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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #500 on: April 03, 2019, 02:19:16 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,228,722 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,228,722    km2      
-671,956    km2   <   2010's average.
-428,283    k   <   2018
-917,001    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -54    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -18    k   loss
Other Seas___   -21    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -11    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -21    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Area loss 54 k, a variation of 37 k from the 2010's average loss of 17 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 5 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +6.8 today to around +5 over the next 10 days, i.e. a bit higher. The current extreme +ve anomalies in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretch as far as the North Pole will moderate over the next few days.

The high temperature anomaly began over one week ago, and the 5 day trailing average is still showing very high declines, and high declines are now also persisting in the 5 day trailing average extent data.

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. As +ve temp anomalies drop moderate will area loss also gradually moderate (or will it just keep on going)?

ps: NSIDC Daily Extent (5 day trailing average) also lowest for 5 days in a row
« Last Edit: April 03, 2019, 02:24:23 PM by gerontocrat »
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #501 on: April 04, 2019, 05:45:36 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 3rd, 2019:
     13,199,621 km2, a drop of -35,507 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)


The 5 lowest years today: 2015-2019.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2019, 05:51:00 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #502 on: April 04, 2019, 08:13:40 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,199,621 km2(April 3, 2019)

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record for the fifth day in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 36k, 2 k more than the average loss of 34 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1072k, 702 k (190%) greater than the average of 370k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 3.7% of the melting season done, with 163 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.69 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.51 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.275 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +6.8 today to around +3 over the next 10 days. The current extreme +ve anomalies in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretch as far as the North Pole will moderate over the next few days.

Will extent loss also gradually moderate (or will it just keep on going)?

ps: I have added 2016 (and 2017 for completeness) to the total extent graph as 2016 is mostly the front-runner for the next month or two.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2019, 02:51:48 PM by gerontocrat »
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Alison

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #503 on: April 04, 2019, 12:46:39 PM »
Quote
0.51 million km2 above the 2017 low of 3.18 million km2

Forgive me Gerontocrat. But should your ‘7’ be a ‘2’?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #504 on: April 04, 2019, 02:50:56 PM »
Quote
0.51 million km2 above the 2017 low of 3.18 million km2

Forgive me Gerontocrat. But should your ‘7’ be a ‘2’?
Yes it should.
Too many spreadsheets - was thinking about Global Sea Ice extent.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #505 on: April 04, 2019, 03:08:41 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,180,612 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,180,612    km2      
-704,607    km2   <   2010's average.
-459,241    k   <   2018
-954,539    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -48    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -22    k   loss
Central Seas__   -18    k   loss
Other Seas___   -9    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -9    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -12    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -14    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    6    k   gain

Area loss 48 k,  33 k more than the 2010's average loss of 15 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 6 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +6.8 today to around +3 over the next 10 days. The current extreme +ve anomalies in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretch as far as the North Pole will moderate over the next few days.

The high temperature anomaly began over one week ago, and the 5 day trailing average is still showing very high declines, and high declines are now also persisting in the 5 day trailing average extent data.

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. As +ve temp anomalies drop moderate, will area loss also gradually moderate (or will it just keep on going)?

ps: NSIDC Daily Extent (5 day trailing average) also lowest.
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Jontenoy

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #506 on: April 04, 2019, 07:40:40 PM »
Can someone please explain the difference between area and extent ?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #507 on: April 04, 2019, 07:44:54 PM »
Can someone please explain the difference between area and extent ?

