2019 sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 12 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,531,131 km2

Total Area           12,531,131    km2        117,255    km2   >    2010's average.  551,247    k   >   2018 -538,003    k   <    2000's average.           Total gain/loss    13    k   gain Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain Central Seas__    1    k   gain Other Seas___    6    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -5    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss Greenland____    8    k   gain Barents ______    5    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_    12    k   gain           Kara_________    2    k   gain Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Chukchi______   -2    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    12    k   gain St Lawrence___   -7    k   loss Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Area GAIN 13 k, 2k more than the 2010's average gain of 11k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  Looking at the tables shows how cold and warmth is moving around the Arctic.

[gerontocrat]

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.

[interstitial]

Is that chart accurate? Did the Beufort sea have that much less ice in the 1980s than the following decades?

[oren]

Is that chart accurate? Did the Beufort sea have that much less ice in the 1980s than the following decades?

Yes, the chart is accurate, though it does seem counter-intuitive. Note that this is an area chart - extent was at maximum throughout the period.
I would expect the explanation to lie with the Beaufort gyre, causing fractures and leads, though without the actual satellite images this is just a wild guess.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 13^th, 2019:
     13,860,508 km², a century increase of 104,786 km². 
     2019 is still the 7^th lowest on record.
PS: 140K to reach the 14M km² (and one month of possible increases).

[binntho]

Still a century below the last minimax (2016) ... but continuing northerly winds on the Atlantic front make a new one exceedingly unlikely. Oh well.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,860,508 km2（February 13, 2019）

- Extent gain 105k, 64k more than the average gain of 41k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 15 k (0.2%) greater than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 94.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 26 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.35 million km2 (470k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.32 million km2, (440k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.

[Phil42]

For anyone who is like me and thought this increase is very weird.

I checked some numbers and while a century increase this late is unusual it is not all unprecedented. Since JAXA records began in 1979, there have been a total of 10 century increases in the freezing season after 13^th February (ordered by date):

13^th February 2019: +104'786 km² (yesterday)
14^th February 2017: +110'137 km²
15^th February 2017: +127'281 km²
15^th February 2005: +114'256 km²
19^th February 2014: +111'171 km²
20^th February 2014: +110'795 km²
24^th February 2013: +117'014 km²
24^th February 2016: +149'990 km²
1^st March 2012: +186'143 km² (biggest increase)
12^th March 2014: +115'282 km² (latest century increase)

Worthy to mention here is that those late century increases are a phenomenon that really only started to occur regularly in the last 10 years.

[Juan C. García]

Still a century below the last minimax (2016) ... but continuing northerly winds on the Atlantic front make a new one exceedingly unlikely. Oh well.

The minimum max is 13,878,287 established in 2017, so 2019 is only 17,779 km² below the minimum max.

[binntho]

Still a century below the last minimax (2016) ... but continuing northerly winds on the Atlantic front make a new one exceedingly unlikely. Oh well.

The minimum max is 13,878,287 established in 2017, so 2019 is only 17,779 km² below the minimum max.

My bad ... but there is still the very slimmest of changes for a new minimax ...

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Table of Minimum Max (Feb 13^th, 2019):

[Juan C. García]

My bad ... but there is still the very slimmest of changes for a new minimax ...

I am still on the 14-14.25 M km² range.

[be cause]

No doubt Gerontocrat will soon confirm that much of today's 100,000+ increase is in Barents . The area will be cold for days to come . I would not be suprised to see another 100k day .. perhaps more than one .. and that Barents will recover to something like the 'old days' and we have a late and unexpectedly high max this year . b.c.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 13 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,559,771 km2

Total Area        12,559,771    km2     123,493    km2   >  548,477    k   > -536,430    k   <        Total gain/loss    29    k Peripheral Seas    9    k Central Seas__    9    k Other Seas___    10    k        Peripheral Seas       Bering _______    5    k Baffin  Bay____   -6    k Greenland____    6    k Barents ______    4    k        CAB Seas       Beaufort_____    3    k CAA_________   -0    k East Siberian__   -3    k Central Arctic_    8    k        Kara_________    3    k Laptev_______   -1    k Chukchi______    1    k        Other Seas       Okhotsk______    14    k St Lawrence___   -5    k Hudson Bay___    1    k

Area GAIN 29 k, 7k more than the 2010's average gain of 22k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin Bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

The data is the NSIDC 5 day trailing average, so the large daily extent gain will take time to show in the tables. Nevertheless, the data is already showing the effect of the recent change in the location of the temperature differences across the Arctic.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 14^th, 2019:
     13,953,863 km², almost a century increase of 93,355 km².
     2019 is now the 9^th lowest on record.
PS: 46K to reach the 14M km² (and one month of possible increases).
      No new minimum max on 2019!
      Seems that 2019 is following 2007 & 2012  (Hope not!  ) On Feb 14^th they are
      around 14M km².

