2019 sea ice area and extent data

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 21^st, 2019:
     14,167,494 km², an increase of  82,039 km².
     2019 is now the 12^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,167,494 km2（February 21, 2019）

- Extent gain 82k, 70k more than the average gain of 12k on this day.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 167 k (1. 7%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 18 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.50 million km2 (620k >2017's record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +2.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

I am wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains is from freezing and how much from existing ice being spread out due to winds and waves.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 21 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,862,839 km2

Total Area           12,862,839    km2        173,412    km2   >   2010's average.  664,218    k   >   2018 -368,476    k   <   2000's average.           Total gain/loss    39    k   gain Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain Central Seas__    7    k   gain Other Seas___    17    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    2    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss Greenland____   -1    k   loss Barents ______    20    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    2    k   gain CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__    1    k   gain Central Arctic_    1    k   gain           Kara_________    4    k   gain Laptev_______   -3    k   loss Chukchi______    0    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    17    k   gain St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Area GAIN 39 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average gain of 15k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +2.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.

[Neven]

Travelling right now, couldn't release this earlier, sorry:

Feb 20:           14,085,455
Increase of            73,253
9th lowest on record
Might soon surpass 2012 to move into 10th place

[Feeltheburn]

Travelling right now, couldn't release this earlier, sorry:

Feb 20:           14,085,455
Increase of            73,253
9th lowest on record
Might soon surpass 2012 to move into 10th place

Haven't I proven myself for the past 2 years? Can I please come out of detention?

<You haven't posted all that much. Anyway, I'm back now; N.>

[Feeltheburn]

Jaxa:

Feb 22: 14,194,560 km2
Increase of 27,066
12th place

NSIDC:
Feb 21: 14,727,000 km2
Increase of 46,000 km2
12th place

Will NSIDC finally reach 15,000,000 this year? Last time was March 20, 2014.

[Feeltheburn]

The Perils of Projections.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.43 million km2 (550k >2017's record low maximum).

We are going to need some slowing if my vote of 14.125-14.375 is going to stay in the money!

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,194,560 km2（February 22, 2019）

- Extent gain 27k, 12k more than the average gain of 15k on this day.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 179 k (1. 8%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 17 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.51 million km2 (630k >2017's record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +3 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

I am wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains is from freezing and how much from existing ice being spread out due to winds and waves.

[Brigantine]

Previous maximums [JAXA extent, since 2005] in million square km: [re-ordered]

1. 2017: 13.88
2. 2018: 13.89
3. 2015: 13.94
4. 2016: 13.96
5.= 2006: 14.13
5.= 2011: 14.13
2019 to date: 14.17
7. 2007: 14.21
8. 2005: 14.4
9. 2014: 14.45
10. 2013: 14.52
11. 2009: 14.66
12. 2010: 14.69
13. 2012: 14.71
14. 2008: 14.77

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 22 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,906,290 km2

Total Area           12,906,290    km2        207,217    km2   >   2010's average.  697,779    k   >   2018 -328,868    k   <   2000's average.           Total gain/loss    43    k   gain Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain Central Seas__    11    k   gain Other Seas___    26    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    5    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss Greenland____   -5    k   loss Barents ______    10    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    4    k   gain CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__    1    k   gain Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss           Kara_________    4    k   gain Laptev_______   -2    k   loss Chukchi______    3    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    18    k   gain St Lawrence___    9    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Area GAIN 43 k, 33 k more than the 2010's average gain of 10k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +3 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC:
Feb 21: 14,727,000 km2
Increase of 46,000 km2
12th place

Will NSIDC finally reach 15,000,000 this year? Last time was March 20, 2014.

Feb 22: 14,698,000 km2, drop of 29k.

It could be a close-run thing.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 23^rd, 2019:
     14,155,918 km², a drop of -38,642 km².
     2019 is now the 10^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,155,918 km2（February 23, 2019）

- Extent LOSS 39k, 64k less than the average GAIN of 25k on this day.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 116 k (1.2%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 96.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 16 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.45 million km2 (570k >2017's record low maximum).

