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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #50 on: January 15, 2019, 05:29:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 14th, 2019:
     12,905,748 km2, a century increase of 101,818 km2:o  ;D
     2019 is now the 5th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Wherestheice

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #51 on: January 15, 2019, 05:47:29 AM »
This is one very back and forth freeze season. Lowest on record to 14th to 3rd to 8th and on and on and on
"When the ice goes..... F***

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #52 on: January 15, 2019, 06:02:16 AM »
This is one very back and forth freeze season. Lowest on record to 14th to 3rd to 8th and on and on and on

The Arctic is playing with our feelings  ;)
I just wish that it will not play too rough on August and September…
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Wherestheice

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #53 on: January 15, 2019, 06:07:57 AM »
This is one very back and forth freeze season. Lowest on record to 14th to 3rd to 8th and on and on and on

The Arctic is playing with our feelings  ;)
I just wish that it will not play too rough on August and September…
True that. 2019 is gonna be an interesting year. Perhaps one of the unforgettable ones
"When the ice goes..... F***

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #54 on: January 15, 2019, 09:32:53 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,905,748 km2(January 14, 2019)

- Extent gain 102k, 49k more than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 95 k (1.1%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 85.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.24 million km2 (360k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #55 on: January 15, 2019, 10:41:38 AM »
Gerontocrat, thank you for exposing the "power of the average". It strikes me how this winter the daily data is fluctuating wildly, yet the sum total returns to the decadal average again and again.
I guess the seasonal pattern in the Arctic depends on geography, bathymetry, currents and climate and far less on weather than would seem, and the difference between the decadal averages exposes the accumulated change.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #56 on: January 15, 2019, 02:20:22 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,885,247  km2

Total Area         
 11,885,247    km2      
 171,605    km2   >    2010's average.
 412,406    k   >   2018
-282,300    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    8    k   
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__   -11    k   loss
Other Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    13    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss
Area gain 8k, 25 k below the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #57 on: January 15, 2019, 05:56:23 PM »
Gerontocrat, thank you for exposing the "power of the average". It strikes me how this winter the daily data is fluctuating wildly, yet the sum total returns to the decadal average again and again.
I guess the seasonal pattern in the Arctic depends on geography, bathymetry, currents and climate and far less on weather than would seem, and the difference between the decadal averages exposes the accumulated change.

Isn't this the difference between climate and weather?

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #58 on: January 15, 2019, 06:33:28 PM »
Isn't this the difference between climate and weather?
There is a big difference between having and average of 0°C on autumn-winter and 20°C on spring-summer, or having -20°C on autumn-winter and 40°C on spring-summer. Of course, both give the average of 10°C on the four seasons.

So, if we have the new temperatures for 30 years, some could say that the climate (on average) is the same, even that the weather is not.

So the question is if the ASI is swinging more abruptly than in the past. From my point of view, it can be happening, but it doesn't matter. The point is that we are getting use to have low values the whole year and we see weakness on the ice that is remaining.

2019 can be the lowest or the 10th lowest on record. But for the first 15 14 days of January, the 2005-2019 are the 15 [years] lowest on record.

The Arctic has changed.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2019, 09:16:16 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #59 on: January 15, 2019, 10:00:25 PM »
Quote
So, if we have the new temperatures for 30 years, some could say that the climate (on average) is the same, even that the weather is not.

Per Tamino, in his January 2nd post on 'What is Climate? Really?',
climate is not ever "just the average."
Quote
Climate is the probability density function of weather.

The catchy way I like to say it is:

Climate is the odds. Weather is the roll of the dice.
And the odds in January are never the same as the odds in July.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

uniquorn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #60 on: January 16, 2019, 01:23:15 AM »
This animation is so messy that I wasn't going to post it, but I think it shows how volatile ice extent/area is over recent years, particularly when the peripheral seas are freezing.
amsr2-uhh, dec1-jan13 from 2015/16-2018/19

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #61 on: January 16, 2019, 05:01:03 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 15th, 2019:
     12,988,350 km2, an increase of 82,602 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #62 on: January 16, 2019, 01:26:50 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,988,350 km2(January 15, 2019)

- Extent gain 83k, 38k more than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 68 k (0.8%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 86.3 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.26 million km2 (380k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.

At the end of its 10 day forecast GFS shows signs of the effect of the predicted further SSW and polar vortex split.
( https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom )
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: January 16, 2019, 02:07:06 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #63 on: January 16, 2019, 02:06:28 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,902,753  km2

Total Area         
 11,902,753    km2      
 142,062    km2   >    2010's average.
 396,124    k   >   2018
-302,902    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    18    k   
Peripheral Seas    13    k   gain
Central Seas__   -16    k   loss
Other Seas___    20    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    6    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    22    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area gain 18k, 29 k below the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.

