JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,603,699 km2(April 20, 2019)
- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 22 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 49k, 16 k more than the average loss of 33 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,667k, 747 k (82%) greater than the average of 920k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 9.3% of the melting season done, with 146 days to average date of minimum (13 September)
The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.64 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.46 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.328 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.
For the last 22 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for 5 days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. Average declines would keep 2019 at lowest until the end of the month.
On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses in May and June.
Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from around Zero and +2.5 over the next week to 10 days. The current strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly in the Atlantic Front will wane. Elsewhere during this time the temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea, the Pacific half of the CAB and Baffin Bay look to be above average, while parts of the Western and Southern parts of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline to continue?
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