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,953,863 km2（February 14, 2019）

- Extent gain 93k, 53k more than the average gain of 50k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 58 k (062%) greater than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 94.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 25 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.39 million km2 (510k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.36 million km2, (480k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and 0 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 14 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,612,962 km2

Total Area           12,612,962    km2        153,153    km2   >    2010's average.  589,560    k   >   2018 -498,027    k   <    2000's average.           Total gain/loss    53    k   gain Peripheral Seas    23    k   gain Central Seas__    12    k   gain Other Seas___    18    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    14    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______    5    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    6    k   gain CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_    5    k   gain           Kara_________    1    k   gain Laptev_______    0    k   gain Chukchi______    3    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    11    k   gain St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain

Area GAIN 53 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average gain of 29k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and 0 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 15^th, 2019:
     13,945,503 km², a small drop of -8,360 km².
     2019 is 9^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,945,503 km2（February 15, 2019）

- Extent loss 8k, 52k less than the average gain of 44k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 6 k (0.1%) greater than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 24 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.34 million km2 (460k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.30 million km2, (420k >2017).

Note how the cool conditions on the Atlantic Front and the high gains in the previous 2 days let this writer guess at continuing high gains. And what happens? - extent loss. There are times when one is drawn back to James Lovelock's original concept of earth as GAIA - a sentient being, able to mock us even as she is abused by us. Anthropomorthism?

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +0 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times. See next post

[gerontocrat]

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +0 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times, as sown in the GFS image for Sunday 17th.

[Wherestheice]

Note how the cool conditions on the Atlantic Front and the high gains in the previous 2 days let this writer guess at continuing high gains. And what happens? - extent loss. There are times when one is drawn back to James Lovelock's original concept of earth as GAIA - a sentient being, able to mock us even as she is abused by us. Anthropomorthism?

Interesting you note that. Because nature is so fricken hard to predict

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 15 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,658,476  km2

Total Area           12,658,476    km2        164,176    km2   >    2010's average.  610,283    k   >   2018 -461,506    k   <    2000's average.           Total gain/loss    46    k   gain Peripheral Seas    20    k   gain Central Seas__    13    k   gain Other Seas___    12    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    11    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss Greenland____    4    k   gain Barents ______    5    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    5    k   gain CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_    4    k   gain           Kara_________   -1    k   loss Laptev_______    0    k   gain Chukchi______    6    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    5    k   gain St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain

Area GAIN 46 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average gain of 34k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +0 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times, as shown in the GFS image for Sunday 17th posted above.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 16^th, 2019:
     13,919,453 km², a drop of -26,050 km².
     2019 is now 8^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,945,503 km2（February 15, 2019）

- Extent loss 26k, 54k less than the average gain of 28k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 48 k (0.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 23 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.28 million km2 (400k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.26 million km2, (380k >2017).

Note how the cool conditions on the Atlantic Front and the high gains in the previous 2 days let this writer guess at continuing high gains. And what happens? - extent losses. There are times when one is drawn back to James Lovelock's original concept of earth as GAIA - a sentient being, able to mock us even as she is abused by us. Anthropomorthism?

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +2 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 16 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,704,061  km2

Total Area           12,704,061    km2        167,091    km2   >    2010's average.  628,517    k   >   2018 -428,691    k   <    2000's average.           Total gain/loss    46    k   gain Peripheral Seas    21    k   gain Central Seas__    12    k   gain Other Seas___    13    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    12    k   gain Greenland____    3    k   gain Barents ______    6    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    5    k   gain CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__    0    k   gain Central Arctic_    6    k   gain           Kara_________   -3    k   loss Laptev_______    1    k   gain Chukchi______    2    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    4    k   gain St Lawrence___    6    k   gain Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain

Area GAIN 46 k, 3 k more than the 2010's average gain of 43k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +2 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 17^th, 2019:
     13,926,911 km², an increase of 7,458 km².
     2019 is 8^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2（February 17, 2019）

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 41 k (0.4%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 22 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.29 million km2 (410k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives the same maximum.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times. - see next post.

[gerontocrat]

As I said in the post above, GFS indicates that  the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay is tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times. The image attached gives an indication of the possibility of the degree of that extreme.

[binntho]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2（February 17, 2019）

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.

Isn't the average gain closer to 20k on this day, at least judging from the graph?

[Sterks]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2（February 17, 2019）

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.

Isn't the average gain closer to 20k on this day, at least judging from the graph?

