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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #350 on: March 08, 2019, 04:07:17 PM »
Ice extent in two seas, not really part of the Arctic ocean, has maxed out at greater than 1980's average extent.
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #351 on: March 08, 2019, 06:18:27 PM »

The eastern seaboard of both Asia and North America have been particularly strong ice growth this season. The peripheral seas have increased ice while the Bering and Barents are still below long term averages (though the Barents sea is catching up).

Perhaps its due to increased incursions of air from the Pacific and Atlantic disrupting the polar vortex and pushing cold air South and East over the continents; WACCy? It's hard to draw any conclusions from one season. In my naive understanding of fluid dynamics, its almost as if the mixing has been intensified, that there is more energy pushing the cold and warm air masses around.

Trading transitory ice in the south for thinner ice with lower extent further north will do little for preserving the summer ice over the Arctic. It might be, however,  that increased ice in the south will reduce the isolation for the planet on a year to year basis, and provide a negative feedback.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #352 on: March 09, 2019, 05:19:29 AM »
Hang on - the max so far is 14,194,560. Surely it needs 101,100 k or so, not 27k?
Sorry, my mistake.  :P

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 8th, 2019:
     14,117,749 km2, an increase of 24,265 km2.
     2019 is now 9th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 76,812 km2 to reach a new max.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2019, 05:26:32 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #353 on: March 09, 2019, 09:36:10 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,117,749 km2(March 8, 2019)

Through (justifiable?) obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred...
- Extent now just 77k less than current maximum on 22 Feb,
- Extent GAIN 24k, 44 k more than the average LOSS of 20k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 73 k (0.7%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 97.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 3 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3 out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.195 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is merely possibly the 2019 maximum. It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +2.5 to +0 degrees over the next 3 days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with the Pacific side  and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

I still wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new maximum, given the lateness in the freezing season.

Still not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #354 on: March 09, 2019, 02:36:11 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 March 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,835,175 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,835,175    km2      
-49,662    km2   <   2010's average.
 585,350    k   >   2018
-575,385    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    19    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas__    15    k   gain
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    6    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area GAIN 19 k, 5 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 14 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +2.5 to +0 degrees over the next 3 days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with the Pacific side  and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

I still wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new maximum, given the lateness in the freezing season.
_____________________________________________________________
ps: Daily NSIDC Extent up by 19k to 14.703 million KM2, and now only 32 k less than the current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb..

Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some time..
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #355 on: March 10, 2019, 05:04:32 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 9th, 2019:
     14,150,474 km2, an increase of 32,725 km2.
     2019 is now 8th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 44,087 km2 to reach a new max.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #356 on: March 10, 2019, 01:12:27 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,150,474 km2(March 9, 2019)

Through (justifiable?) obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred...
- Extent now just 44k less than current maximum on 22 Feb,
- Extent GAIN 33k, 69 k more than the average LOSS of 36k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 4 k (0.0%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 98 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 2 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.195 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is merely possibly the 2019 maximum. It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +2.5 to +0 degrees over the next 3 days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with the Pacific side  and Baffin bay tending to some warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

I am obviously more confident the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new JAXA maximum extent, given lack of matching extreme warmth on the Pacific side.

Still not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #357 on: March 10, 2019, 04:30:02 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,854,701 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,854,701    km2      
-34,784    km2   <   2010's average.
 527,506    k   >   2018
-554,194    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    20    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas__    22    k   gain
Other Seas___   -8    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    7    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Area GAIN 20 k, 15 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 5 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +2.5 to +0 degrees over the next 3 days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with the Pacific side  and Baffin bay tending to some warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.


I no longer have to wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new NSIDC maximum extent. See below.
_____________________________________________________________
ps: Daily NSIDC Extent up by 38k to 14.740 million KM2, 5k greater than what was the current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb..

Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some time..
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #358 on: March 11, 2019, 05:53:02 AM »
I am not able to access the ADS NIPR page. It sends me to twitter, but there is no message on twitter explaining what is happening.  :(
Maybe someone of you will access the data...
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #359 on: March 11, 2019, 06:57:40 AM »
I just experienced the same   :(
Hopefully JAXA data will be available soon...

Jim Hunt

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Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #361 on: March 11, 2019, 09:56:58 AM »
And as usual, just when things get really exciting...  :'(
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bbr2314

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #362 on: March 11, 2019, 10:53:45 AM »
I think daylight savings ruins all the charts. CCIN has gone blank as well. Who needs Y2K when the monkeys change the clocks twice a year anyways for no apparent reason.

