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Wherestheice

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2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 01, 2019, 11:31:48 PM »
To a good year everyone. I feel an interesting melt season coming.

<Thanks for opening, I've edited the title, and here's the 2018 version of this thread; N.>
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 08:29:33 AM by Neven »
"When the ice goes..... F***

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2019, 12:33:10 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,287,194 km2(January 1, 2019)

JAXA data appeared a couple of hours ago.

- Extent gain 122k, 96k above average (last 10 years) for the day, the 4th day of very high gains.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 131 k (1.6%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 79.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.20 million km2 (320k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.07 million km2, (190k > 2017).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drop from +4.5 and to zero by next Monday and stay below zero for a few days after that. However, cold and warm pulses continue travelling up the Atlantic Front to north of Novaya Zemla.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2019, 03:11:51 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) = 11,113,007 km2

Total Area         
 11,113,007    km2      
-69,723    km2   <    2010's average.
 215,003    k   >   2017
-499,530    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    89    k   
Peripheral Seas    45    k   gain
Central Seas__    18    k   gain
Other Seas___    26    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    9    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    16    k   gain
Greenland____    10    k   gain
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
         
Kara_________    7    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    15    k   gain
Area gain of 89 k is below average by 28k on this day.
Area is:
- 215k greater than 2017,
- 70k less than the 2010's average,
- 500k less than the 2000's average.

Area gain switched from back to above average to low.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drop from +4.5 and to zero by next Monday and stay below zero for a few days after that. However, cold and warm pulses continue travelling up the Atlantic Front to north of Novaya Zemla.

Regional variations suggest that while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up part of the time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2019, 06:49:05 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 2nd, 2019:
     12,454,828 km2, an increase of 167,634 km2.
     2018  :P :) 2019 is now the 6th lowest on record.

« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 03:01:33 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

El Cid

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2019, 07:56:46 AM »
It's a new year Juan, buckle up! 2019 is the 6th lowest not 2018

:)

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2019, 08:36:28 AM »
Anyone care to comment on the massive 1-day increase in ice extent of 282,000 km2 according to NSIDC? Is it a glitch caused by cloud cover, a whole bunch of ice forming in regions where it was just below 15%, or wind induced movement towards Svalbaard?

Feel The Burn!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2019, 11:08:25 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,454,828 km2(January 2, 2019)

- Extent gain 168k, 133k above average (last 10 years) for the day, the 5th day of very high and extremely high gains.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is just 2 k (0%) above the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 80.3 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.33 million km2 (450k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.20 million km2, (320k > 2017).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drop from +4.5 and to zero by next Monday and stay below zero for a few days after that. However, cold and warm pulses continue travelling up the Atlantic Front to north of Novaya Zemla.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2019, 03:29:17 PM »
Anyone care to comment on the massive 1-day increase in ice extent of 282,000 km2 according to NSIDC? Is it a glitch caused by cloud cover, a whole bunch of ice forming in regions where it was just below 15%, or wind induced movement towards Svalbaard?
JAXA extent gain has been very high in the last 2 days. Bering and Atlantic Front cold at the moment. Also I believe NSIDC does something with the masks at the beginning of January which can give an upward blip.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2019, 04:12:10 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) = 11,224,863 km2

Total Area         
 11,224,863    km2      
-64,982    km2   <    2010's average.
 591,787    k   >   2018
-472,492    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    112    k   
Peripheral Seas    51    k   gain
Central Seas__    36    k   gain
Other Seas___    25    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    10    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    20    k   gain
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    12    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    6    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
         
Kara_________    17    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain
Area gain of 112 k is above average by 4k on this day. Mask change 1 Jan.
Area is:
- 227k greater than 2018,
- 65k less than the 2010's average,
- 472k less than the 2000's average.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drop from +4.5 and to zero by next Monday and stay below zero for a few days after that. However, cold and warm pulses continue travelling up the Atlantic Front to north of Novaya Zemla.

Regional variations suggest that while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may switch from rapid to slow freeze every few days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Phil.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2019, 05:35:41 PM »
Anyone care to comment on the massive 1-day increase in ice extent of 282,000 km2 according to NSIDC? Is it a glitch caused by cloud cover, a whole bunch of ice forming in regions where it was just below 15%, or wind induced movement towards Svalbaard?

I think you'll find that it's because at the beginning of the month and they've switched to the new mask.

