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Altai

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #650 on: April 28, 2019, 07:26:34 AM »
According to Karstenhaustein.com GFS expects the positive anomaly in the Arctic ocean to increase from around +2 to 4 for the next week.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #651 on: April 28, 2019, 11:27:47 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,563,633 km2(April 27, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 65k greater than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 45k, 0 k more than the average loss of 45 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,707k, 450 k (36%) greater than the average of 1,257k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 12.7% of the melting season done, with 139 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.94 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  increase from around +2 to well over +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. The strongest and most persistent +ve anomalies will be in a broad band over the Pacific half of the CAB, the CAA, Baffin Bay and Greenland. The Okhotsk and Bering Seas should be warm enough to completely melt out over the next week to 10 days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #652 on: April 28, 2019, 02:59:13 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,615,112 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,615,112    km2      
-463,134    km2   <   2010's average.
-354,818    k   <   2018
-704,536    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -8    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -4    k   loss
Central Seas__   -2    k   loss
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    6    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -7    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Area loss 8 k, 34 k less than the 2010's average loss of 42 k on this day.
Total area now 2nd lowest after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 2 days ago.

Temperatures
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  increase from around +2 to well over +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. The strongest and most persistent +ve anomalies will be in a broad band over the Pacific half of the CAB, the CAA, Baffin Bay and Greenland. The Okhotsk and Bering Seas should be warm enough to completely melt out over the next week to 10 days.
Other Stuff
The warmth coming in from the Pacific is already affecting area loss in the Bering and Chukchi Seas. NSIDC Daily Extent still lowest and reducing fast again. See next post.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #653 on: April 28, 2019, 03:38:22 PM »
Total sea ice extent (5 day trailing average) still lowest,

Bering and Chukchi (especially) losing sea ice area.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #654 on: April 29, 2019, 05:49:16 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 28th, 2019:
     12,451,876 km2, a century drop of -111,757 km2.
     (3rd. 2019 century drop)
     2019 is second lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
« Last Edit: April 29, 2019, 05:55:01 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #655 on: April 29, 2019, 12:22:34 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,451,876 km2(April 28, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 38k greater than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 112k, 68 k more than the average loss of 44 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,819 k, 517 k (40%) greater than the average of 1,302k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 13.2% of the melting season done, with 138 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.89 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.71 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  vary from around +2.5 to just under +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. The strongest and most persistent +ve anomalies will be in a broad band over the Pacific half of the CAB, the CAA, Baffin Bay and Greenland. The Okhotsk and Bering Seas should be warm enough to completely melt out over the next week to 10 days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #656 on: April 29, 2019, 02:58:01 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 28 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,599,356 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,599,356    km2      
-424,619    km2   <   2010's average.
-357,709    k   <   2018
-673,565    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -16    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas__   -0    k   loss
Other Seas___   -7    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____   -10    k   loss
Barents ______    9    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    9    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Area loss 16 k, 30 k less than the 2010's average loss of 46 k on this day.
Total area now 2nd lowest after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 3 days ago.

Temperatures
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  vary from around +2.5 to just under +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. The strongest and most persistent +ve anomalies will be in a broad band over the Pacific half of the CAB, the CAA, Baffin Bay and Greenland. The Okhotsk and Bering Seas should be warm enough to completely melt out over the next week to 10 days.

Other Stuff
The warmth coming in from the Pacific is already affecting area loss in the Bering and Chukchi Seas. Area sea ice loss should accelerate from now.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

be cause

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #657 on: April 29, 2019, 06:44:29 PM »
looking at the NSIDC area graph it seems that over the next 6 weeks 2016 actually fell in line with the 2010's average .. remaining the same distance ahead for the duration .. my guess is that 2019 will soon be challenging for the lead again .. b.c.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2019, 07:35:51 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #658 on: April 29, 2019, 07:29:13 PM »
Losses between Apr 28 and June 03 (from JAXA):
2016: 2.06 M km²
10s: 1.89 M km²
00s: 1.70 M km²
90s: 1.60 M km²
So 2016 was a bit higher than all the averages, but of course 2019 can easily "beat" 2016 even within a few days due to the massive intrusion of warm air through Bering Strait and the movement of ice off the coast of NE Siberia and off the NW coast of Alaska... (see also Aluminium's latest animation in the 2019 melting season thread)
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #659 on: April 30, 2019, 05:47:50 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 29th, 2019:
     12,359,667 km2, a drop of -92,209 km2.
     2019 is second lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).