At the end of its 10 day forecast GFS shows signs of the effect of the predicted further SSW and polar vortex split.
( https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom )
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #64 on: January 17, 2019, 05:39:18 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 16th, 2019:
     13,047,756 km2, an increase of 59,406 km2.
     2019 is now the 6th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #65 on: January 18, 2019, 05:32:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 17th, 2019:
     13,077,904 km2, an increase of 30,148 km2.
     2019 is the 6th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #66 on: January 19, 2019, 05:12:22 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 18th, 2019:
     13,097,955 km2, an increase of 20,051 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #67 on: January 19, 2019, 11:03:01 AM »
Is it 'flu or just a stinking winter cold?
But I am dragging my tortured body to the computer.

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,097,955 km2(January 18, 2019)

- Extent gain 20k, 3k less than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 48 k (0.6%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 87.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.28 million km2 (400k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1.5 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #68 on: January 19, 2019, 11:09:58 AM »
Get well soon Gerontocrat!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #69 on: January 19, 2019, 03:16:45 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  12,066,835  km2

Total Area         
 12,066,835    km2      
 199,992    km2   >    2010's average.
 516,381    k   >   2018
-282,096    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    73    k   
Peripheral Seas    39    k   gain
Central Seas__    4    k   gain
Other Seas___    30    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    12    k   gain
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    18    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -9    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
         
Kara_________    11    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    15    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain
Area gain 73k, 40 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1.5 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #70 on: January 20, 2019, 05:09:22 AM »
Is it 'flu or just a stinking winter cold?
But I am dragging my tortured body to the computer.
Hi Gerontocrat.

Great to have you back! I hope that you get better really soon!
(not sure about the weather, though…)  ;) :D

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 19th, 2019:
     13,149,800 km2, an increase of 51,845 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #71 on: January 20, 2019, 01:45:57 PM »
Thanks, Juan. A stinking cold or a dose of 'flu is just an annual event that gives me an opportunity to moan and whine - "Woe is me, etc etc".

Weather - By the looks of it Little Old England is going to get a bit of the results of the SSW and PVS as the rest of the month unfolds. But nothing like Central and Eastern North America and Central Europe.

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,149,800 km2(January 19, 2019)

- Extent gain 52k, 5k less than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 43 k (0.5%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 87.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.29 million km2 (410k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #72 on: January 20, 2019, 02:24:26 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  12,131,260  km2

Total Area         
 12,131,260    km2      
 239,168    km2   >    2010's average.
 564,721    k   >   2018
-268,057    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    64    k   
Peripheral Seas    32    k   gain
Central Seas__    9    k   gain
Other Seas___    23    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    19    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
         
Kara_________    9    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    13    k   gain
Area gain 64k, 40 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #73 on: January 20, 2019, 04:44:03 PM »
Is it 'flu or just a stinking winter cold?
But I am dragging my tortured body to the computer.

should you like to reduce your energy footprint and relieve your tortured body i recommend to move south, at least that's what i did for that matter, leaving my most beloved home in prague to find a new one in "andalucia" at least as far as my physical presence is concerned, paper-wise i'm still chinese LOL


zufall

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #74 on: January 21, 2019, 09:39:44 AM »
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Jan 20 extent: 13,206,730 km², up 56,930 km². Still 7th lowest on record.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #75 on: January 21, 2019, 11:42:37 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,206,730 km2(January 20, 2019)

- Extent gain 57k, 35k greater than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 8 k (0.1%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 87.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 50 days to minimum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.32 million km2 (440k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #76 on: January 21, 2019, 02:07:32 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  12,192,165  km2

Total Area         
 12,192,165    km2      
 276,206    km2   >    2010's average.
 591,077    k   >   2018
-262,178    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    61    k   
Peripheral Seas    35    k   gain
Central Seas__    17    k   gain
Other Seas___    9    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    8    k   gain
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    17    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________    9    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Area gain 61k, 38 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #77 on: January 22, 2019, 04:56:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 21st, 2019:
     13,242,328 km2, an increase of 35,598 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #78 on: January 22, 2019, 11:36:50 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,242,328 km2(January 21, 2019)

- Extent gain 36k, 6k greater than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 2 k (0.0%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 88.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 49 days to minimum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.33 million km2 (450k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remaons close to zero degrees for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #79 on: January 22, 2019, 02:23:36 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,263,089  km2

Total Area         
 12,263,089    km2      
 320,586    km2   >    2010's average.
 614,831    k   >   2018
-241,748    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    71    k   
Peripheral Seas    42    k   gain
Central Seas__    22    k   gain
Other Seas___    7    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    8    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    13    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    16    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    7    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    7    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area gain 71k, 45 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #80 on: January 23, 2019, 05:06:11 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 22nd, 2019:
     13,256,828 km2, an increase of 14,500 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #81 on: January 23, 2019, 08:20:30 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,256,828 km2(January 22, 2019)

- Extent gain 15k, 22k LESS than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 24 k (0.3%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 88.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 48 days to minimum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.31 million km2 (430k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero and -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #82 on: January 23, 2019, 02:05:51 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,309,617  km2