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2019, 06:18:38 PM »
In general extent did increase sharply in the last few days around Svalbard, as can be seen in the AMSR2 regional chart of the CAB.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2019, 05:03:32 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 3rd, 2019:
     12,524,331 km2, an increase of 69,503 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2019, 09:01:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,524,331 km2(January 3, 2019)

The change of year is still giving my spreadsheets some grief. Misplaced confidence or what.

- Extent gain 70k, 20k above average (last 10 years) for the day, a moderation from the 5 previous days of very high and extremely high gains.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is just 21 k (0.3%) above the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 80.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.35 million km2 (470k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.21 million km2, (330k > 2017).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drops from +3.5 to zero by next Monday and perhaps to -3.0 degrees by the 13th. However, cold and warm pulses continue travelling up the Atlantic Front to north of Novaya Zemla.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #13 on: January 04, 2019, 02:11:34 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,343,002 km2

Total Area         
 11,343,002    km2      
 16,234    km2   >    2010's average.
 273,728    k   >   2018
-399,693    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    118    k   
Peripheral Seas    48    k   gain
Central Seas__    44    k   gain
Other Seas___    26    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    19    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
         
Kara_________    21    k   gain
Laptev_______    8    k   gain
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    13    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain
Area gain of 118 k is above average by 80k on this day. Mask change 1 Jan ripples.
Area is:
- 274k greater than 2018,
- 16k greater than the 2010's average,
- 400k less than the 2000's average.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drops from +3.5 to zero by next Monday and perhaps to -3.0 degrees by the 13th. However, cold and warm pulses continue travelling up the Atlantic Front to north of Novaya Zemla.

Regional variations suggest that while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may switch from rapid to slow freeze every few days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2019, 04:57:04 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 4th, 2019:
     12,590,152 km2, an increase of 65,821 km2.
     2019 is now the 8th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jdallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2019, 05:04:41 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 4th, 2019:
     12,590,152 km2, an increase of 65,821 km2.
     2019 is now the 8th lowest on record.
If this had happened 5 days ago, my guess would have been correct.  Just goes to show how volatile things are now.
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Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2019, 05:33:15 AM »
Well, having all years extents of the series, except one or two, within 500k doesn’t call for a prediction but for a bet.
I guess it is one of these moments extent is more defined by land boundaries than for anything else. This year Bering is not as anomalous and the Atlantic side had a sudden rebound, so voila. Almost as in the 90s. Edit: wrong curve, I meant 2000s, which difference after all, is not so big with this decade at this time of the year. But looking at Gerontocrat's plot, 2019 is closer to average 2010s currently than anything else.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 12:08:29 PM by Sterks »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #17 on: January 05, 2019, 11:08:43 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,590,152 km2(January 4, 2019)

- Extent gain 66k, 27k above average (last 10 years) for the day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 48 k (0.6%) above the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 81.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.38 million km2 (500k > 2018).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.24 million km2, (360k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drops from +3.5 to zero by next Monday and perhaps to -3.5 degrees by the 15th.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

dnem

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2019, 03:07:51 PM »
If this had happened 5 days ago, my guess would have been correct.  Just goes to show how volatile things are now.

I think many of us have a sense that the arctic see ice metrics have become more volatile. I'd love to see Tamino have a go at analyzing the variability of the various metrics.  I thought he had a link at Open Mind where you could request an analysis but I don't see it any more.  Anyone know how to ask him if he'd like to take a whack at the question "Have sea ice extent, area and/or volume measures become more variable over time?" There are so many metrics and so many time scales that it is hard to know how to attack this question.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #19 on: January 05, 2019, 03:35:48 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,471,485 km2

Total Area         
 11,471,485    km2      
 135,677    km2   >    2010's average.
 317,871    k   >   2018
-313,384    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    129    k   
Peripheral Seas    46    k   gain
Central Seas__    52    k   gain
Other Seas___    31    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    10    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    21    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________    25    k   gain
Laptev_______    8    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    16    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain
Area gain of 129 k is above average by 91k on this day. That's a lot
Area is:
- 318k greater than 2018,
- 136k greater than the 2010's average,
- 313k less than the 2000's average.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drops from +3.5 to zero by next Monday and perhaps to -3.5 degrees by the 15th. That is cold.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #20 on: January 06, 2019, 04:49:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 5th, 2019:
     12,625,578 km2, an increase of 35,426 km2.
     2019 is the 8th lowest on record.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2019, 05:16:07 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Adam Ash

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #21 on: January 06, 2019, 06:10:22 AM »
Nice data thanks. 

