Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2019 sea ice area and extent data  (Read 717917 times)

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 760
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 275
  • Likes Given: 331
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2700 on: October 14, 2019, 05:41:26 PM »
A very solid lump by maximum?

Limited by compaction/incoming ice from the edge seas.
It will be interesting to see how much slower the refreeze is this year and what kind of start that will give us to the next melt season.



Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2701 on: October 14, 2019, 05:55:13 PM »
I'm not sure if volume is actually lowest.. that graph is missing 2012.
The DMI Thickness Volume model has its supporters & those who believe it has major flaws.

Hence the Volume thread (PIOMAS) only considers volume as measured by the Polar Science Center. I believe they do a lot of data checking before publishing.

Thanks to Wipneus, we get the data twice a month though they only publish once a month.

Volume at minimum ? - maybe yes, maybe no. I wait for Wipneus - with luck by Oct 20 for up to Oct 15.

ps: Volume data does not belong on this thread
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

philopek

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 440
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 157
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2702 on: October 14, 2019, 07:23:50 PM »
I'm not sure if volume is actually lowest.. that graph is missing 2012.

But i'm totally sure because volume has been almost on 2012 level at minimum when extent was many hundred thousand of km2 higher than 2012 and obviously now that extent is lower than 2012, volume is lower than 2012 by quite some margin.

Of course I'm aware that are is still above 2012 but a fraction when compared to what the difference was at minimum when volume of 2019 was very close to 2012 as mentioned above.

We are lowest in volume now and that we are by a lot IMO.

philopek

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 440
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 157
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2703 on: October 14, 2019, 07:33:32 PM »
Thanks Gerontocrat for the Area and Extent.
VOLUME is now the lowest for this time of year... see attached
Perhaps volume is as important as area and extent ?

Yes, volume is the most important metric except as far as albedo (not relevant now) and a few other effects of open water agains partly ice covered area is.

Reason why extent and area are mainly used to make assessments of the state of the ice is that it's way easier to measure, therefore more reliable to measure and available for decades in a more or less consistent manner.

Last but not least, while extent can be "measured" volume up to this day is mostly modeled.

However that is and I'm sure a few commenters will add their take to this post, that does not take away anything from the fact that volume, whatever it is in reality, indicates to real amount of ice mass and that tells us the most as to how much ice mass we lost and are losing.

BTW this is the best reason IMO why any discussion about stalls in ice loss and other BS of that kind are useless and misleading because the decline in volume is obvious, did not stall at all and we already saw volumes that were lower than that in years when at the very same day extent was lower, simply due to the fact that the ice has gotten thinner and thinner over the years (average) because the >4 meters MYI has mostly gone by now, we lost about 90% of that kind of ice thickness while I did not verify the percentage, it's a guess from maps interpretation.

Those who long for (more) precise numbers are always free to look the details up. For me it's enough the obvious that we can see in the charts and maps provided.

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 758
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 230
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2704 on: October 14, 2019, 08:01:41 PM »
Philopek,
I attach a graph that supports your statement.
Please find attached a monthly graph of the volume anomalies from Jan 1979 up to Sept 2019. The linear trendline fits the data quite well, although there are some variations due to the natural variability of weather (e.g. a much lower than the trendline area in the early 1980s, 2010-2012 or 2016/17).
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2705 on: October 14, 2019, 09:40:33 PM »
I've been doing some stuff on extent, area and volume on the "When will the Arctic Go Ice-Free" thread. Latest effort at....

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.msg233093.html#msg233093
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1498
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 506
  • Likes Given: 504
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2706 on: October 15, 2019, 05:45:10 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 14th, 2019:
     4,942,783 km2, an increase of 61,934 km2.
     2019 is now the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1498
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 506
  • Likes Given: 504
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2707 on: October 15, 2019, 05:54:14 AM »
If the extent gains don't catch up soon, 2019 will be lower than 2007 on its remaining 4 record days in October:
Seems that you were right.  "Bye bye" to the 2007 daily remaining records!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2708 on: October 15, 2019, 04:08:13 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,942,783 km2(October 14, 2019)i

- Extent gain on this day 62k, 60k less than the average gain of 122k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 979 k, 764 k (43.9%) less than the average gain to date of 1,743 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (51 days his year),
- Extent is 159 k less than 2012, 597 k less than 2016, 394 k less than 2007, and 580 k less than 2018,
- 17.7% of the season done, 149 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.04 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.84 million km2. It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly), apart from a blob of cold over the pole. This suggests that daily extent gain will increase but below average.

