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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #250 on: February 22, 2019, 05:03:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 21st, 2019:
     14,167,494 km2, an increase of  82,039 km2.
     2019 is now the 12th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #251 on: February 22, 2019, 08:33:38 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,167,494 km2(February 21, 2019)

- Extent gain 82k, 70k more than the average gain of 12k on this day.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 167 k (1. 7%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 18 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.50 million km2 (620k >2017's record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +2.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

I am wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains is from freezing and how much from existing ice being spread out due to winds and waves.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2019, 08:53:01 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #252 on: February 22, 2019, 02:17:13 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,862,839 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,862,839    km2      
 173,412    km2   >   2010's average.
 664,218    k   >   2018
-368,476    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    39    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__    7    k   gain
Other Seas___    17    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______    20    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area GAIN 39 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average gain of 15k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +2.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #253 on: February 22, 2019, 05:16:26 PM »
Travelling right now, couldn't release this earlier, sorry:

Feb 20:           14,085,455
Increase of            73,253
9th lowest on record
Might soon surpass 2012 to move into 10th place
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #254 on: February 23, 2019, 04:41:26 AM »
Travelling right now, couldn't release this earlier, sorry:

Feb 20:           14,085,455
Increase of            73,253
9th lowest on record
Might soon surpass 2012 to move into 10th place

Haven't I proven myself for the past 2 years? Can I please come out of detention?

<You haven't posted all that much. Anyway, I'm back now; N.>
« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 12:46:39 PM by Neven »
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Feeltheburn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #255 on: February 23, 2019, 05:06:20 AM »
Jaxa:

Feb 22: 14,194,560 km2
Increase of 27,066
12th place

NSIDC:
Feb 21: 14,727,000 km2
Increase of 46,000 km2
12th place

Will NSIDC finally reach 15,000,000 this year? Last time was March 20, 2014.
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Feeltheburn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #256 on: February 23, 2019, 05:18:05 AM »
The Perils of Projections.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.43 million km2 (550k >2017's record low maximum).


We are going to need some slowing if my vote of 14.125-14.375 is going to stay in the money!
Feel The Burn!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #257 on: February 23, 2019, 07:11:52 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,194,560 km2(February 22, 2019)

- Extent gain 27k, 12k more than the average gain of 15k on this day.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 179 k (1. 8%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 17 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.51 million km2 (630k >2017's record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +3 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

I am wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains is from freezing and how much from existing ice being spread out due to winds and waves.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Brigantine

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #258 on: February 23, 2019, 08:18:09 AM »
Previous maximums [JAXA extent, since 2005] in million square km: [re-ordered]

1. 2017: 13.88
2. 2018: 13.89
3. 2015: 13.94
4. 2016: 13.96
5.= 2006: 14.13
5.= 2011: 14.13
2019 to date: 14.17
7. 2007: 14.21
8. 2005: 14.4
9. 2014: 14.45
10. 2013: 14.52
11. 2009: 14.66
12. 2010: 14.69
13. 2012: 14.71
14. 2008: 14.77

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #259 on: February 23, 2019, 03:13:32 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,906,290 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,906,290    km2      
 207,217    km2   >   2010's average.
 697,779    k   >   2018
-328,868    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    43    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas__    11    k   gain
Other Seas___    26    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    18    k   gain
St Lawrence___    9    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area GAIN 43 k, 33 k more than the 2010's average gain of 10k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +3 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #260 on: February 23, 2019, 03:43:54 PM »

NSIDC:
Feb 21: 14,727,000 km2
Increase of 46,000 km2
12th place

Will NSIDC finally reach 15,000,000 this year? Last time was March 20, 2014.

Feb 22: 14,698,000 km2, drop of 29k.

It could be a close-run thing.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #261 on: February 24, 2019, 04:53:34 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 23rd, 2019:
     14,155,918 km2, a drop of -38,642 km2.
     2019 is now the 10th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #262 on: February 24, 2019, 07:01:47 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,155,918 km2(February 23, 2019)

- Extent LOSS 39k, 64k less than the average GAIN of 25k on this day.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 116 k (1.2%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 96.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 16 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.45 million km2 (570k >2017's record low maximum).