Have a read of Tealight's documentation to his systems at https://cryospherecomputing.tk/doc.html

All will be revealed (plus a bit of history).
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #508 on: April 05, 2019, 06:00:54 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 4th, 2019:
     13,131,874 km2, a drop of -67,747 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)

Amazing!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #509 on: April 05, 2019, 09:06:19 AM »
The top losers of sea ice area (see gerontocrat's posting above) from March 20-April 3 are Okhotsk, Barents, Bering and Kara Seas. In relative numbers the decrease in sea ice area is highest in Bering, followed by St. Lawrence and Barents. Almost no change still in the central Arctic seas such as CAA, CAB and ESS.
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Jontenoy

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #510 on: April 05, 2019, 09:45:55 AM »
Area / Extent. Here is a take on the difference re. 2016 September minimum :

" The articifcal area increase hides how close to an ice-free state the Arctic really is. The 2016 September daily minimum was announched as 4.14 million km2, but the true sea ice area was only 2.34 million km2. A good description of the minimum would be: The 2016 September minimum ice cover was 2.34 million km2 spread out over an area of 4.14 million km2. If we have a completely ice free ocean then the additional area soaking up solar energy is just 2.34 million km2 and not 4.14 million km2."
The smaller the grid size (presently 25 * 25 km), the less the difference between Area and Extent. For calculations on energy transfer etc. , Area would be a better metric ?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #511 on: April 05, 2019, 10:11:18 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,131,874 km2(April 4, 2019)

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record for the sixth day in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 68k, 26 k more than the average loss of 42 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1139k, 728 k (177%) greater than the average of 412k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 4.2% of the melting season done, with 163 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.66 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.48 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.275 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 6 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for at least 2 weeks longer.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +6.0 today to around +2.5 over the next 10 days.

Will extent loss also gradually moderate (or will it just keep on going, or be cold enough for a refreeze in e.g. the Kara and Laptev seas)?

ps: I have added 2016 (and 2017 for completeness) to the total extent graph as 2016 is mostly the front-runner for the next month or two.
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LRC1962

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #512 on: April 05, 2019, 10:13:56 AM »
For calculations on energy transfer etc. , Area would be a better metric ?
I believe both are very valuable. Let us take pre 2000 and the extent and area were very similar not because of grid size, but because there was a much smaller dispersion area involved. Now that has been completely changed. extent is now almost twice the size as area. Just focusing on either extent or area then fitting in your energy transfer formula will give a false reading because area  size does not tell you dispersion. On the other hand extend will also have the same problem because it does not indicate how dense the pack ice is. Combining the two gives a far better indicator  early in the melt season as to how vulnerable the ice is but early in the freeze up it can also tell you potentially how much could possibly form. There is nothing simple about ice.
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ijgosse

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #513 on: April 05, 2019, 10:22:04 AM »
Good day,
I have been an attentive and permanent lurker for a couple of years, and really appreciate the profound knowledge and experience contributing to this forum.

There is an issue that has been nagging at the back of head for the last years, and that this open water, and more precisely the total time (days during the year) that the seas / oceans / bays that constitute the Artic Sea area have open water during the year. And also how soon there is already open water and the potential feedback that has on issue as jet stream movement, water favor, ocean currents and the like.

I understand that every year there is day by day analysis of what record will be smashed (or has been smashed) and whether there will be a BOE. I agree with the seriousness of these implications and the effects we are already witnesses around the globe.

However, if we look at 2012 when a ´perfect storm´ resulted in the current min. Arctic sea ice extent and compare this with for instance 2016. Yes the min. sea ice extent in 2016 was much higher (around 4 million km2), but there as already more open water during the period april till half july in 2016 then in 2012 (only in mid July of 2012 did the extent descrease in value in comparison to 2016). So my question would be to those that have more accumulated knowledge that I, has there been calculations on the effect that each day of open water has issues such as jet stream movement, water favor, ocean currents and the like?

And has this been expressed in some form? Perhaps km2 open water per day? Or accumulative open water during the year? Could taking the area of each of the seas be taken as a starting point.

Somehow looking at developments this year (2019) it is clear that every 1 km2 of open water that is added on a daily will start to absorb heat till it freezes over again (if it does) when winter arrives.

