Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2019 sea ice area and extent data  (Read 760016 times)

Thomas Barlow

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 103
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2550 on: September 22, 2019, 10:29:57 AM »
So is there a concensus here? since them melting thread is closed.
2nd lowest on record? Tied for 2nd lowest?

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7209
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 732
  • Likes Given: 477
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2551 on: September 22, 2019, 10:54:12 AM »
This comment was posted two days ago, only to be released by me today:

Hi.

Longtime lurker who has just registered to echo the other posts.

Thank-you so much gerontocrat, Juan and all the other myriad posters who post and analyse the data to help us mere mortals understand what is happening up north.

As a primary school teacher in the UK I try my best to educate the young minds and possible future leaders of our county. Your data and explanations help me provide the evidence of what our civilization is doing to the planet and help shape the thoughts of the next generation.

Just posting to give my thanks... now back to lurking and not cluttering up threads :)
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Steven

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 555
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 133
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2552 on: September 22, 2019, 09:10:54 PM »
NSIDC daily area is currently 3.38 million km2, which is 7th lowest for the date:



It's now safe to say that the 2019 minimum was 2.87 million km2 on 4 September 2019.  That is the third lowest minimum on record:

    year    minimum
1   2012   2.23 million km2
2   2016   2.46
3   2019  2.87
4   2011   2.92
5   2007   2.95
6   2017   3.00
7   2010   3.07
8   2008   3.08
9   2015   3.14
10 2018   3.24
« Last Edit: September 22, 2019, 09:19:11 PM by Steven »

Thomas Barlow

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 103
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2553 on: September 23, 2019, 12:03:49 AM »
Looks like 2nd lowest by extent, which is what I usually compare to.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1531
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 544
  • Likes Given: 516
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2554 on: September 23, 2019, 05:49:29 AM »
Juan, can't you use your smartphone to connect your computer to the Internet? Or are you doing that already?
I'm doing that already. It is just that I can't navigate as much as I want to, as long as I don't recover my home internet connection.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
September 22nd, 2019:
     4,113,040 km2, an increase of  21,449 km2.
     2019 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1531
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 544
  • Likes Given: 516
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2555 on: September 23, 2019, 06:06:47 AM »
A timely point for me to say thank you Geronto and to Juan and to all the data crunchers and plotters on this thread. Immense help in trying to make sense of a confusing end of season.

Hi.

Longtime lurker who has just registered to echo the other posts.

Thank-you so much gerontocrat, Juan and all the other myriad posters who post and analyse the data to help us mere mortals understand what is happening up north.

As a primary school teacher in the UK I try my best to educate the young minds and possible future leaders of our county. Your data and explanations help me provide the evidence of what our civilization is doing to the planet and help shape the thoughts of the next generation.

Just posting to give my thanks... now back to lurking and not cluttering up threads :)

You are welcome [everyone]. I am very happy to be of some help.  :)
Thanks to Neven and others!!! Another melting season has passed. I have also learned a lot on the ASIF.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Phil42

  • New ice
  • Posts: 58
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 74
  • Likes Given: 517
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2556 on: September 23, 2019, 08:35:24 AM »
I'd like to join in thanking gerontocrat, Juan, Alphabet Hotel, and all other contributors for their work. It is so much appreciated.

Also here is a very (un)interesting table which finally received a second row.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2557 on: September 23, 2019, 11:40:05 AM »
This comment was posted two days ago, only to be released by me today:

Hi.

Longtime lurker who has just registered to echo the other posts.

Thank-you so much gerontocrat, Juan and all the other myriad posters who post and analyse the data to help us mere mortals understand what is happening up north.

As a primary school teacher in the UK I try my best to educate the young minds and possible future leaders of our county. Your data and explanations help me provide the evidence of what our civilization is doing to the planet and help shape the thoughts of the next generation.

Just posting to give my thanks... now back to lurking and not cluttering up threads :)

A timely reminder that many come to the forum for information and then to spread the word about AGW and other abuses of the biosphere by mankind, and their consequences.

Indeed, if person finds the work I do of any value in that work, it is worth doing.

