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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2900 on: November 15, 2019, 03:34:08 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,703,083  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,703,083    km2      
-290,736    km2   <   2010's average.
-414,615    km2   <   2018
-974,614    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    63    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    22    k   gain
Central Seas__    33    k   gain
Other Seas___    7    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    24    k   gain
CAA_________    8    k   gain
East Siberian__   -11    k   loss
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Chukchi______    9    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

Daily gain 63 k, 33 k LESS than the 2010's average of 96 k.

Area gain well below average, the 3rd day since what seemed like ages of above average gains.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 291 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 415 k
- 2019 Area more than 2012 by 89 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 826 km2

2019 area is 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.1  to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? If the very high NSIDC daily extent gain on the last 2 days is maintained.......no?
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2901 on: November 16, 2019, 05:28:41 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 15th, 2019:
     9,003,212 km2, an increase of 46,763 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. There is no official value of 2018, average used.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2902 on: November 16, 2019, 12:37:38 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,003,212 km2(November 15, 2019)

A 2nd day of below average sea ice extent gain - on this day extremely low gain.

- Extent gain on this day 47 k, 47 k less than the average gain of 94 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,039 k, 155 k (3.2%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,884 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (546 k lower) and 2012 ( 94 k lower),
- Extent is 389 k less than 2018
- Extent is 268 k (2.9%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 49.6 % of extent gain for the the season done, 117 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.96 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.13 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.3  to +3.0 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2903 on: November 16, 2019, 04:02:44 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,755,585 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,755,585    km2      
-340,624    km2   <   2010's average.
-467,694    km2   <   2018
-978,130    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    53    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    17    k   gain
Central Seas__    26    k   gain
Other Seas___    9    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______    4    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    32    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -13    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -6    k   loss
Chukchi______    12    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    6    k   gain

Daily gain 53 k, 49 k LESS than the 2010's average of 102 k.

Area gain well below average, the 4th day.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 341 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 468 k
- 2019 Area less than 2012 by 21 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 781 km2

2019 area has moved up to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.3  to +3.0 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.
The Chukchi big bite looks very vulnerable to a sudden freeze once the wind stops.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2904 on: November 16, 2019, 07:15:42 PM »
Interesting how sea ice extent is higher than it was on this day in 2012 but area is lower. Could the high sea ice dispersion cause trouble in the 2020 melting season?

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2905 on: November 17, 2019, 04:47:01 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 16th, 2019:
     9,063,031 km2, an increase of 59,819 km2.
     2019 is still 3rd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2906 on: November 17, 2019, 11:33:56 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,063,031 km2(November 16, 2019)

A 3rd day of below average sea ice extent gain.
Extent gain this freezing season now half done.

- Extent gain on this day 60 k, 15 k less than the average gain of 75 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,099 k, 140 k (2.8%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,959 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (598 k lower) and 2012 ( 3 k lower),
- Extent is 443 k less than 2018
- Extent is 276 k (3.0%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 50.4 % of extent gain for the the season done, 116 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.95 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.12 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2907 on: November 17, 2019, 04:22:44 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,790,123 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,790,123    km2      
-401,403    km2   <   2010's average.
-557,349    km2   <   2018
-1,008,759    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    35    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    3    k   gain
Central Seas__    21    k   gain
Other Seas___    10    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    28    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -8    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -11    k   loss
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______    9    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain

Daily gain 35 k, 60 k LESS than the 2010's average of 95 k.

Area gain well below average, for the 5th day.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 401 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 557 k
- 2019 Area less than 2012 by 138 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 767 km2

