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Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #700 on: May 03, 2019, 03:31:24 PM »
NSIDC posted their analysis for April yesterday:  Rapid ice loss in early April leads to new record low
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #701 on: May 04, 2019, 05:44:09 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 3rd, 2019:
     12,117,320 km2, a drop of -58,928 km2.
     2019 is now the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

wdmn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #702 on: May 04, 2019, 06:50:51 AM »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #703 on: May 04, 2019, 10:22:52 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,117,320 km2(May 3, 2019)

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record, 27 k less than 2016, and the 27th day extent has been lowest in 2019.
- Extent loss on this day 59k, 13 k more than the average loss of 46 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,154 k, 607 k (39%) greater than the average of 1,547k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 15.7% of the melting season done, with 133 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.78 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.60 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth moving across from the Pacific side as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests above average but steady sea ice decline?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #704 on: May 04, 2019, 02:02:52 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,250,174 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,250,174    km2      
-478,190    km2   <   2010's average.
-430,650    k   <   2018
-811,713    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -82    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss
Central Seas__   -50    k   loss
Other Seas___   -16    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -20    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -9    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Area loss 82 k, 37 k more than the 2010's average loss of 45 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (177k > 2016) after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 7 days ago.

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period. Warmth and wind have marched into the Arctic Ocean via the Pacific Gateway and into Baffin Bay from the Atlantic.

Other Stuff
The warmth coming in from the Pacific is affecting area loss in the Bering and Chukchi Seas and now causing area loss in the ESS and Beaufort. Area sea ice loss has accelerated and looks as if it will continue for a few days, as may area loss in Baffin Bay.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #705 on: May 04, 2019, 02:19:03 PM »
The East Siberian Sea continues to los area at a rate of knots.
Now 3 weeks ahead of the 2010's average, and 6 weeks ahead of 2018.

The Beaufort also showing signs of joining in.

Getting quite late in the season for a total refreeze? Much depends on how long the above average temperatures and winds favourable for open water expansion last.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #706 on: May 04, 2019, 02:53:45 PM »
The East Siberian Sea continues to los area at a rate of knots.
Now 3 weeks ahead of the 2010's average, and 6 weeks ahead of 2018.

The Beaufort also showing signs of joining in.

Getting quite late in the season for a total refreeze? Much depends on how long the above average temperatures and winds favourable for open water expansion last.

Yep, quite late, If the winds don't totally reverse, and that doesn't look likely.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #707 on: May 04, 2019, 03:09:33 PM »
NSIDC posted their analysis for April yesterday:  Rapid ice loss in early April leads to new record low

Amazing how much of the ice exiting and set to exit the Fram is 1st year ice.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #708 on: May 04, 2019, 03:17:02 PM »
JAXA daily is in 1st place again because 2016 (shown in green) had a (rare) small-loss day.
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #709 on: May 04, 2019, 04:40:10 PM »
The seas with only partial sea ice cover (Okhotsk, St. Lawrence and Barents) show a dramatic decrease in the last week (Okhotsk 36%, St. Lawrence 40%, Barents 55%). If no significant changes (weather, wind direction, drift pattern) occur these seas should be almost ice-free within the next ten to fifteen days.

uniquorn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #710 on: May 04, 2019, 05:53:21 PM »
Amazing how much of the ice exiting and set to exit the Fram is 1st year ice.
Refreeze between fractured 2-4yr ice perhaps

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #711 on: May 04, 2019, 07:21:06 PM »
This year MYI has the shape of a turkey

(just saying, as we have found goats, dinosaurs and other creatures in the pack over the years).
Anyway, this turkey can easily lose the neck

Thawing Thunder

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #712 on: May 04, 2019, 08:35:09 PM »
It will – while its butt is ground in the Fram grinder.
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #713 on: May 05, 2019, 07:33:26 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,087,526 km2(May 4, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 6 k more than 2016,
- Extent loss on this day 30k, 19 k less than the average loss of 49 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,184 k, 588 k (37%) greater than the average of 1,596k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 16.1% of the melting season done, with 132 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.80 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.62 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +4 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth in the Pacific side as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests average to above average steady sea ice decline?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #714 on: May 05, 2019, 07:40:49 AM »
Sorry for being late today…  :(

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 4th, 2019:
     12,087,526 km2, a drop of -29,794 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #715 on: May 05, 2019, 07:51:43 AM »
Sorry for being late today…  :(

No worries Juan! :)

Wipneus

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #716 on: May 05, 2019, 02:03:09 PM »
NSIDC NT sea ice extent and area in the Basin (Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev and Cental Basin) continue to drop fast. Area is below anything before in the first days of May.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #717 on: May 05, 2019, 04:18:24 PM »
Does anybody have any insight into the fact that 2006 had the lowest extent 'these days' (and was part of the mix for area) while 2019 has the lowest area 'these days' (and is part of the mix for extent)?  All about 'compaction', I think... (but why/how?)
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #718 on: May 05, 2019, 05:22:29 PM »
Does anybody have any insight into the fact that 2006 had the lowest extent 'these days' (and was part of the mix for area) while 2019 has the lowest area 'these days' (and is part of the mix for extent)?  All about 'compaction', I think... (but why/how?)