Extent gains well below average  - how long can this last?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by more than 200k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Projection      5,413,747 
« Last Edit: October 15, 2019, 04:25:06 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2709 on: October 15, 2019, 07:57:23 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,068,078  km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,068,078    km2      
-580,964    km2   <   2010's average.
 105,178    km2   >   2018
-1,549,409    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    65    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__    52    k   gain
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    15    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    39    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 65k, 31 k less than the 2010's average of 96 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 581 k.

Also area is now 36 k LESS than 2007.

But 2018 is still lower than 2019 by 106 k (but by a smaller amount) 132k . However,  daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.

The increase in daily gain is is once again mainly down to the Central Arctic Sea (extent gain 39k,) and the Greenland Sea, (on this day another 15 k heading south to oblivion).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Again - still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so has been the overall  weather outlook for what has been ages)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and GFS says over the next 5 days most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual especially on the Pacific side (circa +2.5 celsius temp overall anomaly average), apart from a blob of cold over the pole waxing & waning.

And I don't dare mention GFS's temperature anomaly forecast for day 10

Area gains though increasing still well below average - how long can this last?
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1498
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 506
  • Likes Given: 504
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2710 on: October 16, 2019, 05:43:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 15th, 2019:
     5,034,952 km2, an increase of 92,169 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     The difference versus the lowest and 2nd lowest is 350K+ km2.  :o
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
« Last Edit: October 17, 2019, 05:58:06 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 758
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 230
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2711 on: October 16, 2019, 06:57:12 AM »
Juan,
thank you for your daily updates.  :)
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2712 on: October 16, 2019, 10:17:07 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  5,034,952 km2(October 15, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 92k, 44k less than the average gain of 136 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 1,071 k, 808 k (43.0%) less than the average gain to date of 1,878 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (52 days his year),
- Extent is 683 k less than 2018,
- 19.1% of the season done, 148 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.00 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.88 million km2. It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (GFS says circa +2.5 celsius temp overall anomaly in the next 5 days), apart from a blob of cold over the pole growing somewhat. This suggests that daily extent gain will increase but below average. After 5 days GFS says - wow.

Extent gains up but still well below average  - how long can this last?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by more than 220k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Projection       5,389,974   
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2713 on: October 16, 2019, 03:29:07 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,124,863  km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,124,863    km2      
-627,326    km2   <   2010's average.
 38,330    km2   >   2018
-1,589,222    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    57    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain
Central Seas__    46    k   gain
Other Seas___   -3    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    13    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    6    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    29    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    9    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Daily gain 57 k, 46 k less than the 2010's average of 103 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 627 k, 581 k .

Also area is now 40 k LESS than 2007.

But 2018 is still lower than 2019 by 38 k (but by a smaller amount) 95 k, 132k . However,  daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly. Indeed, it is likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low extent gains for some time to come (see graph)

The increase in daily gain is is once again mainly down to the Central Arctic Sea (extent gain 29k,) and the Greenland Sea, (on this day another 13 k heading south to oblivion).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Again - still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so has been the overall  weather outlook for what has been ages)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and GFS says over the next 5 days most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual especially on the Pacific side (circa +2.5 celsius temp overall anomaly average), apart from a blob of cold over the pole waxing & waning.

And I don't dare mention GFS's temperature anomaly forecast for days 8 to 10

Area gains though increasing still well below average - how long can this last?
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2714 on: October 16, 2019, 05:11:20 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):- 4,124,863  km2(October 15, 2019)
Analysis as for JAXA data


NSIDC Area data is still lagging behind NSIDC & JAXA Extent, so I thought it might be a good idea to post this analysis again.

On this day,
- Area gain on this day 57k, 46k less than the 10 year average of 103k,
- Area gain in this freezing season to date is 1,215 k, 439 k (26.5%) less than the average gain to date of 1,654 k.
- Area is still 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Area  is 189 k more than 2012, 95 k MORE than 2016, and 38k MORE than 2018, though these amount are steadily decreasing,
- 16.6% of the average freezing done, 148 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining AREA gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 12.45 million km2, lowest in the satellite record (0.18 million km2 less than the current record low in 2015-16).
____________________________________________________________
Outlook ??

