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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #400 on: March 18, 2019, 02:04:10 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  13,081,068 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,081,068    km2      
 124,443    km2   >   2010's average.
 299,543    k   >   2018
-249,598    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -32    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -1    k   loss
Central Seas__   -5    k   loss
Other Seas___   -26    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -11    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -11    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss
Area LOSS 32 k, 38 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 6 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will vary from -0 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days.

A surprising swift switch from area gain to area loss, mostly due to losses in the Okhotsk, St Lawrence and Hudson seas.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Ktb

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #401 on: March 19, 2019, 01:21:44 AM »
My excel document has been retrofitted and is currently up to date.

JAXA max extent on March 12th, with an extent on 14,271,121 km^2. This requires a daily extent loss of -72,520 km^2 for 183 straight days (on average) -71,736 km^2 for 185 straight days for a blue ocean event to occur.

So far, we have 1 day of above necessary extent loss (in green). However, we are still not on pace (in red).

As of March 17th, we now require daily drops of -73,131 km^2 for the next 178 days. -72,318 km^2 for the next 180 days.


Of note, I have decided to limit these posts to twice per month, on the first and last days respectively. I'll figure it out. Still working on things.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2019, 05:19:35 AM by Ktb »
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #402 on: March 19, 2019, 01:50:44 AM »
JAXA max extent on March 12th, with an extent on 14,271,121 km^2. This requires a daily extent loss of -72,520 km^2 for 183 straight days (on average) for a blue ocean event to occur.
I like your comment, but the truth, I discard a blue ocean event (BOE) on the near future.

I think that we are on a new stage, in which it will be bad enough if on the following 12 years (2030):
   a) We have 3 years like 2012 or a little worst.
   b) We have an increase in the annual average sea level rise.
   c) We have an increase in methane emissions, because of permafrost melting.

I think that we have a big probability of seeing these three events on the following 12 years, no matter what we do.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

interstitial

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #403 on: March 19, 2019, 02:40:10 AM »
Thanks for your BOE spreadsheet KTB. I have two comments. 
Would First and middle of the month break it up better than first and last day of the month?
Does the daily melt requirement too turn green change for the older days as they get further behind or do they have the same threshold value as when they are initially calculated? Does that make sense? I can't always tell when I am clear or not.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #404 on: March 19, 2019, 04:52:24 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 18th, 2019:
     14,005,938 km2, a drop of -11,345 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #405 on: March 19, 2019, 07:25:43 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,005,938 km2(March 18, 2019)

- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 11k, 2 k more than the average loss of 9k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 265k, 151 k (133%) greater than average of 114k,
- On average 1.2% of the melting season done, with 179 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.24 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will increase from +1.5 degrees to +4.5 over the next week or so.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #406 on: March 19, 2019, 01:48:06 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  13,034,643 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,034,643    km2      
 85,179    km2   >   2010's average.
 253,830    k   >   2018
-299,003    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -46    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -20    k   loss
Central Seas__   -8    k   loss
Other Seas___   -19    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -17    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -15    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Area LOSS 46 k, 39 k more than the 2010's average loss of 7 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will increase from +1.5 degrees to +4.5 over the next week or so.

Increased warmth in the Arctic may maintain increased area loss.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #407 on: March 20, 2019, 05:01:51 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 19th, 2019:
     13,996,972 km2, a drop of -8,966 km2.
     2019 is now 9th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #408 on: March 20, 2019, 06:14:42 PM »
Sorry chaps, late on parade.
Hospital check-up. No new bits have fallen off the corpus.

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,996,972 km2(March 19, 2019)

- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 9k, 13 k less than the average loss of 22k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 274k, 139 k (102%) greater than average of 136k,
- On average 1.4% of the melting season done, with 178 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.25 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +1.5 degrees to a wopping +5.8 over the next week or so. Something's gotta give way.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #409 on: March 20, 2019, 06:40:59 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,979,520 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,979,520    km2      
 46,801    km2   >   2010's average.
 232,963    k   >   2018
-358,377    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -55    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -28    k   loss
Central Seas__   -11    k   loss
Other Seas___   -17    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    12    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -14    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -21    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -13    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Area LOSS 55 k, 38 k more than the 2010's average loss of 17 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +1.5 degrees to a wopping +5.8 over the next week or so. Something's gotta give way. Increased warmth in the Arctic may accelerate area loss.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #410 on: March 20, 2019, 07:18:59 PM »
When the St Lawrence melts, it really does melt.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #411 on: March 20, 2019, 08:33:41 PM »
Of note is that despite recent persistent area gains, both the Bering and the Chukchi seas areas are still well below 2018, itself a year of extremely low ice area in those seas.

