2019 sea ice area and extent data

[Stephan]

This graph shows how outstanding 2016 was. Looking at the minima animation just posted by uniquorn (Reply#1) in the "ice edge at minimum poll" 2016 looked worst, although it was not at the lowest minimum ever.

[uniquorn]

The graph attached looks back 365 days for each day's average reading.<>

I wonder what the NSIDC 365day area chart looks like overlaid onto that.....

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 9^th, 2019:
     13,005,909 km², an increase of 15,772 km².
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT as at 09 Apr 2019:-  13,005,909 km2

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 11 days in a row.
- Extent gain on this day 16k, a difference of 47k from the average loss of 31 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,265k, 693 k (121%) greater than the average of 571k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 5.8% of the melting season done, with 157 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.7 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.52 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.106 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 11 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for at least 2 weeks longer. Indeed, if daily extent loss resumes daily losses,  2019 will likely stay lowest to the end of the month. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +3.5 today to around zero over the next week. Will extent loss continue to stall?

[FishOutofWater]

There is going to continue to be anomalous heat in the Arctic in a week. The Atlantic side will be hard hit by warm air advection into the Arctic. There is a powerful blocking high over Scandinavia that is very persistent. It will advect large amounts of heat northwards from the Atlantic to the Arctic both in the atmosphere and by enhancing the flow of the Norwegian current.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 9 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,021,747 km2

Total Area           12,021,747    km2       -733,859    km2   <   2010's average. -423,465    k   <   2018 -985,737    k   <   2000's average.           Total gain/loss   -4    k   loss Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain Central Seas__    28    k   gain Other Seas___   -39    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    4    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss Greenland____    1    k   gain Barents ______    5    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________    3    k   gain East Siberian__    1    k   gain Central Arctic_    2    k   gain           Kara_________    10    k   gain Laptev_______    4    k   gain Chukchi______    6    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -29    k   loss St Lawrence___   -9    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Area loss 4 k, 19 k less than the 2010's average loss of 23 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 12 days in a row.
The Okhotsk, St Lawrence / Baffin, and Hudson seas lose area, all the other Arctic seas gain area.(I think when warmth and southerly winds reach the Baffin, usually the St Lawrence gets clobbered on the way).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +3.5 today to around zero over the next week to 10 days. A sign of below average area losses for some time to come?

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 10^th, 2019:
     13,014,792 km², an increase of 8,883 km².
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 13,014,792 km2（April 10, 2019）

3 days of extent gains - not that unbusual for this time of year (see next post).

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 12 days in a row.
- Extent gain on this day 9k, a difference of 30k from the average loss of 21 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,256k, 664 k (112%) greater than the average of 592k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 6.0% of the melting season done, with 156 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.73 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.55 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.082 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 12 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for at least 1 week longer. Indeed, if daily extent loss resumes daily losses,  2019 will likely stay lowest for 2 weeks longer. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +3 today to around +1 over the next week. Will extent loss continue to stall?

[gerontocrat]

A look at daily change at this time of year in recent years, showing what is to me the surprising frequency of daily gains.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 10 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,023,648 km2

Total Area           12,023,648    km2       -709,141    km2   <   2010's average. -409,291    k   <   2018 -947,606    k   <   2000's average.           Total gain/loss    2    k   gain Peripheral Seas    10    k   gain Central Seas__    20    k   gain Other Seas___   -28    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    5    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss Greenland____    2    k   gain Barents ______    6    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss CAA_________    3    k   gain East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_    3    k   gain           Kara_________    8    k   gain Laptev_______    2    k   gain Chukchi______    5    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -21    k   loss St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area GAIN 2 k, a variation of 25 k from the 2010's average loss of 23 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 13 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +3 today to around +1 over the next week to 10 days. A sign of below average area losses or even area gains for some time to come?

[FishOutofWater]

A trend towards northerly winds in the Bering strait should stop the losses in the Beaufort, Chukchi and Bering seas for the next ten days or so. Some small increases are possible in the Bering sea.