If Area gain says well below average then in a week area will be lowest, i.e. all extent and area measures will be at record lows for the day. However, future 2016 gains were also very low, as can be seen from the graphs attached.

All depends on how long slow refreeze is maintained.  __________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1498
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 506
  • Likes Given: 504
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2715 on: October 17, 2019, 05:52:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 16th, 2019:
     5,121,652 km2, an increase of 86,700 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

P.S. 2007 had only four days keeping the lowest record: October 16th to 19th.
Today, 2019 made a new record with an outstanding difference of 432K km2.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2716 on: October 17, 2019, 09:56:34 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  5,121,652 km2(October 16, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 87k, 36k less than the average gain of 123 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 1,157 k, 844 k (42.2%) less than the average gain to date of 2,001 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (53 days his year),
- Extent is 659 k less than 2018,
- one average 20.3% (1/5th) of extent gain for the the season done, 147 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 12.96 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.92 million km2. It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer (but a bit less) than usual (GFS says circa +2 to +2.5 celsius temp overall anomaly in the next 5 days), apart from a blob of cold over the pole growing somewhat. This suggests that daily extent gain will increase but below average.

Extent gains up but still well below average  - how long can this last?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by nearly 250k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Projection  5,371,441   
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2717 on: October 17, 2019, 04:18:34 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,180,545 km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,180,545    km2      
-674,382    km2   <   2010's average.
-31,933    km2   <   2018
-1,630,693    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    56    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain
Central Seas__    43    k   gain
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    13    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    10    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    29    k   gain
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______    12    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 56 k, 47 k less than the 2010's average of 103 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 674 k, 627k, 581k .

2018 is now more than 2019 by 32 k, and daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly. Indeed, it is likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low extent gains for some time to come (see graph)

The increase in daily gain is is once again mainly down to the Central Arctic Sea (extent gain 29k,) and the Greenland Sea, (on this day another 13 k heading south to oblivion).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Again - still no real change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so has been the overall  weather outlook for what seems like ages)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and GFS says over the next 5 days most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual especially on the Pacific side (circa +2 to +2.5 celsius temp overall anomaly average), apart from a blob of cold over the pole waxing & waning.

Area gains may increase but still well below average ? - how long can this last?
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2718 on: October 17, 2019, 08:42:43 PM »
It is a month or so after minimum so here are NSIDC area graphs for the individual seas as at 16th October.
My guess is that more fuss would be made if this was happening in September.

Bering & Chukchi

Baffin & Hudson.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2719 on: October 17, 2019, 08:45:20 PM »
It is a month or so after minimum so here are NSIDC 4 more area graphs for the individual seas as at 16th October.
My guess is that more fuss would be made if this was happening in September.

Greenland, Barents, Kara, Laptev
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2720 on: October 17, 2019, 08:48:02 PM »
It is a month or so after minimum so here are NSIDC yet 4 more area graphs for the individual seas as at 16th October.
My guess is that more fuss would be made if this was happening in September.

Beaufort, CAA, ESS, Central Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2721 on: October 17, 2019, 08:49:29 PM »
Last 2 graphs,

Okhotsk, St Lawrence
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3960
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 416
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2722 on: October 17, 2019, 09:23:19 PM »
Thank you for the comprehensive update.

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1799
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 164
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2723 on: October 18, 2019, 03:14:54 AM »
The NSIDC data is blatantly wrong. The maps show refreeze beginning in Okhotsk and Kara and even NW Hudson Bay. But EOSDIS confirms there is no refreeze yet in these regions or many of the other peripheral areas to land showing white in the maps. The graphs corroborate the incorrect maps.

