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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #450 on: March 29, 2019, 01:18:49 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 28 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,498,845 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,498,845    km2      
-417,378    km2   <   2010's average.
-83,043    k   <   2018
-712,197    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -60    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -27    k   loss
Central Seas__   -19    k   loss
Other Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -24    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -15    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -14    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area LOSS 60 k, a variation of 76 k from the 2010's average gain of 16 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +7 degrees to +7.5 until the end of the month, then gradually drift down in the following week to around +3.5.

The high temperature anomaly began about 5 days ago, and the 5 day trailing average is still showing very high declines, and high declines are now also showing in the 5 day trailing average extent data.

Will this sea ice melt continue long enough to be a real headline event? And for how long?
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #451 on: March 30, 2019, 05:29:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 29th, 2019:
     13,588,813 km2, a century drop of -113,286 km2.
     2019 is 3th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #452 on: March 30, 2019, 08:47:12 AM »
Oh, oh...

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #453 on: March 30, 2019, 09:08:56 AM »
Oh, oh,...
Another little drop below 13.55 M km² tomorrow will push 2019 to the lowest extent ever measured on that date. Not good!
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #454 on: March 30, 2019, 10:37:31 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,588,813 km2(March 29, 2019)

- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 113k, 87 k GREATER than the average loss of 26 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 682k, 413 k (154%) greater than the average of 269k loss by this day,
- On average 2.7% of the melting season done, with 168 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.98 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will drift down from +7.5  to around +4.5 over the next 10 days, with extreme anomalies initially in the Chuckchi & Beaufort and later in the Kara & Laptev regions.

Strong extent loss may continue, but there is less than 3% of the melting season done.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2019, 12:24:13 PM by gerontocrat »
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binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #455 on: March 30, 2019, 11:40:46 AM »
I think the loss at 113 must be 87k more than the average loss of 26k - not less.

I know it's confusing, but if both figures show loss then the bigger figure shows more loss. Alternatively, if both figures show gain the bigger figure shows more gain.

The problem arises in how to express the difference between loss and gain. If the loss in a given day is 50k and the average is a gain of 25k for that day, it would be incorrect to say that the loss was 75k more than average for that day, perhaps the most correct phrasing would be " 50k loss, a difference of 75k from the average of 25k gain".
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pietkuip

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #456 on: March 30, 2019, 12:20:22 PM »
Yes, I agree. I looked at the graph first, saw that it was melting fast. So I was surprised to read that extent loss was less than average.  It is difficult with negative numbers but it would be clearer to write this in a different way. Maybe using words like "faster"/"slower"?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #457 on: March 30, 2019, 12:23:23 PM »
I think the loss at 113 must be 87k more than the average loss of 26k - not less.

I know it's confusing, but if both figures show loss then the bigger figure shows more loss. Alternatively, if both figures show gain the bigger figure shows more gain.

The problem arises in how to express the difference between loss and gain. If the loss in a given day is 50k and the average is a gain of 25k for that day, it would be incorrect to say that the loss was 75k more than average for that day, perhaps the most correct phrasing would be " 50k loss, a difference of 75k from the average of 25k gain".
Whoops ! That was an oversight. 113k was obviously a greater loss than the average loss. The only confusion should be when gain occurs against a normal loss or vice versa, which is when I do use the phrase "a variation of x k from....".
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DavidR

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #458 on: March 31, 2019, 06:07:18 AM »
A JAXA extent loss of -165712 km^2 today drops the extent over {150K corrected} 137K below the previous record for the day. This is the lowest March value since at least 2002. It is also the second largest single day loss for March.  Yesterdays drop of 113K was the 6th largest drop.
 
« Last Edit: March 31, 2019, 03:06:07 PM by DavidR »
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #459 on: March 31, 2019, 07:00:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 30th, 2019:
     13,423,101 km2, a century drop of -165,712 km2:o
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
 
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #460 on: March 31, 2019, 08:30:19 AM »
This drop is higher and steeper than I thought it would be. If there were no further change in the next days (what I do not expect), 2019 will keep the record low position at least until April 3.
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jdallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #461 on: March 31, 2019, 08:35:40 AM »
This drop is higher and steeper than I thought it would be. If there were no further change in the next days (what I do not expect), 2019 will keep the record low position at least until April 3.
I think it will get worse.  There is much that will be lost in the Barents and Bering, as well as possibly the Okhotsk.
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oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #462 on: March 31, 2019, 08:52:39 AM »
This certainly deserves a wow!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #463 on: March 31, 2019, 10:46:28 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,423,101 km2(March 30, 2019)

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 166k, 147 k GREATER than the average loss of 19 k on this day. Not quite a record breaker for March (March 23 2014 loss 169k).
- Extent loss from maximum 848k, 560 k (195%) greater than the average of 288k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 2.9% of the melting season done, with 168 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.83 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.65 million above the 2017 low of 3.18 milliom km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.128 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a max of 7.8 today to around +4.8 over the next 10 days, with extreme anomalies initially in the Chuckchi & Beaufort and very soon after in the Kara & Laptev regions.