P.S. The five lowest years on April 29th: 2015-2019
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Alison

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #660 on: April 30, 2019, 06:05:38 AM »
200k+ in two days...

kiwichick16

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #661 on: April 30, 2019, 06:54:53 AM »
2016 ice melt  28th April -  3rd June = 2.06 million sq kms

divided by 36 days = 57,222 sq kms per day   .....unless I stuffed up the maths

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #662 on: April 30, 2019, 11:21:22 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,359,667 km2(April 29, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 12 k greater than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 92k, 43 k more than the average loss of 49 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,911 k, 560 k (41%) greater than the average of 1,351k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 13.7% of the melting season done, with 137 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.83 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.65 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June.

Other Stuff

https://climatereanalyzer.org/ not responding again - so here is yesterday's analysis -
Quote
[/b]GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  vary from around +2.5 to just under +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. The strongest and most persistent +ve anomalies will be in a broad band over the Pacific half of the CAB, the CAA, Baffin Bay and Greenland. The Okhotsk and Bering Seas should be warm enough to completely melt out over the next week to 10 days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #663 on: April 30, 2019, 02:24:24 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,567,983 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,567,983    km2      
-403,651    km2   <   2010's average.
-361,624    k   <   2018
-659,256    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -31    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -18    k   loss
Central Seas__   -4    k   loss
Other Seas___   -9    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____   -11    k   loss
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -15    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Area loss 31 k, 16 k less than the 2010's average loss of 47 k on this day.
Total area now 2nd lowest after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 3 days ago.

Temperatures
https://climatereanalyzer.org/ still will not speak to me. Here is yesterday's summary
Quote
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  vary from around +2.5 to just under +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. The strongest and most persistent +ve anomalies will be in a broad band over the Pacific half of the CAB, the CAA, Baffin Bay and Greenland. The Okhotsk and Bering Seas should be warm enough to completely melt out over the next week to 10 days.

Other Stuff
The warmth coming in from the Pacific is already affecting area loss in the Bering and Chukchi Seas. Area sea ice loss should accelerate from now.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #664 on: April 30, 2019, 05:05:23 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,359,667 km2(April 29, 2019)
...
Including 2016 [2015-16] in the "JAXA ARCTIC Extent Gain (+) Loss (-) in Km2" chart would give a feel for the horse race these next two months.  [2018 is so 'last year'  :P ::) 8) :o ;D]
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #665 on: May 01, 2019, 05:43:12 AM »
ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA) is just a little late, but what I found on "Time and date" is hard to swallow.
I will keep looking for the data, but not too much hope.

Quote
Emperor Akihito of Japan abdicated on 30 April 2019,[1] the first Japanese Emperor to do so since 1817. This marked the end of the Heisei era and the inception of the Reiwa era, and will precipitate numerous festivities leading up to the accession of his successor, Emperor Naruhito.[2] The enthronement ceremony will likely happen on 22 October 2019.[3] Akihito's younger son, Prince Akishino, is his brother's heir presumptive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Japanese_imperial_transition

Holidays in Japan - 2019:
https://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/japan/
« Last Edit: May 01, 2019, 06:29:43 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

charles_oil

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #666 on: May 01, 2019, 08:37:22 AM »
I thought we do well for holidays here in France - but that looks amazing!    Its 1st May and so its our giant charity book sale and spring bazaar today here so no holiday for me.   :)     Sorry for the OT post !