Appologies if the post is what long, but looking forward to feedback. Thank you Jeroen
 
<I've copied your question to a more appropriate thread; N.>
« Last Edit: April 05, 2019, 02:36:37 PM by Neven »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #514 on: April 05, 2019, 02:20:19 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,158,300 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,158,300    km2      
-711,089    km2   <   2010's average.
-454,922    k   <   2018
-962,606    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -22    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -6    k   loss
Central Seas__   -4    k   loss
Other Seas___   -12    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -5    k   loss
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -23    k   loss
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain

Area loss 22 k,  6 k more than the 2010's average loss of 16 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 7 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +6.0 today to around +2.5 over the next 10 days. The recent extreme +ve anomalies in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretched as far as the North Pole have moderated.

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. As +ve temp anomalies drop will extent loss also be moderate as it is on this day, or will it be cold enough for a refreeze in e.g. the Kara and Laptev seas?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Jontenoy

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #515 on: April 05, 2019, 03:55:57 PM »
Hi Ijgosse,

There are many ways to melt ice..... Heat from the air, how fast the air is moving (forced convection), adsorbtion of sunlight (albed of the ice surface) ,  salinity of surrounding water,  and most important, the heat arriving through the ocean currents. My guess is that the last one is the most important ( perhaps our learned colleagues could quantify all of them ?). Given the many factors, it becomes a multi-variable ill conditioned equation which is another way of saying anything can happen . Clear as mud !

ijgosse

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #516 on: April 05, 2019, 08:46:16 PM »
Hi Jontenoy,
you´re right about the multiple ways the ice is getting hit and that it under attack from different angle....soon to become mud....
cheers

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #517 on: April 06, 2019, 05:52:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 5th, 2019:
     13,090,953 km2, a drop of -40,921 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #518 on: April 06, 2019, 07:50:55 AM »
2019 is now 11 days in advance (April 16, 2018 had a lower value than extent yesterday). 2019 will probably keep its lowest position for the next days.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #519 on: April 06, 2019, 08:19:58 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,090,953 km2(April 5, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 7 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 41k, 0 k more than the average loss of 41 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,180k, 727 k (161%) greater than the average of 453k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 4.6% of the melting season done, with 161 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.66 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.48 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.275 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 7 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for at least 2 weeks longer.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +5.5 today to around +3 over the next 10 days.

Will extent loss also gradually moderate (or will it just keep on going, or be cold enough for a refreeze in e.g. the Kara and Laptev seas)?

ps: I have added 2016 (and 2017 for completeness) to the total extent graph as 2016 is mostly the front-runner for the next month or two.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #520 on: April 06, 2019, 02:32:31 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,127,860 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,127,860    km2      
-719,941    km2   <   2010's average.
-441,339    k   <   2018
-976,598    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -30    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -10    k   loss
Central Seas__    11    k   gain
Other Seas___   -32    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -32    k   loss

St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain

Area loss 30 k,  8 k more than the 2010's average loss of 22 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 8 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +5.2 today to around +2 over the next 10 days.  The recent extreme +ve anomalies in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretched as far as the North Pole have moderated. It looks like stronger warmth will return to the Bering / Chukchi seas and Baffin Bay.

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. As +ve temp anomalies drop will extent loss also be moderate as it is on this day, or will it be cold enough for a significant refreeze e.g. in the Kara and Laptev seas that has already started?
« Last Edit: April 06, 2019, 02:54:24 PM by gerontocrat »
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FishOutofWater

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #521 on: April 06, 2019, 08:10:15 PM »
Models almost always revert to mean temperatures over time... except the CFS which can lean persistently warm. The last ten days have been exceptionally warm so reversion towards the mean is very likely.

