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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #200 on: February 13, 2019, 02:02:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,531,131 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,531,131    km2      
 117,255    km2   >    2010's average.
 551,247    k   >   2018
-538,003    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    13    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__    1    k   gain
Other Seas___    6    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____    8    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Area GAIN 13 k, 2k more than the 2010's average gain of 11k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  Looking at the tables shows how cold and warmth is moving around the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #201 on: February 13, 2019, 02:10:36 PM »
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

interstitial

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #202 on: February 14, 2019, 02:48:37 AM »
Is that chart accurate? Did the Beufort sea have that much less ice in the 1980s than the following decades?

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #203 on: February 14, 2019, 04:24:42 AM »
Is that chart accurate? Did the Beufort sea have that much less ice in the 1980s than the following decades?
Yes, the chart is accurate, though it does seem counter-intuitive. Note that this is an area chart - extent was at maximum throughout the period.
I would expect the explanation to lie with the Beaufort gyre, causing fractures and leads, though without the actual satellite images this is just a wild guess.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #204 on: February 14, 2019, 04:55:10 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 13th, 2019:
     13,860,508 km2, a century increase of 104,786 km2::)
     2019 is still the 7th lowest on record.
PS: 140K to reach the 14M km2 (and one month of possible increases).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #205 on: February 14, 2019, 05:03:56 AM »
Still a century below the last minimax (2016) ... but continuing northerly winds on the Atlantic front make a new one exceedingly unlikely. Oh well.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #206 on: February 14, 2019, 08:45:09 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,860,508 km2(February 13, 2019)

- Extent gain 105k, 64k more than the average gain of 41k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 15 k (0.2%) greater than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 94.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 26 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.35 million km2 (470k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.32 million km2, (440k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Phil42

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #207 on: February 14, 2019, 09:39:31 AM »
For anyone who is like me and thought this increase is very weird.

I checked some numbers and while a century increase this late is unusual it is not all unprecedented. Since JAXA records began in 1979, there have been a total of 10 century increases in the freezing season after 13th February (ordered by date):

13th February 2019: +104'786 km2 (yesterday)
14th February 2017: +110'137 km2
15th February 2017: +127'281 km2
15th February 2005: +114'256 km2
19th February 2014: +111'171 km2
20th February 2014: +110'795 km2
24th February 2013: +117'014 km2
24th February 2016: +149'990 km2
1st March 2012: +186'143 km2 (biggest increase)
12th March 2014: +115'282 km2 (latest century increase)

Worthy to mention here is that those late century increases are a phenomenon that really only started to occur regularly in the last 10 years.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #208 on: February 14, 2019, 09:47:02 AM »
Still a century below the last minimax (2016) ... but continuing northerly winds on the Atlantic front make a new one exceedingly unlikely. Oh well.

The minimum max is 13,878,287 established in 2017, so 2019 is only 17,779 km2 below the minimum max.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #209 on: February 14, 2019, 10:12:29 AM »
Still a century below the last minimax (2016) ... but continuing northerly winds on the Atlantic front make a new one exceedingly unlikely. Oh well.

The minimum max is 13,878,287 established in 2017, so 2019 is only 17,779 km2 below the minimum max.

My bad ... but there is still the very slimmest of changes for a new minimax ...

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #210 on: February 14, 2019, 10:22:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Table of Minimum Max (Feb 13th, 2019):
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #211 on: February 14, 2019, 10:34:52 AM »
My bad ... but there is still the very slimmest of changes for a new minimax ...

I am still on the 14-14.25 M km2 range.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

be cause

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #212 on: February 14, 2019, 11:27:26 AM »
No doubt Gerontocrat will soon confirm that much of today's 100,000+ increase is in Barents . The area will be cold for days to come . I would not be suprised to see another 100k day .. perhaps more than one .. and that Barents will recover to something like the 'old days' and we have a late and unexpectedly high max this year . b.c.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #213 on: February 14, 2019, 03:14:41 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,559,771 km2
         
Total Area      
 12,559,771    km2   
 123,493    km2   >
 548,477    k   >
-536,430    k   <
      
Total gain/loss    29    k
Peripheral Seas    9    k
Central Seas__    9    k
Other Seas___    10    k
      
Peripheral Seas      
Bering _______    5    k
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k
Greenland____    6    k
Barents ______    4    k
      
CAB Seas      
Beaufort_____    3    k
CAA_________   -0    k
East Siberian__   -3    k
Central Arctic_    8    k
      
Kara_________    3    k
Laptev_______   -1    k
Chukchi______    1    k
      
Other Seas      
Okhotsk______    14    k
St Lawrence___   -5    k
Hudson Bay___    1    k
Area GAIN 29 k, 7k more than the 2010's average gain of 22k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin Bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