The annual variability seems to be consistent with previous decades - all over the place.

Looking at the decade data shows the 'big picture' trend, with decade on decade loss increasing somewhat.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #22 on: January 06, 2019, 09:54:17 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,625,578 km2(January 5, 2019)

- Extent gain 35k, 9k below average (last 10 years) for the day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 41 k (0.5%) above the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 81.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.37 million km2 (490k > 2018).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.24 million km2, (360k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drops from +2 to zero by next Monday and perhaps averaging around -2 degrees to the 15th.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #23 on: January 06, 2019, 02:43:47 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,590,404 km2

Total Area         
 11,590,404    km2      
 213,893    km2   >    2010's average.
 351,651    k   >   2018
-232,824    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    119    k   
Peripheral Seas    45    k   gain
Central Seas__    45    k   gain
Other Seas___    29    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    17    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
         
Kara_________    23    k   gain
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    10    k   gain
Area gain of 119 k is above average by 78k on this day. That's a lot
Area is:
- 352k greater than 2018,
- 214k greater than the 2010's average,
- 233k less than the 2000's average.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drops from +2 to zero by next Monday and perhaps averaging around -2 degrees to the 15th. . That is cold.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #24 on: January 07, 2019, 04:58:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 6th, 2019:
     12,660,872 km2, an increase of 35,294 km2.
     2019 is the 8th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #25 on: January 07, 2019, 10:25:25 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,660,872 km2(January 6, 2019)

- Extent gain 35k, 11k below average (last 10 years) for the day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 29 k (0.4%) above the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 82 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.36 million km2 (480k > 2018).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.25 million km2, (370k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drop to zero today and then stays at around 0 to -1.5 degrees for the forecast period.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #26 on: January 08, 2019, 04:56:47 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 7th, 2019:
     12,711,284 km2, an increase of 50,412 km2.
     2019 is the 8th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #27 on: January 08, 2019, 05:01:19 AM »
Extent is 13,238 on NSIDC on 1-6-19, a daily increase of 140,000 km2, now surpassing 2011 and 2013-2018 for the same day.

Interesting that arctic ice in the last month extended significantly in both directions. Should be an interesting melt season, that's for sure.
Feel The Burn!

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #28 on: January 09, 2019, 04:51:37 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 8th, 2019:
     12,714,611 km2, an increase of only 3,327 km2.
     2019 is still the 8th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #29 on: January 10, 2019, 05:01:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 9th, 2019:
     12,784,965 km2, an increase of 70,354 km2.
     2019 is the 8th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #30 on: January 10, 2019, 05:34:48 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,784,965 km2(January 9, 2019)

Not a lot of change while I was off-line.

- Extent gain 70k, 22k above average (last 10 years) for the day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 39 k (0.5%) above the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 83.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

I was adding an extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorted the average. However, this late in the season the difference in the outcome is reduced to a mere 60k,  so is now ignored. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.37 million km2 (480k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. The Bering Strait looks like it will have some strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #31 on: January 10, 2019, 04:57:44 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,797,992 km2

Total Area         
 11,797,992    km2      
 255,937    km2   >    2010's average.
 413,264    k   >   2018
-182,539    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    36    k   
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__    21    k   gain
Other Seas___    9    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    15    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    11    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Although area gain has dropped from 118k to 36k over the last 5 days, it is still a little bit above average.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. The Bering Strait looks like it will have some strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time. This could continue the stall in Bering Sea extent and area gain.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #32 on: January 11, 2019, 04:59:30 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 10th, 2019:
     12,843,848 km2, an increase of 58,883 km2.
     2019 is now the 9th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #33 on: January 11, 2019, 08:25:41 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,843,848 km2(January 10, 2019)

- Extent gain 59k, 3k above average (last 10 years) for the day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 42 k (0.5%) above the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 83.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.37 million km2 (490k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. The Bering Strait looks like it will have some strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #34 on: January 11, 2019, 02:40:32 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,825,563 km2