ParabolicD, your post is not clutter.

__________________________________________________________________
ps: I can think of many that merely display bad-tempered inflated egos that are just clutter.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2558 on: September 23, 2019, 12:46:23 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,113,040 km2(September 22, 2019)

Herewith the first posting of the freezing season.

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 21k, 12k less than the average of 33k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 149 k, 98 k (39.7%) less than the average gain to date of 247 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 676 k greater than 2012, 499 k less than 2016, and 32 k MORE than 2007,
- Extent gain to date 149 k, 98 k (39.7%) less than the average gain to date of 247 k.
- 2.5% of the season done, 171 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

A bit early to predict the 2020 max? But whatever.
Average extent gain from this date produces a maximum of 13.71 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.17 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

SSTs high might slow re-freeze?
____________________________________________________________
ps: Next post looks at 2007 a bit more.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2559 on: September 23, 2019, 12:57:15 PM »
Another look at 2007.

2007 daily extent minimum was 4th lowest at 4.07 million, compared with
3.18 million - 2012,
3.96 million - 2019,
4.02 million, - 2016.

Now consider the September monthly average
3.40 million - 2012,
4.16 million - 2019, (22 days actual + 8 days estimated)
4.40 million, - 2016,
4.18 million, - 2007.

The  September monthly average says 2007 was well below 2016, and might be below 2019, i.e. could be 2nd lowest.

Which do you think is the better measure, a single day or a whole month?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4534
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 912
  • Likes Given: 1306
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2560 on: September 23, 2019, 01:45:04 PM »
Quote
Which do you think is the better measure, a single day or a whole month?
Both. And seasonal average. And area. And volume. And accumulated AWP.

blumenkraft

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1573
  • Fans of Hans Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 697
  • Likes Given: 963
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2561 on: September 23, 2019, 02:04:51 PM »
I take it we are brainstorming.

A percentage of the min from the max per year would be nice. ;)
Refugees welcome

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 306
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2562 on: September 23, 2019, 02:22:08 PM »
To me, there is no such thing as random noise. Everything can be perfectly predicted given enough data and processing power. The reality is that enough data and processing power are very often not available.

So maybe, just maybe, by keeping the "noise" of the daily data, and being aware of other variables at different time scales insight can be gained that turns noise into useful knowledge.

I like using the most granular possible element for my volume charts for this reason. The data is noisier, but the noise may reveal patterns that averaged data may hide.

However, averaged data has many important uses. The other day I was comparing ENSO and PIOMAS. Averaged data over 2 months was very useful. Daily data would have been unnecessarily noisy.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1720
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 393
  • Likes Given: 67
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2563 on: September 23, 2019, 03:18:21 PM »
Everything can be perfectly predicted given enough data and processing power.

Nope. Given quantum uncertainty and the butterfly effect, predictions are doomed to fail sooner or later.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2564 on: September 23, 2019, 03:25:26 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)   3,296,727  km2

Area has increased by almost 200k in just 3 days, and Total Area is now only 24k less than the 2010's average.
In contrast extent gain in the last 3 days was just 40k, and Total Extent is  432k less than the 2010's average.

                        
Total Area         
 3,296,727    km2      
-24,200    km2   <   2010's average.
-108,096    km2   <   2018
-888,521    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    55    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    10    k   gain
Central Seas__    45    k   gain
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    -    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    10    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    10    k   gain
CAA_________    7    k   gain
East Siberian__    8    k   gain
Central Arctic_    22    k   gain
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

________________________________________________________________________
Outlook

Will high SSTs eventually slow down area gain?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

charles_oil

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 304
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 36
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2565 on: September 23, 2019, 03:52:15 PM »

I think the daily updates of several slightly different data sets are great - and my thanks as well like Phil42 to everyone that does them as it takes real dedication!  :) 


I think the smoother 5 day trailing NSIDC is handy as well then we have the monthly data & occasional trailing year data.  That's probably enough different timescales (certainly for me to get my head around).  I am sometimes worried that comparing todays data to historical "on this day" may be risky as there can be sudden jumps >100 occasionally which may skew the historical daily figs.