Strong extent loss may continue, but there is 97% of the melting season remaining to be done.
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magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #464 on: March 31, 2019, 11:20:07 AM »
- Extent loss on this day 166k, 147 k GREATER than the average loss of 19 k on this day. Not quite a record breaker for March (March 23 2014 loss 169k).

i think it's worth to see where and how much more peripheral ice there was in 2014, hence we are now comparing numbers with earlier years that loose their comparability to a certain extent because once the CAB will lose 100k i march it will mean much more and be much worse than i.e. the 169k in march 2014 in quite "southern"  peripheral seas.

i'm sure someone can put this thought into better language than i can but hope what i'm heading it is somehow comprehensive.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2019, 05:04:30 PM by magnamentis »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #465 on: March 31, 2019, 02:34:00 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,390,366 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,390,366    km2      
-539,986    km2   <   2010's average.
-239,360    k   <   2018
-790,445    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -55    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -25    k   loss
Central Seas__   -10    k   loss
Other Seas___   -20    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -26    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -22    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Area LOSS 55 k, a variation of 60 k from the 2010's average gain of 5 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a max of 7.8 today to around +4.8 over the next 10 days, with extreme anomalies initially in the Chuckchi & Beaufort and very soon after in the Kara & Laptev regions.

The high temperature anomaly began about 5 days ago, and the 5 day trailing average is still showing very high declines, and high declines are now also showing in the 5 day trailing average extent data.

A surprise (to me at least) is that total area as of yesterday and today is now the lowest in the satellite record for those two days (for the first time in 2019)

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. And for how much  longer?
[/quote]
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #466 on: March 31, 2019, 06:01:05 PM »
Evaluating the individual seas between March 13 and March 31 the biggest contributors are Barents, Okhotsk, St. Lawrence, Kara and Baffin, of which St. Lawrence showed the biggest relative decrease (63 %). All of these seas are quite "southern" and - except for Kara - not part of the "inner seas" close to CAB.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #467 on: March 31, 2019, 06:13:52 PM »
I am not aware of a larger 2 day drop in March. The bottom dropped out and the sea of Okhotsk has a large area of thin dispersed ice that could blink out quickly in the next few days.

The weather is going to shift to deep lows in the Labrador sea over the next week. That's going to increase ice export and fresh water out of the Labrador sea and increase deep water formation where the cold air blasts off of eastern Canada onto the shelf edge. The coming weather will speed up ice loss in the Labrador and Greenland seas.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #468 on: March 31, 2019, 07:34:49 PM »
Evaluating the individual seas between March 13 and March 31 the biggest contributors are Barents, Okhotsk, St. Lawrence, Kara and Baffin, of which St. Lawrence showed the biggest relative decrease (63 %). All of these seas are quite "southern" and - except for Kara - not part of the "inner seas" close to CAB.

And yet the central Arctic Seas have collectively strung 14 days of consecutive losses.

Darvince

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #469 on: March 31, 2019, 07:39:52 PM »
Which have been almost wholly in Kara and Chukchi from the 'leakage'/influence of what's going on in Barents and Bering repsectively.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #470 on: April 01, 2019, 05:47:22 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 31st, 2019:
     13,375,181 km2, a drop of -47,920 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #471 on: April 01, 2019, 08:42:08 AM »
If there were no further drop in the next days (what I do not expect), 2019 will keep the record low position at least until April 5.
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Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #472 on: April 01, 2019, 09:54:26 AM »
This year had the lowest average daily change in the JAXA SIE 2005-2019 record:
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #473 on: April 01, 2019, 10:12:32 AM »
This year had the lowest average daily change in the JAXA SIE 2005-2019 record:

"Highest" daily change!

It's negative numbers, but it's a greater change.

Language is a bitch, isn't it?  ;)

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #474 on: April 01, 2019, 10:36:22 AM »
If there were no further drop in the next days (what I do not expect), 2019 will keep the record low position at least until April 5.

I just posted the same on another forum. March 12 to 31 is a record loss for that time period. Average loss is 46 to 48k if my really poor math skills are to be believed.

Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #475 on: April 01, 2019, 10:58:24 AM »
Language is a bitch, isn't it?  ;)

I'm a translator, tell me about it.  ;D

Quote
"Highest" daily change!

It's negative numbers, but it's a greater change.

But it's the lowest average, right? Should I have said 'lowest daily change average' instead of 'lowest average daily change'?
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Avalonian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #476 on: April 01, 2019, 11:03:11 AM »
'Greatest average daily drop' would do the job unambiguously.  :)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #477 on: April 01, 2019, 11:12:21 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,375,181 km2(March 31, 2019)

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 48k, 39 k greater than the average loss of 9 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 896k, 599 k (202%) greater than the average of 297k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 3.0% of the melting season done, with 167 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.79 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.61 million km2 above the 2017 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.155 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a max of 6.9 today to around +4.5 over the next 10 days, with the most extreme anomalies over Monday to Wednesday in the Kara & Laptev and then the ESS regions.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #478 on: April 01, 2019, 11:19:09 AM »
'Greatest average daily drop' would do the job unambiguously.  :)

I comment about extent loss slightly differently in my posts, e.g.

"- Extent loss from maximum 896k, 599 k (202%) greater than the average of 297k loss from maximum by this day,"
Or even more simply, extent loss from maximum is 3 times the average.

No matter how you say it or what data you use, it is an event.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #479 on: April 01, 2019, 11:21:00 AM »
'Greatest average daily drop' would do the job unambiguously.  :)

+1

But it's the lowest average, right? Should I have said 'lowest daily change average' instead of 'lowest average daily change'?

When it comes to average, i'm out. It's getting blurry here. ;)

Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #480 on: April 01, 2019, 11:50:17 AM »
'Greatest average daily drop' would do the job unambiguously.  :)

Yes, I thought about that. The problem is: Some years had an average increase. Of course, that could be seen as a negative drop.

Either way, it will be easier after this, because from now on the SIE will drop for all years.  :)
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binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #481 on: April 01, 2019, 12:44:59 PM »
'Greatest average daily drop' would do the job unambiguously.  :)

Yes, I thought about that. The problem is: Some years had an average increase. Of course, that could be seen as a negative drop.

Either way, it will be easier after this, because from now on the SIE will drop for all years.  :)
I would go for something like "biggest negative average daily change" but somehow it just seems to getting more and more confusing ...
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #482 on: April 01, 2019, 02:06:29 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 31 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,338,818 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,338,818    km2      
-590,059    km2   <   2010's average.
-315,854    k   <   2018
-830,863    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -52    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss
Central Seas__   -18    k   loss
Other Seas___   -17    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -16    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -23    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain
Area loss 52 k, a variation of 51 k from the 2010's average loss of 1 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a max of 6.9 today to around +4.5 over the next 10 days, with the most extreme anomalies over Monday to Wednesday in the Kara & Laptev and the ESS regions.

The high temperature anomaly began about 5 days ago, and the 5 day trailing average is still showing very high declines, and high declines are now also showing in the 5 day trailing average extent data.

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. And for how much  longer?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #483 on: April 01, 2019, 03:18:49 PM »
It's the end of the month - so some area graphs

Pacific Gateway
Bering Sea looks like the melt is irreversible.
The area loss in the Chukchi might be just another giant wobble, or may be an extraordinarily early start to the melt season.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #484 on: April 01, 2019, 03:27:48 PM »
Canadian Seas

Baffin Bay losing area over the month well below the 2010's average
Canadian Archipelago dithering around the maximum.
Hudson Bay a bit below the 2010's average
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #485 on: April 01, 2019, 03:43:06 PM »
Atlantic Front
Greenland Sea area drifting along around the 2010's average - ice export from the Fram ?

Barents Sea area peaked in mid-March at well above 2010's average and ends the month below.

Kara and Laptev area losses since mid-March are impressive and bring area to well below the 2010's average and very early. Being so early the question is whether this loss will be sustained or could there be a rebound?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #486 on: April 01, 2019, 03:47:25 PM »
The melting season has not yet reached the Central Arctic.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #487 on: April 01, 2019, 03:50:32 PM »
Other Seas

Okhotsk pretty much average,
St Lawrence now average after a high March maximum.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Ktb

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #488 on: April 02, 2019, 05:07:52 AM »
Bimonthly BOE evaluation.

Max was reached on March 12, and was 14,271,121 km^2. Required average daily drop of -71.736 km^2 for a BOE to occur. We have had 5 days of above the necessary melt, and many days that had above average melt (quite impressive for March if you ask me). Total extent loss as of March 31 was -895,840 km^2, which is 467,140 km^2 shy of maintaining the necessary track for a BOE (attachment 2).