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #667 on: May 01, 2019, 09:37:49 AM »
Holidays in Japan - 2019:
It's Japan's "Golden Week", but this year two more days were added because of the abdication. Last year data was absent through these holidays, so there is a good chance that we will have to wait nearly a whole week for the official data.

Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #668 on: May 01, 2019, 10:08:42 AM »
Can someone explain to me why automated products need a holiday?  ;D
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pauldry600

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #669 on: May 01, 2019, 10:48:37 AM »
In that case we will have to guess extent drop to amuse ourselves.

Looking at Uni Bremen graph doesnt look like huge chunks gone since yday
so id say we are down 60k

Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #670 on: May 01, 2019, 11:33:15 AM »
Can someone explain to me why automated products need a holiday?  ;D
They probably power down most of the computers and do some maintenance the next time they're powering them up...
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #671 on: May 01, 2019, 11:38:24 AM »
Can someone explain to me why automated products need a holiday?  ;D
They probably power down most of the computers and do some maintenance the next time they're powering them up...
Perhaps the system is not fully automated, i.e. a human quality check before the go button is pushed.
Perhaps the AI is so advanced the computers have now demanded equal holiday rights?
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #672 on: May 01, 2019, 12:18:21 PM »
Perhaps the AI is so advanced the computers have now demanded equal holiday rights?

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Nikita

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #673 on: May 01, 2019, 12:20:26 PM »
NSIDC Data for April (1-29)


gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #674 on: May 01, 2019, 02:06:56 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,509,627 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,509,627    km2      
-409,801    km2   <   2010's average.
-379,567    k   <   2018
-670,722    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -58    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -28    k   loss
Central Seas__   -24    k   loss
Other Seas___   -6    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -14    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________    6    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -19    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    6    k   gain
Area loss 58 k, 15 k more than the 2010's average loss of 43 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (215k > 2016) after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 4 days ago.

Temperatures
https://climatereanalyzer.org/ still will not speak to me. 
I have asked the University of Maine if there is a problem.

Other Stuff
The warmth coming in from the Pacific is already affecting area loss in the Bering and Chukchi Seas. Area sea ice loss has accelerated and looked as if it would continue for a few days..

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Wipneus

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #675 on: May 01, 2019, 02:38:58 PM »
NSIDC NT extent and area for the Basin only. Extent is just starting to drop from 100%  ice, while sea ice area has now dropped to low records for the day.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #676 on: May 01, 2019, 02:49:23 PM »
As it is the end of a month for NSIDC data, here are AREA Sea Ice graphs for year to date

Pacific Gateway:-
Bering - on its way out

Chukchi - impressive recent loss
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #677 on: May 01, 2019, 02:55:30 PM »
As it is the end of a month for NSIDC data, here are graphs for year to date

Canadian Seas -
Baffin Bay - below average most of the time,
CAA and Hudson Bay - still dithering around the max.


"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #678 on: May 01, 2019, 03:01:36 PM »
As it is the end of a month for NSIDC data, here are AREA graphs for year to date

Atlantic Front

Greenland Sea - recent strong area loss making area well below 2010's average,
Barents Sea -     now at 2010's average
Kara & Laptev  - still dithering around the max
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #679 on: May 01, 2019, 03:03:25 PM »
As it is the end of a month for NSIDC data, here are AREA graphs for year to date

Central Seas
ESS, Beaufort and Central Arctic  - still dithering around the max
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #680 on: May 01, 2019, 03:14:40 PM »
Other Seas

Okhotsk - melting a bit early this year,
St Lawrence average.

Both irrelevant by Mid-May
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #681 on: May 01, 2019, 04:54:59 PM »
I asked the University of Maine today what was up with /climatereanalyzer.org/

Their reply was really quick.
The server died on Monday - it is still dead and they don't know when it is coming back.

So much for the benefits of worry-free cloud computing.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #682 on: May 01, 2019, 07:49:34 PM »
I asked the University of Maine today what was up with /climatereanalyzer.org/

Their reply was really quick.
The server died on Monday - it is still dead and they don't know when it is coming back.