2019 area has moved up to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo, and currently very low.
The Chukchi big bite still looks very vulnerable to a sudden freeze once the wind stops.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2908 on: November 18, 2019, 04:52:41 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 17th, 2019:
     9,146,740 km2, an increase of 83,709 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. 2016 is 729K km2 below the 2nd place (2019) and the difference will increase on the following days.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2909 on: November 18, 2019, 12:49:11 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,146,740 km2(November 17, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 84 k, 25 k more than the average gain of 59 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,183 k, 164 k (3.3%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,018 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (729 k lower extent) and 2012 ( 30 k higher extent),
- Extent is 464 k less than 2018
- Extent is 244 k (2.6%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 51.0 % of extent gain for the the season done, 115 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.97 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.09 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5  to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2910 on: November 19, 2019, 05:15:05 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 18th, 2019:
     9,255,893 km2, a century increase of 109,153 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. 2016 is 935K km2 below the 2nd place (2019) and the difference will increase on the following days.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2911 on: November 19, 2019, 11:34:02 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,255,893 km2(November 18, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 109 k, 63 k more than the average gain of 46 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,292 k, 228 k (4.5%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,064 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (729 k lower extent) and 2012 ( 30 k higher extent),
- Extent is 540 k less than 2018
- Extent is 177 k (1.9%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 51.5 % of extent gain for the the season done, 114 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.03 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.15 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.1  to +2.7 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2912 on: November 19, 2019, 03:24:52 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,835,941 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,835,941    km2      
-507,716    km2   <   2010's average.
-740,086    km2   <   2018
-1,119,482    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    24    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas__    10    k   gain
Other Seas___    8    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    13    k   gain
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    21    k   gain
CAA_________    5    k   gain
East Siberian__    16    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -21    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -12    k   loss
Laptev_______   -13    k   loss
Chukchi______    12    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    10    k   gain

Daily gain 24 k, 47 k LESS than the 2010's average of 71 k.

Area gain well below average, for the 7th day.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 508 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 740 k
- 2019 Area less than 2012 by 353 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 882 km2

2019 area 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.1  to +2.7 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo, and on this day changed from very low to very high.

The Chukchi big bite now looks its started a sudden freeze now the wind has changed.
In contrast, area losses on the Atlantic Front from strong winds from the North Atlantic.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2913 on: November 20, 2019, 07:09:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 19th, 2019:
     9,349,965 km2, an increase of 94,072 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (In the graph, 2012, 2016 & 2017 highlighted).

P.S. 2016 is 1.05 million km2 below the 2nd place (2019). This low extent must be the reason to have the lowest monthly volumen record, from November 2016 to July 2017.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2914 on: November 20, 2019, 10:47:06 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,349,965 km2(November 19, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 94 k, 48 k more than the average gain of 46 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,386 k, 275 k (5.4%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,110 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (1,047 k lower extent), 2012 ( 55 k higher extent), and 2017 ( 15 k higher extent),
- Extent is 518 k less than 2018
- Extent is 129 k (1.4%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 51.9 % of extent gain for the the season done, 113 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.08 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.20 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.6  to +2.7 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2915 on: November 20, 2019, 03:15:40 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,882,946 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,882,946    km2      
-532,602    km2   <   2010's average.
-809,347    km2   <   2018
-1,155,329    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    47    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -1    k   loss
Central Seas__    37    k   gain
Other Seas___    10    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    14    k   gain
Greenland____   -13    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    13    k   gain
CAA_________    6    k   gain
East Siberian__    35    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -21    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______   -6    k   loss
Chukchi______    20    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain

Daily gain 47 k, 25 k LESS than the 2010's average of 72 k.

Area gain well below average, for the 8th day, but creeping up.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 533 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 809 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 957 km2

2019 area 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.0  to +2.6 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo, and on this day very high for a 2nd day.

The Chukchi big bite has started a rapid freeze now the wind has changed.
In contrast, area losses on the Atlantic Front (including the Central Arctic Sea) from strong winds from the North Atlantic.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Niall Dollard

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2916 on: November 21, 2019, 01:00:17 AM »
Recent tweet from Rick Thoman has pointed out that Bering sea ice extent has kicked off and reached the 50,000km2 mark. (NSIDC data)
Earliest date it has reached this level since 2012.

It's only though in the shallow sounds and bays and will still be vulnerable to destructive swells and wind.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2917 on: November 21, 2019, 04:45:30 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 20th, 2019:
     9,408,208 km2, an increase of 58,243 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2007, 2012, 2016 & 2017 highlighted).

P.S. 2016 is one million km2 below the 2nd place (2019). This low extent must be the reason to have the lowest monthly volumen record, from November 2016 to July 2017.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2918 on: November 21, 2019, 09:58:43 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,408,208 km2(November 20, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 58 k, 12 k less than the average gain of 70 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,444 k, 264 k (5.1%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,180 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (1,005 k lower extent), 2012 ( 92 k higher extent), and 2017 ( 12 k higher extent),
- Extent is 565 k less than 2018
- Extent is 144 k (1.5%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 52.6 % of extent gain for the the season done, 112 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.07 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.19 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5  to +2.4 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2919 on: November 21, 2019, 03:21:59 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,956,714 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,956,714    km2      
-525,778    km2   <   2010's average.
-838,530    km2   <   2018
-1,155,528    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    74    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    12    k   gain
Central Seas__    56    k   gain
Other Seas___    7    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    17    k   gain
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    10    k   gain
East Siberian__    38    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -10    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    24    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain

Daily gain 74 k, 7 k MORE than the 2010's average of 67 k.

