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b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #600 on: April 19, 2019, 06:33:31 AM »
Thanks for taking it wdmn! :)

wdmn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #601 on: April 19, 2019, 06:38:23 AM »
A scanty substitute, but nourishment nevertheless.  ;)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #602 on: April 19, 2019, 08:58:16 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,693,470 km2(April 18, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 20 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 63k, 24 k more than the average loss of 39 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,578k, 721 k (84%) greater than the average of 857k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 8.7% of the melting season done, with 148 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.67 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.49 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.271 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 20 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for 8 days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. Modest declines would keep 2019 at lowest at least until the end of the month.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses in May and June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 and  +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly is in the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #603 on: April 19, 2019, 09:17:03 AM »
Here comes into view the incredible 2016 early cliff, dropping 2.5M km2 over the span of 6 weeks (Apr 18th - May 30th) despite its low starting point. I really hope 2019 doesn't repeat that performance.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #604 on: April 19, 2019, 03:30:43 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,900,731 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,900,731    km2      
-592,983    km2   <   2010's average.
-346,278    k   <   2018
-754,510    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -45    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -21    k   loss
Central Seas__   -2    k   loss
Other Seas___   -22    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____   -15    k   loss
Barents ______   -15    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -17    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss

Area loss 45 k, 18 k more than the 2010's average loss of 27 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 21 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 and  +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly is in the Atlantic Front. This is already apparent in strong area loss in the Barents and Greenland Seas in the last 3 days.

Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average (as is area loss), while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?

ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the year to watch for the next two months.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

wdmn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #605 on: April 20, 2019, 05:43:46 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 19th, 2019:
     12,652,423 km2, a drop of -41,047 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #606 on: April 20, 2019, 06:26:59 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,652,423 km2(April 19, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 21 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 41k, 11 k more than the average loss of 30 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,619k, 732 k (83%) greater than the average of 887k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 9.0% of the melting season done, with 147 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.66 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.48 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.336 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 21 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for 5 days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. Modest declines would keep 2019 at lowest until the end of the month.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses in May and June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +2.5 and  +0.5 over the next week to 10 days. At various times will be strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly in the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline to continue?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #607 on: April 20, 2019, 12:46:15 PM »
Here comes into view the incredible 2016 early cliff, dropping 2.5M km2 over the span of 6 weeks (Apr 18th - May 30th) despite its low starting point. I really hope 2019 doesn't repeat that performance.

What causes such cliffs? Is it warm air masses, or something else? Could we see such a cliff coming in advance?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #608 on: April 20, 2019, 01:28:35 PM »
Here comes into view the incredible 2016 early cliff, dropping 2.5M km2 over the span of 6 weeks (Apr 18th - May 30th) despite its low starting point. I really hope 2019 doesn't repeat that performance.

What causes such cliffs? Is it warm air masses, or something else? Could we see such a cliff coming in advance?
In 2016 the open water due to wind drift in Beaufort reached a unprecedented extent during May. And iirc Barents melted  soon that year.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #609 on: April 20, 2019, 01:59:06 PM »
Curious as to what causes the gentle slope upward in May for average extent losses. Is this because the peripheral seas have melted out and it takes a while for the central arctic ice to kick in?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #610 on: April 20, 2019, 02:33:46 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,853,501 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,853,501    km2      
-1,126,424    km2   <   2010's average.
-606,676    k   <   2018
-1,486,553    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -47    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -18    k   loss
Central Seas__   -11    k   loss
Other Seas___   -18    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____   -14    k   loss
Barents ______   -17    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -17    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area loss 47 k, 16 k more than the 2010's average loss of 31 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 22 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +2.5 and  +0.5 over the next week to 10 days. At various times will be strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly in the Atlantic Front. This is already apparent in strong area loss in the Barents and Greenland Seas in the last 4 days.

Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average (as is area loss), while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?
________________________________________________________________
ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the year to watch for the next two months.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #611 on: April 20, 2019, 03:05:43 PM »
Curious as to what causes the gentle slope upward in May for average extent losses. Is this because the peripheral seas have melted out and it takes a while for the central arctic ice to kick in?
I agree with that, the Arctic proper is well confined and takes a time for the perimeter of ice to start shrinking after most of outer seas have already melted out, or in their way.