The ECMWF forecasts a strong flow of warm air from the Pacific through the Bering strait into the Arctic in the 6 to 10 day average. This will continue the sea ice melting on the Pacific and eastern Siberian sides of the Arctic.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #522 on: April 07, 2019, 05:59:57 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 6th, 2019:
     13,012,589 km2, a drop of -78,364 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Viggy

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #523 on: April 07, 2019, 07:33:29 AM »
~340k less than the previous record ... :o

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #524 on: April 07, 2019, 08:27:20 AM »
~340k less than the previous record ... :o
...and still ten to eleven days ahead of any other year since 1979 (2018 had a slightly lower value on April 17)
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #525 on: April 07, 2019, 09:22:49 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :13,012,589 km2(April 6, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 8 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 78k, 46 k more than the average loss of 32 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,259k, 774 k (160%) greater than the average of 485k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 4.9% of the melting season done, with 160 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.62 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.44 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.223 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 8 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for at least 2 weeks longer. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +5 today to around +2 over the next week.

Will extent loss also gradually moderate, or will it just keep on going, or be cold enough for a refreeze in e.g. the Kara and Laptev seas)?
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #526 on: April 07, 2019, 03:03:51 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,078,242 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,078,242    km2      
-745,696    km2   <   2010's average.
-450,288    k   <   2018
-1,010,742    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -49    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -23    k   loss
Central Seas__    17    k   gain
Other Seas___   -44    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -17    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -37    k   loss

St Lawrence___   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Area loss 49 k,  25 k more than the 2010's average loss of 24 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 9 days in a row.

Other Stuff
It looks like stronger warmth will return to the Bering / Chukchi seas and Baffin Bay.

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. As +ve temp anomalies drop will extent loss also be moderate as it is on this day, or will it be cold enough for a significant refreeze e.g. in the Kara and Laptev seas that has already started? After all, if not for the Okhotsk Sea ice falling to bits, area ice loss would be minimal.
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Jorge

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #527 on: April 07, 2019, 09:01:25 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :13,012,589 km2(April 6, 2019)
I think there is an error in your table of projections. In the last two lines (minimum and maximum) it doesn't take into account 2018 numbers.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #528 on: April 07, 2019, 09:59:33 PM »
I took the monthly extent value for March and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average March extent is now 15,28 M km². March 2019 had an average extent of 14,55 M km², which is (like it was in February 2019) 0,73 M km² less.
In March 2019 the anomaly is 0,33 M km² above the long-term linear trend (it also was above in Nov 18, Dec 18, Jan 19 and Feb 19), which calculated this March should have been at 14,22 M km². With the strong losses in the last week I expect that April 2019 will lie slightly below this linear trend line.

See attached graph.
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icefree

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #529 on: April 07, 2019, 11:12:19 PM »
From just glancing at the trend lines (total extent)
It looks as if the line will continue downward in at least as steep an incline as the rest of the years which will make 2019 the record lowest extent!
Also the developing positive feed backs and rising CO2 levels which have a lag effect are going to increasingly make their effects known and the exponential nature of the incipient ecological climate disaster should soon cause year after year after year declines in extent growing in magnitude until the BOE becomes a reality.
Increasing areas of open water will also accelerate the BOE which unless global warming is not such a serious crisis as it has been publicized to be is certain to be upon us in the near future.
To put it yet another way after starting the year without much divergence from the group of trend lines it appears that the melting ice has finally "Jumped the Shark"
I'm starting to take near term human extinction forecasts more seriously!

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #530 on: April 08, 2019, 05:51:46 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 7th, 2019:
     12,972,565 km2, a drop of -40,024 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)


2019 now below the 13M km2.
Almost for sure, 2019 April average will be the lowest April average on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #531 on: April 08, 2019, 06:43:21 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
Almost for sure, 2019 April average will be the lowest April average on record.
As of today (April 7th), 2019 April average is 13.14M km2, only 145K km2 above the lowest on record (2016: 12.99M km2). And today value of 12.97M km2 is already below the 12.99M km2.

If 2019 keeps the value of 12.97M km2 until April 30th, the 2019 April average will be 13.01M km2. But we know that extent will continue dropping on average, so it seems highly probable that 2019 will be the lowest on record.