Maybe next week area will be in reverse.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #412 on: March 21, 2019, 04:51:47 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 20th, 2019:
     14,017,103 km2, an increase of 20,131 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #413 on: March 21, 2019, 08:07:54 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,017,103 km2(March 20, 2019)

- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent gain on this day 20k, 44 k less than the average loss of 24k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 254k, 93 k (54%) greater than average of 161k,
- On average 1.6% of the melting season done, with 177 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.3 million km2, 6th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +1.5 degrees to a wopping +6.6 over the next week or so. Something's gotta give way.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #414 on: March 21, 2019, 05:58:17 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,933,525 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,933,525    km2      
 17,975    km2   >   2010's average.
 240,618    k   >   2018
-398,730    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -46    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -27    k   loss
Central Seas__   -8    k   loss
Other Seas___   -11    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
Greenland____   -9    k   loss
Barents ______   -16    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -15    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area LOSS 46 k, 29 k more than the 2010's average loss of 17 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +1.5 degrees to a wopping +6.5 or more over the next week or so. Something's gotta give way. Increased warmth in the Arctic may accelerate area loss.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #415 on: March 22, 2019, 05:04:34 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 21st, 2019:
     14,056,522 km2, an increase of 39,419 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #416 on: March 22, 2019, 09:36:17 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,056,522 km2(March 21, 2019)

- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent gain on this day 39k, a variation of 54 k from the average loss of 15k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 215k, 39 k (22%) greater than average of 176k,
- On average 1.8% of the melting season done, with 176 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.35 million km2, 6th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +1.5 degrees to a  +6.5 over the next week or so. Something's gotta give way - but when and where ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #417 on: March 22, 2019, 01:36:35 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,897,794 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,897,794    km2      
-3,139    km2   <   2010's average.
 258,112    k   >   2018
-426,365    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -36    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -23    k   loss
Central Seas__   -13    k   loss
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    9    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -18    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area LOSS 36 k, 22 k more than the 2010's average loss of 14 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +1.5 degrees to a  +6.5 over the next week or so.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

etienne

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #418 on: March 22, 2019, 09:39:13 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 21st, 2019:
     14,056,522 km2, an increase of 39,419 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)

Just for fun, if you take today's data, the first in the row has a difference of -515,680. Now if you look at who has a difference of around +515,680 you come to the 16th position (+517,656).

If you look further and check which years are in these 16 positions, you get :
2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013 and 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 and 1996.
2012 is not in the list.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #419 on: March 23, 2019, 04:48:51 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 22st, 2019:
     14,001,236 km2, a drop of -55,286 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #420 on: March 23, 2019, 05:01:17 AM »
Just for fun, if you take today's data, the first in the row has a difference of -515,680. Now if you look at who has a difference of around +515,680 you come to the 16th position (+517,656).

If you look further and check which years are in these 16 positions, you get :
2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013 and 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 and 1996.
2012 is not in the list.
Yes, it is incredible the high values that 2012 had at this time of the year and the drop that it had later on.

In fact, on April 19th it had 13.99M km2 (2019 can have less tomorrow) and it drop to 3.18M km2 on Sept 15th, an average daily drop of 72.55K km2.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2019, 05:09:41 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #421 on: March 23, 2019, 06:34:22 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,001,236 km2(March 22, 2019)

- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 55k, a variation of 45 k from the average loss of 10k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 270k, 84 k (45%) greater than average of 186k,
- On average 1.9% of the melting season done, with 175 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.31 million km2, 6th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will increase from +1.5 degrees to +6 by next Tuesday, and then and then range between +6 and +7 over the next week or so. Something's gotta give way - but when and where ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #422 on: March 23, 2019, 04:10:07 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,876,895 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,876,895    km2      
-10,271    km2   <   2010's average.
 283,891    k   >   2018
-436,072    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -21    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -15    k   loss
Central Seas__   -6    k   loss
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    9    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -17    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Area LOSS 21 k, 5 k more than the 2010's average loss of 16 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will increase from +1.5 degrees to +6 by next Tuesday, and then and then range between +6 and +7 over the next week or so. Something's gotta give way - but when and where ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #423 on: March 24, 2019, 04:59:21 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 23rd, 2019:
     13,911,567 km2, a drop of -89,669 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #424 on: March 24, 2019, 08:13:26 AM »
Two or three further days losses of this size would push 2019 to #4 in that ranking list.
Let's see how Bering Sea will behave the next days. Its change will probably make the difference...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #425 on: March 24, 2019, 10:36:42 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,911,567 km2(March 23, 2019)

- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 90k, a large 71 k greater than the average loss of 19k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 360k, 155 k (76%) greater than average of 205k,
- On average 2.1% of the melting season done, with 174 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.24 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will increase from +2.5 degrees to +6 on Monday, and then range between +6.5 and +5.5 over the next week or so, with anomalies up to +30 celsius in parts of the Pacific half of the Arctic Basin.. Will this be a real sea ice melt headline event?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #426 on: March 24, 2019, 01:30:27 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,846,519 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,846,519    km2      
-35,578    km2   <   2010's average.
 276,068    k   >   2018
-446,552    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -30    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -9    k   loss
Central Seas__   -7    k   loss
Other Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -18    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -8    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Area LOSS 30 k, 25 k more than the 2010's average loss of 5 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will increase from +2.5 degrees to +6 on Monday, and then range between +6.5 and +5.5 over the next week or so, with anomalies up to +30 celsius in parts of the Pacific half of the Arctic Basin.. Will this be a real sea ice melt headline event?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #427 on: March 24, 2019, 04:09:11 PM »
By the pricking of my thumbs methinks that the Arctic over the next week or may be about to have a melting event. The first two images suggest why. (N.B. the Max image does not mean that on a particular day the Arctic temps will look like that. Rather it is the effect on various parts of the Arctic as warmth and cold move around over the 10 days from today).

So I thought I would past all the Arctic Seas area graphs as at yesterday as a benchmark.

Images 3 & 4 show that the melting is still stalled in the Pacific Gateway.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #428 on: March 24, 2019, 04:16:08 PM »
Canadian Seas (Hudson, Canadian Archipelago and Baffin) all meandering close to maximum
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #429 on: March 24, 2019, 04:24:08 PM »
Atlantic Front
Greenland & Barents maybe showing signs of consistent decline.
Kara and Laptev up and down close to max.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #430 on: March 24, 2019, 04:28:27 PM »
Central Arctic Seas (Beaufort, ESS, Central Arctic Sea) all dithering around max.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #431 on: March 24, 2019, 04:32:16 PM »
Seas unconnected to the Arctic
St Lawrence crashed and now having 2nd thoughts.
The Okhotsk is staying obstinately cold.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Eco-Author

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #432 on: March 24, 2019, 09:12:07 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,846,519 km2
Even 'Green arctic' events in May don't seem to yield headlines, yet the difference in temp, say between Northern Alaska and Miami often do.[/td][/tr][/table]
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

Hautbois

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #433 on: March 24, 2019, 10:49:00 PM »
(posting a bit sheepishly as I've not commented yet this year  ::))

Here's my customary max season chart showing this year's path relative to the maximum position of previous years.

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #434 on: March 25, 2019, 03:41:53 AM »
Thank you Hautbois. It's not the quantity, it's the quality.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #435 on: March 25, 2019, 04:50:36 AM »
(posting a bit sheepishly as I've not commented yet this year  ::))

Here's my customary max season chart showing this year's path relative to the maximum position of previous years.
We were missing you, Hautbois! And your excellent graph too!

Two or three further days losses of this size would push 2019 to #4 in that ranking list.
Let's see how Bering Sea will behave the next days. Its change will probably make the difference...
Near the target! And in just one day!

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 24th, 2019:
     13,839,873 km2, a drop of -71,694 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)

Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #436 on: March 25, 2019, 08:42:46 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,839,873 km2(March 24, 2019)

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 72k, a variation of 55 k from the average loss of 17k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 431k, 210 k (95%) greater than the average of 221k by this day,
- On average 2.2% of the melting season done, with 173 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.18 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +5 degrees to a  +7 over the next week or so, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic.
Very strong melt to be expected?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #437 on: March 25, 2019, 01:35:34 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,795,145 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,795,145    km2      
-83,884    km2   <   2010's average.
 227,876    k   >   2018
-476,174    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -51    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -17    k   loss
Central Seas__   -10    k   loss
Other Seas___   -24    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______   -19    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss
Area LOSS 51 k, 48 k more than the 2010's average loss of 3 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +5 degrees to a  +7 over the next week or so, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic Basin.. Will this be a real sea ice melt headline event? The high temp anomaly has only just begun - and the 5 day trailing average will delay showing the full effect on sea ice for a couple of days. Will this be a real sea ice melt headline event?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #438 on: March 26, 2019, 04:54:01 AM »
Two or three further days losses of this size would push 2019 to #4 in that ranking list.
Let's see how Bering Sea will behave the next days. Its change will probably make the difference...
Near the target! And in just one day!