It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +3 and +4 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

I am wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #263 on: February 24, 2019, 02:30:37 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,931,107 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,931,107    km2      
 222,224    km2   >   2010's average.
 712,668    k   >   2018
-297,344    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    25    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    1    k   gain
Central Seas__   -3    k   loss
Other Seas___    28    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    22    k   gain
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Area GAIN 25 k, 15 k more than the 2010's average gain of 10k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +3 and +4 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #264 on: February 25, 2019, 05:46:01 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 24th, 2019:
     14,075,003 km2, a drop of -80,915 km2.   :o
     2019 is now the 9th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #265 on: February 25, 2019, 09:49:57 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,075,003 km2(February 24, 2019)

- Extent LOSS 81k, 112k less than the average GAIN of 31k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 3 k (0.0%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 96.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 15 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.34 million km2 (460k >2017's record low maximum).

It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +3 and +4.5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #266 on: February 25, 2019, 02:25:02 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 February 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,923,238 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,923,238    km2      
 202,167    km2   >   2010's average.
 690,253    k   >   2018
-305,004    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -8    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -21    k   loss
Central Seas__   -9    k   loss
Other Seas___    22    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -15    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Area LOSS 8 k, 20 k less than the 2010's average gain of 12k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +3 and +4.5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, a big change.. Bering and Chukchi seas losing area, as are Greenland, Barents, Kara & Laptev.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2019, 02:31:57 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #267 on: February 25, 2019, 03:04:42 PM »
The Bering and its southern neighbour, the Okhotsk, as last year, are showing a major contrast.

The Bering also shows how variable winter extent is year to year - the environment is marginal for ice formation.
Meanwhile the its southern neighbour, the Okhotsk is just cold. Siberian effect?

The St Lawrence is another sea where the environment is marginal for winter ice formation. The weather patterns in NE Canada over the last 2 years have encouraged ice formation.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #268 on: February 26, 2019, 04:48:43 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 25th, 2019:
     14,018,460 km2, a drop of -56,543 km2.   :o
     2019 is now the 8th lowest on record.


P.S. Max to date: 14,194,560 km2 on Feb 22th.
       Difference of 176,100 km2 versus Feb 25th.
 
« Last Edit: February 26, 2019, 05:10:51 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #269 on: February 26, 2019, 06:35:35 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,018,460 km2(February 25, 2019)

- Extent LOSS 57k, 69k less than the average GAIN of 12k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 66 k (0.7%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 96.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 14 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.27 million km2 (390k >2017's record low maximum).

It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +3.5 and +4.5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am still wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #270 on: February 26, 2019, 02:16:31 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 February 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,897,993 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,897,993    km2      
 165,943    km2   >   2010's average.
 658,366    k   >   2018
-333,112    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -25    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -31    k   loss
Central Seas__   -15    k   loss
Other Seas___    21    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -16    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -10    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    14    k   gain
St Lawrence___    8    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area LOSS 25 k, 36 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 11k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +3.5 and +4.5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, the big change accelerates.. Bering and Chukchi seas losing area, as are Greenland, Barents, Kara & Laptev.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent down to 14.587 million KM2, a drop of 95k on the day. That 15 million km2 looks less and less likely.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Downpuppy

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #271 on: February 26, 2019, 02:20:43 PM »
Down 176K in 3 days, with average gain left 180k & 5 of the last 10 years having less - Does that not sound like 50/50 that the maximum is already in?
On to melting season!  8)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #272 on: February 26, 2019, 02:23:06 PM »
Bering in freefall, while Okhotsk and St Lawrence do "reach for the sky".
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Klondike Kat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #273 on: February 26, 2019, 03:50:34 PM »
Down 176K in 3 days, with average gain left 180k & 5 of the last 10 years having less - Does that not sound like 50/50 that the maximum is already in?
On to melting season!  8)

I would say much less than that.  Almost every year has a sea ice peak in February or early March, only to be followed by a maximum weeks later.  This occurred several times in 2016, with the first peak occurring on Feb. 10, only to finally witness the maximum extent on March 24.  Weather, currents, and clouds combine to shift the ice significantly, resulting in fluctuations in the measurements.  Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #274 on: February 26, 2019, 07:36:51 PM »
Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

There are 3 years (2015, 2007 & 2016), not only one.  8)
I posted the numbers on the poll.
"Date of max" and "max", sorted by date.
On 2019, the max is to date (Feb 25th).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #275 on: February 26, 2019, 07:44:49 PM »
It's going to be challenged cause the weather over the Atlantic side next few days invites to think on extent increasing over Barents and Greenland seas. Otoh Bering wil be completely stagnant. It will be close in any case.