Jim Hunt

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #363 on: March 11, 2019, 12:24:17 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #364 on: March 11, 2019, 01:56:50 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,885,159 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,885,159    km2      
-6,909    km2   <   2010's average.
 487,268    k   >   2018
-524,865    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    30    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    16    k   gain
Central Seas__    19    k   gain
Other Seas___   -5    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    8    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    8    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area GAIN 30 k, 27 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 3 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +2.5 to +0 degrees over the next 3 days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with the Pacific side  and Baffin bay tending to some warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

I no longer have to wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new NSIDC maximum extent. See below.
_____________________________________________________________
ps: Daily NSIDC Extent
             09/03/19   14.743
            10/03/19   14.742
.
.

Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some time..
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #365 on: March 11, 2019, 02:08:39 PM »
I think daylight savings ruins all the charts. CCIN has gone blank as well. Who needs Y2K when the monkeys change the clocks twice a year anyways for no apparent reason.

Not in Japan
Daylight Saving Time (DST) Not Observed in Year 2019. Tokyo currently observes Japan Standard Time (JST) all year. The previous DST change in Tokyo was on September 8, 1951.
Daylight Saving Time Changes 2019 in Tokyo, Japan
https://www.timeanddate.com/time/change/japan/tokyo

ps : https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current is up and running Ok

pps:Daylight saving time 2019 in United Kingdom will begin at 01:00 on
Sunday, 31 March
and ends at 02:00 on
Sunday, 27 October
All times are in United Kingdom Time.

ppps: Daylight saving time 2019 in Canada & United States of America began at 02:00 on
Sunday, 10 March
and ends at 02:00 on
Sunday, 3 November
All times are in Eastern Time.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #366 on: March 12, 2019, 04:56:44 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

I was looking  to congratulate Neven today, for holding on the call of the max for the 2018-19 freezing season.
But on JAXA data, we will have to wait to be sure.  :(
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #367 on: March 12, 2019, 12:24:34 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

I was looking  to congratulate Neven today, for holding on the call of the max for the 2018-19 freezing season.
But on JAXA data, we will have to wait to be sure.  :(

yeah, winds blew a lot of ice through bering and there was no significant reduction elsewhere, hence we can assume that a new max has been reached yesterday or will be reached today.

curious to see the facts of course

however i consider my theory expressed in the "guess the max" thread as failed (proven wrong)
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #368 on: March 12, 2019, 02:02:53 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,936,787 km2
         
Total Area         
 Total Area         
 12,936,787    km2      
 44,942    km2   >   2010's average.
 477,206    k   >   2018
-466,718    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    52    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    36    k   gain
Central Seas__    12    k   gain
Other Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    16    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Area GAIN 52 k, 52 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 0 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +1 to +0 degrees over the next 24 hours days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with no real direction of travel except mostly a bit chilly.

I no longer have to wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new NSIDC maximum . All measures, area , extent, daily, 5 day averages, are at new maxima. Difficult to see JAXA data not on a similar path.

Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some time , and looking more like up than down...
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #369 on: March 13, 2019, 02:01:50 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,992,156 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,992,156    km2      
 99,538    km2   >   2010's average.
 478,661    k   >   2018
-396,654    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    55    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    44    k   gain
Central Seas__    9    k   gain
Other Seas___    3    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    24    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area GAIN 55 k, 54 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 1 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will vary from +2.5 to -1 degrees over the next 10 days, with no real direction of travel except mostly a bit chilly, especially on the Atlantic Front.

All measures, area , extent, daily & 5 day averages, are at new maxima. It is difficult to impossible to assume JAXA data is not on a similar path. Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some days, and looking more like up than down...
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arctic-watcher

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #370 on: March 13, 2019, 04:49:42 PM »
Is JAXA extent data still unavailable? 

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #371 on: March 13, 2019, 07:24:02 PM »
Is JAXA extent data still unavailable?
Yes.
Last tweet from NIPR ......
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zufall

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #372 on: March 14, 2019, 10:09:25 AM »
JAXA is available again! Extent at 14.22M on March 13.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #373 on: March 14, 2019, 10:36:43 AM »
Then crow it is. But I'll also have a piece of that pie, Jim (if you'll share it).  :)
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #374 on: March 14, 2019, 11:57:50 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,150,474 km2(March 9, 2019)

Through (justifiable?) obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred...
- Extent now just 46k less than current maximum on 12 March,
- Extent loss 46k, 51 k more than the average gain of 5k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 25 k (0.3%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) it is 2 days after the maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 4  out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.271 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.271 million km2 on the 12th March is merely possibly(though more likely)  the 2019 maximum. It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually from around -0.5 degrees to +3 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side.