Area gain a bit above average, and increasing.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 526 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 839 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,031 km2

2019 area 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5  to +2.4 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.

The Chukchi big bite in a rapid freeze now the wind has changed.
In contrast, area losses on the Atlantic Front (including the Central Arctic Sea) from strong winds from the North Atlantic.
________________________________________________________________________
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2920 on: November 21, 2019, 05:02:44 PM »
Recent tweet from Rick Thoman has pointed out that Bering sea ice extent has kicked off and reached the 50,000km2 mark. (NSIDC data)
Earliest date it has reached this level since 2012.

It's only though in the shallow sounds and bays and will still be vulnerable to destructive swells and wind.

Although if you look at the higher resolution Uni-Bremen there is not as much ice in those bays.

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2921 on: November 21, 2019, 05:33:39 PM »
At least compared to 2016-2018, Bering has indeed started refreezing earlier this year. See UH animation in the Freezing Season thread.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2922 on: November 21, 2019, 07:32:37 PM »
After some days with winds pushing ice north East and West, the winds changes to shoving ice towards  the Bering Strait. This looks like continuing until the 24-25 Nov - and then a complete reversal again.

The area graphs show the double effect - especially the ESS. The Bering Sea also caught a cold.
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2923 on: November 21, 2019, 07:41:53 PM »
In contrast, in recent days strong Atlantic southerly winds have caused extent reductions on the Atlantic Front, even pushing back the ice edge into the Central Arctic Sea. The wind pattern now looks somewhat confused.

But here are the graphs to the 20 Nov
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2924 on: November 22, 2019, 04:50:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 21st, 2019:
     9,473,916 km2, an increase of 65,708 km2.
     2019 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2007, 2012, 2016 & 2017 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2925 on: November 22, 2019, 11:26:03 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,473,916 km2(November 21, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 66 k, 20 k less than the average gain of 86 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,510 k, 244 k (4.6%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,266 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 873 k more than 2016
- Extent is 14 k more than 2017
- Extent is 658 k less than 2018
- Extent is 165 k (1.7%)  less than the 2010's average,

- on average 53.5 % of extent gain for the the season done, 111 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.05 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.17 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.9  to +2.7 celsius over the next 5 days, - increasing warmth in the Chukchi/Bering, getting colder on the Atlantic Front
_____________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: November 22, 2019, 02:53:01 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2926 on: November 22, 2019, 02:28:22 PM »
"Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (873 k lower extent), 2012 ( 106 k higher extent), and 2017 ( 14 k lower extent),"?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2927 on: November 22, 2019, 02:54:10 PM »
"Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (873 k lower extent), 2012 ( 106 k higher extent), and 2017 ( 14 k lower extent),"?
I was being lazy.
Post amended.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2928 on: November 22, 2019, 03:23:46 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,065,970 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 8,065,970    km2      
-482,709    km2   <   2010's average.
-802,964    km2   <   2018
-1,108,800    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    109    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    32    k   gain
Central Seas__    72    k   gain
Other Seas___    6    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    17    k   gain
Greenland____    8    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    8    k   gain
East Siberian__    37    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______    24    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain

Daily gain 109 k, 43 k MORE than the 2010's average of 66 k.

Area gain a very much above average, and increasing.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 483 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 803 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,097 km2

2019 area 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.9  to +2.7 celsius over the next 5 days, - increasing warmth in the Chukchi/Bering, getting colder on the Atlantic Front.
 
Will daily gains stay above average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.

The Chukchi big bite is in a rapid freeze now the wind has changed and is now only a medium-sized bite. Area area losses on the Atlantic Front have stopped apart from small losses in the Kara & Laptev Seas.

