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Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2600 on: September 29, 2019, 04:07:48 PM »
Laptev Sea with another 10% ice loss...
{wonder whether it will manage to empty completely this melting season (which has already officially ended)}
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2601 on: September 29, 2019, 05:00:14 PM »
Looking at UH AMSR2 area data, the Laptev is at 7000 km2 and losing 30% per day in the last few days. Not sure if it will go to full zero though.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2602 on: September 29, 2019, 09:59:26 PM »
To produce the UH AMSR2 Graphs Wipneus uses a different mask file from NSIDC. In his analysis, the CAB area is larger by about 1.2 million km2, the surrounding seas a bit smaller and not reaching quite as far north as the NSIDC surrounding seas i.e. the Beaufort, Chukchi, ES, Laptev, Kara & CAA.
______________________________________________
From Oren's post https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2223.msg165164.html#msg165164

Wipneus AMSR2 (Cryosphere Today map)  NSIDC Regions (MASIE map)
CAB         4.48     3.22
Beaufort   0.53     0.94
Chukchi    0.61     0.83
ESS         0.95     1.3
Laptev     0.73     0.87
Kara        0.9       0.92
CAA        0.78      0.76
_______________________________________
So the NSIDC Laptev Area & Extent graphs attached show a bit more ice remaining. However, the AMSR2 data starts in 2012 when the Japanese (?) put up the new satellite with the bigger dish that gives so much better resolution. So to see trends back to the 1980's, NSIDC data is the only way. (Unless JAXA provides readily accessible data by regional seas).

The graphs show the extent to which summer sea ice has dramatically reduced during the last 40 years.
______________________________________________
ps....
Having more than one set of boundaries is a pain - and happens elsewhere. There are 2 accepted definitions of the Greenland and Antarctic drainage basins - nearly but not quite the same. And I have 2 sets of data that I cannot combine because of it.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2603 on: September 30, 2019, 05:48:01 AM »
September 28th, 2019: 4,344,557 km2, an increase of 33,789 km2.

(have fun at the wedding, Juan :) )
Thanks Blumenkraft and Stephan for your posts.  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
September 29th, 2019:
     4,371,624 km2, an increase of 27,067 km2.
     2019 is still?  ;) 3rd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2604 on: September 30, 2019, 11:47:03 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,371,624 km2(September 29, 2019)

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 27k, 15k less than the average of 42k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 407 k, 162 k (28.5%) less than the average gain to date of 570 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 632 k more than 2012, 642 k less than 2016, and 51 k MORE than 2007,
- 5.8% of the season done, 164 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average extent gain from this date produces a maximum of 13.64 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.24 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Same comment for the last few days applies - high SSTs and GFS 5 day forecast has strong +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic - might continue to slow re-freeze for a few more days?
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2605 on: September 30, 2019, 03:18:53 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 September 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,511,419 km2

For the fourth day daily gain on this day well below average, and Total Area is now 138 k BELOW the 2010's average.
                        
Total Area         
 3,511,419    km2      
-138,303    km2   <   2010's average.
 14,623    km2   >   2018
-915,086    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    10    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain
Central Seas__   -4    k   loss
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
Greenland____    11    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    15    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -26    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 10k, 43k less than the 2010's average of 53 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook

Again no real change to this comment...On this day also JAXA extent gain was low. High SSTs continue, and high +ve temp anomalies forecast for most of the Arctic as well. So maybe a slow down in Area gain will persist for longer.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2606 on: September 30, 2019, 03:34:43 PM »
NSIDC Area Data

At this time of year, and this year with
-high SSTs and
-above average Arctic Temperatures,
one wonders how much area gain (and loss) is to do with freezing and melting
and how much is to do with sea ice drift especially given a thin and very messy ice pack offering little resistance to winds and currents.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2607 on: October 01, 2019, 05:42:54 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
September 30th, 2019:
     4,408,173 km2, an increase of 36,549 km2.
     Today 2019 has become the 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Phil42

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2608 on: October 01, 2019, 09:30:29 AM »
Some data about September 2019:

The first image shows the lowest average September sea ice extents. September 2019 ranked 2nd behind only 2012 with an average extent of 4'154'852 km2.