Still not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?

Not all of us are eating crow pie, he said smugly.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #375 on: March 14, 2019, 12:05:17 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

New max on March 12th: 14,271,121 km2.
Congrats Neven! You were right holding up the max call!  ;)
 
March 13th, 2019:
     14,224,663 km2, a drop of -46,458 km2.
     2019 is 8th lowest on record.

« Last Edit: March 14, 2019, 12:40:13 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #376 on: March 14, 2019, 03:38:01 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  13,042,392 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,042,392    km2      
 141,851    km2   >   2010's average.
 471,854    k   >   2018
-331,612    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    50    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    48    k   gain
Central Seas__    5    k   gain
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    19    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______    26    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Area GAIN 50 k, 42 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 8 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually from around -0.5 degrees to +3 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side. 

The data suggests that after 2 or 3 days further area gain, there is a genuine prospect of the melting season getting underway.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Brigantine

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #377 on: March 14, 2019, 08:57:24 PM »
Previous maxima [JAXA extent, since 2005] in million square km: [re-ordered]
2019 is now the median

1. 2017: 13.88
2. 2018: 13.89
3. 2015: 13.94
4. 2016: 13.96
5.= 2006: 14.13
5.= 2011: 14.13
7. 2007: 14.21
8. 2019 to date: 14.27
mean: 14.31
9. 2005: 14.4
10. 2014: 14.45
11. 2013: 14.52
12. 2009: 14.66
13. 2010: 14.69
14. 2012: 14.71
15. 2008: 14.77

High: Barents, St. Lawrence, Okhotsk, CAB
Low: Bering, Baffin (specifically the Subpolar Gyre, per CIS anomaly charts)
« Last Edit: March 14, 2019, 09:22:47 PM by Brigantine »

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #378 on: March 15, 2019, 12:19:23 AM »
NSIDC max for 2019 so far: 14,883,000 on March 11
JAXA max for 2019 so far: 14,271,121 on March 12
Feel The Burn!

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #379 on: March 15, 2019, 04:48:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 14th, 2019:
     14,184,906 km2, a drop of -39,757 km2.
     2019 is 8th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #380 on: March 15, 2019, 09:09:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,184,906 km2(March 14, 2019)

- Extent now 86k less than current maximum of 12 March,
- Extent loss 40k, 49 k more than the average gain of 9k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- On average (last 10 years) it is 3 days after the maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 4  3 out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.271 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.271 million km2 on the 12th March is likely the 2019 maximum.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually from around -0.5 degrees to +1.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side.

Still not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #381 on: March 15, 2019, 02:05:11 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)   13,090,986 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,090,986    km2      
 170,560    km2   >   2010's average.
 469,005    k   >   2018
-266,814    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    49    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    52    k   gain
Central Seas__    0    k   gain
Other Seas___   -3    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    17    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    25    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area GAIN 49 k, 29 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 20 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually change from around -0.5 degrees to +1.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side. 

The data suggests that after 2 or 3 days further area gain, there is a genuine prospect of the melting season getting underway.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #382 on: March 16, 2019, 04:59:23 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 15th, 2019:
     14,148,530 km2, a drop of -36,376 km2.
     2019 is 8th lowest on record.

P.S. 2012 is the 19th. lowest and is 518K km2 above 2019...
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #383 on: March 16, 2019, 06:35:27 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,148,530 km2(March 15, 2019)

- Extent now 123k less than current maximum of 12 March,
- Extent loss 36k, 61 k more than the average gain of 25k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- On average (last 10 years) it is 4 days after the maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 4 3 only 1 out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.271 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.271 million km2 on the 12th March is very much probably the 2019 maximum.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually rise from around -0.5 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side.

Is this the day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
« Last Edit: March 16, 2019, 07:22:18 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

psymmo7

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #384 on: March 16, 2019, 06:59:03 AM »
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually from around -0.5 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side.