That is not to say NSIDC has no value, but, these graphs are currently quite misleading and the figures are inflated.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1498
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 506
  • Likes Given: 504
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2724 on: October 18, 2019, 05:56:04 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 17th, 2019:
     5,235,538 km2, a century increase of 113,886 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

P.S. Important difference of 405K km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2007 (2nd lowest).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2725 on: October 18, 2019, 11:26:16 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  5,235,538 km2(October 17, 2019)

Extent gain increased to close to trend on this day

- Extent gain on this day 114k, 8 k less than the average gain of 122 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 1,271 k, 852 k (40.1%) less than the average gain to date of 2,123 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (54 days his year),
- Extent is 537 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 1,255 k (19.3%)  less than the 2010's average,
- one average 21.6% (>1/5th) of extent gain for the the season done, 146 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 12.95 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.93 million km2. It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual (GFS says circa +2.5 to +3 celsius temp overall anomaly in the next 5 days), apart from the blob of cold over the pole diminishing and colder on the Atlantic side.

Extent gains on this day up to close to average - a one day event or has very low re-freeze halted?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by 260k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Projection   5,367,663
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 760
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 275
  • Likes Given: 331
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2726 on: October 18, 2019, 12:59:46 PM »
Big thanks for the regional updates, i was wondering about ESS and Laptev yesterday.

more fuss

I think it is interesting so far. ´How long can this last?´ is the main question but the data will tell us at some date.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2727 on: October 18, 2019, 03:16:25 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,233,883 km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,233,883    km2      
-724,429    km2   <   2010's average.
-75,576    km2   <   2018
-1,683,081    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    53    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    11    k   gain
Central Seas__    44    k   gain
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    12    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    10    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    22    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    17    k   gain
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 53 k, 50 k less than the 2010's average of 103 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 724 k, 674 k, 627k, 581k .

2018 is now more than 2019 by 76 k, and daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.
2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 95 k. Indeed, it is likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low extent gains for some time to come (see graph),

The increase in daily gain is is once again mainly down to the Central Arctic Sea (extent gain 22k,) and the Greenland Sea, (on this day another 12 k heading south to oblivion).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual (GFS says circa +2.5 to +3 celsius temp overall anomaly in the next 5 days), apart from the blob of cold over the pole diminishing and getting colder on the Atlantic side.

Area gains may increase but still stay well below average ? - how long can this last?
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

charles_oil

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 302
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2728 on: October 18, 2019, 08:14:30 PM »

I think its amazing to look at the two lowest on this day - #290 in (2012 / 2019)
NSIDC - 5 day EXTENT. 


The 1981 - 2010 median line is certainly way outside the current ice area!


Looks like there is a first glimmer of ice around the coast lines starting though....

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 758
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 230
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2729 on: October 18, 2019, 08:41:28 PM »
I just wonder which date of the 1981 - 2010 median line must be chosen to cover approximately the ice edge of today - if there is any...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gandul

  • New ice
  • Posts: 86
  • de verdad
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2730 on: October 18, 2019, 11:04:53 PM »
That's 'good' news, ain't it? Super late refreeze and all that...
No it ain't.
No me lo trago

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 885
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 253
  • Likes Given: 216
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2731 on: October 19, 2019, 01:59:58 AM »
At least the Greenland sea is enjoying a spurt of growth that looks set to continue for the next 10 days . Not great news either .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1498
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 506
  • Likes Given: 504
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2732 on: October 19, 2019, 05:48:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 18th, 2019:
     5,366,499 km2, a century increase of  130,961 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

P.S. Important difference of 424K km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2007 (2nd lowest).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2733 on: October 19, 2019, 12:13:45 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  5,366,499 km2(October 18, 2019)

Extent gain increased to very close to trend on this day

- Extent gain on this day 131k, 4 k less than the average gain of 135 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 1,402 k, 856 k (37.9%) less than the average gain to date of 2,258 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (55 days his year),
- Extent is 503 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 1,263 k (19.0%)  less than the 2010's average,
- one average 22.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 145 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 12.95 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.93 million km2. It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual (GFS says circa +2.2 to +3 celsius temp overall anomaly in the next 5 days), apart from the blob of cold over the pole diminishing and colder on the Atlantic side.

Extent gains for a second day up to close to average .
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice extent must play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. Will it? When?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by 260k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Projection   5,365,834 
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2734 on: October 19, 2019, 03:33:34 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,313,171 km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,313,171    km2      
-752,411    km2   <   2010's average.
-84,996    km2   <   2018
-1,717,513    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    79    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    13    k   gain
Central Seas__    66    k   gain
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    12    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    14    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    25    k   gain
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    21    k   gain
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Daily gain 79 k, 28 k less than the 2010's average of 107 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 752 k, 724 k, 674 k, 627k, 581k .

