JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,988,350 km2(January 15, 2019)- Extent gain 83k, 38k more than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 68 k (0.8%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 86.3 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.26 million km2 (380k > 2018).
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
At the end of its 10 day forecast GFS shows signs of the effect of the predicted further SSW and polar vortex split.
(
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom )
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ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
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