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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2650 on: October 08, 2019, 03:36:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,772,152 km2
                        
Total Area         
 3,772,152    km2      
-284,422    km2   <   2010's average.
 40,449    km2   >   2018
-1,245,511    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    14    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -5    k   loss
Central Seas__    18    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    8    k   gain
CAA_________    10    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 14k, 43 k less than the 2010's average of 57 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
Note how 2019 Area has retreated by 248k from the 2010's average which it equaled on 23 September, but 2018 retreated even more.
Also area is still 121k more than 2007.

I thought a plume of warm air was heading for the Barents. It seems to have arrived. It is also penetrating the CAB for a day or 2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
No real change....low daily gain continues.
Diminishing but +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual - at least for the next few days.

The age old conflict between heat and cold, with more ammo for heat.
______________________________________________
« Last Edit: October 08, 2019, 07:19:41 PM by gerontocrat »
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grixm

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2651 on: October 08, 2019, 03:42:22 PM »
Daily gain 14k, 28 k less than the 2010's average of 57 k.
43k less. Also on the JAXA extent post, it seem the two bottom images are identical.

Don't mind me, just your friendly neighborhood nitpicker

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2652 on: October 08, 2019, 07:20:44 PM »
Daily gain 14k, 28 k less than the 2010's average of 57 k.
43k less. Also on the JAXA extent post, it seem the two bottom images are identical.

Don't mind me, just your friendly neighborhood nitpicker
Post in haste, repent at leisure.

I seem to be acquiring quite a lot of nits requiring picking at the moment.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2653 on: October 09, 2019, 06:05:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 8th, 2019:
     4,650,923 km2, an increase of only 638 km2:o
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2654 on: October 09, 2019, 12:18:05 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,650,923 km2(October 8, 2019)

Extent gain stalled on this day - unusual - but not unknown

- Extent gain on this day 1 k, 82k less than the average of 83k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 687 k, 437 k (38.9%) less than the average gain to date of 1,124 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 336 k more than 2012, 300 k less than 2007, and 283k less than 2018,
- 11.4% of the season done, 155 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.37 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.51 million km2. It is really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is impressive, especially for such a low winter maximum given the historically very low reduction in the aforesaid winter maximum.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall  weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly).

Extent gains far below average - how long can this last?
__________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2655 on: October 09, 2019, 03:50:10 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,775,642 km2
                        
Total Area         
 3,775,642    km2      
-349,513    km2   <   2010's average.
 45,734    km2   >   2018
-1,315,720    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    3    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -4    k   loss
Central Seas__    6    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    7    k   gain
East Siberian__    8    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -21    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 3k, 66 k less than the 2010's average of 69 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
Note how 2019 Area has retreated by 350k from the 2010's average which it equaled on 23 September, but 2018 has still retreated even more, now 48k less than 2019.
Also area is still 73k more than 2007 - but greatly reduced.

The plume of warm air from the North Atlantic that headed for the Barents is now closing up. It penetrated the Barents, Greenland and Central Arctic Seas for a few days.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall  weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly).

Area gains far below average - how long can this last?
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2656 on: October 09, 2019, 06:40:35 PM »
A few days ago, NSIDC reported a 70k loss. Being in October it has to be a rather rare occurrence. Anyone who knows how common externt losses are in October?

macid

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2657 on: October 09, 2019, 07:08:46 PM »
A few days ago, NSIDC reported a 70k loss. Being in October it has to be a rather rare occurrence. Anyone who knows how common externt losses are in October?
At work I have to use Excel  ::) From ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx , basic previous day - current day calculation & color shading, looks like 2nd biggest drop measured in Oct

*edit: image updated to include end of Sept mask adjustment impacts as per gerontocrat's comment below (thanks for shielding us from those aberrations in the daily updates! :))
« Last Edit: October 09, 2019, 08:42:46 PM by macid »

gandul

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2658 on: October 09, 2019, 08:14:56 PM »
The not easy to understand or foresee Atlantic Front north of Svalbard. Not easy ocean or atmospheric dynamics. It has opened a big gap in a few weeks when the area had stayed ice-covered the whole summer... Has a lot to do with extent growth slowness as well.
No me lo trago