It is also interesting that 2012 April average is 13.94M km2. It seems highly probable that 2019 will be below 12.94M km2, so 2019 April average will be more than one million km2 below 2012.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

El Cid

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #532 on: April 08, 2019, 07:21:29 AM »

It looks as if the line will continue downward in at least as steep an incline as the rest of the years which will make 2019 the record lowest extent!
...
I'm starting to take near term human extinction forecasts more seriously!

You'll come to see that the Arctic is out there to fool you. Noone in my experience can forecast, not even a single year but the next month either.

As for extinction, I don't believe in that. Humanity is quite versatile.

Wherestheice

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #533 on: April 08, 2019, 07:38:19 AM »

It looks as if the line will continue downward in at least as steep an incline as the rest of the years which will make 2019 the record lowest extent!
...
I'm starting to take near term human extinction forecasts more seriously!

You'll come to see that the Arctic is out there to fool you. Noone in my experience can forecast, not even a single year but the next month either.

As for extinction, I don't believe in that. Humanity is quite versatile.

Extinction is the rule
Survival is the exception
~ Carl Sagan
"When the ice goes..... F***

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #534 on: April 08, 2019, 08:13:57 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :12,972,565 km2(April 7, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 9 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 40k, 11 k more than the average loss of 29 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,299k, 785 k (153%) greater than the average of 513k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 5.2% of the melting season done, with 159 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.61 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.43 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.240 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 9 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for at least 2 weeks longer. Indeed, if daily extent loss continues at average 2019 will stay lowest to the end of the month. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +4.5 today to around +1 over the next week.

Will extent loss also gradually moderate, or will it just keep on going, or be cold enough for a refreeze in e.g. the Kara and Laptev seas)?
« Last Edit: April 08, 2019, 08:19:13 AM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #535 on: April 08, 2019, 08:30:03 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :13,012,589 km2(April 6, 2019)
I think there is an error in your table of projections. In the last two lines (minimum and maximum) it doesn't take into account 2018 numbers.
Well spotted. Thanks
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Rodius

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #536 on: April 08, 2019, 02:04:15 PM »
The last two days in nsidc.org has seen to very large drops of 0.087 and 0.097 respectively.
Are those numbers correct?

I know there is massive melt happening, but is it really that much?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #537 on: April 08, 2019, 02:58:41 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,037,345 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,037,345    km2      
-764,485    km2   <   2010's average.
-459,859    k   <   2018
-1,031,709    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -41    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -22    k   loss
Central Seas__    25    k   gain
Other Seas___   -44    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -15    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________    6    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -37    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area loss 41 k, 19 k more than the 2010's average loss of 22 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 10 days in a row.
All the peripheral seas lose area, all the central Arctic seas gain area.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +4.5 today to around +1 over the next week to 10 days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #538 on: April 08, 2019, 03:05:48 PM »
The last two days in nsidc.org has seen to very large drops of 0.087 and 0.097 respectively.
Are those numbers correct?

I know there is massive melt happening, but is it really that much?
Yep - 5 day trailing average daily extent, which irons out off odd burps in the daily data, confirms it.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #539 on: April 08, 2019, 05:04:21 PM »
The weather in the Okhotsk sea and Baffin Bay was exceptionally bad for sea ice. For weeks the ice in the Okhotsk was making the situation look better than it was because cold air outbreaks from Siberia persistently broke out over those waters in the winter and early spring. The spring warming there has caused the ice to melt rapidly, exposing the harsh reality on the Pacific side of the Arctic.

The drop in the Baffin bay was related to storms that brought strong warm easterly winds that drove ice away from the western shores of Greenland. This will have an impact in the coming weeks because these winds are strengthening the west Greenland current of warm salty Atlantic water into Baffin bay. In fact, the lack of an ice bridge in the Nares strait this winter has allowed a stronger than normal counter current of warm salty water to flow up the east side of the Nares strait at intermediate depths. Notice the salty water in the Nares at 100m in the map below.