The Atlantic side, however, will see continued blocking, forecast to intensify, over Scandinavia, which will intensify the flow of warm water and warm air from the Atlantic into the Barents and Kara seas over the next ten days. There will a see-saw, as there often is in the Arctic tipping towards ice loss on the Atlantic side and ice favorable conditions on the Pacific side over the next 10 days.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 11^th, 2019:
     12,989,958 km², a drop of -24,834 km².
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  12,989,958 km2（April 11, 2019）

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 13 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 25k, 2  k less than the average loss of 27 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,281k, 661 k (107%) greater than the average of 620k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 6.3% of the melting season done, with 155 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.73 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.55 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.046 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 13 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for about 1 week longer. If daily extent loss resumes average daily losses,  2019 will likely stay lowest for 2 weeks longer. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +2 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 11 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,040,541 km2

Total Area           12,040,541    km2       -666,632    km2   <   2010's average. -374,359    k   <   2018 -893,080    k   <   2000's average.           Total gain/loss    17    k   gain Peripheral Seas    17    k   gain Central Seas__    18    k   gain Other Seas___   -18    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    5    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss Greenland____    4    k   gain Barents ______    11    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_    4    k   gain           Kara_________    10    k   gain Laptev_______    1    k   gain Chukchi______    4    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -15    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss

Area GAIN 17 k, a variation of 43 k from the 2010's average loss of 26 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 14 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +2 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days. A sign of below average area losses or even area gains for some time to come?

[FishOutofWater]

I would caution that the use of bulk averages for the arctic can be misleading. Average temperatures are reverting to the mean in both the GFS and ECMWF models but both models are doing it by establishing a powerful block over Scandinavia and deep cold low pressure over the Barents and Kara seas. This weather pattern will advect warm water into the Kara sea and will subsequently advect warm air over the Arctic from central Siberia. This pattern will increase the export of ice out of the Fram strait.

Of course, we shouldn't put much weight on forecasts over 5 days, but these blocking patterns have been going on for many months since early winter so we should be aware of the strong effects of blocking over Scandinavia and Alaska on sea ice.

[psymmo7]

The open water caused by ice fragmentation to the West of Barrow (Utqiaġvik)

is now clearly visible
http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/webcam-uaf-barrow-seaice-images/current/image

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 12^th, 2019:
     12,945,392 km², a drop of -44,566 km².
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-12,945,392 km2（April 12, 2019）

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 14 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 45k, 16 k more than the average loss of 29 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,326k, 677 k (104%) greater than the average of 649k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 6.6% of the melting season done, with 154 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.71 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.53 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.079 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 14 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for about 1 week longer. If daily extent loss has resumed average or more than average daily losses,  2019 will likely stay lowest for 2 weeks longer. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +2.5 today to around +0.5 over the next week to 10 days.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 12 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,055,660 km2

Total Area           12,055,660    km2       -624,357    km2   <   2010's average. -343,011    k   <   2018 -835,210    k   <   2000's average.           Total gain/loss    15    k   gain Peripheral Seas    16    k   gain Central Seas__    15    k   gain Other Seas___   -16    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    2    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss Greenland____    5    k   gain Barents ______    12    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_    2    k   gain           Kara_________    9    k   gain Laptev_______    4    k   gain Chukchi______    2    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -13    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss

Area GAIN 15 k, a variation of 42 k from the 2010's average loss of 27 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 15 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +2.5 today to around +0.5 over the next week to 10 days. There appear to be no really extreme +ve temperature anomalies on the horizon.  A sign of below average area losses or even area gains for some time to come? Who knows.