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2659 on: October 09, 2019, 08:20:53 PM »
A few days ago, NSIDC reported a 70k loss. Being in October it has to be a rather rare occurrence. Anyone who knows how common externt losses are in October?
At work I have to use Excel  ::) From ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx , basic previous day - current day calculation & color shading, looks like 2nd biggest drop measured in Oct
Always take the NSIDC data Oct 1 & Oct 2 with a pinch of salt - there is a big adjustment on Oct 1 -from NSIDC changing the mask and then sometimes adjustments to the adjustment.

November 1 will likely be the same.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2660 on: October 10, 2019, 05:42:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 9th, 2019:
     4,638,382 km2, a drop of -12,541 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gregcharles

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2661 on: October 10, 2019, 08:56:11 AM »
2007 has a bunch of catching up to do to hold on to its record next week. Still, it has a longer way to catch 2012, and somehow it managed that.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2662 on: October 10, 2019, 10:58:54 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,638,382 km2(October 9, 2019)

Extent loss on this day, extent gain stalled on the previous day, continuing this slow re-freeze that if maintained will be for the record books.
Caveat- By this date, 2018 refreeze was even slower- but finished the freezing season with slightly above average total gain.


- Extent LOSS on this day 13k, 109k less than the average gain of 96k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 674 k, 546 k (44.7%) less than the average gain to date of 1,220 k.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 232 k more than 2012, 592k less than 2016, 421 k less than 2007, and 329k less than 2018,
- 12.4% of the season done, 154 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.26 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.62 million km2. It is really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall  weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly).

Extent gains far below average and on this day -ve - how long can this last?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Projection   5,553,512
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be cause

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2663 on: October 10, 2019, 12:25:07 PM »
unless there is record breaking refreeze over the next week , 2007 will lose it's last few record low days . It is beginning to look like 2019 will be smashing those old records , not just breaking them .

 I notice a wave travelling along Juan's JAXA 2010's mean line as 2019 joins the data .

 Are we headed for less than 50% of the ice cover of the 1980's ? Even if briefly it would be a shocking fact ..

 b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2664 on: October 10, 2019, 01:25:01 PM »
<Clip>
Are we headed for less than 50% of the ice cover of the 1980's ? Even if briefly it would be a shocking fact ..

 b.c.
The gompertz fit for volume, that started on the 1980s reaching the midpoint? Or has it already, by eliminating the thickest ice first?

Unfamiliar with the volume-calculations so have to ask, I believe volume loss was more like linear?
« Last Edit: October 10, 2019, 01:31:47 PM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2665 on: October 10, 2019, 03:25:17 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,793,481 km2
                        
Total Area         
 3,793,481    km2      
-409,551    km2   <   2010's average.
 68,589    km2   >   2018
-1,374,958    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    18    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -6    k   loss
Central Seas__    21    k   gain
Other Seas___    3    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    9    k   gain
East Siberian__    8    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 18k, 60 k less than the 2010's average of 78 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
Note how 2019 Area has now retreated by 410k from the 2010's average which it equaled on 23 September, but 2018 has still retreated even more, now 68k less than 2019. However, after the 10th October, 2018 area starts to increase strongly.


Also area is now only 24k more than 2007.

The plume of warm air from the North Atlantic that headed for the Barents is now closing up. It penetrated the Barents, Greenland and Central Arctic Seas for a few days.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Again - still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so has been the overall  weather outlook for ages)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly).

Area gains far below average - how long can this last?
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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zufall

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2666 on: October 10, 2019, 03:57:38 PM »
Quote
unless there is record breaking refreeze over the next week , 2007 will lose it's last few record low days

Indeed, jump start needed:

2007 extent2019 extent/day to stay
 below 2007 on that day
 (rounded down)
Oct 165,554,234130,835
Oct 175,640,092125,213
Oct 185,790,119127,970
Oct 195,991,377135,299

karl dubhe2

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2667 on: October 10, 2019, 04:04:41 PM »
It's going to be interesting to see the effect that the open water is going to have on the weather in the North over the next few weeks/months.