The second image shows the ranks of the average sea ice extent of each month 2007-2019 (lowest = rank 1).

The third image shows the extent change from beginning of September to the end of September. 2019 had the 11th lowest change with a small gain of only 159'699 km2.

binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2609 on: October 01, 2019, 09:47:34 AM »
A very silly ranking index graph made from averaging the indexes in Phil42's excellent table above, shows that 2019 (to date) is indeed in second place ... but after 2016!

Funnily enough, 2012 is in 7th place, and 2007 in 11th place !!!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2610 on: October 01, 2019, 11:20:24 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,408,173 km2(September 30, 2019)

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 37k, 14k less than the average of 51k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 444 k, 176 k (28.4%) less than the average gain to date of 620 k.
- Extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 632 k more than 2012, 607 k less than 2016, and 19 k LESS than 2007,
- 6.3% of the season done, 163 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.63 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.25 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Same comment for the last few days applies - high SSTs and GFS 5 day forecast has strong +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic - might continue to slow re-freeze for a few more days?
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2611 on: October 01, 2019, 11:46:54 AM »
A very silly ranking index graph made from averaging the indexes in Phil42's excellent table above, shows that 2019 (to date) is indeed in second place ... but after 2016!

Funnily enough, 2012 is in 7th place, and 2007 in 11th place !!!

A very silly ranking index graph.... NOT AT ALL.

The first graph attached shows the 365 day trailing average of JAXA sea ice extent. In 2016 and up to March 2017 (the record low maximum year) the 2016 trailing average became a record low - well below the 2012-13 record low average.

2012 extent roared down and then roared up - a spectacular but very temporary event (and followed by record extent gains to maximum). 2016 was a much longer-term event . You can see this very well in the 2nd graph - the plume of projections of October 2019 extent from previous years' extent gains. The lowest October extent gains by far were in 2016, the highest in 2012.

To me, yet more evidence, if it were needed, that using 2012 as a benchmark is misleading (even if inevitable).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2612 on: October 01, 2019, 03:40:52 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 September 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,543,017 km2

Total Area is now 163 k BELOW the 2010's average, and just below 2016 by 6k.
                        
Total Area         
 3,543,017    km2      
-163,123    km2   <   2010's average.
 11,893    km2   >   2018
-946,162    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    32    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    9    k   gain
Central Seas__    22    k   gain
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    8    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    16    k   gain
CAA_________    5    k   gain
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 32k, 24 k less than the 2010's average of 56 k.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gandul

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2613 on: October 01, 2019, 06:17:51 PM »
 NSIDC’s September average extent for 2019 was 4.32 million km^2, third in record behind 2007 and 2012.
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Monthly_Data_by_Year_G02135_v3.0.xlsx
No me lo trago

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2614 on: October 02, 2019, 05:41:11 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 1st, 2019:
     4,460,032 km2, an increase of 51,859 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2615 on: October 02, 2019, 09:30:43 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,460,032 km2(October 1, 2019)

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 52k, 3k more than the average of 49k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 496 k, 173 k (25.9%) less than the average gain to date of 669 k.
- Extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 611 k more than 2012, 48 k less than 2007, and 274k less than 2018
- 6.8% of the season done, 162 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.63 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.25 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

SSTs definitely going down. Can a slow down in freeze be maintained?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2616 on: October 02, 2019, 03:30:27 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 September 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,597,220 km2

1 October Data Health Warning - Mask Adjustment by NSIDC - upwards. Will also affect next 3-4 days.
                        
Total Area         
 3,597,220    km2      
-169,378    km2   <   2010's average.
 21,143    km2   >   2018
-965,580    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    54    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    13    k   gain
Central Seas__    38    k   gain
Other Seas___    3    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    11    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    16    k   gain
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 54k, 6 k less than the 2010's average of 60 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
SSTs high but anomaly diminishing, as they have to as winter arrives.