Expect a warmer and saltier Baffin bay this summer than last summer and an earlier melt out.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #540 on: April 08, 2019, 06:30:51 PM »
Baffin Bay sea ice is already showing a fairly impressive area loss, some 2+ weeks ahead of average schedule.

A good chance the Okhotsk sea ice may well be more or less history before the end of the month.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #541 on: April 08, 2019, 08:03:55 PM »
The ice extent in the Okhotsk has rapidly dropped because it was thin and dispersed so it was very vulnerable to warm air and storm waves. Continuous flow through the Nares strait, active convection in the Labrador sea and a strong transport of ice down the west side of Baffin bay makes the ice in Baffin bay vulnerable to rapid melt out this year, because it hasn't built up much
thickness.

One subtle feature in the Arctic 100m salinity map in my previous post is that the water at 100m on the NE coast of Greenland is fresher this year than last year the same date. That means that not only has there been stronger export of sea ice out of the Fram strait, but there's also increased export of fresh water that was once stored in the Beaufort gyre. Moreover, there's an increasing amount of Atlantic water that has flowed in along the Siberian shelf margin. That Atlantic water will increase the likelihood of an early melt out along the Siberian continental shelf this summer.

bbr2314

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #542 on: April 08, 2019, 08:08:56 PM »
The ice extent in the Okhotsk has rapidly dropped because it was thin and dispersed so it was very vulnerable to warm air and storm waves. Continuous flow through the Nares strait, active convection in the Labrador sea and a strong transport of ice down the west side of Baffin bay makes the ice in Baffin bay vulnerable to rapid melt out this year, because it hasn't built up much
thickness.

One subtle feature in the Arctic 100m salinity map in my previous post is that the water at 100m on the NE coast of Greenland is fresher this year than last year the same date. That means that not only has there been stronger export of sea ice out of the Fram strait, but there's also increased export of fresh water that was once stored in the Beaufort gyre. Moreover, there's an increasing amount of Atlantic water that has flowed in along the Siberian shelf margin. That Atlantic water will increase the likelihood of an early melt out along the Siberian continental shelf this summer.
The temp anomalies across much of Eurasia but especially Siberia have been extreme this spring. Much worse than anything we saw in early 2018, and yet we still saw a very severe fire season last year. The ATL waters reaching the Siberian shelf will be met with plumes of black carbon from Siberia (accompanied by 30C+ heat waves into the Arctic proper). There are a multitude of factors that should combine this year for the earliest / most anomalous melt out of the Siberian Seas in the climate record (IMO).

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #543 on: April 09, 2019, 05:47:01 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 8th, 2019:
     12,990,137 km2, an increase of 17,572 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

miki

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #544 on: April 09, 2019, 06:15:57 AM »

April 8th, 2019:
     an increase of 17,572 km2.     

Is this due to a real small re-freeze, or is it just ice spread around by winds?

Wherestheice

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #545 on: April 09, 2019, 06:58:30 AM »

April 8th, 2019:
     an increase of 17,572 km2.     

Is this due to a real small re-freeze, or is it just ice spread around by winds?

Probably most of it is spread. The ice is breathing, but slower
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Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #546 on: April 09, 2019, 07:41:13 AM »

It looks as if the line will continue downward in at least as steep an incline as the rest of the years which will make 2019 the record lowest extent!
...
I'm starting to take near term human extinction forecasts more seriously!

You'll come to see that the Arctic is out there to fool you. Noone in my experience can forecast, not even a single year but the next month either.

As for extinction, I don't believe in that. Humanity is quite versatile.

Generally true, but as a permaculture practitioner, and generally my entire life, I've a good sense of patterns. While the scientists still minimize or claim no relation between ENSO and ASI, I believe there is fairly significant one. Ergo, I was able to predict new lows, near new lows in ASI in the 2016-18 time frame due to the EN beginning in 2015.