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #612 on: April 20, 2019, 03:06:59 PM »
2016 early opening was an outlier

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #613 on: April 20, 2019, 06:34:32 PM »
Curious as to what causes the gentle slope upward in May for average extent losses. Is this because the peripheral seas have melted out and it takes a while for the central arctic ice to kick in?

most probably exactly what you assume, at least i think so too ;)

Niall Dollard

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #614 on: April 21, 2019, 12:12:44 AM »

In 2016 the open water due to wind drift in Beaufort reached a unprecedented extent during May. And iirc Barents melted  soon that year.

+ Look at the NH snow cover extent anomalies from February to June 2016. Low albedo.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #615 on: April 21, 2019, 06:17:06 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,603,699 km2(April 20, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 22 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 49k, 16 k more than the average loss of 33 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,667k, 747 k (82%) greater than the average of 920k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 9.3% of the melting season done, with 146 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.64 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.46 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.328 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 22 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for 5 days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. Average declines would keep 2019 at lowest until the end of the month.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses in May and June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from around Zero and  +2.5 over the next week to 10 days. The current strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly in the Atlantic Front will wane. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea, the Pacific half of the CAB and Baffin Bay look to be above average, while parts of the Western and Southern parts of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline to continue?
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #616 on: April 21, 2019, 02:26:11 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,806,364 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,806,364    km2      
-575,244    km2   <   2010's average.
-308,623    k   <   2018
-744,207    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -47    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas__   -11    k   loss
Other Seas___   -28    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    12    k   gain
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -17    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -15    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss

Area loss 47 k, 11 k more than the 2010's average loss of 36 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 23 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from around Zero and  +2.5 over the next week to 10 days. The current strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly in the Atlantic Front will wane. This is already apparent in strong area loss in the Barents and Greenland Seas in the last 5 days.

Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea, the Pacific half of the CAB  looks to be above average, while parts of the Western and Southern parts of Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline to continue?

Worthy of note is that on this day Arctic Sea Ice Area is 0.575 million km2 less than the 2010's average for this date. An area twice the size of the UK of open water, as opposed to ice covered this early in the melting season, must have some effect on the weather and ocean warming and currents.
________________________________________________________________
ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the obvious year to watch to compare with 2019 for the next two months.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Ktb

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #617 on: April 21, 2019, 06:36:51 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 20th, 2019:
     12,603,699 km2, a drop of -48,724 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #618 on: April 22, 2019, 05:58:10 AM »
Thank you wdmn, Ktb and of course, Gerontocrat, for taking care of posting the data while I was traveling!  :)
 
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 21th, 2019:
     12,594,669 km2, a small drop of -9,030 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #619 on: April 22, 2019, 06:28:26 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Will 2019 stay as the lowest on record for the whole April?
Or will 2016 become the lowest on record on the following days?
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #620 on: April 22, 2019, 07:41:43 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,594,669 km2(April 21, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 23 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 9k, 13 k less than the average loss of 22 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,676k, 734 k (78%) greater than the average of 943k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 9.5% of the melting season done, with 145 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.66 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.48 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.320 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 23 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for 4 days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. Average declines would keep 2019 at lowest until at least the end of the month. However, on 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses in May and June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from around Zero and  +2.5 over the next week to 10 days. The current +ve anomaly in the Atlantic Front is waning. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea, the Pacific half of the CAB and Baffin Bay look to be above average, while parts of the Western and Southern parts of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline to continue, or below average extent loss to set in?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #621 on: April 22, 2019, 04:28:44 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,770,327 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,770,327    km2      
-578,080    km2   <   2010's average.
-322,497    k   <   2018
-751,242    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -36    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    0    k   gain
Central Seas__   -3    k   loss
Other Seas___   -34    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -15    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -16    k   loss

Area loss 36 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average loss of 37 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 24 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from around Zero and  +2.5 over the next week to 10 days. The current +ve anomaly in the Atlantic Front is waning.  This is already apparent in the reduction in strong area loss in the Barents and Greenland Seas.

Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea, the Pacific half of the CAB  looks to be above average, while parts of the Western and Southern parts of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time, already apparent in area loss in the last 2 days. It looks as if Baffin Bay and the south of the Greenland Sea may become warmer after a few days more of cold. (Watch out for a  Greenland melt before the end of the month?)

Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline to continue?