For the first time in a number of years, we're seeing a 'normal' start to our cold season where I live.   Although it's still disgustingly more humid than it used to be.   A wet cold is nastier than a dry cold.  :(

blumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2668 on: October 10, 2019, 04:43:33 PM »
It has taken a lot of time and energy, successes and failures to build a library of spreadsheets and data sources. So it is a bit annoying to think people have to wade through a load of clutter to reach the data.

This is a data thread. So, please please please bring data or a new way of looking at the data (when discussion is great).
If not, bugger off.
Refugees welcome

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2669 on: October 10, 2019, 06:25:58 PM »
It's going to be interesting to see the effect that the open water is going to have on the weather in the North over the next few weeks/months.

For the first time in a number of years, we're seeing a 'normal' start to our cold season where I live.   Although it's still disgustingly more humid than it used to be.   A wet cold is nastier than a dry cold.  :(
disgustingly more humid than it used to be = a consequence of global heating, so the models say. The Ice Desert climate turns into a maritime climate as open water replaces ice.

Qu: Have you checked the temp against previous years ? Cold & clammy feels much colder than very cold but dry?
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2670 on: October 10, 2019, 06:32:54 PM »
It's going to be interesting to see the effect that the open water is going to have on the weather in the North over the next few weeks/months.

For the first time in a number of years, we're seeing a 'normal' start to our cold season where I live.   Although it's still disgustingly more humid than it used to be.   A wet cold is nastier than a dry cold.  :(

Where are you?

Eco-Author

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2671 on: October 10, 2019, 11:03:30 PM »
The opposite happened at the start of the season with massive drops, even if the max and min are not all time records, the beginning, end, and middles of the seasons often are.

[edit]: maybe this reflects the effect of CO2 to average out temps??
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2672 on: October 11, 2019, 05:48:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 10th, 2019:
     4,698,292 km2, an increase of 59,910 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2673 on: October 11, 2019, 01:04:11 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,698,292 km2(October 10, 2019)

Extent gain on this day still below average (but not by as much)

- Extent gain on this day 60k, 40k less than the average gain of 100k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 734 k, 586 k (44.4%) less than the average gain to date of 1,320 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is down to 182 k more than 2012, 551k less than 2016, 415 k less than 2007, and 347k less than 2018,
- 13.4% of the season done, 153 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.22 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.66 million km2. It is really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall  weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly), apart from a blob of cold over the pole.

Extent gains far below average  - how long can this last?
If it does  - 2019 lowest in circa 3-5 days?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by over 100k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Projection    5,525,165 
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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karl dubhe2

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2674 on: October 11, 2019, 02:05:05 PM »
It's going to
disgustingly more humid than it used to be = a consequence of global heating, s

Qu: Have you checked the temp against previous years ? Cold & clammy feels much colder than very cold but dry?

I've lived here for over 50 years.   :)   It's Edmonton, Canada.   I  have checked, and the humidity does seem to be higher, and so are the consequences.   Some old woods seem to be re-humidifying, but that could be wishful thinking on my part.   The other 'tell' is the lack of nosebleeds, tbh, the dry winters used to make my nose bleed every year; that stopped in 2005ish.   

One year, I spent a winter in Halifax, NS; I never complained about dry colds after that.    Until the winters here started to get 'wet'.   

Thanks again for the work you're doing on gathering this data.   

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2675 on: October 11, 2019, 03:16:20 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,833,674 km2
                        
Total Area         
 3,833,674    km2      
-448,872    km2   <   2010's average.
 115,126    km2   >   2018
-1,417,927    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    40    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -2    k   loss
Central Seas__    39    k   gain
Other Seas___    3    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    8    k   gain
East Siberian__    11    k   gain
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 40k, 40 k less than the 2010's average of 80 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area continues to get less than the 2010's average, now by 449k.