So, to conclude - je ne sais pas.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2617 on: October 03, 2019, 05:59:04 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 2nd, 2019:
     4,491,806 km2, an increase of 31,774 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2618 on: October 03, 2019, 01:28:16 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,460,032 km2(October 1, 2019)

No drama - really boring

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 32k, 4k less than the average gain of 36k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 528 k, 177 k (25.2%) less than the average gain to date of 705 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 616 k more than 2012, 49 k less than 2007, and 243k less than 2018***
- 7.2% of the season done, 161 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.63 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.25 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

SSTs definitely going down but still mostly +ve anomalies . Arctic Ocean Temps mostly +ve anomalies. Can a slow down in freeze be maintained?
_________________________________________________
*** The difference in 2019 extent to 2018 extent is reducing. This means progress towards a new 365 day trailing average record low is slowing, putting the current projection into mid 2020 from early 2020. This could easily change either way in the course of the next few days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2619 on: October 03, 2019, 03:36:02 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,644,889  km2

                        
Total Area         
 3,644,889    km2      
-172,394    km2   <   2010's average.
 23,042    km2   >   2018
-994,697    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    48    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    11    k   gain
Central Seas__    34    k   gain
Other Seas___    3    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    18    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss


Daily gain 48k, 3 k less than the 2010's average of 51 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
?
So, to conclude - je ne sais pas.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2620 on: October 03, 2019, 05:42:54 PM »
Quote
*** The difference in 2019 extent to 2018 extent is reducing. This means progress towards a new 365 day trailing average record low is slowing, putting the current projection into mid 2020 from early 2020. This could easily change either way in the course of the next few days.
[emphasis added]
And you dare to also write "really boring". ;D
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2621 on: October 04, 2019, 05:51:55 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,460,032 km2(October 1, 2019)

No drama - really boring

Not really. I am interested to see what will happened after October 15th.
Will 2019 become the lowest on record?
It is also interesting that 2016 & 2018 will compete to be the lowest with 2007 and 2012. The true is that the last 3 years (2016-2018) had been too low on winter. Will 2019 end that way?

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 3rd, 2019:
     4,515,575 km2, an increase of "only" 23,769 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2622 on: October 04, 2019, 01:07:57 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,515,575 km2(October 3, 2019)

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 24k, 18k less than the average of 42k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 551 k, 196 k (26.2%) less than the average gain to date of 747 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 621 k more than 2012, just 31 k less than 2007, and 248k less than 2018***.
- 7.6% of the season done, 160 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.61 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.27 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Diminishing but +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual.
The Chukchi Sea resisting freeze, even small area losses in the last 2 days.

*** The difference in 2019 extent to 2018 extent is reducing. This means progress towards a new 365 day trailing average record low is slowing, putting the current projection into mid 2020 from early 2020. This could easily change either way in the course of the next few days.

All depends on whether slow refreeze is maintained. __________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2623 on: October 04, 2019, 03:54:38 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,680,114  km2

                        
Total Area         
 3,680,114    km2      
-183,774    km2   <   2010's average.
 16,685    km2   >   2018
-1,038,965    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    35    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas__    27    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    15    k   gain
CAA_________    5    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 35k, 12 k less than the 2010's average of 47 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Diminishing but +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual.
The Chukchi Sea resisting freeze, even small area losses in the last 3 days. ESS lost area on this day.

The age old conflict between heat and cold, with more ammo for heat.
______________________________________________
Question...
One of the recent posts on the freezing thread talked about foggy days preventing getting decent images over the Arctic.

Does fog - i.e. water vapour over the sea surface - slow down heat loss from the ocean that is still open water? I ask this as the models say the Arctic atmosphere is getting wetter, cmore cloudy and foggy days.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2624 on: October 04, 2019, 05:57:07 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):-   3,680,114 km2(October 3, 2019)
Analysis as for JAXA data


Area data shows quite a different picture from JAXA Extent, so I thought it might be a good idea to post this analysis.

On this day,
- Area gain on this day 35k, 12k less than the average of 47k,
- Area gain in this freezing season to date is 770 k, 23 k (2.9%) less than the average gain to date of 793 k.
- Area is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Area  is 665 k more than 2012, 217 k MORE than 2007, and  17k MORE than 2018***.
- 7.6% of the season done, 160 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 12.86 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record by 0.27 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Differences with JAXA extent ??

Area gain is much closer to average (-3%) than extent gain (-25%).
Current projected maxmum nowhere close to  record low in contrast with JAXA extentcurrent projections.