It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +3 and +4 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

I am wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 23 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,931,107 km2

Total Area           12,931,107    km2        222,224    km2   >   2010's average.  712,668    k   >   2018 -297,344    k   <   2000's average.           Total gain/loss    25    k   gain Peripheral Seas    1    k   gain Central Seas__   -3    k   loss Other Seas___    28    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -2    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain Greenland____   -1    k   loss Barents ______   -1    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    2    k   gain CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    1    k   gain Central Arctic_    1    k   gain           Kara_________   -5    k   loss Laptev_______   -2    k   loss Chukchi______    1    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    22    k   gain St Lawrence___    6    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Area GAIN 25 k, 15 k more than the 2010's average gain of 10k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +3 and +4 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 24^th, 2019:
     14,075,003 km², a drop of -80,915 km².   
     2019 is now the 9^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,075,003 km2（February 24, 2019）

- Extent LOSS 81k, 112k less than the average GAIN of 31k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 3 k (0.0%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 96.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 15 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.34 million km2 (460k >2017's record low maximum).

It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +3 and +4.5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 24 February 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,923,238 km2

Total Area           12,923,238    km2        202,167    km2   >   2010's average.  690,253    k   >   2018 -305,004    k   <   2000's average.           Total gain/loss   -8    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -21    k   loss Central Seas__   -9    k   loss Other Seas___    22    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -15    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain Greenland____   -2    k   loss Barents ______   -7    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    1    k   gain Central Arctic_    1    k   gain           Kara_________   -4    k   loss Laptev_______   -3    k   loss Chukchi______   -3    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    17    k   gain St Lawrence___    5    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Area LOSS 8 k, 20 k less than the 2010's average gain of 12k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +3 and +4.5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, a big change.. Bering and Chukchi seas losing area, as are Greenland, Barents, Kara & Laptev.

[gerontocrat]

The Bering and its southern neighbour, the Okhotsk, as last year, are showing a major contrast.

The Bering also shows how variable winter extent is year to year - the environment is marginal for ice formation.
Meanwhile the its southern neighbour, the Okhotsk is just cold. Siberian effect?

The St Lawrence is another sea where the environment is marginal for winter ice formation. The weather patterns in NE Canada over the last 2 years have encouraged ice formation.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 25^th, 2019:
     14,018,460 km², a drop of -56,543 km².   
     2019 is now the 8^th lowest on record.


P.S. Max to date: 14,194,560 km² on Feb 22th.
       Difference of 176,100 km² versus Feb 25th.
 

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,018,460 km2（February 25, 2019）

- Extent LOSS 57k, 69k less than the average GAIN of 12k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 66 k (0.7%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 96.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 14 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.27 million km2 (390k >2017's record low maximum).

It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +3.5 and +4.5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am still wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 25 February 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,897,993 km2

Total Area           12,897,993    km2        165,943    km2   >   2010's average.  658,366    k   >   2018 -333,112    k   <   2000's average.           Total gain/loss   -25    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -31    k   loss Central Seas__   -15    k   loss Other Seas___    21    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -16    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain Greenland____   -6    k   loss Barents ______   -10    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss CAA_________   -0    k   loss East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_    0    k   gain           Kara_________    1    k   gain Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Chukchi______   -10    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    14    k   gain St Lawrence___    8    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Area LOSS 25 k, 36 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 11k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +3.5 and +4.5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, the big change accelerates.. Bering and Chukchi seas losing area, as are Greenland, Barents, Kara & Laptev.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent down to 14.587 million KM2, a drop of 95k on the day. That 15 million km2 looks less and less likely.

[Downpuppy]

Down 176K in 3 days, with average gain left 180k & 5 of the last 10 years having less - Does that not sound like 50/50 that the maximum is already in?
On to melting season! 

[gerontocrat]

Bering in freefall, while Okhotsk and St Lawrence do "reach for the sky".

[Klondike Kat]

Down 176K in 3 days, with average gain left 180k & 5 of the last 10 years having less - Does that not sound like 50/50 that the maximum is already in?
On to melting season! 

I would say much less than that.  Almost every year has a sea ice peak in February or early March, only to be followed by a maximum weeks later.  This occurred several times in 2016, with the first peak occurring on Feb. 10, only to finally witness the maximum extent on March 24.  Weather, currents, and clouds combine to shift the ice significantly, resulting in fluctuations in the measurements.  Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

[Juan C. García]

Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

There are 3 years (2015, 2007 & 2016), not only one. 
I posted the numbers on the poll.

"Date of max" and "max", sorted by date.
On 2019, the max is to date (Feb 25^th).

[Sterks]

It's going to be challenged cause the weather over the Atlantic side next few days invites to think on extent increasing over Barents and Greenland seas. Otoh Bering wil be completely stagnant. It will be close in any case.

[Klondike Kat]

Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

There are 3 years (2015, 2007 & 2016), not only one. 
I posted the numbers on the poll.