The data is the NSIDC 5 day trailing average, so the large daily extent gain will take time to show in the tables. Nevertheless, the data is already showing the effect of the recent change in the location of the temperature differences across the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #214 on: February 15, 2019, 05:01:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 14th, 2019:
     13,953,863 km2, almost a century increase of 93,355 km2.
     2019 is now the 9th lowest on record.
PS: 46K to reach the 14M km2 (and one month of possible increases).
      No new minimum max on 2019!
      Seems that 2019 is following 2007 & 2012  :o (Hope not!  ;) ) On Feb 14th they are
      around 14M km2.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2019, 05:06:25 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #215 on: February 15, 2019, 07:48:01 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,953,863 km2(February 14, 2019)

- Extent gain 93k, 53k more than the average gain of 50k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 58 k (062%) greater than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 94.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 25 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.39 million km2 (510k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.36 million km2, (480k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and 0 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #216 on: February 15, 2019, 03:24:19 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,612,962 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,612,962    km2      
 153,153    km2   >    2010's average.
 589,560    k   >   2018
-498,027    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    53    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    23    k   gain
Central Seas__    12    k   gain
Other Seas___    18    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    6    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    11    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Area GAIN 53 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average gain of 29k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and 0 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #217 on: February 16, 2019, 04:59:21 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 15th, 2019:
     13,945,503 km2, a small drop of -8,360 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #218 on: February 16, 2019, 09:11:29 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,945,503 km2(February 15, 2019)

- Extent loss 8k, 52k less than the average gain of 44k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 6 k (0.1%) greater than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 24 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.34 million km2 (460k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.30 million km2, (420k >2017).

Note how the cool conditions on the Atlantic Front and the high gains in the previous 2 days let this writer guess at continuing high gains. And what happens? - extent loss. There are times when one is drawn back to James Lovelock's original concept of earth as GAIA - a sentient being, able to mock us even as she is abused by us. Anthropomorthism?

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +0 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times. See next post
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #219 on: February 16, 2019, 09:17:52 AM »
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +0 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times, as sown in the GFS image for Sunday 17th.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Wherestheice

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #220 on: February 16, 2019, 10:08:00 AM »



Note how the cool conditions on the Atlantic Front and the high gains in the previous 2 days let this writer guess at continuing high gains. And what happens? - extent loss. There are times when one is drawn back to James Lovelock's original concept of earth as GAIA - a sentient being, able to mock us even as she is abused by us. Anthropomorthism?


Interesting you note that. Because nature is so fricken hard to predict
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #221 on: February 16, 2019, 02:27:21 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,658,476  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,658,476    km2      
 164,176    km2   >    2010's average.
 610,283    k   >   2018
-461,506    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    46    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    20    k   gain
Central Seas__    13    k   gain
Other Seas___    12    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Area GAIN 46 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average gain of 34k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +0 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times, as shown in the GFS image for Sunday 17th posted above.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #222 on: February 17, 2019, 05:07:37 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 16th, 2019:
     13,919,453 km2, a drop of -26,050 km2.
     2019 is now 8th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #223 on: February 17, 2019, 01:18:49 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,945,503 km2(February 15, 2019)

- Extent loss 26k, 54k less than the average gain of 28k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 48 k (0.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 23 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.28 million km2 (400k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.26 million km2, (380k >2017).

Note how the cool conditions on the Atlantic Front and the high gains in the previous 2 days let this writer guess at continuing high gains. And what happens? - extent losses. There are times when one is drawn back to James Lovelock's original concept of earth as GAIA - a sentient being, able to mock us even as she is abused by us. Anthropomorthism?

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +2 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #224 on: February 17, 2019, 06:02:31 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,704,061  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,704,061    km2      
 167,091    km2   >    2010's average.
 628,517    k   >   2018
-428,691    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    46    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    21    k   gain
Central Seas__    12    k   gain
Other Seas___    13    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    12    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    6    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Area GAIN 46 k, 3 k more than the 2010's average gain of 43k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +2 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #225 on: February 18, 2019, 05:55:58 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 17th, 2019:
     13,926,911 km2, an increase of 7,458 km2.
     2019 is 8th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #226 on: February 18, 2019, 08:37:28 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2(February 17, 2019)

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 41 k (0.4%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 22 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.29 million km2 (410k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives the same maximum.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times. - see next post.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #227 on: February 18, 2019, 08:40:43 AM »
As I said in the post above, GFS indicates that  the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay is tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times. The image attached gives an indication of the possibility of the degree of that extreme.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #228 on: February 18, 2019, 08:57:09 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2(February 17, 2019)

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.