So much for the benefits of worry-free cloud computing.

thanks and kudos to mr. birkel, i love anyone who communicates properly, really kind of him to take care of individual email, considering the importance and probably traffic volume of that site.

 :-*

just another link to watch for changes or news.

https://twitter.com/reanalyzer?lang=en

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #683 on: May 01, 2019, 10:03:39 PM »

So much for the benefits of worry-free cloud computing.

"the cloud" = someone else's computer  :o

just use encrypted disk images, ie. sparsbundledisimages and you're safe, very high encryption, no backdoor and by using really long PP like myself (36multilanguageetcpassphrases) it would take centuries for the bad boys to get in.

only this way the cloud is safe.

most of the stuff i simply don't care to bother about that small possibility that someone would see me or my wife naked LOL but then some 15GB that are important like banking, stocks etc stuff are strored safely and backed up to every available computer, cloud and phone i can get a hold on. even backing up to my dad's computer off-site, a bit paranoid perhaps but i run 9 full off-site  data backups and 4 bootable full on-site backups. if I lose my data i'm ripe for the island, 30 years of work, books, artwork etc. in there ;) not to forget all my digitalised venyl ;) ;)
« Last Edit: May 01, 2019, 10:10:03 PM by magnamentis »

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #684 on: May 02, 2019, 05:54:44 AM »
There is data! Thanks [ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)]!  :)
Arctic Sea Ice Extent.


April 30th, 2019:
     12,305,376 km2, a drop of -54,291 km2.
     2019 is second lowest on record.
     [2016] - [2019]:  -11,929 km2.

May 1st, 2019:
     12,236,563 km2, a drop of -68,813 km2.
     2019 is second lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
« Last Edit: May 02, 2019, 06:01:02 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Ktb

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #685 on: May 02, 2019, 07:04:23 AM »
Bimonthly BOE evaluation.

April 30 extent was 12,305,376 km^2. With on average 136 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -83,128 km^2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

Surprisingly, there were several days of extent gain in April, and several days of low extent losses. Total extent loss in April was -1,069,805 km^2. And total extent loss so far this season is -1,965,745 km^2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -40,691 km^2. This is the 2nd fastest rate of melt from maximum to April 30th, behind 2010 at -43,748 km^2. Although, keep in mind that 2010's maximum was reached on March 31st. (See attachment 2 with graph :D).
Fun Addition: If the month of May ended today, 2019 would have the 3rd fastest rate of melt, behind 2010 and 2014.

Looking only at the month of April, we have averaged -35,660 km^2 per day (much slower than the March powerhouse of this season). This average daily drop places April 2019 as 7th out of 13 (2007-2019) in average daily April melt. (See Attachment 3).
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Ktb

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #686 on: May 02, 2019, 07:11:15 AM »
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from May 1 to their respective minimums (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From May 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement is the 2nd highest value, behind only 2018 with an average daily drop of -80,251 km^2. Keep in mind that 2018's minimum was reached on September 21st, and that 2016's minimum was reached on September 7th. (See attachment 2). End
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #687 on: May 02, 2019, 10:56:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,236,563 km2(May 1, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 41 k greater than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 69k, 15 k more than the average loss of 54 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,035 k, 582 k (40%) greater than the average of 1,453k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 14.7% of the melting season done, with 135 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.81 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.63 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June.

Other Stuff

https://climatereanalyzer.org/ not responding again - server kaput
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #688 on: May 02, 2019, 02:27:19 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,426,064 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,426,064    km2      
-430,139    km2   <   2010's average.
-392,555    k   <   2018
-712,939    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -84    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -26    k   loss
Central Seas__   -43    k   loss
Other Seas___   -14    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -12    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -11    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -13    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -12    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Area loss 84 k, 42 k more than the 2010's average loss of 42 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (197k > 2016) after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 5 days ago.