[gerontocrat]

The recovery in sea ice area in the Chukchi, Kara and Laptev Seas is quite impressive.
For consistent gradual sea ice area loss one goes to Baffin Bay.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 13^th, 2019:
     12,933,264 km², a drop of -12,128 km².
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,933,264 km2（April 13, 2019）

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 15 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 12k, 15 k less than the average loss of 27 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,338k, 662 k (98%) greater than the average of 676k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 6.8% of the melting season done, with 153 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.73 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.55 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.079 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 15 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for about 1 week longer. If daily extent loss has resumed average or more than average daily losses,  2019 will likely stay lowest for 2 weeks longer. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +2 today to around +1 over the next week to 10 days.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 13 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,051,890 km2

Total Area           12,051,890    km2       -594,935    km2   <   2010's average. -329,848    k   <   2018 -794,722    k   <   2000's average.           Total gain/loss   -4    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -2    k   loss Central Seas__    10    k   gain Other Seas___   -12    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss Greenland____    1    k   gain Barents ______    7    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss CAA_________   -0    k   loss East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_    2    k   gain           Kara_________    9    k   gain Laptev_______    5    k   gain Chukchi______   -0    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -11    k   loss St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area loss 4 k, a variation of 27 k from the 2010's average loss of 33 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 16 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +2 today to around +1 over the next week to 10 days. There appear to be no really extreme +ve temperature anomalies on the horizon, although southerly winds will be heading into the Barents for a few days.  A sign of below average area losses or even area gains for some time to come? Who knows.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 14^th, 2019:
     12,895,918 km², a drop of -37,346 km².
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,895,918 km2（April 14, 2019）

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 16 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 37k, 7 k more than the average loss of 30 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,375k, 669 k (95%) greater than the average of 706k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 7.1% of the melting season done, with 152 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.72 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.54 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.158 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 15 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for about 1 week longer. If daily extent loss has resumed average or more than average daily losses,  2019 will likely stay lowest for 2 weeks longer. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +2 today to around +0.5 over the next week to 10 days. In the next 7 days a strong +ve anomaly comes from the mid-Atlantic heading north up into the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of |Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 14 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,036,627 km2

Total Area           12,036,627    km2       -575,219    km2   <   2010's average. -322,493    k   <   2018 -769,813    k   <   2000's average.           Total gain/loss   -15    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss Central Seas__    9    k   gain Other Seas___   -16    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -0    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss Greenland____   -2    k   loss Barents ______    5    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    0    k   gain Central Arctic_    2    k   gain           Kara_________    8    k   gain Laptev_______    4    k   gain Chukchi______    1    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -13    k   loss St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area loss 15 k, 20 k less than the 2010's average loss of 35 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 17 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +2 today to around +0.5 over the next week to 10 days. In the next 7 days a strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly comes from the mid-Atlantic heading north up into the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of |Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 15^th, 2019:
     12,821,542 km², a drop of -74,376 km².
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

P.S. 2016-2019: The four lowest years on record (today). Even that is not a monthly average, it is a proof of the general weakness on the last four years.

[Ktb]

Bimonthly BOE evaluation.

March 31 extent was 13,375,281 km^2. Requiring average daily drops of -74,550 km^2 for a BOE to occur.

Extent loss has slowed considerably over the past 8-9 days, although it did pick back up today. Total extent loss in April thus far is -553,639 km^2. And total extent loss so far this season is -1,449,479 km^2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -42,632 km^2.

So far in the month of April, we have averaged a slower rate of -36,909 km^2 per day. If April ended today, this would be extremely middle of the pack (6th place out of 13 --- counting 2007 onward). Although, we have the entire latter half of the month remaining.

As of April 15th, extent was 12,821,642 km^2, and with on average 151 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -78,289 km^2.

[Rodius]

Bimonthly BOE evaluation.

March 31 extent was 13,375,281 km^2. Requiring average daily drops of -74,550 km^2 for a BOE to occur.

Extent loss has slowed considerably over the past 8-9 days, although it did pick back up today. Total extent loss in April thus far is -553,639 km^2. And total extent loss so far this season is -1,449,479 km^2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -42,632 km^2.