I think it was the year a large polynya was born in northern Chukchi that was assumed to be a result of a large influx of Pacific waters, but not sure if this was the year and not sure if this was the time of year either.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #719 on: May 05, 2019, 05:44:10 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,178,315 km2
               
 11,178,315    km2      
-490,368    km2   <   2010's average.
-426,299    k   <   2018
-843,702    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -72    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss
Central Seas__   -43    k   loss
Other Seas___   -13    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -22    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -9    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Area loss 72 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average loss of 64 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (180k > 2016) after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 8 days ago.

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period. Warmth and wind have marched into the Arctic Ocean via the Pacific Gateway and into Baffin Bay from the Atlantic.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +4 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth in the Pacific side as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Darvince

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #720 on: May 05, 2019, 10:58:46 PM »
Does anybody have any insight into the fact that 2006 had the lowest extent 'these days' (and was part of the mix for area) while 2019 has the lowest area 'these days' (and is part of the mix for extent)?  All about 'compaction', I think... (but why/how?)
In 2006 there was lots of compaction from the Atlantic side with it more resembling what it has in recent years than the years directly before and after '06. This year there's uh... pre-preconditioning on the Pacific side of the Arctic?? I don't know what's going on this year, the temperatures there are still quite a ways below freezing.

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #721 on: May 06, 2019, 12:29:47 AM »
Next week's generalized ramp-up of temperatures in the NH, I guess normal, but with Siberia this time taking the lead (Eastern Siberia will sustain diurnal over freezing temperatures for days) and North America staying cooler with exception of "torrid" Greenland and CAA. We may see the first surface melt over CAA channels.
Attached the GFS ensemble 2m T anom, averaged for next 5 days

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #722 on: May 06, 2019, 05:48:36 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 5th, 2019:
     12,041,650 km2, a drop of -45,876 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jdallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #723 on: May 06, 2019, 09:01:33 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 5th, 2019:
     12,041,650 km2, a drop of -45,876 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

2019 for all intents and purposes, is currently following 2016's track.  The difference is well within the margin of error.
This space for Rent.

uniquorn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #724 on: May 06, 2019, 10:30:49 AM »
2019 for all intents and purposes, is currently following 2016's track.  The difference is well within the margin of error.
Extent numbers are similar, the location of the ice is quite different. Click to run

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #725 on: May 06, 2019, 01:35:29 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,041,650 km2(May 5, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 3 k more than 2016,
- Extent loss on this day 46k, 7 k less than the average loss of 53 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,229 k, 581 k (35%) greater than the average of 1,648k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 16.7% of the melting season done, with 131 days to average date of minimum (13 September). That is just one-sixth of the average total extent loss in the season

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.81 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.63 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests average to above average steady sea ice decline?
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #726 on: May 06, 2019, 02:55:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,115,138  km2
               
Total Area         
 11,115,138    km2      
-498,816    km2   <   2010's average.
-415,648    k   <   2018
-864,760    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -63    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -18    k   loss
Central Seas__   -31    k   loss
Other Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -13    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -6    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss


Area loss 63 k, 3 k more than the 2010's average loss of 60 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (168k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period. Warmth and wind have marched into the Arctic Ocean via the Pacific Gateway and into Baffin Bay from the Atlantic.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #727 on: May 07, 2019, 05:47:51 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 6th, 2019:
     11,976,572 km2, a drop of -65,078 km2.
     2019 is now the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #728 on: May 07, 2019, 07:08:48 AM »
It looks like a race between 2016 and 2019. Let's wait and see what it will look like from mid May on, when 2016 showed higher than average losses...

Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #729 on: May 07, 2019, 08:17:48 AM »
2016 had a 130K drop the day after tomorrow, and a 99K drop after that. Let's see if 2019 can keep up with that for starters.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #730 on: May 07, 2019, 09:12:17 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,976,572 km2(May 6, 2019)

- Extent is  lowest in the satellite record, 10 k less than 2016, lowest for the 28th day this year.
- Extent loss on this day 65k, 18 k more than the average loss of 47 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,295 k, 599 k (35%) greater than the average of 1,695k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 17.2% of the melting season done, with 130 days to average date of minimum (13 September). That is just one-sixth of the average total extent loss in the season

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.79 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.61 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests average to above average steady sea ice decline?
« Last Edit: May 07, 2019, 10:31:00 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #731 on: May 07, 2019, 09:24:11 AM »
Extent loss on this day 65k, 18 k less than the average loss of 47 k on this day

s/less/more

:)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #732 on: May 07, 2019, 10:31:29 AM »
Extent loss on this day 65k, 18 k less than the average loss of 47 k on this day

s/less/more

:)
whoops
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #733 on: May 07, 2019, 02:02:40 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,060,514  km2
               
Total Area         
 11,060,514    km2      
-511,748    km2   <   2010's average.
-417,442    k   <   2018
-875,976    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -55    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -21    k   loss
Central Seas__   -26    k   loss
Other Seas___   -8    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Area loss 55 k, 0 k more than the 2010's average loss of 55 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (156k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period. Warmth and wind have marched into the Arctic Ocean via the Pacific Gateway and into Baffin Bay from the Atlantic.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for a time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #734 on: May 07, 2019, 03:13:44 PM »
Some Area graphs

Baffin Bay - the warmth and southerly winds have had an efect.
Bering Area loss in decline simply because its nearly all gone.
Chukchi and Beaufort still losing area at a rate of knots.