There is a word missing: "rise" after "will gradually"

Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #385 on: March 16, 2019, 09:05:57 AM »
Oh, now it should drop like a stone for me to be averagedly correct, I guess it'll be pie for me too. Last seasons apple jam and some dough to the oven or something like that.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Jim Hunt

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #386 on: March 16, 2019, 01:22:35 PM »
Is this the day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?

Obviously I'm biased. Equally obviously the answer is yes!

TMMMV (The management's mileage may vary)
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #387 on: March 16, 2019, 02:08:02 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  13,123,348 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,123,348    km2      
 184,917    km2   >   2010's average.
 440,414    k   >   2018
-220,376    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    32    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    40    k   gain
Central Seas__   -2    k   loss
Other Seas___   -6    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    18    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area GAIN 32 k, 14 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 18 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually change from around -0.5 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side. 

The data suggests that after 2 or so days further area gain, there is a genuine prospect of the melting season getting underway.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #388 on: March 17, 2019, 04:49:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 16th, 2019:
     14,093,381 km2, a drop of -55,149 km2.
     2019 is now 7th lowest on record.
     (2012 also highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #389 on: March 17, 2019, 11:39:39 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,093,381 km2(March 16, 2019)

- Extent now 178k less than current maximum of 12 March,
- Extent loss 55k, 66 k more than the average gain of 11k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- On average (last 10 years) it is 5 days after the maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 4 3 1  zero out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.271 million km2 .

i.e. Extent at 14.271 million km2 on the 12th March is surely the 2019 maximum.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually rise from around -0.5 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side.

Surely this is the day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kassy

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #390 on: March 17, 2019, 04:20:09 PM »
Juan & Ger thanks for reporting on this winter season.

And bonuspoints for zilching that huge +/- error....those things ´are doing me ´ead in´.

 

Phil.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #391 on: March 17, 2019, 04:22:13 PM »
Extent loss 55k, 66 k more than the average gain of 11k on this day.

I know what you mean but it seems a rather strange way to say it?
Perhaps Extent loss 55k, 66 k less than the average gain of 11k on this day, just a thought, thanks for your work in posting this data.  :)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #392 on: March 17, 2019, 08:31:02 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  13,113,396 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,113,396    km2      
 162,395    km2   >   2010's average.
 371,029    k   >   2018
-220,565    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -10    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__    1    k   gain
Other Seas___   -26    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    15    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -11    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Area LOSS 10 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 13 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually change from around -0.5 degrees to +3 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side. 

A surprising swift switch from area gain to area loss, entirely due to losses in the Okhotsk, St Lawrence and Hudson seas. From today posting will assume the melting season is getting underway.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #393 on: March 17, 2019, 08:54:28 PM »
I think it is time to thank gerontocat and Juan for presenting up-to-date tables, statistics and information which were almost delivered daily (on some days Juan would have posted the data but he couldn't due to a JAXA timeout).
You two have contributed much valuable information. Please keep up your good work :-)

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #394 on: March 17, 2019, 08:58:30 PM »
I normally push the Like button as silent thanks, but I'll join the public thanking ceremony. JCG's and Ger's area/extent posts are the ones I first read whenever I get the chance.

miki

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #395 on: March 17, 2019, 09:49:49 PM »
I normally push the Like button as silent thanks, but I'll join the public thanking ceremony. JCG's and Ger's area/extent posts are the ones I first read whenever I get the chance.

Same here. Thanks, guys. So much appreciated.

Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #396 on: March 17, 2019, 10:44:15 PM »
JAXA SIE total freeze for the 2018/2019 winter was 9,813,869 km2:
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #397 on: March 18, 2019, 04:45:54 AM »
Juan & Ger thanks for reporting on this winter season.
I'll join the public thanking ceremony. JCG's and Ger's area/extent posts are the ones I first read whenever I get the chance.
Thanks everyone! It really felt like a public thanking ceremony!   ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 17th, 2019:
     14,017,283 km2, a drop of -76,098 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     (2012 also highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Rod

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #398 on: March 18, 2019, 04:52:31 AM »
I'm late to the ceremony, but thank you Juan and Gerontocrat!  I read your posts first thing every morning when I wake up.  Thank you for the work you do in providing the info!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #399 on: March 18, 2019, 05:03:51 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,017,283 km2(March 17, 2019

- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 76k, 61 k more than the average loss of 15k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 254k, 149 k (142%) greater than average of 105k,
- On average 1.1% of the melting season done, with 180 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.24 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will vary from -0 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2019, 05:10:12 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)