According to NSIDC, the maximum extent was reached on Feb. 25 in 2015, Mar. 17 in 2016, and on Mar. 12 in 2006.  I stand by statement.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 26^th, 2019:
     13,995,362 km², a drop of -23,098 km².
     2019 is now the 7^th lowest on record.

(Sorry I am late. Problems with internet...  )

[Juan C. García]

Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

There are 3 years (2015, 2007 & 2016), not only one. 
I posted the numbers on the poll.

According to NSIDC, the maximum extent was reached on Feb. 25 in 2015, Mar. 17 in 2016, and on Mar. 12 in 2006.  I stand by statement.

Ok. I thought that you were talking about ADS JAXA. 

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,995,362 km2（February 26, 2019）

- Extent LOSS 23k, 42k less than the average GAIN of 19k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 108 k (1.1%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 96.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 13 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.23 million km2 (350k >2017's record low maximum).

It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +3.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am still wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves. I also wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain. If not, it is likely the current  maximum of 14.195 million km2 will be the final outcome.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 26 February 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,850,238  km2

Total Area           12,850,238    km2        101,201    km2   >   2010's average.  599,559    k   >   2018 -390,155    k   <   2000's average.           Total gain/loss   -48    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -31    k   loss Central Seas__   -29    k   loss Other Seas___    12    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -21    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    6    k   gain Greenland____   -3    k   loss Barents ______   -13    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__   -4    k   loss Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss           Kara_________   -8    k   loss Laptev_______   -0    k   loss Chukchi______   -10    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    8    k   gain St Lawrence___    5    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Area LOSS 48 k, 65 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 17k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +3.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, the big change accelerates again.. Bering and Chukchi Beaufort and ESS losing area, as are Greenland, Barents, Kara & Laptev.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent down to 14.548 million KM2, a drop of 39k on the day. That 15 million km2 looks less and less likely.

[gerontocrat]

A GFS temp anomaly image to show the contrast between the West and East Arctic

[gerontocrat]

The Chukchi and the Bering losing area,
The Okhotsk and the St Lawrence still gaining area at a rate of knots.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 27^th, 2019:
     13,958,917 km², a drop of -36,445 km².
     2019 is the 7^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,958,917 km2（February 27, 2019）

- Extent LOSS 36k, 37k less than the average GAIN of 1k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 145 k (1.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 96.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 12 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 6 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of 14.19 million km2 (310k >2017's record low maximum), i.e. is the current maximum of 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February. On the other hand, it is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +2.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am still wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves. I also wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain. If not, it is likely the current  maximum of 14.195 million km2 will be the final outcome.

[interstitial]

gerontocrat or anyone who knows.
how/where do you get regional extent/area data?

[gerontocrat]

gerontocrat or anyone who knows.
how/where do you get regional extent/area data?

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ in Excel format

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 27 February 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,787,999  km2

Total Area           12,787,999    km2        26,296    km2   >   2010's average.  546,444    k   >   2018 -467,123    k   <   2000's average.           Total gain/loss   -62    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -28    k   loss Central Seas__   -36    k   loss Other Seas___    2    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -26    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain Greenland____    1    k   gain Barents ______   -8    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss           Kara_________   -16    k   loss Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Chukchi______   -10    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain

Area LOSS 62 k, 75 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 13k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +2.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, the big change accelerates yet again.. Bering and Chukchi Beaufort and ESS losing area, as are Barents, Kara & Laptev, but not Greenland. In contrast, Okhotsk and St Lawrence gains stalled.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent up again to 14.584 million KM2, a gain of 36k on the day. That 15 million km2 looks less and less likely, while extent is likely to dither up and down for some time..

[gerontocrat]

Chukchi and Bering likely to lose ice for another 2 or 3 days. After that below freezing in the Chukchi and part of the Bering Sea. So my guess is that sea ice gain may return to the Chukchi, but the Bering sea ice will increase only marginally, if at all.

It is a thought that probably the Bering Sea maximum extent and area for 2019 is late January, some 2 months earlier than usual.

[interstitial]

gerontocrat or anyone who knows.
how/where do you get regional extent/area data?

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ in Excel format

Thanks

[oren]

gerontocrat or anyone who knows.
how/where do you get regional extent/area data?