Also area is now 18 k LESS than 2007.

But 2018 has still retreated even more, now 115k less than 2019. However, after this day, 2018 area starts to increase strongly.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Again - still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so has been the overall  weather outlook for what seems like ages)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly), apart from a blob of cold over the pole.

Area gains far below average - how long can this last?
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2676 on: October 11, 2019, 03:38:49 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,833,674 km2

Two seas I am keeping an eye on as they could change the outlook for 2020 "Pacification".
& one because it is still receiving all that calving & melt from Greenland (both West & East Greenland - south-bound East Greenland strong surface current curves round the southern tip of Greenland & becomes the weak north-bound West Greenland current)

Chukchi & Bering How long will SSTs resist re-freeze?  When will the Bering put the plug in the Bering Strait?
Note the striking rebound in 2012

Baffin Still +ve SSTs.  A slow re-freeze changes the outlook next year for the entrance to the CAA opening up?
« Last Edit: October 11, 2019, 03:52:31 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2677 on: October 11, 2019, 05:23:11 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):-    3,833,674 km2(October 10, 2019)
Analysis as for JAXA data


Area data shows quite a different picture from JAXA Extent, so I thought it might be a good idea to post this analysis again.

On this day,
- Area gain on this day 40k, 35k less than the 10 year average of 75k,
- Area gain in this freezing season to date is 924 k, 259 k (21.9%) less than the average gain to date of 1,183 k.
- Area is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Area  is 319 k more than 2012, 119 k MORE than 2016, and 115k MORE than 2018***.
- 11.9% of the season done, 153 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining AREA gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 12.63 million km2, equal lowest in the satellite record with 2016.
____________________________________________________________
Differences with JAXA extent ??

Area gain less below average (-22%) than is extent gain (-44%).
Current projected maximum area is close to a record low in contrast with JAXA extent current projections suggesting a maximum of nearly 0.7 mllion km2 below the current record low maximum..

All depends on how long slow refreeze is maintained. Quite possible that area and extent gain will play catch-up later this month and next. __________________________________________________
« Last Edit: October 11, 2019, 08:01:42 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2678 on: October 11, 2019, 08:00:56 PM »
And to finish.....

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT (5 day trailing average):-  4,929,899 km2(October 10, 2019)
Analysis as for JAXA data


EXTENT data shows a picture in between NSIDC Area & JAXA Extent, so I thought it might be a good idea to post this analysis.

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 32k, 52k less than the 10 year average of 84k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 777k, 409 k (34.5%) less than the average gain to date of 1,186 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 362 k more than 2012,
- 11.7% of the season done, 150 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.83 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.42 million km2 compared with 2017.
____________________________________________________________
Differences with JAXA extent ??

NSIDC Extent gain a bit less below average (-35%) than is JAXA extent gain (-44%).
Current projected maximum extent is a record low by 0.4 million km2 in contrast with JAXA extent current projections suggesting a maximum of nearly 0.7 mllion km2 below the current record low maximum..

All depends on how long slow refreeze is maintained. Quite possible that area and extent gain will play catch-up later this month and next. __________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2679 on: October 12, 2019, 05:40:44 AM »
I cannot access the ADS (JAXA) page...  :(
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2680 on: October 12, 2019, 07:47:53 AM »
It is still not working...

Niall Dollard

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2682 on: October 12, 2019, 11:52:15 AM »
I cannot access the ADS (JAXA) page...

Neither can I. However see also:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2019/#Oct-12

Quote
2019 Arctic sea ice is extent is now once again “lowest for the date” (since the University of Bremen's AMSRx satellite records began).
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2683 on: October 12, 2019, 04:05:37 PM »
Maybe Hagibis is the reason for delay ?