Sorry Tom - I dont think we should get into the perfection of predictions argument in this  data thread  though!  :(

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 306
  • Likes Given: 184
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tunnelforce9

  • New ice
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 50
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2567 on: September 23, 2019, 04:49:31 PM »
Quote
Everything can be perfectly predicted given enough data and processing power.

Nope. Given quantum uncertainty and the butterfly effect, predictions are doomed to fail sooner or later.

I think you are both right. The problem is that you would need an enormous supercomputer for the calculation/simulation, so large in fact that the energy consumption would probably be greater then  all energy in our universe.

mitch

  • New ice
  • Posts: 87
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2568 on: September 23, 2019, 07:24:23 PM »
No matter how good the processing power, the inherent instability in weather systems means that you are limited by how many observations you can make. If I remember correctly, even if you observe 99% of the surface today, by 10 days out you would only have reliable information about 50% of the surface.  You are trying to predict where the next bubble will form in a boiling pot of water a minute or so after the boiling started.  Here's a paper I located:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3270390/

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2569 on: September 23, 2019, 08:18:27 PM »
So 2019 was 2nd lowest in the satellite record.

But look at the Central Arctic Sea (Total size 3.22 million km2).

Area - 4th lowest at end August and now 13th lowest, and area currently more than 600,000 km2 greater than 2012,

Extent - 10th lowest at end August and now 12th lowest, and extent currently more than 300,000 km2 greater than 2012.


That means the other seas really did lose a lot of ice.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1531
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 544
  • Likes Given: 516
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2570 on: September 24, 2019, 05:54:50 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
September 23rd, 2019:
     4,159,720 km2, an increase of 46,680 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Thomas Barlow

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 103
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2571 on: September 24, 2019, 11:01:56 AM »
So 2019 was 2nd lowest in the satellite record.

But look at the Central Arctic Sea (Total size 3.22 million km2).
snip
That means the other seas really did lose a lot of ice.
Interesting, at least the main body of the ice-pack is somewhat preserved.
But the peripheral seas and fjords are low compared to other years? That likely means the surrounding seas are warmer than usual, giving a slower start to the freezing season, impacting the robustness of the Arctic Basin icepack in general.
It feels like the wolves are circling the icepack and a final stand for a long seige is ensuing.

stjuuv

  • New ice
  • Posts: 26
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 21
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2572 on: September 24, 2019, 11:20:56 AM »
Hopefully not too offtopic:

As I understand it, compared to recent years, the CAB area/extent is quite high and area/extent everywhere else is much lower than usual. However, compared to the vastly lower area/extent figures of 2012, even the "everywhere else" category should be about the same?

So how does this compare to 2012 in the SST and overall ice dynamics? Do I understand it correctly that the GAC of 2012 brought up warmer water from deeper layers to melt a lot of the ice, but this in turn meant an accelerated loss of energy in the system as well, leading to a faster/relatively normal refreeze - but since this year the melting dynamics were different, we ended up with more ice area/extent than 2012, but a lot more sea surface with higher temperatures, so that we could expect a slower refreeze and perhaps end up with a record low volume/area/extent/ice quality at the beginning of the next melting season?

echoughton

  • New ice
  • Posts: 96
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2573 on: September 24, 2019, 12:07:38 PM »
Can we therefore say with 100% certainty that all the ice in the CAB is now "Multi-Year Ice"? I see all the time from members that all or most of the MYI is gone. Well, about 4 million square km survived the summer...therefore...

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2574 on: September 24, 2019, 12:09:37 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,159,720 km2(September 23, 2019)

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 47k, 12k more than the average of 35k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 195 k, 86 k (30.6%) less than the average gain to date of 282 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 685 k greater than 2012, 547 k less than 2016, and 91 k MORE than 2007,
- 2.9% of the season done, 170 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

A bit early to predict the 2020 max? But whatever.
Average extent gain from this date produces a maximum of 13.72 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.16 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

SSTs high might slow re-freeze?
____________________________________________________________

EDIT: - Errors on projected minima on Graph Arc1 now corrected.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2019, 12:18:27 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4534
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 912
  • Likes Given: 1306
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2575 on: September 24, 2019, 12:12:22 PM »
Can we therefore say with 100% certainty that all the ice in the CAB is now "Multi-Year Ice"? I see all the time from members that all or most of the MYI is gone. Well, about 4 million square km survived the summer...therefore...
Obvious, all area at the end of the season becomes MYI, same as other years. And still the MYI keeps dwindling in amount and especially in age.
This should be discussed in the freezing season thread though.