The difference in 2019 extent to 2018 extent reduced to zero over the last few days. This means that even if area gain slows dramatically, a  new 365 day trailing average record low before late 2021 is looking unlikely.

All depends on whether slow refreeze is maintained. __________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2625 on: October 04, 2019, 05:59:51 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):-   3,680,114 km2(October 3, 2019)
Analysis as for JAXA data

A bit more


Attached is the graph of 365 day trailing average,
and also the plume of projections for October.
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kassy

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2626 on: October 04, 2019, 09:38:07 PM »
Does fog - i.e. water vapour over the sea surface - slow down heat loss from the ocean that is still open water?

Yes it does. Basically there is only outgoing radiation now and it is in the way.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2627 on: October 04, 2019, 10:30:37 PM »
Quote
Arctic sea ice extent for September averaged 4.32 million square kilometers (1.67 million square miles), the third lowest in the 41-year continuous satellite record, behind 2012 and 2007.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

gandul

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2628 on: October 04, 2019, 10:45:59 PM »
Does fog - i.e. water vapour over the sea surface - slow down heat loss from the ocean that is still open water?

Yes it does. Basically there is only outgoing radiation now and it is in the way.
Yes indeed.
Where is the fog seen?
No me lo trago

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2629 on: October 05, 2019, 05:42:29 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 4th, 2019:
     4,534,324 km2, an increase of 18,749 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2630 on: October 05, 2019, 06:29:53 PM »
SIE growth is slowing. Would not surprise me if it stays in 2nd place for a while.

philopek

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2631 on: October 05, 2019, 07:36:28 PM »
SIE growth is slowing. Would not surprise me if it stays in 2nd place for a while.

Agree!

My guess is for about 10-14 days max before it becomes lowest again.

Even should the weather change significantly, currently there is not that much cold enough
water to allow for significant ice-growth, given the right conditions, even a small drop would
be possible even though not that probably at this time of the year.

BTW a 5-10 days long slow increase, given the melt onset in Antarctica, could see a significant
worsening of the global sea-ice situation as well.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2632 on: October 06, 2019, 05:46:23 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 5th, 2019:
     4,556,342 km2, an increase of 22,018 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

zufall

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2633 on: October 06, 2019, 10:05:46 AM »
A brief area comparison of 2019 vs. 2018

Total area minimum: 2,910k (-290k) -- Sep 5 vs. Sep 13

Minima of individual seas:
- Beaufort 135k (-142k) -- Sep 16 vs. Sep 12
- CAA 166k (-96k) -- Sep 6 vs. Sep 14
- CAB 2,252k (-3k) -- Aug 27 vs. Oct 11
- ESS 32k (-60k) -- Sep 16 vs. Sep 24
- Kara 25k (-2k) -- Sep 30 vs. Sep 12
- Laptev 20k (+8k) -- Sep 29 vs. Sep 10
- Baffin 7k (-12k) -- Sep 8 vs. Sep 9
- Greenland 93k (+48k) -- Sep 17 vs. Sep 6
- Chukchi and all other seas below 6k in both years

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2634 on: October 06, 2019, 12:23:29 PM »
Yesterday was my birthday. 18 again.
Normal service will be gradually resumed as my hangover dissipates
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2635 on: October 06, 2019, 12:47:14 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,556,342 km2(October 5, 2019)

This is the time of year when re-freeze is normally very rapid. On the other hand, some science papers have suggested that as AGW continues, the effect on Arctic Sea Ice may be greatest in late summer to early winter. Perhaps we are seeing the first signs?

- Extent gain on this day 22k, 45k less than the average of 67k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 592 k, 281 k (32.2%) less than the average gain to date of 873 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 527 k more than 2012, 96 k less than 2007, and 293k less than 2018***.
- 8.9% of the season done, 158 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.53 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.35 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual.

***  2019 extent gain in the last 2 days less than 2018, progress to a record low 365 day trailing sea ice speeds up a bit.