That's the only misleading part of Gerontocrat great reports. He's comparing to the still 'wobbly' 10-year average instead of using the filtered trend.
I would say filtering is not fake science, so look at his nice plot, do the math in your head, and ignore that sentence on a daily basis

[oren]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2（February 17, 2019）

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.

Isn't the average gain closer to 20k on this day, at least judging from the graph?

That's the only misleading part of Gerontocrat great reports. He's comparing to the still 'wobbly' 10-year average instead of using the filtered trend.
I would say filtering is not fake science, so look at his nice plot, do the math in your head, and ignore that sentence on a daily basis

It's not misleading and is actually useful, because the real 10 year average is what decides if 2019 will go up or down in the rankings table in a given day. But the filtered average is also interesting as it says if the gain/loss is above or below real expectations for the date.

[binntho]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2（February 17, 2019）

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.

Isn't the average gain closer to 20k on this day, at least judging from the graph?

That's the only misleading part of Gerontocrat great reports. He's comparing to the still 'wobbly' 10-year average instead of using the filtered trend.
I would say filtering is not fake science, so look at his nice plot, do the math in your head, and ignore that sentence on a daily basis

It's not misleading and is actually useful, because the real 10 year average is what decides if 2019 will go up or down in the rankings table in a given day. But the filtered average is also interesting as it says if the gain/loss is above or below real expectations for the date.

I'm still not following - in the "Daily extent gain/loss" graph, the blue line "average daily change" is very close to 20k for this day - it doesn't say what years are covered in the "average" but the sentence "average gain of 1k on this day" does not match up to anything.

The other graph showing sea ice extent has the 2010's average at a significant smidgeon below current extent, or to be exact, some 65k below today's extent as can be read directly from the table.

So I think Gerantocrat has made a mistake, today's gain of 7k is probably some 13k lower than average daily gain for this day (as is made clear from the graph, with the red line ending at least 10k below the blue line.

[binntho]

So I think Gerantocrat has made a mistake, today's gain of 7k is probably some 13k lower than average daily gain for this day (as is made clear from the graph, with the red line ending at least 10k below the blue line.

Having just been reading about selective blindness I'm not all that surprised to notice (after several good looks) that there are two blue lines - a smooth "Av. daily change" and a very jumpy "Polynomial (av. daily change)". And the red line does end up at a possible 1k above the second, polynomial, line - whatever  that means.

[gerontocrat]

So I think Gerantocrat has made a mistake, today's gain of 7k is probably some 13k lower than average daily gain for this day (as is made clear from the graph, with the red line ending at least 10k below the blue line.

Having just been reading about selective blindness I'm not all that surprised to notice (after several good looks) that there are two blue lines - a smooth "Av. daily change" and a very jumpy "Polynomial (av. daily change)". And the red line does end up at a possible 1k above the second, polynomial, line - whatever  that means.

Me? Make a mistake? I can feel a Trump response coming on. Damn. I do not Tweet.
Instead, I have adjusted the graph layout a bit (not the data). See attached.

Read this very carefully, I will write it only once
The wobbly blue line is for each day the average of the last 10 years. And yes, it is very wobbly or wavy. Hence the x2 polynomial smoothing line, was blue, now dark violet to show the direction of travel.

(We had a discussion last year sometime about whether there was any chance of linking waves of above and below average extent gains and losses to movements of wind, waves, currents, warmth and cold around the Arctic - without any conclusion.)

So on the 17th February, the average of the previous 10 years was a gain of just 885 km2. That is the reality of the JAXA data.
The smoothed line is an artefact, i.e. does not actually exist.
___________________________________________________________
artefact - definition

something observed in a scientific investigation or experiment that is not naturally present but occurs as a result of the preparative or investigative procedure.
"the curvature of the surface is an artefact of the wide-angle view"
____________________________________________________________

[binntho]

'Allo 'Allo - zis is now to understand much easier.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 17 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,745,155 km2

Total Area           12,745,155    km2        163,891    km2   >    2010's average.  635,325    k   >   2018 -404,842    k   <    2000's average.           Total gain/loss    41    k   gain Peripheral Seas    24    k   gain Central Seas__    9    k   gain Other Seas___    8    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -3    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain Greenland____    2    k   gain Barents ______    13    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    3    k   gain CAA_________   -0    k   loss East Siberian__    1    k   gain Central Arctic_    6    k   gain           Kara_________   -1    k   loss Laptev_______    2    k   gain Chukchi______   -2    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    5    k   gain St Lawrence___    4    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Area GAIN 41 k, 3 k less than the 2010's average gain of 44k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area. Bering starting to lose area again.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 18^th, 2019:
     13,962,528 km², an increase of 35,617 km².
     2019 is now 9^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,962,528 km2（February 18, 2019）