So far in the month of April, we have averaged a slower rate of -36,909 km^2 per day. If April ended today, this would be extremely middle of the pack (6th place out of 13 --- counting 2007 onward). Although, we have the entire latter half of the month remaining.

As of April 15th, extent was 12,821,642 km^2, and with on average 151 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -78,289 km^2.

These numbers are interesting, but without a comparison it is difficult to know what is significant.
For example, if I knew the average drop from now to minimum for 2012, at least it would help get my head around what is required.

So far, while a BOE is still unlikely this year, given an average melt from now on brings it close to 2012, then a decent, well timed storm in July or August could potentially do the job.

Anyway, is it possible to have 2012 average melt to minimum in the column to help with comparisons?

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,821,542 km2（April 15, 2019）

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 17 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 74k, 40 k more than the average loss of 34 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,450k, 710 k (96%) greater than the average of 740k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 7.5% of the melting season done, with 151 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.68 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.50 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.229 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 17 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for 1 week longer as longer as extent loss is above zero. On 22nd April 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong +ve anomaly comes from the mid-Atlantic into the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?

[Gray-Wolf]

As far as a B.O.E. is concerned do we not expect to see melt alter as we approach such an event?

By the time we are down to the last dregs they will no doubt be surrounded by warmed waters and all be of a similar remnant thickness?

I imagine the end coming very fast when it does?

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 15 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,019,748 km2

Total Area           12,019,748    km2       -562,413    km2   <   2010's average. -320,658    k   <   2018 -747,425    k   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change   -17    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss Central Seas__    11    k   gain Other Seas___   -12    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -2    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss Greenland____   -6    k   loss Barents ______    1    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__    1    k   gain Central Arctic_    1    k   gain           Kara_________    11    k   gain Laptev_______    2    k   gain Chukchi______    3    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -14    k   loss St Lawrence___    3    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Area loss 17 k, 13 k less than the 2010's average loss of 30 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 18 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong +ve anomaly comes from the mid-Atlantic into the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?

[Ktb]

These numbers are interesting, but without a comparison it is difficult to know what is significant.
For example, if I knew the average drop from now to minimum for 2012, at least it would help get my head around what is required.

So far, while a BOE is still unlikely this year, given an average melt from now on brings it close to 2012, then a decent, well timed storm in July or August could potentially do the job.

Anyway, is it possible to have 2012 average melt to minimum in the column to help with comparisons?

I have most of what you ask for ready to go, but was saving it for the April 30th update because I don't have mid-month values calculated. Other pieces I don't have made yet, but with the data I already have it would be easy to complete what you are requesting.

[Stephan]

I analysed the ice area of the individual seas from gerontocrat's actual table from April 1 to April 15. Only four seas, all of them in the periphery, show considerable losses (Okhotsk, St. Lawrence, Baffin and Bering). All other seas are constant or increase slightly. From this point of view the melting season has not really begun?!?

[Ktb]

From April 1 to 2012's minimum on September 16th, 2012 had an average daily loss of -67,033 km^2. In order to have been bumped from record low to record low with BOE, 2012 would have needed an additional loss of -12,885 km^2 per day for those 169 days (daily drop of -79,918 km^2).

In comparison, for a BOE to occur this year, 2019 required a drop of -74,550 km^2 from April 1 to the minimum (average Sept 13). Wowee, we were slightly ahead of 2012 as of April 1 --- but we started April 1.155 million km^2 higher lower than 2012, so this is to be expected.


Hindsight lets us look at attachment 2 and realize that 2018 is so low comparatively because of how late the minimum was (September 21), combined with the low starting extent of that year.

Attachment 1 is the actual daily average ice loss
Attachment 2 is what would have been necessary for the BOE

[magnamentis]

- as far as i can see we were starting lower and not higher than 2012

- it's totally normal that at this time of the year more or less (except some days with warm air
. intrusions) only the periphery is melting "significantly.

- melting season begins obviously always in the periphery and has begun once the maximum has
. been reached and the ice coverage is getting less as long as it remains below sea-ice maximum
. of ta given year.

