JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,657,225 km2(May 14, 2019)
After a solid week of well below avarge extent loss, 2 days of above average loss.
- Extent is back to 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 363 k > 2016, just 21k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 65k, 14 k more than the average loss of 51 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,614 k, 435 k (20%) greater than the average of 2,180k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 22.1% of the melting season done, with 122 days to average date of minimum (13 September).
The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.96 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.78 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.
Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.
At the moment little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate, which makes the general disintegration of the sea ice all along the Arctic ocean edge from the Beaufort to the Greenland Sea all a bit of a mystery to me. But several posts on the melting season suggest that major changes favouring mega-melt might be in train.
But as far as melting is concerned, at less than 25% of melting done, the season is far from over.