________________________________________________________________
ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the obvious year to watch to compare with 2019 for the next two months.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #622 on: April 23, 2019, 06:01:22 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 22nd, 2019:
     12,586,843 km2, a small drop of -7,826 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #623 on: April 23, 2019, 08:37:09 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,586,843 km2(April 22, 2019)

Extent loss has basically stalled in  the last 2 days.

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 24 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 8k, 31 k less than the average loss of 39 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,684k, 703 k (72%) greater than the average of 982k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 9.9% of the melting season done, with 144 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.69 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.51 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.263 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 24 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for 3 days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. Average declines would keep 2019 at lowest until at least the end of the month. However, on 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses in May and June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually increase from around +1 to well over +3 degrees over the next week to 10 days. There will be strong +ve anomalies over most parts of the Arctic at various times. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline to continue, or below average extent loss to set in?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Viggy

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #624 on: April 23, 2019, 11:41:36 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Will 2019 stay as the lowest on record for the whole April?
Or will 2016 become the lowest on record on the following days?

If the GFS/Euro forecasts hold for the next 8 days, that extreme heat event is going to kill almost all Okhotsk and Bering sea ice. That's 400,000 km2 by itself, which would have us atleast 100k lower than 2016.

I say 2019 holds easy to the end of April. Worse case, we add to the lead over 2016.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #625 on: April 23, 2019, 03:39:22 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,739,903 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,739,903    km2      
-573,354    km2   <   2010's average.
-328,890    k   <   2018
-752,764    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -30    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__   -12    k   loss
Other Seas___   -24    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -12    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss

Area loss 30 k, 8 k less than the 2010's average loss of 38 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 25 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually increase from around +1 to well over +3 degrees over the next week to 10 days. There will be strong +ve anomalies over most parts of the Arctic at various times.
Total area is closing in on 2016. As the area data is a 5 day trailing average, even if a major blast of warmth hits the Pacific Gateway in the next few days, it is likely that 2019 area data will blip up to more than 2016 in the next few days before stronger ice loss kicks in.

To remember is that on average melt to date is just under 10% of the total for the season. Caveat the Perils of Projections.

________________________________________________________________
ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the obvious year to watch to compare with 2019 for the next two months.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #626 on: April 24, 2019, 05:48:05 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 23nd, 2019:
     12,614,573 km2, an increase of 27,730 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #627 on: April 24, 2019, 11:00:37 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,586,843 km2(April 22, 2019)

Extent loss has switched to gain after basically stalling in the 2 days before. Not that unusual (see next post).

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 25 days in a row.
- Extent gain on this day 28k, a difference of 84 k from the average loss of 56 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,657k, 620 k (60%) greater than the average of 1037k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 10.5% of the melting season done, with 143 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.77 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.59 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.120 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 25 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for just one day longer as long as extent loss is above zero. However, on 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses from now until June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually increase from around +1 to well over +3 degrees over the next week to 10 days. There will be strong +ve anomalies over most parts of the Arctic at various times, including above zero temperatures from Monday in well into the Chukchi Sea. Sea ice decline to accelerate over the 10 day period?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #628 on: April 24, 2019, 11:24:23 AM »
Attached is an extract from a table of daily changes in JAXA sea ice extent in recent years at this time of year. It shows occasional daily extent gains are not unknown at this time of year, though a gain of 28k is unusual.

From what I have read this gain is probably due mostly to ice movement. As ice gets thinner over the years it is much more mobile?
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #629 on: April 24, 2019, 03:13:55 PM »
According to NSIDC both Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice extent are at record low levels today.
I wonder how long it is since this last occurred
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #630 on: April 24, 2019, 03:18:17 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,707,041 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,707,041    km2      
-570,385    km2   <   2010's average.
-325,472    k   <   2018
-759,581    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -33    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas__   -23    k   loss
Other Seas___   -16    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss

Area loss 33 k, 5 k less than the 2010's average loss of 38 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 26 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually increase from around +1 to well over +3 degrees over the next week to 10 days. There will be strong +ve anomalies over most parts of the Arctic at various times, including above zero temperatures from Monday well into the Chukchi Sea and possibly the CAB .

But at the moment total area is closing in on 2016 that was in strong decline at this time. As the area data is a 5 day trailing average, even if a major blast of warmth hits the Pacific Gateway in a few days time, it is likely that 2019 area data will blip up to more than 2016 in the next few days before stronger ice loss kicks in.