Phil.

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 341
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 36
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2576 on: September 24, 2019, 01:58:43 PM »
Can we therefore say with 100% certainty that all the ice in the CAB is now "Multi-Year Ice"? I see all the time from members that all or most of the MYI is gone. Well, about 4 million square km survived the summer...therefore...
Obvious, all area at the end of the season becomes MYI, same as other years. And still the MYI keeps dwindling in amount and especially in age.
This should be discussed in the freezing season thread though.

It's called second year ice, MYI has lasted two winters.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2577 on: September 24, 2019, 05:45:21 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)   3,355,783   km2

Area has increased by 250 k in just 4days, and Total Area is now 8 k MORE than the 2010's average.
                        
Total Area         
 3,355,783    km2      
 8,304    km2   >   2010's average.
-53,396    km2   <   2018
-857,087    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    59    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain
Central Seas__    51    k   gain
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    -    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    9    k   gain
CAA_________    12    k   gain
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    23    k   gain
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

________________________________________________________________________
Outlook

Will high SSTs eventually slow down area gain? Hot seas haven't yet
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2578 on: September 24, 2019, 05:58:51 PM »
When looking at the AREA graphs for the principal seas that surround the Central Arctic sea, the Laptev, ESS and Beaufort all came in well under the 2010's average.

Quite a substantial difference from the Central Arctic, the area of which is now greater than the 2010's average AND the 2000's average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

RoxTheGeologist

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 471
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 132
  • Likes Given: 100
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2579 on: September 24, 2019, 06:32:50 PM »
When looking at the AREA graphs for the principal seas that surround the Central Arctic sea, the Laptev, ESS and Beaufort all came in well under the 2010's average.

Quite a substantial difference from the Central Arctic, the area of which is now greater than the 2010's average AND the 2000's average.

I think much of that is down to the Atlantic side of the Arctic. In the last few years before 2019 that ice age has been pushed back well over the edge of the continental slope. This year the ice remained in contact with Svalbard for the whole season. Perhaps it's correlated with the Nares strait not closing? If more Atlantic water is being diverted around Greenland that would explain less melting around Svalbard.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1531
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 544
  • Likes Given: 516
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2580 on: September 25, 2019, 05:44:13 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
September 24rd, 2019:
     4,234,869 km2, an increase of 75,149 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2581 on: September 25, 2019, 08:51:51 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,234,869 km2(September 24, 2019)

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 75k, 29k more than the average of 46k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 271 k, 57 k (17.3%) less than the average gain to date of 328 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 714 k greater than 2012, 566 k less than 2016, and 167 k MORE than 2007,
- 3.3% of the season done, 169 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average extent gain from this date produces a maximum of 13.75 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.13 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

SSTs high might slow re-freeze? That was the theory but.....
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2582 on: September 25, 2019, 03:23:20 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)   3,410,229   km2

Area has increased by over 300 k in just 5 days, and Total Area is now 25 k MORE than the 2010's average.
                        
Total Area         
 3,410,229    km2      
 24,616    km2   >   2010's average.
-16,297    km2   <   2018
-831,576    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    54    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    0    k   gain
Central Seas__    56    k   gain
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    -    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    10    k   gain
CAA_________    13    k   gain
East Siberian__    8    k   gain
Central Arctic_    24    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

________________________________________________________________________
Outlook

High SSTs are not slowing down area gain
« Last Edit: September 25, 2019, 03:29:33 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2583 on: September 25, 2019, 05:25:03 PM »
The attached graph is simply NSIDC Extent divided by Area (both 5-day trailing average). The more the ice is spread out,  the higher the percentage.

