Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2019 sea ice area and extent data  (Read 836528 times)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8060
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2792
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3100 on: December 29, 2019, 08:07:14 PM »
Freezing season graphs attached...

2. Canadian Seas

Baffin Bay daily area gains trundling along at average but from a very late start, so sea ice area is low.

Canadian Archipelago full up ice.

Hudson Bay had a fast refreeze though late. Nearly complete but currently stalled.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8060
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2792
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3101 on: December 29, 2019, 08:19:00 PM »
Freezing season graphs attached...

3.Atlantic Front

Greenland Sea doing its usual dither as Fram export waxes and wanes. Sea Ice Area currently just over 80% of 2010's average maximum, and close to 2010's average for end-December

Barents Sea - sea ice area currently closely following 2000's average, i.e. close on 150k greater than 2010's average. Looks like just over half done.

Kara Sea. Sea ice area freeze started late but competed early at above 2010's average

Laptev Sea. Sea ice area started freeze late and completed at an average time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8060
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2792
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3102 on: December 29, 2019, 08:27:28 PM »
Freezing season graphs attached...

4 Central Arctic

Beaufort Sea. Freeze completed at the average time.

East Siberian Sea. Refreeze was very late from a very low sea ice area. But freeze completed at an average time.

Central Arctic Sea. This last bulwark against sea ice loss started with a well above average sea ice area minimum. Freeze was well above average, becoming complete at well above 2010's level and very early.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8060
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2792
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3103 on: December 29, 2019, 08:32:35 PM »
Freezing season graphs attached...

5 Other

Okhotsk Sea. Freeze still at an early stage. Sea ice area a bit above 2010's average.

St Lawrence Sea.  Freeze does not get going until January.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 800
  • Likes Given: 602
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3104 on: December 30, 2019, 04:57:13 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 29th, 2019:
     12,249,504 km2, a drop of -10,315 km2.
     2019 is 6th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8060
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2792
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3105 on: December 30, 2019, 11:58:12 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,249,504 km2(December 29, 2019)

Extent gain stalled, and now a 10 k drop. A 2 day wonder?

- Extent gain on this day -10 k, 84 k LESS than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 74 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,285 k, 462 k (5.9%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,823 k.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 223 k more than 2016
- Extent is 285 k more than 2018
- Extent is 57 k (0.5%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 79.5 % of extent gain for the the season done, 73 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - this year very different so far until these last two days.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.27 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.39 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.7 to -1.3 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea area looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chuckchi.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8060
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2792
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3106 on: December 30, 2019, 03:25:41 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 11,328,602 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,328,602    km2      
 276,177    km2   >   2010's average.
 371,813    km2   >   2018
-190,949    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     28    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     22    k   gain
 Central Seas__     8    k   gain
 Other Seas___    -1    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     12    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     6    k   gain
 Greenland____    -2    k   loss
 Barents ______     5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    9    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss

Daily gain 28 k, 28 k LESS than the 2010's average of 56 k.

- 2019 Area now more than the 2010's average by 276 k.
- 2019 Area is MORE than 2018 by 372 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 920 km2
- 2019 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

After recent high gains in area for 11 days, below average gain for 2 days.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.7 to -1.3 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chukchi.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 800
  • Likes Given: 602
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3107 on: December 31, 2019, 01:48:42 AM »
I will be traveling on the next 7 hours, so I will appreciate if someone else updates the ADS JAXA data.

Thank you.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

mabarnes

  • New ice
  • Posts: 51
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 45
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3108 on: December 31, 2019, 05:43:04 AM »
I will be traveling on the next 7 hours, so I will appreciate if someone else updates the ADS JAXA data.

Thank you.

JAXA 12/30 Extent 12,287,365 sq. km.
Gain of 37,861 sq. km.

I used the same years as Juan has been using in the graph ... table will have to wait for the man himself eh ...  8)

MrGreeny

  • New ice
  • Posts: 15
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3109 on: December 31, 2019, 09:55:30 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 30th, 2019:
    12,287,365km2 an increase of 37,861km2
    2019 is 6th lowest on record.

Graph attached.
Self calculated so if there's any any errors please point them out, thanks :)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8060
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2792
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3110 on: December 31, 2019, 12:26:33 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,287,365 km2(December 30, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 38 k, 14 k LESS than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 52 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,323 k, 448 k (5.8%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,875 k.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 202 k more than 2016
- Extent is 234 k more than 2018
- Extent is 41 k (0.3%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 80.0 % of extent gain for the the season done, 72 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - this year very different so far until these last three days.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.25 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.37 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS not responding - so no data. 

Bering Sea area looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chukchi - now up to 60 kmH through the straight.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8060
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2792
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3111 on: December 31, 2019, 03:36:59 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 11,354,275 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,354,275    km2      
 244,917    km2   >   2010's average.
 348,440    km2   >   2018
-211,184    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     26    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     18    k   gain
 Central Seas__     0    k   gain
 Other Seas___     7    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     13    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     5    k   gain
 Greenland____     1    k   gain
 Barents ______    -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    7    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    14    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss

Daily gain 26 k, 31 k LESS than the 2010's average of 57 k.