Isn't the average gain closer to 20k on this day, at least judging from the graph?

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #229 on: February 18, 2019, 09:08:17 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2(February 17, 2019)

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.


Isn't the average gain closer to 20k on this day, at least judging from the graph?
That's the only misleading part of Gerontocrat great reports. He's comparing to the still 'wobbly' 10-year average instead of using the filtered trend.
I would say filtering is not fake science, so look at his nice plot, do the math in your head, and ignore that sentence on a daily basis

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #230 on: February 18, 2019, 10:00:27 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2(February 17, 2019)

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.


Isn't the average gain closer to 20k on this day, at least judging from the graph?
That's the only misleading part of Gerontocrat great reports. He's comparing to the still 'wobbly' 10-year average instead of using the filtered trend.
I would say filtering is not fake science, so look at his nice plot, do the math in your head, and ignore that sentence on a daily basis
It's not misleading and is actually useful, because the real 10 year average is what decides if 2019 will go up or down in the rankings table in a given day. But the filtered average is also interesting as it says if the gain/loss is above or below real expectations for the date.

binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #231 on: February 18, 2019, 10:25:30 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2(February 17, 2019)

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.


Isn't the average gain closer to 20k on this day, at least judging from the graph?
That's the only misleading part of Gerontocrat great reports. He's comparing to the still 'wobbly' 10-year average instead of using the filtered trend.
I would say filtering is not fake science, so look at his nice plot, do the math in your head, and ignore that sentence on a daily basis
It's not misleading and is actually useful, because the real 10 year average is what decides if 2019 will go up or down in the rankings table in a given day. But the filtered average is also interesting as it says if the gain/loss is above or below real expectations for the date.

I'm still not following - in the "Daily extent gain/loss" graph, the blue line "average daily change" is very close to 20k for this day - it doesn't say what years are covered in the "average" but the sentence "average gain of 1k on this day" does not match up to anything.

The other graph showing sea ice extent has the 2010's average at a significant smidgeon below current extent, or to be exact, some 65k below today's extent as can be read directly from the table.

So I think Gerantocrat has made a mistake, today's gain of 7k is probably some 13k lower than average daily gain for this day (as is made clear from the graph, with the red line ending at least 10k below the blue line.

binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #232 on: February 18, 2019, 10:28:52 AM »
So I think Gerantocrat has made a mistake, today's gain of 7k is probably some 13k lower than average daily gain for this day (as is made clear from the graph, with the red line ending at least 10k below the blue line.

Having just been reading about selective blindness I'm not all that surprised to notice (after several good looks) that there are two blue lines - a smooth "Av. daily change" and a very jumpy "Polynomial (av. daily change)". And the red line does end up at a possible 1k above the second, polynomial, line - whatever  that means.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #233 on: February 18, 2019, 11:14:33 AM »
So I think Gerantocrat has made a mistake, today's gain of 7k is probably some 13k lower than average daily gain for this day (as is made clear from the graph, with the red line ending at least 10k below the blue line.

Having just been reading about selective blindness I'm not all that surprised to notice (after several good looks) that there are two blue lines - a smooth "Av. daily change" and a very jumpy "Polynomial (av. daily change)". And the red line does end up at a possible 1k above the second, polynomial, line - whatever  that means.

Me? Make a mistake? I can feel a Trump response coming on. Damn. I do not Tweet.
Instead, I have adjusted the graph layout a bit (not the data). See attached.

Read this very carefully, I will write it only once
The wobbly blue line is for each day the average of the last 10 years. And yes, it is very wobbly or wavy. Hence the x2 polynomial smoothing line, was blue, now dark violet to show the direction of travel.

(We had a discussion last year sometime about whether there was any chance of linking waves of above and below average extent gains and losses to movements of wind, waves, currents, warmth and cold around the Arctic - without any conclusion.)

So on the 17th February, the average of the previous 10 years was a gain of just 885 km2. That is the reality of the JAXA data.
The smoothed line is an artefact, i.e. does not actually exist.
___________________________________________________________
artefact - definition

something observed in a scientific investigation or experiment that is not naturally present but occurs as a result of the preparative or investigative procedure.
"the curvature of the surface is an artefact of the wide-angle view"
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #234 on: February 18, 2019, 11:21:11 AM »
'Allo 'Allo - zis is now to understand much easier.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #235 on: February 18, 2019, 02:11:49 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,745,155 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,745,155    km2      
 163,891    km2   >    2010's average.
 635,325    k   >   2018
-404,842    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    41    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    24    k   gain
Central Seas__    9    k   gain
Other Seas___    8    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    13    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area GAIN 41 k, 3 k less than the 2010's average gain of 44k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area. Bering starting to lose area again.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #236 on: February 19, 2019, 05:13:51 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 18th, 2019:
     13,962,528 km2, an increase of 35,617 km2.
     2019 is now 9th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #237 on: February 19, 2019, 06:30:10 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,962,528 km2(February 18, 2019)

