It looks as if the line will continue downward in at least as steep an incline as the rest of the years which will make 2019 the record lowest extent!
...
I'm starting to take near term human extinction forecasts more seriously!
You'll come to see that the Arctic is out there to fool you. Noone in my experience can forecast, not even a single year but the next month either.
As for extinction, I don't believe in that. Humanity is quite versatile.
Generally true, but as a permaculture practitioner, and generally my entire life, I've a good sense of patterns. While the scientists still minimize or claim no relation between ENSO and ASI, I believe there is fairly significant one. Ergo, I was able to predict new lows, near new lows in ASI in the 2016-18 time frame due to the EN beginning in 2015.
Since then, I have seen some research showing warm air and moisture from the Pacific affects the ASI - which is exactly what my hypothesis was: EN's lead to a loading of heat into the Arctic, and it can take time, so within two years of an EN (no correlation with LN), there are typically new lows or near new lows.
We all know there were tons of daily (monthy?) records for extent, area over the last couple of years, particularly in the non-peak months, which I think we all assume has some effect on what I refer to as pre-conditioning.
From RealClimate, Aug, 2015:
Here is what I found going all the way back to the beginning of ASIE decline @ 1953-ish.
EN ’51 – ’54 = inception of ASI Extent decline.
EN ’57 – ’59 = Near New Low/New Low
EN ’65 – ’66 = Near New Low/New Low
EN ’68 – ’70 = New Low
EN ’72 – ’73 = possible correlation, some delay
EN ’76 – ’78 = New Low
EN ’79 – ’80 = New Low
EN ’82 – ’83 = New Low
EN ’86 – ’88 = New Low (’89,’90)
EN ’94 – ’95 = New Low
EN ’97 – ’98 = Drop from Previous (?)
EN ’04 – ’05 = Near New Low/New Low
EN ’04 – ’05/’06 – ’07 = New Low
EN ’09 – ’10 = New Low (’10, ’12)
EN ’15 – ’16 = New Low ’16,’17?...
...the hypothesis is more a 1 to 2 year lag, not only one. Looking at only one year wouldn’t find it...
Hopefully someone [a scientist] will look at it on the longer 2 year time frame added to the 1 year stuff already done, and update it.
I sent this stuff to Mark Serreze and he found it interesting, but said it wasn't his thing. Then this from last year:
...found that the strong global and Arctic changes depended on the magnitude of water vapor transfer from the mid-latitude oceans to the Arctic. When warm moist air is carried poleward towards the Arctic, it can lead to more low-lying clouds that act like a blanket, trapping warmth near the surface. The poleward movement of heat and moisture drive the Arctic's sea-ice retreat and low-cloud formation, amplifying Arctic warming.
The so-called ice-albedo feedback causes retreating ice and snow to lead to ever greater warming through increasing absorption of solar energy on darker surfaces.
If true for air and moisture, why not water flows, and over longer time periods, of course, and would EN's not enhance this effect?
Not the first time I've been ahead of the curve. I know eff all about the maths and the innards of the models and theories and details of what does what, which many of you do quite well, but I know patterns.
For your consideration.
Cheers