To remember is that on average melt to date is just under 10% of the total for the season. Caveat the Perils of Projections.

________________________________________________________________
ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the obvious year to watch to compare with 2019 for the next two months.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

etienne

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #631 on: April 24, 2019, 06:06:32 PM »
According to NSIDC both Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice extent are at record low levels today.
I wonder how long it is since this last occurred

On vishop https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
on the right side, there is a possibility to check global values. There it is easy to see when the summ of both is at the lowest.Nov 2016 to Oct. 2017 had most of the time the lowest summ, 2018 was often close to that value. But your question is about both separately at the lowest. Daily data for Arctic can be downloaded lower on the page of the link, but I didn't search yet for Antartic data.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #632 on: April 24, 2019, 11:42:42 PM »
According to NSIDC both Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice extent are at record low levels today.
I wonder how long it is since this last occurred

On vishop https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
on the right side, there is a possibility to check global values. There it is easy to see when the summ of both is at the lowest.Nov 2016 to Oct. 2017 had most of the time the lowest summ, 2018 was often close to that value. But your question is about both separately at the lowest. Daily data for Arctic can be downloaded lower on the page of the link, but I didn't search yet for Antartic data.
This happened quite a bit over the last three years, 12 times last year and over 60 times in 2016 and 2017.  It  only occurred once in the 9 years prior to that. Surprisingly not once in 2007 or 2012. This has more to do with Antarctic levels plummeting in the past 4 years than changes in the Arctic.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #633 on: April 25, 2019, 03:10:08 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,586,843 km2(April 22, 2019)

Extent loss has switched to gain after basically stalling in the 2 days before.

while this is a matter of fact and had to be seen coming, i think this will turn around withing a few day, considering  all kinds of forecasts i could find, especially chucki and berings, as well as okhotsk will vanish quickly within a very short time to come ando those will count.

we shall probably see 1 or 2 century drops very soon, let's wait and see.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #634 on: April 25, 2019, 04:12:04 AM »
Area shrank so this is just ice spreading out.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #635 on: April 25, 2019, 06:22:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 24th, 2019:
     12,622,457 km2, an increase of 7,884 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).


PS. I was able to access the data, but when I try to make a copy of the graph, it send me to twitter.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #636 on: April 25, 2019, 07:47:58 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 24th, 2019:
     12,622,457 km2, an increase of 7,884 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).


PS. I was able to access the data, but when I try to make a copy of the graph, it send me to twitter.

Can't access JAXA at all now.
Can the data Juan accessed be trusted if JAXA having problems?

Looks like NSIDC only for me.
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #637 on: April 25, 2019, 08:25:22 AM »
i'd be happy with only weekly posts, since nothing much can be said wrt other years on shorter periods. Of course weather people would want as detailed as possible. Jaxa has always had periods of non-activity. Wouldn't worry about it unless it's over week with no explanation. I'm pretty certain malevolent governments or other actors have secret sections trying to suppress or alter the data at the source, so the intercomparison between the two main ones done here is interesting.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #638 on: April 25, 2019, 09:43:51 AM »
Good to know Trump is aware. I'm sure he will use this knowledge for the good.

Too sad the media doesn't care that we are in record-breaking territory sea ice wise.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #639 on: April 25, 2019, 02:23:09 PM »
For the last several days on JAXA, they’ve had a pop-up as follows. The new version does not have the same easy to use format and graph, as nearly as I can tell.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #640 on: April 25, 2019, 02:36:27 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,671,222 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,671,222    km2      
-568,891    km2   <   2010's average.
-346,990    k   <   2018
-767,558    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -36    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__   -25    k   loss
Other Seas___   -17    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss

Area loss 36 k, 4 k less than the 2010's average loss of 40 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 27 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually increase from around +1 to about +4.5 degrees over the next week to 10 days. There will be strong +ve anomalies over most parts of the Arctic at various times, including above zero temperatures from Monday well into the Chukchi Sea and possibly the CAB, and similar above freezing temperatures at various times in Baffin Bay and the South-East coast of Greenland.

