JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,117,320 km2(May 3, 2019)
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record, 27 k less than 2016, and the 27th day extent has been lowest in 2019.
- Extent loss on this day 59k, 13 k more than the average loss of 46 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,154 k, 607 k (39%) greater than the average of 1,547k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 15.7% of the melting season done, with 133 days to average date of minimum (13 September)
The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.78 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.60 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.
Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth moving across from the Pacific side as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.
Suggests above average but steady sea ice decline?