Since then, I have seen some research showing warm air and moisture from the Pacific affects the ASI - which is exactly what my hypothesis was: EN's lead to a loading of heat into the Arctic, and it can take time, so within two years of an EN (no correlation with LN), there are typically new lows or near new lows.

We all know there were tons of daily (monthy?) records for extent, area over the last couple of years, particularly in the non-peak months, which I think we all assume has some effect on what I refer to as pre-conditioning.

From RealClimate, Aug, 2015:

Quote
Here is what I found going all the way back to the beginning of ASIE decline @ 1953-ish.

EN ’51 – ’54 = inception of ASI Extent decline.
EN ’57 – ’59 = Near New Low/New Low
EN ’65 – ’66 = Near New Low/New Low
EN ’68 – ’70 = New Low
EN ’72 – ’73 = possible correlation, some delay
EN ’76 – ’78 = New Low
EN ’79 – ’80 = New Low
EN ’82 – ’83 = New Low
EN ’86 – ’88 = New Low (’89,’90)
EN ’94 – ’95 = New Low
EN ’97 – ’98 = Drop from Previous (?)
EN ’04 – ’05 = Near New Low/New Low
EN ’04 – ’05/’06 – ’07 = New Low
EN ’09 – ’10 = New Low (’10, ’12)
EN ’15 – ’16 = New Low ’16,’17?...

...the hypothesis is more a 1 to 2 year lag, not only one. Looking at only one year wouldn’t find it...

Quote
Hopefully someone [a scientist] will look at it on the longer 2 year time frame added to the 1 year stuff already done, and update it.

I sent this stuff to Mark Serreze and he found it interesting, but said it wasn't his thing. Then this from last year:

Quote
...found that the strong global and Arctic changes depended on the magnitude of water vapor transfer from the mid-latitude oceans to the Arctic. When warm moist air is carried poleward towards the Arctic, it can lead to more low-lying clouds that act like a blanket, trapping warmth near the surface. The poleward movement of heat and moisture drive the Arctic's sea-ice retreat and low-cloud formation, amplifying Arctic warming.

The so-called ice-albedo feedback causes retreating ice and snow to lead to ever greater warming through increasing absorption of solar energy on darker surfaces.

If true for air and moisture, why not water flows, and over longer time periods, of course, and would EN's not enhance this effect?

Not the first time I've been ahead of the curve. I know eff all about the maths and the innards of the models and theories and details of what does what, which many of you do quite well, but I know patterns.

For your consideration.

Cheers

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #547 on: April 09, 2019, 08:41:46 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 12,990,137 km2(April 8, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 10 days in a row.
- Extent gain on this day 18k, a difference of 45k from the average loss of 27 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,281k, 740 k (137%) greater than the average of 540k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 5.5% of the melting season done, with 158 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.65 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.47 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.155 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 10 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for at least 2 weeks longer. Indeed, if daily extent loss continues at average 2019 will stay lowest to the end of the month. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +4.2 today to around +1 over the next week. Will extent loss stall?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #548 on: April 09, 2019, 02:26:58 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,025,532 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,025,532    km2      
-753,292    km2   <   2010's average.
-437,524    k   <   2018
-1,015,347    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -12    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas__    32    k   gain
Other Seas___   -48    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    9    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -37    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Area loss 12 k, 11 k less than the 2010's average loss of 23 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 11 days in a row.
The Okhotsk, St Lawrence and Hudson seas lose area, all the otherl Arctic seas gain area.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +4.2 today to around +1 over the next week to 10 days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #549 on: April 09, 2019, 09:14:18 PM »
Much excitement as for the last 10 days extent at a new low for the day. Perhaps a good time to be reminded that this is but a brief moment in the long satellite record.

The graph attached looks back 365 days for each day's average reading. You can see that the 2012 record low did not produce a record 365 day average record low, the reason being that before and after that 2012 record low, extent was quite high.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)