It seems winds - direction, strong or weak, are the main short-term influences at the moment.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2929 on: November 23, 2019, 04:52:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 22nd, 2019:
     9,577,624 km2, a century increase of 103,708 km2.
     2019 is now 4th lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2007, 2012, 2016 & 2017 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2930 on: November 23, 2019, 11:38:41 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,577,624 km2(November 22, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 104 k, 16 k more than the average gain of 88 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,510 k, 244 k (4.6%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,266 k.
- Extent is down to 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 867 k more than 2016
- Extent is 98 k more than 2017
- Extent is 42 k more than 2006
- Extent is 695 k less than 2018
- Extent is 145 k (1.5%)  less than the 2010's average,

- on average 54.4 % of extent gain for the the season done, 110 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.07 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.19 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.9  to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days, - increasing warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, getting colder on the Atlantic Front and the Central Arctic Ocean
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2931 on: November 23, 2019, 04:18:08 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,218,936 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 8,218,936    km2      
-401,240    km2   <   2010's average.
-735,973    km2   <   2018
-1,010,227    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    153    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    37    k   gain
Central Seas__    107    k   gain
Other Seas___    10    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    17    k   gain
Greenland____    10    k   gain
Barents ______    8    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    5    k   gain
East Siberian__    35    k   gain
Central Arctic_    26    k   gain
         
Kara_________    12    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______    24    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain

Daily gain 153 k, 82 k MORE than the 2010's average of 71 k.

Area gain extremely above average, and increasing mightily.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 401 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 736 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,143 km2

2019 area still 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.9  to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days, - increasing warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, getting colder on the Atlantic Front and the Central Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay above average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.

The Chukchi big bite is in a very rapid freeze now the wind has changed and is now only a medium-sized bite. Area area losses on the Atlantic Front have stopped . Greenland and Barents Seas gains accelerating

It seems winds - direction, strong or weak, are still the main short-term influences at the moment.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2932 on: November 24, 2019, 05:21:11 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 23nd, 2019:
     9,655,591 km2, an increase of 77,967 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2007, 2012, 2016 & 2017 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2933 on: November 24, 2019, 01:33:49 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,655,591 km2(November 23, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 78 k, 26 k whoops more less than the average gain of 104 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,691 k, 234 k (4.3%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,457 k.
- Extent is down to 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 837 k more than 2016
- Extent is 102 k more than 2017
- Extent is 98 k more than 2006
- Extent is 0 k more than 2010.

- Extent is 659 k less than 2018
- Extent is 170 k (1.7%)  less than the 2010's average,

- on average 55.4 % of extent gain for the the season done, 110 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.04 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.16 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.7  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, - increasing warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, getting colder on the Atlantic Front.
_____________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: November 24, 2019, 03:34:44 PM by gerontocrat »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2934 on: November 24, 2019, 03:23:25 PM »
gerontocrat:
Quote
Extent gain on this day 78 k, 26 k more than the average gain of 104 k
Don't you mean less than?
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2935 on: November 24, 2019, 03:30:35 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,369,058 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 8,369,058    km2      
-331,746    km2   <   2010's average.
-676,734    km2   <   2018
-915,265    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    150    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    30    k   gain
Central Seas__    109    k   gain
Other Seas___    11    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    15    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    32    k   gain
Central Arctic_    19    k   gain
         
Kara_________    19    k   gain
Laptev_______    13    k   gain
Chukchi______    23    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain

Daily gain 150 k, 69 k MORE than the 2010's average of 81 k.

Area gain extremely above average - peaked?.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 332 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 677 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,136 km2

2019 area still 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.7  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, - increasing warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, getting colder on the Atlantic Front.
 
Will daily gains stay above average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.

The Chukchi big bite is in a very rapid freeze and is now only a medium-sized bite. Area losses on the Atlantic Front have stopped . Greenland and Barents Seas gains continuing.

It seems the ice is thin and broken and at the mercy of the winds.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2936 on: November 24, 2019, 03:35:47 PM »
gerontocrat:
Quote
Extent gain on this day 78 k, 26 k more than the average gain of 104 k
Don't you mean less than?

Thanks Tom, left my brain in the car park today.
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2937 on: November 24, 2019, 03:41:55 PM »
You're welcome, gerontocrat.
I have had some brain farts posting online myself, a few of them even more embarrassing.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2938 on: November 24, 2019, 09:38:17 PM »
Quote
Thanks ..., left my brain in the car park today.
At least you had one (and have one if you retrieved it). [/attempt at humour]

Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2939 on: November 25, 2019, 04:50:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 24nd, 2019:
     9,700,094 km2, an increase of 44,503 km2.
     2019 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2940 on: November 25, 2019, 11:58:59 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,700,094 km2(November 24, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 45 k, 51 k less than the average gain of 96 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,736 k, 183 k (3.3%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,553 k.
- Extent is back up to 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 743 k more than 2016
- Extent is 61 k less than 2017
- Extent is 124 k more than 2006
- Extent is 52 k less than 2010.