2018 is now more than 2019 by 85 k, and daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.
2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 125 k. Indeed, it is likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph),

The increase in daily gain is is once again mainly down to the Central Arctic Sea (area gain 25k,) and the Greenland Sea, (on this day another 12 k heading south to oblivion). In addition, a 21k gain in the Laptev, shutting the Russia Northern Sea Route.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual (GFS says circa +2.2 to +3 celsius temp overall anomaly in the next 5 days), apart from the blob of cold over the pole diminishing and getting colder on the Atlantic side.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice area & extent must play catch-up to get closer to the 2010 average values. Will they? When?
______________________________________________
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2735 on: October 19, 2019, 04:14:00 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,313,171 km2

The Arctic - a tale of 2 Oceans ?


Sea Ice Area is well below the 2010's average in just about all the Arctic Seas except for The Central Arctic Sea, (and the Greenland Sea due to strong recent ice export down the Fram Strait).

In figures....
Arctic Sea Ice Area is 752 k below the 2010's average.
Central Arctic Sea Ice area is 160 k above the 2010's average, currently 15th lowest in the satellite record.

If the Central Arctic Sea Ice area was at the 2010's average, then Arctic Sea Ice Area would be 912 k below the 2010's average, making lowest in the satellite record (currently 2nd behind 2016).

It is new to me to see such a contrast. Graphs attached (maximum contrast with the ESS and Chukchi)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1498
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 506
  • Likes Given: 504
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2736 on: October 20, 2019, 05:48:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 19th, 2019:
     5,500,537 km2, a century increase of 134,038 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

P.S. Important difference of 491K km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2007 (2nd lowest).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 758
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 230
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2737 on: October 20, 2019, 08:35:38 AM »
Compared to the 2010s average 2019 is 10 days behind, compared to the 2000s average 2019 is 31 days behind. A comparison with the 1990s and the 1980s is not possible, because their minima are higher than today's value.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

charles_oil

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 302
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2738 on: October 20, 2019, 10:20:36 AM »

Thanks Stephan - timely reminder....


I think there is something to be said for viewing the melt and later freezing as being behind / ahead x days. 


Most of the statistics are km2 above / below average / record - whereas maybe a good way of looking at it is that we are 10 /31 days behind in the freezing  compared to average - and will probably have 10 /31 days "less" freezing as a result.


gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2739 on: October 20, 2019, 11:06:15 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  5,500,537 km2(October 19, 2019)

Extent gain increased to very close to trend again on this day

- Extent gain on this day 134k, 2 k less than the average gain of 136 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 1,538 k, 858 k (35.8%) less than the average gain to date of 2,394 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (56 days his year),
- Extent is 510 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 1,270 k (18.8%)  less than the 2010's average,
- one average 24.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 144 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 12.95 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.93 million km2. It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual (GFS says circa +2.0 to +3 celsius temp overall anomaly in the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side.
 
Extent gains for a third day up to close to average, these last 2 weeks of October being the peak of daily average extent gain in the freezing season.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice extent must play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. Will it? When?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by 260k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Actual + Projection  5,364,883   
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2740 on: October 20, 2019, 03:24:20 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,401,297 km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,401,297    km2      
-779,354    km2   <   2010's average.
-87,415    km2   <   2018
-1,744,831    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    88    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain
Central Seas__    74    k   gain
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    11    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    8    k   gain
CAA_________    18    k   gain
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_    19    k   gain
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    23    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 88 k, 27 k less than the 2010's average of 115 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 779 k, 752 k, 724 k, 674 k, 627k, 581k .

