, 2019, 03:57:46 PM »
This is such an exciting end the the extent season - race to 2nd place almost complete  :o (though in one sense, that's not for the future!)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2445 on: September 15, 2019, 04:04:35 PM »
NSIDC 5 day Extent

Daily total still 70k above 2016 minimum, but estimate of Sept monthly average now 80k below 2016 Sept average.

Plume of projections shows 2018 as the outlier for very low extent increases during the next month.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2446 on: September 15, 2019, 04:40:42 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

sailor

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2447 on: September 15, 2019, 04:56:58 PM »
NSIDC 5 day Extent

Daily total still 70k above 2016 minimum, but estimate of Sept monthly average now 80k below 2016 Sept average.

Plume of projections shows 2018 as the outlier for very low extent increases during the next month.
Looking at the plume of projections I wonder how much the slow 2018 refreeze and the relatively cold winter has saved 2019 from being obliterated from all the warm weather. The inner CAB has shown more resilience than anticipated. Let’s see how it goes for 2019, high pressures and a relatively compact ice pack may allow rapid heat losses from all those overheated seas.
On the thin ice of modern life

NotaDenier

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2448 on: September 15, 2019, 05:07:35 PM »
NSIDC 5 day Extent

Daily total still 70k above 2016 minimum, but estimate of Sept monthly average now 80k below 2016 Sept average.

Plume of projections shows 2018 as the outlier for very low extent increases during the next month.
Looking at the plume of projections I wonder how much the slow 2018 refreeze and the relatively cold winter has saved 2019 from being obliterated from all the warm weather. The inner CAB has shown more resilience than anticipated. Let’s see how it goes for 2019, high pressures and a relatively compact ice pack may allow rapid heat losses from all those overheated seas.


Was it a cold winter?

I found this chart very interesting.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg228721.html#msg228721

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2449 on: September 15, 2019, 05:20:04 PM »
NSIDC 5 day Extent

Daily total still 70k above 2016 minimum, but estimate of Sept monthly average now 80k below 2016 Sept average.

Plume of projections shows 2018 as the outlier for very low extent increases during the next month.
Looking at the plume of projections I wonder how much the slow 2018 refreeze and the relatively cold winter has saved 2019 from being obliterated from all the warm weather. The inner CAB has shown more resilience than anticipated. Let’s see how it goes for 2019, high pressures and a relatively compact ice pack may allow rapid heat losses from all those overheated seas.

Don't high pressures generally mean calm seas?
And is not insolation almost zero?

And is it not strong winds from low pressure systems over open water that will suck heat from open water most rapidly? i.e. calm seas reduce the rate of heat loss?

Meanwhile .... it seems the melting season is not dead yet.

Fram export in reverse - strong Grrenald Sea area loss,
Beaufort, Chukchi & ESS continue to lose area.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)