Klondike Kat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #276 on: February 26, 2019, 10:03:49 PM »
Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

There are 3 years (2015, 2007 & 2016), not only one.  8)
I posted the numbers on the poll.

According to NSIDC, the maximum extent was reached on Feb. 25 in 2015, Mar. 17 in 2016, and on Mar. 12 in 2006.  I stand by statement.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #277 on: February 27, 2019, 06:32:31 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 26th, 2019:
     13,995,362 km2, a drop of -23,098 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.

(Sorry I am late. Problems with internet...  :( )
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #278 on: February 27, 2019, 06:38:20 AM »
Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

There are 3 years (2015, 2007 & 2016), not only one.  8)
I posted the numbers on the poll.

According to NSIDC, the maximum extent was reached on Feb. 25 in 2015, Mar. 17 in 2016, and on Mar. 12 in 2006.  I stand by statement.

Ok. I thought that you were talking about ADS JAXA.  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #279 on: February 27, 2019, 08:45:42 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,995,362 km2(February 26, 2019)

- Extent LOSS 23k, 42k less than the average GAIN of 19k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 108 k (1.1%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 96.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 13 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.23 million km2 (350k >2017's record low maximum).

It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +3.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am still wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves. I also wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain. If not, it is likely the current  maximum of 14.195 million km2 will be the final outcome.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #280 on: February 27, 2019, 02:08:34 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 February 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,850,238  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,850,238    km2      
 101,201    km2   >   2010's average.
 599,559    k   >   2018
-390,155    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -48    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -31    k   loss
Central Seas__   -29    k   loss
Other Seas___    12    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -21    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    6    k   gain
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -13    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area LOSS 48 k, 65 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 17k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +3.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, the big change accelerates again.. Bering and Chukchi Beaufort and ESS losing area, as are Greenland, Barents, Kara & Laptev.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent down to 14.548 million KM2, a drop of 39k on the day. That 15 million km2 looks less and less likely.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #281 on: February 27, 2019, 02:36:19 PM »
A GFS temp anomaly image to show the contrast between the West and East Arctic
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #282 on: February 27, 2019, 02:40:08 PM »
The Chukchi and the Bering losing area,
The Okhotsk and the St Lawrence still gaining area at a rate of knots.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #283 on: February 28, 2019, 04:49:44 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 27th, 2019:
     13,958,917 km2, a drop of -36,445 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #284 on: February 28, 2019, 06:48:38 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,958,917 km2(February 27, 2019)

- Extent LOSS 36k, 37k less than the average GAIN of 1k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 145 k (1.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 96.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 12 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 6 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of 14.19 million km2 (310k >2017's record low maximum), i.e. is the current maximum of 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February. On the other hand, it is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +2.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am still wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves. I also wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain. If not, it is likely the current  maximum of 14.195 million km2 will be the final outcome.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

interstitial

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #285 on: February 28, 2019, 10:26:32 AM »
gerontocrat or anyone who knows.
how/where do you get regional extent/area data?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #286 on: February 28, 2019, 11:44:57 AM »
gerontocrat or anyone who knows.
how/where do you get regional extent/area data?
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ in Excel format
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #287 on: February 28, 2019, 03:16:32 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 February 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,787,999  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,787,999    km2      
 26,296    km2   >   2010's average.
 546,444    k   >   2018
-467,123    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -62    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -28    k   loss
Central Seas__   -36    k   loss
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -26    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -16    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Area LOSS 62 k, 75 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 13k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +2.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, the big change accelerates yet again.. Bering and Chukchi Beaufort and ESS losing area, as are Barents, Kara & Laptev, but not Greenland. In contrast, Okhotsk and St Lawrence gains stalled.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent up again to 14.584 million KM2, a gain of 36k on the day. That 15 million km2 looks less and less likely, while extent is likely to dither up and down for some time..
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #288 on: February 28, 2019, 03:38:16 PM »
Chukchi and Bering likely to lose ice for another 2 or 3 days. After that below freezing in the Chukchi and part of the Bering Sea. So my guess is that sea ice gain may return to the Chukchi, but the Bering sea ice will increase only marginally, if at all.