- 2019 Area now more than the 2010's average by 245 k.
- 2019 Area is MORE than 2018 by 348 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 842 km2
- 2019 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

After recent high gains in area for 11 days, below average gain for 3 days.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.5 to -0.8 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chukchi.

see https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/12/31/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-42.61,94.89,562/loc=1.394,89.560

for the North wind streaming through the Bering Strait into the Bering Sea
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 800
  • Likes Given: 602
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3112 on: January 01, 2020, 05:03:19 AM »
Thank you, Mabarnes and MrGreeny, for your posts.
Happy 2020 everybody!!!  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 31st, 2019:
     12,354,510 km2, an increase of 67,145 km2.
     2019 is now 7th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

MrGreeny

  • New ice
  • Posts: 15
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3113 on: January 01, 2020, 05:15:57 AM »
Thank you, Mabarnes and MrGreeny, for your posts.
Happy 2020 everybody!!!  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 31st, 2019:
     12,354,510 km2, an increase of 67,145 km2.
     2019 is now 7th lowest on record.

No worries and happy new year to you as well :)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8060
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2792
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3114 on: January 01, 2020, 12:42:30 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,354,510 km2(December 31, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 67 k, 35 k MORE than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 32 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,390 k, 483 k (6.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,907 k.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 258 k more than 2016
- Extent is 190 k more than 2018
- Extent is 72 k (0.6%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 80.3 % of extent gain for the the season done, 71 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recently this year has seen mostly well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.29 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.41 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.5 to -0.8 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chukchi - now up to 60 KMH through the straight.

Also possibly a strong wind developing down the Fram over the next few days.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8060
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2792
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3115 on: January 01, 2020, 03:06:25 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 31 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 11,375,010 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,375,010    km2      
 205,321    km2   >   2010's average.
 309,646    km2   >   2018
-237,527    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     21    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     23    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -14    k   loss
 Other Seas___     12    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     16    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     4    k   gain
 Greenland____     3    k   gain
 Barents ______    -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -16    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    14    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 21 k, 39 k LESS than the 2010's average of 60 k.

- 2019 Area now more than the 2010's average by 205 k.
- 2019 Area is MORE than 2018 by 310 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 787 km2
- 2019 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

After recent high gains in area for 11 days, below average gain for 4 days.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.5 to -0.8 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chukchi - now up to 60 KMH through the straight.

Also possibly a strong wind developing down the Fram over the next few days.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8060
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2792
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3116 on: January 01, 2020, 11:52:28 PM »
Because the data is at Dec 31, here is a little extra for New Year's Day

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA 5 day trailing average data :- 11,375,010 km2(December 31, 2019)

- Area gain on this day 21 k, 35 k MORE than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 56 k,
- Area gain in this freezing season to date is 8,465 k, 376 k (4.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8.089 k.
- Area is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Area is 787 k more than 2016
- Area  is 310 k more than 2018
- Area is 185 k (1.7%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 81.1 % of extent gain for the the season done, 74 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually area gains slow down - recently this year has seen mostly well above average gains but in the last 4 days gone below average.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.26 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record on 27 March 2016 by 0.63 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.5 to -0.8 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chukchi - now up to 60 KMH through the straight.

Also possibly a strong wind developing down the Fram over the next few days.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 800
  • Likes Given: 602
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3117 on: January 02, 2020, 05:13:39 AM »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 800
  • Likes Given: 602
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3118 on: January 03, 2020, 03:42:53 PM »
New year, new  thread…  :)
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.0.html#new
I locked the "2020 Sea ice area and extent data" by mistake. I thought I was putting it as a headline on "Arctic sea ice" but what it happened is that we can not make a new post on it.
So I suggest that we use this 2019 thread as the one to put new posts and wait until Neven or Dungeonmaster fix the problem.

Or Gerontocrat can open a new thread and we forget the one that i opened.

Sorry…  :-[
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8060
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2792
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3119 on: January 03, 2020, 08:26:49 PM »
New year, new  thread…  :)
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.0.html#new
I locked the "2020 Sea ice area and extent data" by mistake. I thought I was putting it as a headline on "Arctic sea ice" but what it happened is that we can not make a new post on it.
So I suggest that we use this 2019 thread as the one to put new posts and wait until Neven or Dungeonmaster fix the problem.

Or Gerontocrat can open a new thread and we forget the one that i opened.

Sorry…  :-[
New thread being made - need Neven to make it sticky and unstick the 2019 thread
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

pietkuip

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 238
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 117
  • Likes Given: 161
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3120 on: January 08, 2020, 03:29:58 PM »
Attaching to last year's thread an AGU webinar from October, recently uploaded to Youtube.

Quote
Climate Findings from a 40-Year Satellite Record of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice

A few weeks after the Arctic sea ice reached its minimum coverage for 2019, Dr. Claire L. Parkinson shares the story of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice as revealed from a 40-year satellite record and how the sea ice relates to the rest of the climate system.

Interesting talk. Something that I did not know about was the Wedell polinya in the 1970's. Also the dramatic trend change in Antarctic sea ice.