Instead, we have averaged an impressive -47,149 km^2 per day during the period between maximum and March 31. Since 2007, we have had only 1 year (2014) that had greater average loss during the period between the maximum and March 31 (attachment 3)

As of April 1st, we now require an average daily drop of -74,550 km^2 for the next 166 days.



Edit: And again, I want to emphasize that I am aware that we will most likely see FALSE for the entire season. I get it. I made and maintain this to show how difficult/significant a BOE will be. Who knows when this will be useful.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2019, 05:21:44 AM by Ktb »
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #489 on: April 02, 2019, 05:49:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 1st, 2019:
     13,308,217 km2, a drop of -66,964 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #490 on: April 02, 2019, 11:18:44 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,308,217 km2(April 1, 2019)

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 67k, 49 k greater than the average loss of 18 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 963k, 648 k (206%) greater than the average of 315k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 3.2% of the melting season done, with 165 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.74 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.57 million km2 above the 2017 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.198 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +6.6 today to around +3.8 over the next 10 days.The current extreme +ve anomalies  in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretch as far as the North Pole will moderate over the next few days.

Will extent loss also gradually moderate ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #491 on: April 02, 2019, 02:38:29 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,282,513 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,282,513    km2      
-635,562    km2   <   2010's average.
-382,908    k   <   2018
-874,092    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -56    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -21    k   loss
Other Seas___   -21    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -10    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -11    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -24    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Area loss 56 k, a variation of 45 k from the 2010's average loss of 11 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 4 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from +6.6 today to around +3.8 over the next 10 days.The current extreme +ve anomalies  in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretch as far as the North Pole will moderate over the next few days.

The high temperature anomaly began about one week ago, and the 5 day trailing average is still showing very high declines, and high declines are now also showing in the 5 day trailing average extent data.

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. As +ve anomalies drop will daily area loss drop as well?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #492 on: April 02, 2019, 08:31:22 PM »
This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a headline event.

Since you mentioned it the first time i was looking for that.

As far as my google skills got me, only our controversial friend Sam Carana mentioned it so far.

Link >> http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/03/arctic-warming-up-fast.html

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #493 on: April 02, 2019, 09:03:37 PM »
This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a headline event.

Since you mentioned it the first time i was looking for that.

As far as my google skills got me, only our controversial friend Sam Carana mentioned it so far.

Link >> http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/03/arctic-warming-up-fast.html

I chucked the info in as an off-topic comment in a guardian piece re Brexit by Marina Hyde (always worth a read if you like savage humour - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/02/macho-drama-queens-brexit-steve-baker-mark-francois#comment-127641115 )
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #494 on: April 02, 2019, 09:14:26 PM »
I chucked the info in as an off-topic comment in a guardian

That's pretty 'subversive'. I like it a lot. Well done sir.

Downpuppy

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #495 on: April 02, 2019, 09:30:38 PM »
Quote
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from +6.6 today to around +3.8 over the next 10 days.

Given the slope of the average at this point, is this about the same as saying the temperature will be flat?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #496 on: April 02, 2019, 10:32:59 PM »
Quote
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from +6.6 today to around +3.8 over the next 10 days.

Given the slope of the average at this point, is this about the same as saying the temperature will be flat?

Climate Reanalyzer shows anomalies as variation from the 1979-2000 average. So +3.8 celsius is still (though not hugely) above, the average Arctic temperature increase from that baseline average. And who knows what tomorrow will bring.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #497 on: April 03, 2019, 05:50:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 2nd, 2019:
     13,235,128 km2, a drop of -73,089 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)


210K km2 difference versus 2016 (now 2nd lowest)? Fiuu!  :o
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #498 on: April 03, 2019, 08:37:26 AM »
2019 is now six days ahead (8.4.2016 had the same extent as 2.4.2019) and further extent losses are likely.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #499 on: April 03, 2019, 08:56:32 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,235,128 km2(April 2, 2019)

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record for the fourth day in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 73k, 51 k greater than the average loss of 21 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1036k, 700 k (209%) greater than the average of 336k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 3.4% of the melting season done, with 164 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.69 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.51 million km2 above the 2017 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.239 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +6.8 today to around +5 over the next 10 days, i.e. a bit higher. The current extreme +ve anomalies in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretch as far as the North Pole will moderate over the next few days.

Will extent loss also gradually moderate (or will it just keep on going)?

ps: I have added 2016 (and 2017 for completeness) to the total extent graph as 2016 is mostly the front-runner for the next month or two.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)