JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,942,783 km2(October 14, 2019)i
- Extent gain on this day 62k, 60k less than the average gain of 122k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 979 k, 764 k (43.9%) less than the average gain to date of 1,743 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (51 days his year),
- Extent is 159 k less than 2012, 597 k less than 2016, 394 k less than 2007, and 580 k less than 2018,
- 17.7% of the season done, 149 days on average to go.
The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.04 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.84 million km2. It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
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Ice Gain Outlook ??
Still no change to the basic comment.. (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall weather outlook)
Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly), apart from a blob of cold over the pole. This suggests that daily extent gain will increase but below average.
Extent gains well below average - how long can this last?
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ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by more than 200k.
JAXA Data - October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual 5,628,500
2016 Actual 5,862,319
2017 Actual 6,522,898
2018 Actual 5,916,648
2007 Actual 5,938,496
2019 Projection 5,413,747