It is a thought that probably the Bering Sea maximum extent and area for 2019 is late January, some 2 months earlier than usual.
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #289 on: February 28, 2019, 10:34:21 PM »

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #291 on: March 01, 2019, 06:00:49 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 28th, 2019:
     13,914,006 km2, a drop of -44,911 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
     Six consecutive drops. Total drop from Feb 22nd max: -280,554 km2.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2019, 06:28:18 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jdallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #292 on: March 01, 2019, 08:33:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 28th, 2019:
     13,914,006 km2, a drop of -44,911 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
     Six consecutive drops. Total drop from Feb 22nd max: -280,554 km2.

There have been late season swings greater than 280K, but not by much, and not many.

If we have more declines, that may be it.
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Phil42

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #293 on: March 01, 2019, 08:53:26 AM »
Here are the highest extent losses in this particular time period from Feb 22nd - Feb 28th.

For reference, the highest gain in the same time period was +371'783km2 in 2005.

Phil42

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #294 on: March 01, 2019, 09:04:02 AM »
Here are the tables for the extent average in February 2019. Average extent was at 13'807'922 km2, which is:

- 7th lowest in recorded history
- 27'009 km2 above the 2010 average (including 2019)
- 405'331 km2 above the record year 2018

The second image shows the rank of average extent for each month since 2011, whereas 1 means lowest.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #295 on: March 01, 2019, 09:51:34 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,914,006 km2(February 28, 2019)

- Extent LOSS 45k, 75k less than the average GAIN of 30k on this day.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 220 k (2.3%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 97.1 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 11 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 7 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of less than 14.19 million km2 (310k >2017's record low maximum), i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is probably the 2019 maximum. On the other hand, it is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

So, who will be the first to mither Neven about calling the freezing season over and open the 2019 melting thread?

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +4.5 and +5 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then down to +1 after the next 5 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am still wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves. I also wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain. If not, it is likely the current  maximum of 14.195 million km2 will be the final outcome.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #296 on: March 01, 2019, 02:00:19 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 28 February 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,730,648  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,730,648    km2      
-37,723    km2   <   2010's average.
 504,628    k   >   2018
-546,830    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -57    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -30    k   loss
Central Seas__   -26    k   loss
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -21    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Area LOSS 57 k, whoops 50  64 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 7k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +4.5 and +5 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then down to +1 after the next 5 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.. At the end of the forecast period, the Atlantic side looking very cold.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent down again to 14.560 million KM2, a loss of 24k on the day. That 15 million km2 looks less and less likely, while extent is likely to dither up and down for some time..
« Last Edit: March 01, 2019, 05:46:16 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #297 on: March 01, 2019, 02:16:09 PM »
Chukchi and Bering likely to lose ice for another 2 or 3 days. After that temperature anomalies less extreme in the Chukchi . So my guess is that sea ice extent may stabilise in the Chukchi. But the Bering sea ice could continue to lose ice, but at a lower rate, simply because area is already at around 125,000 km2, 25% of its 2010's average maximum. We could be looking at the Bering Strait being open in a few days.

It is a thought that almost certainly the Bering Sea maximum extent and area for 2019 is late January, some 2 months earlier than usual. This sea is now basically an open water sea that sometimes has some ice in it.

Meanwhile, perhaps the Okhotsk and St Lawrence ice areas  have (almost) peaked.
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #298 on: March 02, 2019, 12:16:44 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 28th, 2019:
     13,914,006 km2, a drop of -44,911 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
     Six consecutive drops. Total drop from Feb 22nd max: -280,554 km2.

There have been late season swings greater than 280K, but not by much, and not many.

If we have more declines, that may be it.

while all you're saying is correct, look at UH images and the state of the ice, area is giving in in almost any corner of the arctic (periphery) at the same time, not literally but the impression is that.

considering that and the fact that we shall reach significant insolation levels in many more southern parts of the now frozen arctic and considering the non-homogeneous ice cover with a relative lot of darker water in between, i can't imagine such a steep increase to happen.

on of the later years when it happened was 2012 but in 2012 the ice cover was much more homogeneous and the amount of heat "looming" all around the arctic was significantly lower.

and then, looking at all the temp anomalies all around the place, where should that necessary cold-spell come from within the remaining 5-10 days to achieve such a steep increase of extent ?

i'm open to stand corrected should any of the above be inaccurate or wrong, go ahead, i'm here to learn.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2019, 12:33:07 AM by magnamentis »

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #299 on: March 02, 2019, 05:03:49 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 1st, 2019:
     13,909,051 km2, a drop of only -4,955 km2.
     2019 is now 4th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.