[Rodius]

These numbers are interesting, but without a comparison it is difficult to know what is significant.
For example, if I knew the average drop from now to minimum for 2012, at least it would help get my head around what is required.

So far, while a BOE is still unlikely this year, given an average melt from now on brings it close to 2012, then a decent, well timed storm in July or August could potentially do the job.

Anyway, is it possible to have 2012 average melt to minimum in the column to help with comparisons?

I have most of what you ask for ready to go, but was saving it for the April 30th update because I don't have mid-month values calculated. Other pieces I don't have made yet, but with the data I already have it would be easy to complete what you are requesting.

Thank you.
It will make the numbers more meaningful for me and help me know when to start really, really stressing rather than just stressing

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 16^th, 2019:
     12,795,927 km², a drop of -25,615 km².
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,795,927 km2（April 16, 2019）

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 18 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 26k, 8 k less than the average loss of 34 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,475k, 701 k (91%) greater than the average of 774k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 7.8% of the melting season done, with 150 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.69 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.51 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.270 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 18 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for a few days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong +ve anomaly is in the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 16 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,988,742 km2

Total Area           11,988,742    km2       -563,488    km2   <   2010's average. -333,003    k   <   2018 -737,847    k   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change   -31    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -22    k   loss Central Seas__    1    k   gain Other Seas___   -10    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -1    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss Greenland____   -11    k   loss Barents ______   -7    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__   -2    k   loss Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss           Kara_________    8    k   gain Laptev_______    1    k   gain Chukchi______    4    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -16    k   loss St Lawrence___    4    k   gain Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain

Area loss 31 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 30 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 19 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong +ve anomaly is in the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?

ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the year to watch for the next two months.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Do you happen to know what time of day https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent updates (Eastern Time Zone)? Or is it whenever it gets around to it?

[gerontocrat]

Do you happen to know what time of day https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent updates (Eastern Time Zone)? Or is it whenever it gets around to it?

They say they update at around 3 a.m. GMT, 4 a.m. BST , which is, of course, 11 pm USA Eastern Daylight Time the day before. (That dateline twixt Japan and the USA has much to answer for.).
Often they are a bit late and stop Juan going to bed.

[oren]

Juan updates it right about when it updates at ADS/NIPR.

[Tom_Mazanec]

<snip, on topic, please, and no unnecessary references to religious anecdotes; N.>

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 17^th, 2019:
     12,756,648 km², a drop of -39,279 km².
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

I am going to be traveling from April 18^th to April 21^st. I will try to post the ADS NIPR data, but I am not sure that I will have a good internet connection. Any delay, please anyone feel free to post the data.

[b_lumenkraft]

I am going to be traveling

Have a very nice trip Juan.

[Rod]

Have a nice trip Juan!   I will miss seeing your daily reports!  I hope you are going on vacation and not just traveling for work.  Either way, have a good time. 

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,756,648 km2（April 17, 2019）

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 19 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 39k, 4 k less than the average loss of 43 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,514k, 697 k (85%) greater than the average of 817k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 8.3% of the melting season done, with 149 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.69 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.51 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.270 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 19 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for a few days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly is in the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 17 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,945,460 km2

Total Area           11,945,460    km2       -575,432    km2   <   2010's average. -337,572    k   <   2018 -742,731    k   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change   -43    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -26    k   loss Central Seas__    0    k   gain Other Seas___   -17    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    2    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain Greenland____   -15    k   loss Barents ______   -14    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__   -2    k   loss Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss           Kara_________    6    k   gain Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Chukchi______    4    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -18    k   loss St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Area loss 43 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average loss of 31 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 20 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly is in the Atlantic Front. This is already apparent in strong area loss in the Barents and Greenland Seas in the last 2 days.

Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average (as is area loss), while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?

ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the year to watch for the next two months.

[wdmn]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 18th, 2019:
     12,693,470 km2, a drop of -63,178 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.