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/10/12/asia/japan-typhoon-hagibis-intl-hnk/index.html?r=https%3A%2F%2Fedition.cnn.com%2Fsearch%3Fq%3DHagibis
Good comment, Niall.
I hope that there will not be too much damage in Japan and in ADS Office.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2019, 03:15:25 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

P-maker

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2684 on: October 12, 2019, 05:39:51 PM »
Maybe Hagibis and its violent twins in the Atlantic are also responsible for the record-low sea ice extent in the Arctic.

Could one say that this is a matter of "killing two birds in one throw"?
« Last Edit: October 12, 2019, 05:45:37 PM by P-maker »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2685 on: October 12, 2019, 05:58:55 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,876,057 km2
                        
Total Area         
 3,876,057    km2      
-490,947    km2   <   2010's average.
 137,031    km2   >   2018
-1,465,061    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    42    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    3    k   gain
Central Seas__    40    k   gain
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    13    k   gain
Central Arctic_    15    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    8    k   gain
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 42k, 42 k less than the 2010's average of 84 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area continues to get less than the 2010's average, now by 491 k.

Also area is now 51 k LESS than 2007.

But 2018 has still retreated even more, now 137k less than 2019. However, after this day, daily 2018 area gain starts to increase rapidly.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Again - still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so has been the overall  weather outlook for what seems like ages)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly but reducing to around 2.5), apart from a blob of cold over the pole expanding somewhat.

Area gains far below average - how long can this last?
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2686 on: October 12, 2019, 06:59:08 PM »
With JAXA out of action, here is a substitute........

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT (5 day trailing average):-   4,952,891  km2(October 11, 2019)
Analysis as for JAXA data


On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 23k, 73k less than the 10 year average of 96k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 800k, 482 k (37.6%) less than the average gain to date of 1,282 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 269 k more than 2012,
- 12.7% of the season done, 152 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.75 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.49 million km2 compared with 2017 (14.24 million km2).
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2687 on: October 12, 2019, 07:19:59 PM »
If we are eyeballing DMIs graph over Arctic temperaturen, we should start to see some decent extent gains soon. As Friv has pointed out earlier in another thread we should be very grateful that the melting in ESS was so resistent. Otherwise, the situation would have been a lot worse.

Niall Dollard

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2688 on: October 12, 2019, 08:51:13 PM »
If we are eyeballing DMIs graph over Arctic temperaturen, we should start to see some decent extent gains soon. As Friv has pointed out earlier in another thread .....

Is this not the data thread ?

Would posts like this be better served in the (main) freezing thread). ?

Besides i havent seen any posts by Friv in a long time. I dont think he bothers with the freezing thread.

Admittedly there isnt a whole lot going on freezing wise but if the posts are spread out like this into the data thread, the freezing thread wont get going  :)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2689 on: October 13, 2019, 04:29:18 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,933,237 km2
                        
Total Area         
 3,933,237    km2      
-524,798    km2   <   2010's average.
 139,516    km2   >   2018
-1,496,203    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    57    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__    42    k   gain
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    14    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    27    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 57k, 34 k less than the 2010's average of 91 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area continues to get less than the 2010's average, now by 525 k.

Also area is now 51 k LESS than 2007.

But 2018 has still retreated by a smidgeon more at 140k less than 2019. However, after this day, daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.

The increase in daily gain is mainly down to the Central Arctic Sea (extent gain 27k,) and the Greenland Sea, (on this day 14 k heading south to oblivion).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Again - still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so has been the overall  weather outlook for what has been ages)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly but reducing to around 2.5), apart from a blob of cold over the pole expanding somewhat.

Area gains though increasing still far below average - how long can this last?
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2690 on: October 13, 2019, 05:05:19 PM »
The JAXA webste is back on line, but no updates, and by the images being sent from Japan, maybe for some time. Hagibis certainly walloped 'em. So here is a substitute again........