2018 is now more than 2019 by 87 k, and daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.
2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 142 k (125 k). Indeed, it is likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph),
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual (GFS says circa +2.0 to +3 celsius temp overall anomaly in the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice area & extent must play catch-up to get closer to the 2010 average values. Will they? When?
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 758
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 230
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2741 on: October 20, 2019, 04:46:50 PM »
Almost all of the increase in Arctic Sea Ice Area is concentrated in CAB, Laptev and Grønland Sea, and less pronounced in CAA. All other seas are more or less ice-free or stable (Beaufort).
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1498
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 506
  • Likes Given: 504
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2742 on: October 21, 2019, 06:01:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 20th, 2019:
     5,625,765 km2, a century increase of 125,228 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. A difference of more than 1/2 million km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2018 (2nd lowest).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2743 on: October 21, 2019, 11:46:21 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 5,625,765 km2(October 20, 2019)

Extent gain increased to above average on this day - for the first time this month.
But the average on this day was a one day blip below trend.

- Extent gain on this day 125k, 17 k more than the average gain of 108 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 1,662 k, 840 k (33.6%) less than the average gain to date of 2,502 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (57 days his year),
- Extent is 510 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 1,252 k (18.2%)  less than the 2010's average,
- one average 25.4% (> 1/4th) of extent gain for the the season done, 143 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 12.97 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.91 million km2. It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual (GFS says rising from circa +2.0 to +3.5 celsius temp overall anomaly over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole re-emerging.
 
Extent gains for a third day up to close to and now above average, these last 2 weeks of October being the peak of daily average extent gain in the freezing season.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice extent must play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. Will it? When?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by over 250k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Actual + Projection 5,371,586   
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2744 on: October 21, 2019, 03:18:18 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,475,367 km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,475,367    km2      
-822,853    km2   <   2010's average.
-95,439    km2   <   2018
-1,792,334    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    74    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    12    k   gain
Central Seas__    61    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    10    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    12    k   gain
CAA_________    14    k   gain
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    23    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 74 k, 44 k less than the 2010's average of 118 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 823 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 95 k, and daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 127 k. Indeed, it is likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph),
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual (GFS says rising from circa +2.0 to +3.5 celsius temp overall anomaly over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole re-emerging.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice area & extent must play catch-up to get closer to the 2010 average values. Will they? When?
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Phil.

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 333
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2745 on: October 21, 2019, 04:16:51 PM »

I think its amazing to look at the two lowest on this day - #290 in (2012 / 2019)
NSIDC - 5 day EXTENT. 


The 1981 - 2010 median line is certainly way outside the current ice area!


Looks like there is a first glimmer of ice around the coast lines starting though....

That shown in the Sea of Okhotsk/Bering is due to the lower resolution images, look at the AMSR2 by Wipneus and you'll see it's still zero there.
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1498
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 506
  • Likes Given: 504
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2746 on: October 22, 2019, 06:05:32 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 21st, 2019:
     5,757,585 km2, a century increase of 131,820 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2747 on: October 22, 2019, 11:18:45 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 5,757,585 km2(October 21, 2019)

Extent gain increased to above average for a second day -  the first above average gains this month.

- Extent gain on this day 132k, 10 k more than the average gain of 122 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 1,793 k, 831 k (31.7%) less than the average gain to date of 2,624 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (58 days his year),
- Extent is 510 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 1,235 k (17.7%)  less than the 2010's average,
- one average 26.7% (> 1/4th) of extent gain for the the season done, 142 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 12.98 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.90 million km2. It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies rising from circa +2.5 to +3.8 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole re-emerging.
 
Extent gains for a third day up to close to and now above average, these last 2 weeks of October being the peak of daily average extent gain in the freezing season.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice extent must play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. Perhaps this has started
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by over 250k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Actual + Projection  5,374,988 
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2748 on: October 22, 2019, 04:40:39 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,537,471 km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,537,471    km2      
-885,089    km2   <   2010's average.
-122,650    km2   <   2018
-1,859,027    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    62    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    9    k   gain
Central Seas__    52    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    13    k   gain
CAA_________    9    k   gain
East Siberian__    12    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    20    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 62 k, 62 k less than the 2010's average of 124 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 825 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 123 k, and daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by just 86 k, 127 k the day before. Indeed, it is likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph),
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies rising from circa +2.5 to +3.8 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole re-emerging.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice area & extent must play catch-up to get closer to the 2010 average values. Extent may be already, Area definitely not
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1504
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2749 on: October 22, 2019, 05:04:47 PM »
NSIDC Total Area & Total Extent as at 21 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)

Just 2 graphs to show how area & extent gain has been so low this October
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)