Temperatures
https://climatereanalyzer.org/ still will not speak to me. 
I asked the University of Maine if there is a problem. They said yes, and no idea when service will be resumed.
A real pity as it is obvious that warmth and wind have marched into the Arctic Ocean via the Pacific Gateway and into Baffin Bay from the Atlantic.

Other Stuff
The warmth coming in from the Pacific is already affecting area loss in the Bering and Chukchi Seas and now causing area loss in the ESS and Beaufort. Area sea ice loss has accelerated and looked as if it would continue for a few days..

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Midnightsun

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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #690 on: May 02, 2019, 04:34:25 PM »
Just possibly an event unfolding in the ESS
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #691 on: May 02, 2019, 06:09:36 PM »
Just possibly an event unfolding in the ESS
That initial crack along the margins of the shallowest bays might still close up. Also possible that it will not do that. Is that the earliest? 2,5 weeks early to 2010s average anyway. How's the weather in Easternmost Russia and currents in Chukchi Sea?
« Last Edit: May 02, 2019, 06:18:07 PM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

wdmn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #692 on: May 02, 2019, 06:57:59 PM »
Just possibly an event unfolding in the ESS

Gerontocrat,

Possible to repost that graph showing previous early melt years for the ESS?


Thanks

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #693 on: May 02, 2019, 07:26:04 PM »
Just possibly an event unfolding in the ESS
Just add the 2016 and 2017 lines... One of them should show something very similar

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #694 on: May 02, 2019, 09:46:49 PM »

"the cloud" = someone else's computer  :o

just use encrypted disk images, ie. sparsbundledisimages and you're safe, very high encryption, no backdoor and by using really long PP like myself (36multilanguageetcpassphrases) it would take centuries for the bad boys to get in.

*snip*
Preaching to the choir & I'm way ahead of you (incl. the digitized vinyl)  ;) But pls do not respond here as this is off-topic.  :-X

I just poked around climatereanalyser yet again but could only get a handful of partial page loads...  :'(

analyzer is finally back online but maps are not yet loading, they're probably settings things up as i write.

glad to hear that you're ahead but since i'm interested to learn new and/or better stuff at all times i'd of course appreciate if you would elaborate via PM ;)

Aluminium

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #695 on: May 02, 2019, 10:24:10 PM »
Climate Reanalyzer looks good. :D

I tried link on the ASIG.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #696 on: May 03, 2019, 05:56:05 AM »
Thanks [ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] for giving us the data on holidays!  :)
Arctic Sea Ice Extent.


May 2nd, 2019:
     12,176,248 km2, a drop of -60,315 km2.
     2019 is second lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #697 on: May 03, 2019, 07:54:07 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,176,248 km2(May 2, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 12 k greater than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 60k, 12 k more than the average loss of 48 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,095 k, 594 k (40%) greater than the average of 1,501k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 15.2% of the melting season done, with 134 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.80 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.62 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June.

Other Stuff https://climatereanalyzer.org/ has returned.

GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth moving across from the Pacific side as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests above average but steady sea ice decline?

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #698 on: May 03, 2019, 12:42:32 PM »
and climate reanalyzer is gone again for now: 12:41 CEST

emphasizing the time in case it's back in an hour while it's been down now for a while again.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #699 on: May 03, 2019, 02:31:21 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,332,021 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,332,021    km2      
-460,538    km2   <   2010's average.
-416,241    k   <   2018
-769,120    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -94    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -21    k   loss
Central Seas__   -56    k   loss
Other Seas___   -17    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -15    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -14    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss

Area loss 94 k, 47 k more than the 2010's average loss of 47 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (176k > 2016) after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 6 days ago.

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period. Warmth and wind have marched into the Arctic Ocean via the Pacific Gateway and into Baffin Bay from the Atlantic.

Other Stuff
The warmth coming in from the Pacific is affecting area loss in the Bering and Chukchi Seas and now causing area loss in the ESS and Beaufort. Area sea ice loss has accelerated and looks as if it will continue for a few days, as may area loss in Baffin Bay.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)