All depends on whether slow refreeze is maintained. __________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2636 on: October 06, 2019, 12:49:51 PM »
Yesterday was my birthday. 18 again.
Normal service will be gradually resumed as my hangover dissipates
Congratulations! Wishing you all the best - especially health and a long life!
PS: I do not believe that you are just 18...  ;)
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2637 on: October 06, 2019, 01:17:55 PM »
Does fog - i.e. water vapour over the sea surface - slow down heat loss from the ocean that is still open water?

Yes it does. Basically there is only outgoing radiation now and it is in the way.
Yes indeed.
Where is the fog seen?
A bit off-topic, but it seems fog is quite important for re-freeze at this time of year..

Whre is the fog seen ? All over the place - attached is a non-fog photo from the MOSAIC project thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2906.0.html)- location about 85 N, 135 E (I think) north of the Laptev sea. It mentions frequency of foggy conditions, which implies a lot of open water, i.e. not a solid ice pack.

Also - there is a project about fog that connects with the MOSAIC project.
http://www.belmontforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/AFV.pdf
AFV: Arctic Fog Variability in a Warming Arctic and Its Impact on Maritime Human
Activities

Quote
Call: Arctic Observing and Research for Sustainability
Type of Project: Type 3 - Research Grant
Lead PI: Xianyao Chen, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
Co-Leads:
David Atkinson, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Peiqing Guo, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
William Perrie, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada (and Dalhousie
University, Halifax, NS, Canada)
Francesco Tampieri, Institute of Atmospheric Science and Climate, Italian National Research
Council, Bologna, Italy
Ka-Kit Tung, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Jinping Zhao, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
Sponsored by: NSERC, NSFC, CNR, NSF

Duration: 01 Jan 2015 to 31 Dec 2019
The rapid retreat of sea ice in the last two decades has led to increased extent and duration of the open-water season, and has opened up the possibility of a summertime ice-free Arctic by the
middle of this century. Increased water vapor arising from enhanced evaporation, together with
low surface temperature, drives possible associated changes in the occurrence of fog. An
enhanced fog regime presents scientific and operational challenges: it complicates analysis of
climate feedback mechanisms because of its strong effect on near-surface radiation balance; it
also complicates the anticipated rush to increased trans-polar commercial shipping activity.
Previous studies have suggested that fog events are related to regional and larger-scale
meteorological processes. However the current limited availability of observational
surface/satellite data and our limited understanding of fog-sea ice interactions hinder accurate
forecasting of fog. This project will undertake a multi-pronged investigation of fog occurrence
that includes field missions, modeling, and analysis of historical records. The region of focus
encompasses the marginal ice zone of the Chukchi Sea, Canada Basin, and the seas around
Svalbard. A primary objective is to improve fog-sea ice feedback understanding, leading to the
development of better simulation capacity for future fog patterns in these regions. Continuous
observations of fog in the Arctic require international collaboration; this project includes
participants from four nations. An anticipated legacy of this project is the expected scientific
guidance to support potential Arctic shipping activities.

This project also serves as an antecedent to the "Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate" (MOSAIC), an international effort to harness "sustained observations to understand climate-relevant processes of the Arctic Ocean climate system."
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2638 on: October 06, 2019, 03:49:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,741,629   km2

                        
Total Area         
 3,741,629    km2      
-213,527    km2   <   2010's average.
 14,687    km2   >   2018
-1,130,981    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    22    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas__    15    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    9    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -6    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______    8    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 22k, 24 k less than the 2010's average of 46 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Diminishing but +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual.
The Chukchi Sea resisting freeze, even small area losses in the last 4 days. ESS lost significant area in the last 3 days.

The age old conflict between heat and cold, with more ammo for heat.
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2639 on: October 06, 2019, 09:58:10 PM »
I took the monthly extent value for September 2019 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average September extent is now 6,07 M km². September 2019 had an average extent of 4,32 M km², which is 1,75 M km² less than that average and the third lowest ever recorded since 1979, behind the record year 2012 and a smidgeon behind 2007.
This low level also kept the blue curve below the red long term linear trend line by -0,67 M km² (calculated from the trend line this September should have been at 4,99 M km²).
The slope of the overall trend line has decreased by two digits compared to August 2019.