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT (5 day trailing average):-    NSIDC – TOTAL Arctic Sea Ice EXTENT March Maximum – in km2 million  4,992,633

Analysis as for JAXA data


On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 40k, 61k less than the 10 year average of 101 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 839k, 544 k (39.3%) less than the average gain to date of 1,383 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 204 k more than 2012,
- 13.7% of the season done, 151 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.69 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.55 million km2 compared with 2017 (14.24 million km2).
____________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: October 13, 2019, 11:12:25 PM by gerontocrat »
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charles_oil

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2691 on: October 13, 2019, 08:08:55 PM »
Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 839k, 544 k (9.3%) less than the average gain to date of 1,383 k.
9.3% should read 39.3% perhaps ?
Many thanks for the regular updates too!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2692 on: October 13, 2019, 11:14:17 PM »
Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 839k, 544 k (9.3%) less than the average gain to date of 1,383 k.
9.3% should read 39.3% perhaps ?
Many thanks for the regular updates too!
Thanks, Charles.

& here is a thought. If at maximum gain is less than average by 9.3% - we will be stunned.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2693 on: October 14, 2019, 05:49:48 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 11th, 2019:
     4,764,619 km2, an increase of 66,327 km2.

October 12th, 2019:
     4,830,933 km2, an increase of 66,314 km2.

October 13th, 2019:
     4,880,849 km2, an increase of 49,916 km2.
     2019 is now the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
« Last Edit: October 14, 2019, 05:55:17 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2694 on: October 14, 2019, 12:52:25 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,880,849 km2(October 13, 2019)i

Extent gain on these last 3 days well below average
The headline is lowest in the Satellite record
Perhaps more significant is how slow the refreeze has been.


- Extent gain in the last 3 days 183k, 118k less than the average gain of 301k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 917 k, 704 k (43.4%) less than the average gain to date of 1,621 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (50 days his year),
- Extent is 31 k less than 2012, 556 k less than 2016, 336 k less than 2007, and 480 k less than 2018,
- 16.4% of the season done (.e. 1/6th), 150 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.10 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.78 million km2. It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly), apart from a blob of cold over the pole. This suggests that daily extent gain will increase but below average.

Extent gains well below average  - how long can this last?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by 180k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Projection     5,448,791
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2695 on: October 14, 2019, 03:42:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,002,982 km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,002,982    km2      
-549,695    km2   <   2010's average.
 131,535    km2   >   2018
-1,518,878    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    70    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    16    k   gain
Central Seas__    54    k   gain
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    17    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    6    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    39    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 70k, 25 k less than the 2010's average of 95 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 550 k.

Also area is now 51 k LESS than 2007.

But 2018 is still lower than 2019 by 132k . However, after this day, daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.

The increase in daily gain is is once again mainly down to the Central Arctic Sea (extent gain 37k,) and the Greenland Sea, (on this day 17 k heading south to oblivion).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Again - still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so has been the overall  weather outlook for what has been ages)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly average), apart from a blob of cold over the pole.

Area gains though increasing still well below average - how long can this last?
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2696 on: October 14, 2019, 04:04:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,002,982 km2

A bit more


Area continues to gain faster than extent. On this day NSIDC extent is more than 300k less than 2018, while NSIDC area is more than 100K greater than 2018.

The result is that Arctic sea ice dispersion decreases, while compaction is greater. The first 2 graphs (plus the arctic area graph in the above post) illustrate this .

The Central Arctic Sea (defined by NSIDC as basically the Arctic North of 80) in 2019 has also bucked the trend to a strong late summer melt. Not only that, but area  is increasing quickly again from an above average minimum followed by a hiatus. A very solid lump by maximum?

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Jontenoy

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2697 on: October 14, 2019, 05:15:44 PM »
Thanks Gerontocrat for the Area and Extent.
VOLUME is now the lowest for this time of year... see attached
Perhaps volume is as important as area and extent ?

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2698 on: October 14, 2019, 05:34:28 PM »
I'm not sure if volume is actually lowest.. that graph is missing 2012.

kassy

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2699 on: October 14, 2019, 05:41:26 PM »
A very solid lump by maximum?

Limited by compaction/incoming ice from the edge seas.
It will be interesting to see how much slower the refreeze is this year and what kind of start that will give us to the next melt season.



Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.