- Extent gain 36k, 33k more than the average gain of 3k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 9 k (0.1%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 21 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.33 million km2 (450k >2017's record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days, and then up to a perhaps unbelievable +5  or more, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times. See next post
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #238 on: February 19, 2019, 06:33:14 AM »
The attached image shows an extreme contrast in the temperature anomalies of the Atlantic front and the Pacific side.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #239 on: February 19, 2019, 02:49:56 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,769,364 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,769,364    km2      
 148,839    km2   >    2010's average.
 629,788    k   >   2018
-404,271    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    24    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain
Central Seas__    12    k   gain
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    17    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area GAIN 24 k, 15 k less than the 2010's average gain of 39k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days, and then up to a perhaps unbelievable +5  or more, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area. Bering and the Chukchi continuing to lose area.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #240 on: February 20, 2019, 05:01:05 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 19th, 2019:
     14,012,202 km2, an increase of 49,674 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
     New max for 2019. And now above the 14M km2 mark.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #241 on: February 20, 2019, 09:42:25 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,012,202 km2(February 19, 2019)

- Extent gain 50k, 37k more than the average gain of 13k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 28 k (0.1%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 20 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.36 million km2 (480k >2017's record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days, and then up to a perhaps unbelievable +5  or more, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

echoughton

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #242 on: February 20, 2019, 12:31:38 PM »
AND>>>>We're above 14 million. Not a bad year for ASI!!! 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)
(I realize it could be a ripe frozen cherry)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #243 on: February 20, 2019, 02:28:01 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,789,901  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,789,901    km2      
 138,928    km2   >    2010's average.
 623,766    k   >   2018
-409,362    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    21    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain
Central Seas__    11    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    17    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Area GAIN 21 k, 9 k less than the 2010's average gain of 30k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days, and then up to a perhaps unbelievable +5  or more, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area. Bering and the Chukchi continuing to lose area.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Rodius

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #244 on: February 21, 2019, 12:22:31 AM »
Is it just my imagination, but it seems like the maximum used to be earlier in the year than it is now..... I am talking decade averages here.

To me, just eyeballing the graph, it looks like the 80s peaked around 3rd March.
90s peaked at about 10th March.
00s peaked about 10th March
10s then goes to 17th March and, maybe at a stretch, end of March.

If this is correct.... does anyone know why the end of the freeze is taking longer each decade?

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #245 on: February 21, 2019, 05:22:53 AM »
Feb 20:           14,085,455
Increase of            73,253
9th lowest on record
Might soon surpass 2012 to move into 10th place
Feel The Burn!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #246 on: February 21, 2019, 06:40:22 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,085,455 km2(February 20, 2019)

- Extent gain 73k, 69k more than the average gain of 4k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 97 k (1.0%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 19 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.43 million km2 (550k >2017's record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +4 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Altai

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #247 on: February 21, 2019, 11:22:03 AM »
Thats because the periphery of the Arctic ocean is not ice-covered anymore and the edge of ice is now in the area where the solar radiation in March is very poor and the ice is still expading till the mid-March. In the 1980-s the edge was much further to the south and was already affected by solar radiation in the beginning of March.




Is it just my imagination, but it seems like the maximum used to be earlier in the year than it is now..... I am talking decade averages here.

To me, just eyeballing the graph, it looks like the 80s peaked around 3rd March.
90s peaked at about 10th March.
00s peaked about 10th March
10s then goes to 17th March and, maybe at a stretch, end of March.

If this is correct.... does anyone know why the end of the freeze is taking longer each decade?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #248 on: February 21, 2019, 03:35:21 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,823,767  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,823,767    km2      
 148,901    km2   >   2010's average.
 633,134    k   >   2018
-397,912    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    34    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    18    k   gain
Central Seas__    5    k   gain
Other Seas___    10    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    20    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Area GAIN 34 k, 10 k more than the 2010's average gain of 24k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +4 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area. Bering Sea continuing to lose area though at a slower rate.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Klondike Kat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #249 on: February 21, 2019, 04:29:41 PM »
Thats because the periphery of the Arctic ocean is not ice-covered anymore and the edge of ice is now in the area where the solar radiation in March is very poor and the ice is still expading till the mid-March. In the 1980-s the edge was much further to the south and was already affected by solar radiation in the beginning of March.

That makes so much sense.  Thanks.