There is also regional AMSR2 (UH 3.125 km) data available from Wipneus at ArctischePinguin.
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data/UH_AMSR2_3.125km_Area_Extent-v0.0.txt?attredirects=0&d=1

I think this is the "Home Brew" AMSR2 data, Arctic:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/uh_am2_arc.txt?attredirects=0&d=1

Antarctic:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/uh_am2_ant.txt?attredirects=0&d=1

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 28^th, 2019:
     13,914,006 km², a drop of -44,911 km².
     2019 is now 5^th lowest on record.
     Six consecutive drops. Total drop from Feb 22^nd max: -280,554 km².

[jdallen]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 28^th, 2019:
     13,914,006 km², a drop of -44,911 km².
     2019 is now 5^th lowest on record.
     Six consecutive drops. Total drop from Feb 22^nd max: -280,554 km².

There have been late season swings greater than 280K, but not by much, and not many.

If we have more declines, that may be it.

[Phil42]

Here are the highest extent losses in this particular time period from Feb 22^nd - Feb 28^th.

For reference, the highest gain in the same time period was +371'783km² in 2005.

[Phil42]

Here are the tables for the extent average in February 2019. Average extent was at 13'807'922 km², which is:

- 7^th lowest in recorded history
- 27'009 km² above the 2010 average (including 2019)
- 405'331 km² above the record year 2018

The second image shows the rank of average extent for each month since 2011, whereas 1 means lowest.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,914,006 km2（February 28, 2019）

- Extent LOSS 45k, 75k less than the average GAIN of 30k on this day.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 220 k (2.3%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 97.1 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 11 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 7 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of less than 14.19 million km2 (310k >2017's record low maximum), i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is probably the 2019 maximum. On the other hand, it is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

So, who will be the first to mither Neven about calling the freezing season over and open the 2019 melting thread?

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +4.5 and +5 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then down to +1 after the next 5 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am still wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves. I also wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain. If not, it is likely the current  maximum of 14.195 million km2 will be the final outcome.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 28 February 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,730,648  km2

Total Area           12,730,648    km2       -37,723    km2   <   2010's average.  504,628    k   >   2018 -546,830    k   <   2000's average.           Total gain/loss   -57    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -30    k   loss Central Seas__   -26    k   loss Other Seas___   -2    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -21    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss Greenland____   -2    k   loss Barents ______    1    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss           Kara_________   -8    k   loss Laptev_______    1    k   gain Chukchi______   -9    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain

Area LOSS 57 k, whoops 50  64 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 7k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +4.5 and +5 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then down to +1 after the next 5 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.. At the end of the forecast period, the Atlantic side looking very cold.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent down again to 14.560 million KM2, a loss of 24k on the day. That 15 million km2 looks less and less likely, while extent is likely to dither up and down for some time..

[gerontocrat]

Chukchi and Bering likely to lose ice for another 2 or 3 days. After that temperature anomalies less extreme in the Chukchi . So my guess is that sea ice extent may stabilise in the Chukchi. But the Bering sea ice could continue to lose ice, but at a lower rate, simply because area is already at around 125,000 km2, 25% of its 2010's average maximum. We could be looking at the Bering Strait being open in a few days.

It is a thought that almost certainly the Bering Sea maximum extent and area for 2019 is late January, some 2 months earlier than usual. This sea is now basically an open water sea that sometimes has some ice in it.

Meanwhile, perhaps the Okhotsk and St Lawrence ice areas  have (almost) peaked.

[magnamentis]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 28^th, 2019:
     13,914,006 km², a drop of -44,911 km².
     2019 is now 5^th lowest on record.
     Six consecutive drops. Total drop from Feb 22^nd max: -280,554 km².

There have been late season swings greater than 280K, but not by much, and not many.

If we have more declines, that may be it.

while all you're saying is correct, look at UH images and the state of the ice, area is giving in in almost any corner of the arctic (periphery) at the same time, not literally but the impression is that.

considering that and the fact that we shall reach significant insolation levels in many more southern parts of the now frozen arctic and considering the non-homogeneous ice cover with a relative lot of darker water in between, i can't imagine such a steep increase to happen.

on of the later years when it happened was 2012 but in 2012 the ice cover was much more homogeneous and the amount of heat "looming" all around the arctic was significantly lower.

and then, looking at all the temp anomalies all around the place, where should that necessary cold-spell come from within the remaining 5-10 days to achieve such a steep increase of extent ?

i'm open to stand corrected should any of the above be inaccurate or wrong, go ahead, i'm here to learn.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 1^st, 2019:
     13,909,051 km², a drop of only -4,955 km².
     2019 is now 4^th lowest on record.