(last year it was the Atlantic Front that seemed to be dissolving in front of our eyes).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #735 on: May 07, 2019, 03:16:53 PM »
2016 had a 130K drop the day after tomorrow, and a 99K drop after that. Let's see if 2019 can keep up with that for starters.
I'm glad Gerontocrat put the green 2016 daily gains and losses into his JAXA chart, so we can watch 'in chart form' things like what Neven alerted us to 'in words'.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #736 on: May 08, 2019, 05:58:35 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 7th, 2019:
     11,942,527 km2, a drop of -34,045 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

FrostKing70

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #737 on: May 08, 2019, 07:15:24 AM »
In looking at the graph, I wonder if we might become lowest in a week or so, at the inflection point in 2016 around May 9th or 10th...

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #738 on: May 08, 2019, 12:23:30 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,942,527 km2(May 7, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd  lowest in the satellite record, 30 k more than 2016
- Extent loss on this day 34k, 19 k less than the average loss of 53 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,328 k, 581 k (33%) greater than the average of 1,748k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 17.7% of the melting season done, with 129 days to average date of minimum (13 September). That is just one-sixth of the average total extent loss in the season

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.81 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.63 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests average sea ice decline? (2016 sea ice was in very strong decline at this time).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #739 on: May 08, 2019, 04:24:42 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,020,509  km2
               
Total Area         
 11,020,509    km2      
-511,210    km2   <   2010's average.
-397,163    k   <   2018
-872,073    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -40    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -19    k   loss
Other Seas___   -7    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area loss 40 k, 2 k less than the 2010's average loss of 42 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (140k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #740 on: May 09, 2019, 05:46:09 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 8th, 2019:
     11,900,579 km2, a drop of -41,948 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
« Last Edit: May 10, 2019, 05:53:13 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #741 on: May 09, 2019, 06:18:32 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,900,579 km2(May 8, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd  lowest in the satellite record, 118 k more than 2016
- Extent loss on this day 42k, 27 k less than the average loss of 69 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,371 k, 554 k (31%) greater than the average of 1,816k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 18.4% of the melting season done, with 128 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.84 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.66 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2.

Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner. At the moment 2012 daily loss still below average.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests average sea ice decline? (2016 sea ice was in very strong decline at this time).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Wipneus

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #742 on: May 09, 2019, 06:57:03 PM »
NSIDC NT sea ice extent and area in the Arctic Basin (you know what I mean) are now both below anything previously on the 8th of May.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #743 on: May 09, 2019, 07:05:50 PM »

The ice that actually counts in September. Lets hope for a cold summer.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #744 on: May 09, 2019, 07:13:51 PM »
Please note that we are about half a month ahead of the grey shaded area. And 2019 is not the first year with that behaviour.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #745 on: May 09, 2019, 07:45:29 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,982,989  km2
               
Total Area         
 10,982,989    km2      
-505,819    km2   <   2010's average.
-375,964    k   <   2018
-861,745    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -38    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -17    k   loss
Other Seas___   -7    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss

Area loss 38 k, 3 k less than the 2010's average loss of 41 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (116k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #746 on: May 10, 2019, 05:51:21 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 9th, 2019:
     11,861,080 km2, a drop of -39,499 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #747 on: May 10, 2019, 11:21:21 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,861,080 km2(May 9, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd  lowest in the satellite record, 178 k more than 2016
- Extent loss on this day 39k, 18 k less than the average loss of 57 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,410 k, 536 k (29%) greater than the average of 1,874k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 19.0% of the melting season done, with 128 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.85 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.67 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2.

Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner. At the moment 2012 daily loss still below average.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2 to +3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #748 on: May 10, 2019, 02:24:28 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,953,362  km2
               
Total Area         
 10,953,362    km2      
-486,383    km2   <   2010's average.
-357,081    k   <   2018
-842,708    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -30    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -14    k   loss
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -7    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______   -12    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Area loss 30 k, 13 k less than the 2010's average loss of 43 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (111k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2 to +3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #749 on: May 10, 2019, 05:35:01 PM »
Here is an area graph showing both 2016 and 2012 data for just the "High Arctic" seas as defined by Tealight. (Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea, Canadian Archipelago, Central Arctic).

Also are the AWP graphs from Tealight for those same seas.

A nice illustration of how even though melt was much later in 2012 than in 2016, it did not prevent cumulative AWP in the central Arctic in 2012 ending up much higher than in 2016.

Mind you, it did not stop the ice recovering within a year.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2019, 05:42:16 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)