- Extent is 647 k less than 2018
- Extent is 219 k (2.2%)  less than the 2010's average,

- on average 56.4 % of extent gain for the the season done, 108 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.99 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.11 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.9  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front.
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2941 on: November 25, 2019, 03:13:32 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,487,916 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 8,487,916    km2      
-293,174    km2   <   2010's average.
-649,135    km2   <   2018
-850,640    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    119    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    30    k   gain
Central Seas__    82    k   gain
Other Seas___    7    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    4    k   gain
Greenland____    13    k   gain
Barents ______    12    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    24    k   gain
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________    16    k   gain
Laptev_______    11    k   gain
Chukchi______    19    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    6    k   gain

Daily gain 119 k, 39 k MORE than the 2010's average of 80 k.

Area gain extremely above average but less than the previous 2 days - peaked, maybe?.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 293 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 649 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,095 km2

2019 area still 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.9  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front..
 
Will daily gains stay above average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.

The Chukchi big bite is in a very rapid freeze and is now only a medium-sized bite. Area losses on the Atlantic Front have stopped and reversed. Greenland and Barents Seas gains continuing.

It seems the ice is thin and broken and at the mercy of the winds, which NullSchool indicates may be very variable in strength and direction.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2942 on: November 25, 2019, 11:42:09 PM »
Extent gain seems to be fluctuating around the trend line in a neat sinusoidal pattern. I wonder how long (if at all) it will stay that way.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2943 on: November 26, 2019, 05:56:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 25th, 2019:
     9,757,995 km2, an increase of 57,901 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
« Last Edit: November 27, 2019, 05:35:32 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2944 on: November 26, 2019, 12:47:49 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,757,995 km2(November 25, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 58 k, 15 k less than the average gain of 73 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,794 k, 168 k (3.0%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,626 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 669 k more than 2016
- Extent is 78 k less than 2017
- Extent is 169 k more than 2006
- Extent is 102 k less than 2010.

- Extent is 635 k less than 2018
- Extent is 231 k (2.3%)  less than the 2010's average,

- on average 57.2 % of extent gain for the the season done, 107 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.97 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.09 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.0  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front.

Winds highly variable in strength and direction.
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2945 on: November 26, 2019, 03:27:17 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,595,019 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 8,595,019    km2      
-271,107    km2   <   2010's average.
-650,028    km2   <   2018
-793,251    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    107    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    26    k   gain
Central Seas__    69    k   gain
Other Seas___    11    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
Greenland____    14    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    19    k   gain
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
         
Kara_________    17    k   gain
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Chukchi______    16    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain

Daily gain 107 k, 22 k MORE than the 2010's average of 85 k.

Area gain well above average but less than the previous 3 days - peaked, maybe?.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 271 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 650 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,048 km2

2019 area now 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.0  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front.

Winds highly variable in strength and direction.

Will daily gains stay above average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.

Area losses on the Atlantic Front have stopped and reversed. Greenland and Barents Seas gains continuing. Chukchi extent gains continuing.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2946 on: November 27, 2019, 05:16:43 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 26th, 2019:
     9,821,610 km2, an increase of 63,615 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2947 on: November 27, 2019, 08:59:34 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,821,610 km2(November 26, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 64 k, 24 k less than the average gain of 88 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,857 k, 144 k (2.5%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,714 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 598 k more than 2016
- Extent is 150 k less than 2017
- Extent is 140 k more than 2006
- Extent is 98 k less than 2010.

- Extent is 589 k less than 2018
- Extent is 255 k (2.3%)  less than the 2010's average,

- on average 58.1 % of extent gain for the the season done, 106 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.95 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.07 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.7  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front.

Winds highly variable in strength and direction.
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2948 on: November 27, 2019, 10:56:42 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,690,540  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 8,690,540    km2      
-265,187    km2   <   2010's average.
-671,957    km2   <   2018
-755,147    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    96    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    26    k   gain
Central Seas__    58    k   gain
Other Seas___    11    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____    12    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    9    k   gain
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________    24    k   gain
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    12    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    10    k   gain

Daily gain 96 k, 6 k MORE than the 2010's average of 90 k.

Area gain above average but less than the previous 4 days.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 265 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 672 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,004 km2

2019 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.7  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front.

Winds highly variable in strength and direction.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2949 on: November 28, 2019, 05:45:11 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 27th, 2019:
     9,852,457 km2, an increase of 30,847 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.