But at the moment total area is closing in on 2016 that was in strong decline at this time. As the area data is a 5 day trailing average, even if a major blast of warmth hits the Pacific Gateway and elsewhere in a few days time, it is likely that 2019 area data will blip up to more than 2016 in the next few days before stronger ice loss kicks in.

To remember is that on average melt to date is just under 10% of the total for the season. Caveat the Perils of Projections for the next week, let alone the end result in September.

________________________________________________________________
ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the obvious year to watch to compare with 2019 for the next two months.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #641 on: April 25, 2019, 04:50:39 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 24th, 2019:
     12,622,457 km2, an increase of 7,884 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

It is working fine now.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #642 on: April 26, 2019, 06:10:13 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 25th, 2019:
     12,626,405 km2, a small increase of 3,948 km2.
     2019 is now second lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #643 on: April 26, 2019, 08:05:34 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,626,405 km2(April 25, 2019)

3 days of extent gains totaling nearly 40k this late in the melting season is unique in the JAXA extent record this century at least.

- Extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 31k greater than 2016.
- Extent gain on this day 4k, a difference of 68 k from the average loss of 64 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,645k, 496 k (43%) greater than the average of 1,148k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 11.6% of the melting season done, with 141 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.89 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.72 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.120 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at ,least June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually increase from around +2 to well over +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. There will be strong +ve anomalies over most parts of the Arctic at various times, including above zero temperatures from Monday extending well into the Chukchi Sea and beyond. Baffin Bay will also experience above zero temperatures. Sea ice decline to accelerate over the 10 day period after this hiatus?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #644 on: April 26, 2019, 02:47:31 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,642,306 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,642,306    km2      
-549,327    km2   <   2010's average.
-362,434    k   <   2018
-762,367    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -29    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas__   -24    k   loss
Other Seas___   -12    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    6    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -6    k   loss
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -8    k   loss

Area loss 29 k, 10 k less than the 2010's average loss of 39 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 28 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually increase from around +2 to well over +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. There will be strong +ve anomalies over most parts of the Arctic at various times, including above zero temperatures from Monday extending well into the Chukchi Sea and beyond. Baffin Bay will also experience above zero temperatures.

But at the moment total area is closing in on 2016 that was in strong decline at this time. As the area data is a 5 day trailing average, even if a major blast of warmth hits the Pacific Gateway and elsewhere in a few days time, it is likely that 2019 area data will blip up to more than 2016 in the next few days before stronger ice loss kicks in. Even then 2016 may stay lowest for some time to come.

To remember is that on average melt to date is around 10% of the total for the season. Caveat the Perils of Projections for the next week, let alone the end result in September.

________________________________________________________________
ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the obvious year to watch to compare with 2019 for the next two months.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #645 on: April 27, 2019, 06:02:40 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 26th, 2019:
     12,608,257 km2, a drop of -18,148 km2.
     2019 is now second lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #646 on: April 27, 2019, 11:57:17 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,608,257 km2(April 26, 2019)

After 3 days of extent gains totaling nearly 40k extent is starting to drop again.

- Extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 38k greater than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 18k,  46 k less than the average loss of 64 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,663k, 450 k (37%) greater than the average of 1,213k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 12.3% of the melting season done, with 140 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.94 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 829 k km2 GREATER THAN 2019. 2012 data already starting to play catch-up

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June.

Other Stuff


My computer cannot reach https://climatereanalyzer.org/ today. Weird.
So no info on temperatures.

Their problem or mine?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #647 on: April 27, 2019, 12:51:08 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,608,257 km2(April 26, 2019)
...

My computer cannot reach https://climatereanalyzer.org/ today. Weird.
So no info on temperatures.

Their problem or mine?
I think it is their problem. It doesn't work here either.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #648 on: April 27, 2019, 03:15:52 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,623,175 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,623,175    km2      
-512,598    km2   <   2010's average.
-364,263    k   <   2018
-741,947    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -19    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    3    k   gain
Central Seas__   -17    k   loss
Other Seas___   -5    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain

Area loss 19 k, 25 k less than the 2010's average loss of 44 k on this day.
Total area now 2nd lowest after being lowest for 28 days in a row.

Other Stuff

No GFs data as https://climatereanalyzer.org/ refuses to connect.

2016 is likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #649 on: April 28, 2019, 05:42:54 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 27th, 2019:
     12,563,633 km2, a drop of -44,624 km2.
     2019 is second lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.