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Author Topic: 2019 sea ice area and extent data  (Read 37808 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #200 on: February 13, 2019, 02:02:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,531,131 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,531,131    km2      
 117,255    km2   >    2010's average.
 551,247    k   >   2018
-538,003    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    13    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__    1    k   gain
Other Seas___    6    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____    8    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Area GAIN 13 k, 2k more than the 2010's average gain of 11k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  Looking at the tables shows how cold and warmth is moving around the Arctic.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #201 on: February 13, 2019, 02:10:36 PM »
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

interstitial

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #202 on: February 14, 2019, 02:48:37 AM »
Is that chart accurate? Did the Beufort sea have that much less ice in the 1980s than the following decades?

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #203 on: February 14, 2019, 04:24:42 AM »
Is that chart accurate? Did the Beufort sea have that much less ice in the 1980s than the following decades?
Yes, the chart is accurate, though it does seem counter-intuitive. Note that this is an area chart - extent was at maximum throughout the period.
I would expect the explanation to lie with the Beaufort gyre, causing fractures and leads, though without the actual satellite images this is just a wild guess.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #204 on: February 14, 2019, 04:55:10 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 13th, 2019:
     13,860,508 km2, a century increase of 104,786 km2::)
     2019 is still the 7th lowest on record.
PS: 140K to reach the 14M km2 (and one month of possible increases).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #205 on: February 14, 2019, 05:03:56 AM »
Still a century below the last minimax (2016) ... but continuing northerly winds on the Atlantic front make a new one exceedingly unlikely. Oh well.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #206 on: February 14, 2019, 08:45:09 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,860,508 km2(February 13, 2019)

- Extent gain 105k, 64k more than the average gain of 41k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 15 k (0.2%) greater than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 94.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 26 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.35 million km2 (470k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.32 million km2, (440k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Phil42

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #207 on: February 14, 2019, 09:39:31 AM »
For anyone who is like me and thought this increase is very weird.

I checked some numbers and while a century increase this late is unusual it is not all unprecedented. Since JAXA records began in 1979, there have been a total of 10 century increases in the freezing season after 13th February (ordered by date):

13th February 2019: +104'786 km2 (yesterday)
14th February 2017: +110'137 km2
15th February 2017: +127'281 km2
15th February 2005: +114'256 km2
19th February 2014: +111'171 km2
20th February 2014: +110'795 km2
24th February 2013: +117'014 km2
24th February 2016: +149'990 km2
1st March 2012: +186'143 km2 (biggest increase)
12th March 2014: +115'282 km2 (latest century increase)

Worthy to mention here is that those late century increases are a phenomenon that really only started to occur regularly in the last 10 years.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #208 on: February 14, 2019, 09:47:02 AM »
Still a century below the last minimax (2016) ... but continuing northerly winds on the Atlantic front make a new one exceedingly unlikely. Oh well.

The minimum max is 13,878,287 established in 2017, so 2019 is only 17,779 km2 below the minimum max.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #209 on: February 14, 2019, 10:12:29 AM »
Still a century below the last minimax (2016) ... but continuing northerly winds on the Atlantic front make a new one exceedingly unlikely. Oh well.

The minimum max is 13,878,287 established in 2017, so 2019 is only 17,779 km2 below the minimum max.

My bad ... but there is still the very slimmest of changes for a new minimax ...

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #210 on: February 14, 2019, 10:22:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Table of Minimum Max (Feb 13th, 2019):
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #211 on: February 14, 2019, 10:34:52 AM »
My bad ... but there is still the very slimmest of changes for a new minimax ...

I am still on the 14-14.25 M km2 range.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

be cause

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #212 on: February 14, 2019, 11:27:26 AM »
No doubt Gerontocrat will soon confirm that much of today's 100,000+ increase is in Barents . The area will be cold for days to come . I would not be suprised to see another 100k day .. perhaps more than one .. and that Barents will recover to something like the 'old days' and we have a late and unexpectedly high max this year . b.c.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #213 on: February 14, 2019, 03:14:41 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,559,771 km2
         
Total Area      
 12,559,771    km2   
 123,493    km2   >
 548,477    k   >
-536,430    k   <
      
Total gain/loss    29    k
Peripheral Seas    9    k
Central Seas__    9    k
Other Seas___    10    k
      
Peripheral Seas      
Bering _______    5    k
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k
Greenland____    6    k
Barents ______    4    k
      
CAB Seas      
Beaufort_____    3    k
CAA_________   -0    k
East Siberian__   -3    k
Central Arctic_    8    k
      
Kara_________    3    k
Laptev_______   -1    k
Chukchi______    1    k
      
Other Seas      
Okhotsk______    14    k
St Lawrence___   -5    k
Hudson Bay___    1    k
Area GAIN 29 k, 7k more than the 2010's average gain of 22k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin Bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

The data is the NSIDC 5 day trailing average, so the large daily extent gain will take time to show in the tables. Nevertheless, the data is already showing the effect of the recent change in the location of the temperature differences across the Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #214 on: February 15, 2019, 05:01:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 14th, 2019:
     13,953,863 km2, almost a century increase of 93,355 km2.
     2019 is now the 9th lowest on record.
PS: 46K to reach the 14M km2 (and one month of possible increases).
      No new minimum max on 2019!
      Seems that 2019 is following 2007 & 2012  :o (Hope not!  ;) ) On Feb 14th they are
      around 14M km2.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2019, 05:06:25 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #215 on: February 15, 2019, 07:48:01 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,953,863 km2(February 14, 2019)

- Extent gain 93k, 53k more than the average gain of 50k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 58 k (062%) greater than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 94.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 25 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.39 million km2 (510k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.36 million km2, (480k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and 0 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #216 on: February 15, 2019, 03:24:19 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,612,962 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,612,962    km2      
 153,153    km2   >    2010's average.
 589,560    k   >   2018
-498,027    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    53    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    23    k   gain
Central Seas__    12    k   gain
Other Seas___    18    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    6    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    11    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Area GAIN 53 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average gain of 29k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and 0 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)