Total Area         
 12,309,617    km2      
 340,721    km2   >    2010's average.
 625,983    k   >   2018
-226,485    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    47    k   
Peripheral Seas    26    k   gain
Central Seas__    19    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    8    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    6    k   gain
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______    13    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Area gain 47 k, 21 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero & -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

jdallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #83 on: January 24, 2019, 01:51:51 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 22nd, 2019:
     13,256,828 km2, an increase of 14,500 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.
Kind of hard to be more middle-of-the-pack than this. Variation in the top 15 is only about 4% either way around 2019...
« Last Edit: January 24, 2019, 02:47:08 AM by jdallen »
This space for Rent.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #84 on: January 24, 2019, 04:54:03 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 23rd, 2019:
     13,292,011 km2, an increase of 35,183 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #85 on: January 24, 2019, 06:46:38 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,292,011 km2(January 23, 2019)

- Extent gain 35k, 1k less than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 25 k (0.3%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 88.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 47 days to minimum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.31 million km2 (430k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero and -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #86 on: January 24, 2019, 03:22:08 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,343,724  km2

Total Area         
 12,343,724    km2      
 343,984    km2   >    2010's average.
 628,493    k   >   2018
-217,603    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    34    k   
Peripheral Seas    16    k   gain
Central Seas__    19    k   gain
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    4    k   gain
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Area gain 34 k, 3 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #87 on: January 25, 2019, 05:16:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 24th, 2019:
     13,332,401 km2, an increase of 40,390 km2.
     2019 is now the 6th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #88 on: January 25, 2019, 08:26:04 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,332,401 km2(January 24, 2019)

- Extent gain 40k, 2k less than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 27 k (0.3%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 89.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 46 days to minimum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.30 million km2 (410k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero  for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
[/quote]
« Last Edit: January 25, 2019, 08:51:34 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #89 on: January 25, 2019, 08:57:44 AM »
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero  for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.

The attached image shows an example of the great variation in temperature anomalies over various parts of the Arctic that seem to be a feature since mid January.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #90 on: January 25, 2019, 02:48:11 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,391,369  km2

Total Area         
 12,391,369    km2      
 360,943    km2   >    2010's average.
 634,376    k   >   2018
-190,482    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    48    k   
Peripheral Seas    19    k   gain
Central Seas__    23    k   gain
Other Seas___    6    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    9    k   gain
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______    12    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    10    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area gain 48 k, 17 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #91 on: January 26, 2019, 05:32:10 AM »
This is one very back and forth freeze season. Lowest on record to 14th to 3rd to 8th and on and on and on

The wild fluctuations are as much the result of wild ups and downs of previous years as it is this year's ice. All such fluctuations might be actual wild swings in sea ice or they might be statistical noise resulting from large sections of ice crossing back and forth across the 15% threshold.

Extent numbers and maps of sea ice are based on interpretations of data and are not understood to be absolute.
Feel The Burn!

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #92 on: January 26, 2019, 05:41:26 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,332,401 km2(January 24, 2019)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.30 million km2 (410k > 2018).


I suppose if one had voted that the high would be 14.125 to 14.375 they would be feeling pretty good! hehe
Feel The Burn!

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #93 on: January 26, 2019, 06:34:09 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 25th, 2019:
     13,346,587 km2, an increase of 14,186 km2.
     2019 is the 6th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Alexander555

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #94 on: January 26, 2019, 11:32:11 AM »
How is the Bering Sea doing compared to last year ?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #95 on: January 26, 2019, 12:29:00 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,346,587 km2(January 25, 2019)

- Extent gain 14k, 21k less than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 49 k (0.5%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 89.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 45 days to maximum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.28 million km2 (400k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero and -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2019, 02:49:07 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #96 on: January 26, 2019, 01:35:28 PM »
How is the Bering Sea doing compared to last year ?
Bering is on the high side compared to all recent years, though low compared to 2012 and 2013. All in all, seems normal. I wonder if it will go higher in Feb-March, or plateau at current level generating another low maximum. My bet is on going higher.
Shown is AMSR2 sea ice area, courtesy of Wipneus.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #97 on: January 26, 2019, 02:46:25 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,430,755  km2

Total Area         
 12,430,755    km2      
 376,033    km2   >    2010's average.
 634,896    k   >   2018
-166,937    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    39    k   
Peripheral Seas    19    k   gain
Central Seas__    18    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Area gain 39 k, 15 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero and -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #98 on: January 27, 2019, 06:06:39 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 26th, 2019:
     13,370,205 km2, an increase of 23,618 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #99 on: January 27, 2019, 06:14:56 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,370,205 km2(January 26, 2019)

- Extent gain 24k, 7k more than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 41 k (0.5%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 89.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 44 days to maximum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.29 million km2 (410k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero and -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)