2019 sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 12 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,531,131 km2

Total Area           12,531,131    km2        117,255    km2   >    2010's average.  551,247    k   >   2018 -538,003    k   <    2000's average.           Total gain/loss    13    k   gain Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain Central Seas__    1    k   gain Other Seas___    6    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -5    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss Greenland____    8    k   gain Barents ______    5    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_    12    k   gain           Kara_________    2    k   gain Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Chukchi______   -2    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    12    k   gain St Lawrence___   -7    k   loss Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Area GAIN 13 k, 2k more than the 2010's average gain of 11k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  Looking at the tables shows how cold and warmth is moving around the Arctic.

[gerontocrat]

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.

[interstitial]

Is that chart accurate? Did the Beufort sea have that much less ice in the 1980s than the following decades?

[oren]

Is that chart accurate? Did the Beufort sea have that much less ice in the 1980s than the following decades?

Yes, the chart is accurate, though it does seem counter-intuitive. Note that this is an area chart - extent was at maximum throughout the period.
I would expect the explanation to lie with the Beaufort gyre, causing fractures and leads, though without the actual satellite images this is just a wild guess.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 13^th, 2019:
     13,860,508 km², a century increase of 104,786 km². 
     2019 is still the 7^th lowest on record.
PS: 140K to reach the 14M km² (and one month of possible increases).

[binntho]

Still a century below the last minimax (2016) ... but continuing northerly winds on the Atlantic front make a new one exceedingly unlikely. Oh well.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,860,508 km2（February 13, 2019）

- Extent gain 105k, 64k more than the average gain of 41k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 15 k (0.2%) greater than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 94.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 26 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.35 million km2 (470k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.32 million km2, (440k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.

[Phil42]

For anyone who is like me and thought this increase is very weird.

I checked some numbers and while a century increase this late is unusual it is not all unprecedented. Since JAXA records began in 1979, there have been a total of 10 century increases in the freezing season after 13^th February (ordered by date):

13^th February 2019: +104'786 km² (yesterday)
14^th February 2017: +110'137 km²
15^th February 2017: +127'281 km²
15^th February 2005: +114'256 km²
19^th February 2014: +111'171 km²
20^th February 2014: +110'795 km²
24^th February 2013: +117'014 km²
24^th February 2016: +149'990 km²
1^st March 2012: +186'143 km² (biggest increase)
12^th March 2014: +115'282 km² (latest century increase)

Worthy to mention here is that those late century increases are a phenomenon that really only started to occur regularly in the last 10 years.

[Juan C. García]

Still a century below the last minimax (2016) ... but continuing northerly winds on the Atlantic front make a new one exceedingly unlikely. Oh well.

The minimum max is 13,878,287 established in 2017, so 2019 is only 17,779 km² below the minimum max.

[binntho]

Still a century below the last minimax (2016) ... but continuing northerly winds on the Atlantic front make a new one exceedingly unlikely. Oh well.

The minimum max is 13,878,287 established in 2017, so 2019 is only 17,779 km² below the minimum max.

My bad ... but there is still the very slimmest of changes for a new minimax ...

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Table of Minimum Max (Feb 13^th, 2019):

[Juan C. García]

My bad ... but there is still the very slimmest of changes for a new minimax ...

I am still on the 14-14.25 M km² range.

[be cause]

No doubt Gerontocrat will soon confirm that much of today's 100,000+ increase is in Barents . The area will be cold for days to come . I would not be suprised to see another 100k day .. perhaps more than one .. and that Barents will recover to something like the 'old days' and we have a late and unexpectedly high max this year . b.c.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 13 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,559,771 km2

Total Area        12,559,771    km2     123,493    km2   >  548,477    k   > -536,430    k   <        Total gain/loss    29    k Peripheral Seas    9    k Central Seas__    9    k Other Seas___    10    k        Peripheral Seas       Bering _______    5    k Baffin  Bay____   -6    k Greenland____    6    k Barents ______    4    k        CAB Seas       Beaufort_____    3    k CAA_________   -0    k East Siberian__   -3    k Central Arctic_    8    k        Kara_________    3    k Laptev_______   -1    k Chukchi______    1    k        Other Seas       Okhotsk______    14    k St Lawrence___   -5    k Hudson Bay___    1    k

Area GAIN 29 k, 7k more than the 2010's average gain of 22k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin Bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

The data is the NSIDC 5 day trailing average, so the large daily extent gain will take time to show in the tables. Nevertheless, the data is already showing the effect of the recent change in the location of the temperature differences across the Arctic.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 14^th, 2019:
     13,953,863 km², almost a century increase of 93,355 km².
     2019 is now the 9^th lowest on record.
PS: 46K to reach the 14M km² (and one month of possible increases).
      No new minimum max on 2019!
      Seems that 2019 is following 2007 & 2012  (Hope not!  ) On Feb 14^th they are
      around 14M km².

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,953,863 km2（February 14, 2019）

- Extent gain 93k, 53k more than the average gain of 50k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 58 k (062%) greater than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 94.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 25 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.39 million km2 (510k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.36 million km2, (480k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and 0 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 14 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,612,962 km2

Total Area           12,612,962    km2        153,153    km2   >    2010's average.  589,560    k   >   2018 -498,027    k   <    2000's average.           Total gain/loss    53    k   gain Peripheral Seas    23    k   gain Central Seas__    12    k   gain Other Seas___    18    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    14    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______    5    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    6    k   gain CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_    5    k   gain           Kara_________    1    k   gain Laptev_______    0    k   gain Chukchi______    3    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    11    k   gain St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain

Area GAIN 53 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average gain of 29k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and 0 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.