Well, it happened!
Let’s say that yesterday I was wishing it to happen. If I have to convince some decision-making people that things are pretty bad, I prefer to have low values in March than low values in September.
But today, I am the one who is concerned of what may happen on 2019.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 25th, 2019:
     13,756,437 km2, a drop of -83,436 km2.
     2019 is now 4th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
« Last Edit: March 26, 2019, 05:29:12 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #439 on: March 26, 2019, 08:51:07 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,756,437 km2(March 25, 2019)

- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 83k, a variation of 91 k from the average gain of 8 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 515k, 302 k (142%) greater than the average of 213k by this day,
- On average 2.1% of the melting season done, with 172 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.09 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +6 degrees to +7 until the end of the month, then down later to +5, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic.
Very strong melt to be continued?
« Last Edit: March 26, 2019, 09:11:27 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #440 on: March 26, 2019, 01:49:05 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,713,030 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,713,030    km2      
-165,387    km2   <   2010's average.
 154,876    k   >   2018
-543,609    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -82    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -30    k   loss
Central Seas__   -17    k   loss
Other Seas___   -34    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______   -21    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -15    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -14    k   loss
Area LOSS 82 k, 81 k more than the 2010's average loss of 1 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +6 degrees to +7 until the end of the month, then down later to +5, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic. The high temp anomaly only began a day or two ago- and the 5 day trailing average already showing very high declines. Will this be a real sea ice melt headline event?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #441 on: March 27, 2019, 04:51:17 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 26th, 2019:
     13,729,380 km2, a drop of -27,057 km2.
     2019 is 4th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #442 on: March 27, 2019, 08:29:47 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,729,380 km2(March 26, 2019)

- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 27k, 24 k greater than the average loss of 4 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 542k, 325 k (150%) greater than the average of 217k loss by this day,
- On average 2.2% of the melting season done, with 171 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.07 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +6 degrees to +7.5 until the end of the month, then down later to +6, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic.
Very strong melt to be continued?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #443 on: March 27, 2019, 01:43:54 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,630,689 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,630,689    km2      
-253,913    km2   <   2010's average.
 73,899    k   >   2018
-610,739    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -82    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -38    k   loss
Central Seas__   -13    k   loss
Other Seas___   -32    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -14    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -14    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______   -14    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -19    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -10    k   loss
Area LOSS 82 k, a variation of 88 k from the 2010's average gain of 6 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +6 degrees to +7.5 until the end of the month, then down later to +6, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic.
The high temperature anomaly only began about 3 days ago- and the 5 day trailing average is now showing very high declines, and is now also showing in the 5 day trailing average extent data

Will this be a real sea ice melt headline event?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #444 on: March 28, 2019, 04:49:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 27th, 2019:
     13,734,954 km2, a small increase of 5,574 km2.
     2019 is 4th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #445 on: March 28, 2019, 08:38:54 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,734,954 km2(March 27, 2019)

- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent gain on this day 6k, varying by 10 k from the average loss of 4 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 536k, 316 k (143%) greater than the average of 220k loss by this day,
- On average 2.2% of the melting season done, with 170 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.07 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +6 degrees to +7.5 until the end of the month, then down later to +6, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic.
Very strong melt to be continued after the blip on this day?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #446 on: March 28, 2019, 01:30:51 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,559,528 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,559,528    km2      
-340,767    km2   <   2010's average.
-6,364    k   <   2018
-667,336    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -71    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -32    k   loss
Central Seas__   -16    k   loss
Other Seas___   -23    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -23    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -12    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -14    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Area LOSS 71 k, a variation of 88 k from the 2010's average gain of 17 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +6 degrees to +7.5 until the end of the month, then down later to +5.5, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic.
The high temperature anomaly began about 4 days ago- and the 5 day trailing average is now showing very high declines, and high declines are now also showing in the 5 day trailing average extent data

Will this be a real sea ice melt headline event? And for how long?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #447 on: March 29, 2019, 04:46:31 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 28th, 2019:
     13,702,099 km2, a drop of -32,855 km2.
     2019 is 4th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #448 on: March 29, 2019, 08:10:28 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,702,099 km2(March 28, 2019)

- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 33k, varying by 10 k from the average loss of 23 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 569k, 326 k (134%) greater than the average of 243k loss by this day,
- On average 2.5% of the melting season done, with 169 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.06 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +7 degrees to +7.5 until the end of the month, then gradually drift down in the following week to around +3.5, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #449 on: March 29, 2019, 11:35:04 AM »
I think now there's enough data to calculate the average maximum date. Using 15-day averages should take the weather effects out and 29-days should eliminate the possible effect of moon phases aka tides.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.