Total Area         
 11,825,563    km2      
 254,313    km2   >    2010's average.
 441,557    k   >   2018
-195,202    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    28    k   
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas__    18    k   gain
Other Seas___    5    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________    19    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Area gain has dropped from 118k to 28k over the last 6 days, 7 k below average.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. The Bering Strait looks like it will have some strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time. This could continue the stall in Bering Sea extent and area gain.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #35 on: January 12, 2019, 05:23:36 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 11th, 2019:
     12,822,723 km2, a drop of -21,125 km2:o
     2019 is now the 6th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #36 on: January 12, 2019, 09:40:25 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,822,723 km2(January 11, 2019)

What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours
- Extent loss 21k, 91k less than average gain of 70 k (last 10 years) on this day.
- Extent is 9th 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 43 k (0.5%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 84.4 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.29 million km2 (410k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: January 12, 2019, 09:47:57 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #37 on: January 12, 2019, 02:33:35 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,843,950 km2

Total Area         
 11,843,950    km2      
 245,958    km2   >    2010's average.
 465,799    k   >   2018
-212,630    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    18    k   
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas__    17    k   gain
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________    21    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Area gain has dropped from 118k to 18k over the last 7 days, 9 k below average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #38 on: January 13, 2019, 04:45:54 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 12th, 2019:
     12,766,506 km2, a drop of -56,217 km2:o
     2019 is now the 4th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

miki

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #39 on: January 13, 2019, 06:51:10 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 12th, 2019:
     12,766,506 km2, a drop of -56,217 km2:o
     2019 is now the 4th lowest on record.

What the heck...

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #40 on: January 13, 2019, 06:54:39 AM »
There was mention of a cyclone in the Greenland Sea. Probably related?

Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #41 on: January 13, 2019, 07:45:57 AM »
Whoops. This might be the time to start to wait for a wintertime drop of a century-K, dec-jan-feb-½mar.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #42 on: January 13, 2019, 07:48:58 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,766,506 km2(January 12, 2019)

What a difference 2 days make, 48 little hours
- Extent loss 21k 56k, 91k 105k less than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 9th 6th    4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 149 k (1.8%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 84.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.18 million km2 (300k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

psymmo7

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #43 on: January 13, 2019, 10:30:28 AM »
Hi Gerontocrat,
many, many thanks for your great charts and graphs. I couldn't live without them.
Just a question about a tweak to make one  even more perfect  - in the chart entitled "JAXA - Arctic Sea Ice March Maximum - in km2 million" shouldn't the header of the 4th column read "Resulting 2019 Maximum"?

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #44 on: January 13, 2019, 04:03:08 PM »
Have not been commenting lately but visit this site every day. Freeze seasons can be fun!  :o

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #45 on: January 13, 2019, 04:15:59 PM »
Hi Gerontocrat,
many, many thanks for your great charts and graphs. I couldn't live without them.
Just a question about a tweak to make one  even more perfect  - in the chart entitled "JAXA - Arctic Sea Ice March Maximum - in km2 million" shouldn't the header of the 4th column read "Resulting 2019 Maximum"?
Yes it should. Thanks.

I do need people to point these little glitches out. Once upon a time I had one relatively simple spreadsheet - JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent, with just 4 sheets and two graphs. I now realise like topsy it has grown to well over 25 spreadsheets with something like 200 sheets and 100 graphs.

Just getting the change of year sorted is an utter pain.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #46 on: January 13, 2019, 05:04:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,860,854 km2

Total Area         
 11,860,854    km2      
 229,478    km2   >    2010's average.
 473,845    k   >   2018
-233,106    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    17    k   
Peripheral Seas    10    k   gain
Central Seas__    3    k   gain
Other Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    9    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area gain 17k, 16 k below average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #47 on: January 14, 2019, 07:00:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 13th, 2019:
     12,803,930 km2, an increase of 37,424 km2.
     2019 is the 4th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #48 on: January 14, 2019, 11:10:33 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,803,930 km2(January 13, 2019)

- Extent gain 37k, 3k more than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 147 k (1.8%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 85.3 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.18 million km2 (300k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #49 on: January 14, 2019, 02:10:34 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,877,339  km2

Total Area         
 11,877,339    km2      
 208,654    km2   >    2010's average.
 459,064    k   >   2018
-251,851    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    16    k   
Peripheral Seas    13    k   gain
Central Seas__   -1    k   loss
Other Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    8    k   gain
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________    6    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss

Area gain 16k, 20 k below average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)