See attached graph.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2640 on: October 07, 2019, 05:47:46 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 6th, 2019:
     4,601,823 km2, an increase of 45,481 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2641 on: October 07, 2019, 01:49:43 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,601,823 km2(October 6, 2019)


- Extent gain on this day 45k, 33k less than the average of 78k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 638 k, 313 k (33.0%) less than the average gain to date of 951 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 460 k more than 2012, 145 k less than 2007, and 273k less than 2018,
- 9.7% of the season done, 157 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.49 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.39 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..
Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly).

Extent gains still well below average - how long can this last?

All depends on whether slow refreeze is maintained. __________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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zufall

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2642 on: October 07, 2019, 03:20:44 PM »
If the extent gains don't catch up soon, 2019 will be lower than 2007 on its remaining 4 record days in October:

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2643 on: October 07, 2019, 03:40:22 PM »
What was the minimum daily NSIDC sea ice extent reading in 2019 and what day has that occurred?

NSIDC says it was second lowest, while the whole month was third lowest behind 2007 and 2012.

How much behind we stayed 2012 season on that minimum sea ice extent point?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2644 on: October 07, 2019, 04:10:38 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,741,629   km2
                        
Total Area         
 3,757,942    km2      
-241,662    km2   <   2010's average.
 26,526    km2   >   2018
-1,185,257    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    16    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -0    k   loss
Central Seas__    14    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    10    k   gain
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 16k, 28 k less than the 2010's average of 44 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
No real change....low daily gain continues
Diminishing but +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual.
The Chukchi Sea resisting freeze, even small area losses in the last 6 days. ESS lost significant area in the last 5 days.

The age old conflict between heat and cold, with more ammo for heat.
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

philopek

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2645 on: October 07, 2019, 05:39:37 PM »
What was the minimum daily NSIDC sea ice extent reading in 2019 and what day has that occurred?

NSIDC says it was second lowest, while the whole month was third lowest behind 2007 and 2012.

How much behind we stayed 2012 season on that minimum sea ice extent point?

What was the minimum daily NSIDC sea ice extent reading in 2019 and what day has that occurred?

NSIDC says it was second lowest, while the whole month was third lowest behind 2007 and 2012.

How much behind we stayed 2012 season on that minimum sea ice extent point?

I'm surprised since the answers are all over the place, since everyone who looks back to find the right numbers has to to the same job i recommend you do that yourself ?

You can start with this: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

but this thread as well as the melting season thread and other places and sites are really full of that information around those dates.

zufall

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2646 on: October 07, 2019, 06:42:18 PM »
He means NSIDC extent.

The lowest value for 1-day extent was 4,100 on Sep 16 while the lowest value for 5-day extent was 4,153 one day later. Both were 2nd lowest. The spreadsheets are here:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/

Since there was no update on this in recent days: The values for Oct 6 are 4,883 (daily extent) and 4,850 (5-day extent).

EDIT: reordered text

philopek

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2647 on: October 07, 2019, 07:29:42 PM »
He means NSIDC extent.

The lowest value for 1-day extent was 4,100 on Sep 16 while the lowest value for 5-day extent was 4,153 one day later. Both were 2nd lowest. The spreadsheets are here:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/

Since there was no update on this in recent days: The values for Oct 6 are 4,883 (daily extent) and 4,850 (5-day extent).

EDIT: reordered text

Thanks for your  correct addition/correction, the link to JAXA was just handier, lazy me ;)

I meant to begin with that one. Similar sources exist for nsidc of course and there were plenty of posts about the minimum on both platforms. JAXA and NSIDC.


Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2648 on: October 08, 2019, 05:45:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 7th, 2019:
     4,650,285 km2, an increase of 48,462 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2649 on: October 08, 2019, 12:17:33 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,650,285 km2(October 7, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 48k, 41k less than the average of 89k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 686 k, 354 k (34.0%) less than the average gain to date of 1,040 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 426 k more than 2012, 198 k less than 2007, and 266k less than 2018,
- 10.6% of the season done, 156 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.45 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.43 million km2.
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Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..
Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly).

Extent gains still well below average - how long can this last?

All depends on whether slow refreeze is maintained. __________________________________________________
« Last Edit: October 08, 2019, 07:18:54 PM by gerontocrat »
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