- Extent gain 36k, 33k more than the average gain of 3k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 9 k (0.1%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 21 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.33 million km2 (450k >2017's record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days, and then up to a perhaps unbelievable +5  or more, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times. See next post

[gerontocrat]

The attached image shows an extreme contrast in the temperature anomalies of the Atlantic front and the Pacific side.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 18 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,769,364 km2

Total Area           12,769,364    km2        148,839    km2   >    2010's average.  629,788    k   >   2018 -404,271    k   <    2000's average.           Total gain/loss    24    k   gain Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain Central Seas__    12    k   gain Other Seas___   -2    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -8    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain Greenland____    2    k   gain Barents ______    17    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic_    7    k   gain           Kara_________    2    k   gain Laptev_______    3    k   gain Chukchi______   -3    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Area GAIN 24 k, 15 k less than the 2010's average gain of 39k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days, and then up to a perhaps unbelievable +5  or more, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area. Bering and the Chukchi continuing to lose area.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 19^th, 2019:
     14,012,202 km², an increase of 49,674 km².
     2019 is 9^th lowest on record.
     New max for 2019. And now above the 14M km² mark.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,012,202 km2（February 19, 2019）

- Extent gain 50k, 37k more than the average gain of 13k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 28 k (0.1%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 20 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.36 million km2 (480k >2017's record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days, and then up to a perhaps unbelievable +5  or more, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

[echoughton]

AND>>>>We're above 14 million. Not a bad year for ASI!!!
(I realize it could be a ripe frozen cherry)

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 19 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,789,901  km2

Total Area           12,789,901    km2        138,928    km2   >    2010's average.  623,766    k   >   2018 -409,362    k   <    2000's average.           Total gain/loss    21    k   gain Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain Central Seas__    11    k   gain Other Seas___    2    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -9    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss Greenland____    2    k   gain Barents ______    17    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic_    6    k   gain           Kara_________    1    k   gain Laptev_______    2    k   gain Chukchi______   -1    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    5    k   gain St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area GAIN 21 k, 9 k less than the 2010's average gain of 30k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days, and then up to a perhaps unbelievable +5  or more, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area. Bering and the Chukchi continuing to lose area.

[Rodius]

Is it just my imagination, but it seems like the maximum used to be earlier in the year than it is now..... I am talking decade averages here.

To me, just eyeballing the graph, it looks like the 80s peaked around 3rd March.
90s peaked at about 10th March.
00s peaked about 10th March
10s then goes to 17th March and, maybe at a stretch, end of March.

If this is correct.... does anyone know why the end of the freeze is taking longer each decade?

[Feeltheburn]

Feb 20:           14,085,455
Increase of            73,253
9th lowest on record
Might soon surpass 2012 to move into 10th place

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,085,455 km2（February 20, 2019）

- Extent gain 73k, 69k more than the average gain of 4k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 97 k (1.0%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 19 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.43 million km2 (550k >2017's record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +4 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

[Altai]

Thats because the periphery of the Arctic ocean is not ice-covered anymore and the edge of ice is now in the area where the solar radiation in March is very poor and the ice is still expading till the mid-March. In the 1980-s the edge was much further to the south and was already affected by solar radiation in the beginning of March.

Is it just my imagination, but it seems like the maximum used to be earlier in the year than it is now..... I am talking decade averages here.

To me, just eyeballing the graph, it looks like the 80s peaked around 3rd March.
90s peaked at about 10th March.
00s peaked about 10th March
10s then goes to 17th March and, maybe at a stretch, end of March.

If this is correct.... does anyone know why the end of the freeze is taking longer each decade?

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 20 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,823,767  km2

Total Area           12,823,767    km2        148,901    km2   >   2010's average.  633,134    k   >   2018 -397,912    k   <   2000's average.           Total gain/loss    34    k   gain Peripheral Seas    18    k   gain Central Seas__    5    k   gain Other Seas___    10    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -4    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain Greenland____    1    k   gain Barents ______    20    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic_    3    k   gain           Kara_________    0    k   gain Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Chukchi______    0    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    12    k   gain St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss

Area GAIN 34 k, 10 k more than the 2010's average gain of 24k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +4 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area. Bering Sea continuing to lose area though at a slower rate.

[Klondike Kat]

Thats because the periphery of the Arctic ocean is not ice-covered anymore and the edge of ice is now in the area where the solar radiation in March is very poor and the ice is still expading till the mid-March. In the 1980-s the edge was much further to the south and was already affected by solar radiation in the beginning of March.

That makes so much sense.  Thanks.