As you can see, the ice is remarkably compact, the somewhat unusual change happening in the last month.

______________________________________
ps: Most people show the compaction graph - i.e. area divided by extent, but I prefer dispersion, more drama.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

sailor

  • New ice
  • Posts: 98
  • I avoid polynya
    • View Profile
    • www.atomarxviento.com
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2584 on: September 26, 2019, 12:33:07 AM »
The attached graph is simply NSIDC Extent divided by Area (both 5-day trailing average). The more the ice is spread out,  the higher the percentage.

As you can see, the ice is remarkably compact, the somewhat unusual change happening in the last month.

______________________________________
ps: Most people show the compaction graph - i.e. area divided by extent, but I prefer dispersion, more drama.
It was the so persistent high pressure system that caused the unusually simultaneous area growth while extent kept dropping due to compacting winds, as you pointed out daily last days of melting season.
A nice, compact, absolutely re-frozen ice pack. What next? ??
On the thin ice of modern life

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1531
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 544
  • Likes Given: 516
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2585 on: September 26, 2019, 05:39:39 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
September 25th, 2019:
     4,260,044 km2, an increase of 25,175 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2586 on: September 26, 2019, 10:20:24 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,260,044 km2(September 25, 2019)

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 25k, 23k less than the average of 48k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 296 k, 79 k (21.1%) less than the average gain to date of 375 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 720 k more than 2012, 580 k less than 2016, and 183 k MORE than 2007,
- 3.8% of the season done, 168 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average extent gain from this date produces a maximum of 13.73 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.15 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

SSTs high might slow re-freeze? Also GFS 5 day forecast has strong +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic apart from the CAA. So maybe.....?
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2587 on: September 26, 2019, 04:04:49 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)   3,442,532   km2

After area increasing by over 300 k in just 5 days, daily gain on this day below average, and Total Area is now down to 12 k above the 2010's average.
                        
Total Area         
 3,442,532    km2      
 12,057    km2   >   2010's average.
 1,422    km2   >   2018
-826,897    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    32    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    3    k   gain
Central Seas__    30    k   gain
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    13    k   gain
CAA_________    14    k   gain
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Daily gain 32k, 13k less than the 2010's average of 45 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook

On this day also JAXA extent gain was low. High SSTs were not slowing down area gain, but looks like high +ve temp anomalies in most of the Arctic as well. So maybe a slow down - Central Arctic Sea LOST 4k on this day.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1531
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 544
  • Likes Given: 516
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2588 on: September 27, 2019, 05:42:41 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
September 26th, 2019:
     4,268,957 km2, an increase of 8,913 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2589 on: September 27, 2019, 12:53:30 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,268,957 km2(September 26, 2019

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 9k, 34k less than the average of 43k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 305 k, 113 k (27.2%) less than the average gain to date of 418 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 700 k more than 2012, 651 k less than 2016, and 148 k MORE than 2007,
- 4.3% of the season done, 167 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average extent gain from this date produces a maximum of 13.69 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.19 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Same comment as yesterday applies - SSTs high might slow re-freeze? Also GFS 5 day forecast has strong +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic apart from the CAA. So maybe.....?
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2590 on: September 27, 2019, 04:02:06 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  3,459,756    km2

After area increasing by over 300 k in just 5 days, for the second day daily gain on this day well below average, and Total Area is now back down to 23 k BELOW the 2010's average.
                        
Total Area         
 3,459,756    km2      
-22,711    km2   <   2010's average.
 1,581    km2   >   2018
-839,095    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    17    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -1    k   loss
Central Seas__    18    k   gain
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    -    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    13    k   gain
CAA_________    10    k   gain
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -11    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Daily gain 17k, 35k less than the 2010's average of 52 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook

On this day also JAXA extent gain was low. High SSTs continue, and high +ve temp anomalies forecast for most of the Arctic as well. So maybe a slow down in Area gain will persist for longer - Central Arctic Sea LOST 11k area on this day.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 803
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 271
  • Likes Given: 141
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2591 on: September 27, 2019, 05:26:44 PM »
Look at Laptev Sea extent. It seems like equinox hasn't happened there yet  ;)
This loss is probably due to further movement of the sparse ice floes in the very N of Laptev Sea heading towards the CAB ?!?
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1531
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 544
  • Likes Given: 516
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2592 on: September 28, 2019, 06:00:10 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
September 27th, 2019:
     4,310,768 km2, an increase of 41,811 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2593 on: September 28, 2019, 12:55:05 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,310,768 km2(September 27, 2019)

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 42k, 15k less than the average of 57k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 347 k, 129 k (27.1%) less than the average gain to date of 475 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 688 k more than 2012, 701 k less than 2016, and 121 k MORE than 2007,
- 4.8% of the season done, 166 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average extent gain from this date produces a maximum of 13.68 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.20 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Same comment as yesterday applies - high SSTs and GFS 5 day forecast has strong +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic apart from the CAA - might continue to slow re-freeze for a few more days?
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2594 on: September 28, 2019, 03:26:26 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)   3,484,775 km2

For the third day daily gain on this day well below average, and Total Area is now back down to 56 k BELOW the 2010's average.
                        
Total Area         
 3,484,775    km2      
-56,071    km2   <   2010's average.
 10,018    km2   >   2018
-848,291    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    25    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas__    20    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    12    k   gain
CAA_________    9    k   gain
East Siberian__    8    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 25k, 33k less than the 2010's average of 58 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook

No change to this comment...On this day also JAXA extent gain was low. High SSTs continue, and high +ve temp anomalies forecast for most of the Arctic as well. So maybe a slow down in Area gain will persist for longer.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1531
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 544
  • Likes Given: 516
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2595 on: September 28, 2019, 10:54:52 PM »
Today I am going to a wedding, so I will not post as usual.
If someone else can do it?

Thanks.  :)

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

blumenkraft

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1573
  • Fans of Hans Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 697
  • Likes Given: 963
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2596 on: September 29, 2019, 06:38:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 28th, 2019: 4,344,557 km2, an increase of 33,789 km2.

(have fun at the wedding, Juan :) )
« Last Edit: September 29, 2019, 08:30:48 AM by blumenkraft »
Refugees welcome

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 803
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 271
  • Likes Given: 141
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2597 on: September 29, 2019, 08:15:46 AM »
Ranking of JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent on Sep 28
#1  2012    3.68 M km²
#2  2007    4.27 M km²
#3  2019   4.34 M km²
#4  2018    4.71 M km²
#5  2011    4.79 M km²
(-)  Average 2010s 4.83 M km²
#6  2008 & 2015 4.88 M km²
#8  2017    5.00 M km²
#9  2016    5.03 M km²
« Last Edit: September 29, 2019, 09:34:43 AM by Stephan »
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2598 on: September 29, 2019, 12:29:44 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,344,557 km2(September 28, 2019)

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 34k, 19k less than the average of 53k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 380 k, 148 k (28.0%) less than the average gain to date of 528 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 663 k more than 2012, 686 k less than 2016, and 73 k MORE than 2007,
- 5.4% of the season done, 165 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average extent gain from this date produces a maximum of 13.66 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.22 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Same comment for the last few days applies - high SSTs and GFS 5 day forecast has strong +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic - might continue to slow re-freeze for a few more days?
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2599 on: September 29, 2019, 03:26:40 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 28 September 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,501,394 km2

For the third day daily gain on this day well below average, and Total Area is now back down to 95 k BELOW the 2010's average.
                        
Total Area         
 3,501,394    km2      
-94,993    km2   <   2010's average.
 16,081    km2   >   2018
-874,609    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    17    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas__    10    k   gain
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    -    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    13    k   gain
CAA_________    6    k   gain
East Siberian__    9    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -16    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Daily gain 17k, 39k less than the 2010's average of 56 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook

Again no real change to this comment...On this day also JAXA extent gain was low. High SSTs continue, and high +ve temp anomalies forecast for most of the Arctic as well. So maybe a slow down in Area gain will persist for longer.

The freezing season thread has got some really good posts and images about current  /movements / freezing / melting.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)