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El Cid

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #800 on: May 19, 2019, 08:41:25 AM »
With the pollution in Mexico City and surrounding, I am starting to be sick, so I will go early to bed.
Can someone else post the JAXA data?
Thanks.

That's a shame! We really should change the way these megacities work (especially transportation).

Get better!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #801 on: May 19, 2019, 10:43:03 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,374,861 km2(May 18, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 271 k > 2016, 146 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 46 k, 12 k less than the average loss of 58 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,896 k, 498 k (21%) greater than the average of 2,397k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 24.3% of the melting season done, with 118 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.89 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.71 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay for most of the time.

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate further. But several posts on the melting season thread suggest (with growing confidence?) that major changes favouring mega-melt might be in train. The sheer persistence of above average temperatures across the whole Arctic might have an effect?

On average, nearly 25% of the melting season is done.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #802 on: May 19, 2019, 11:33:16 AM »
With the pollution in Mexico City and surrounding, I am starting to be sick, so I will go early to bed.
Can someone else post the JAXA data?
Thanks.

To the hills, Juan, to the hills.

Makes me wonder how many of those who post on this forum have been personally badly affected by climate change and all the other bad stuff we are doing to the environment.

For Juan, environmental degradation is not a paper exercise but an actual threat.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #803 on: May 19, 2019, 02:06:42 PM »
With the pollution in Mexico City and surrounding, I am starting to be sick, so I will go early to bed.
Can someone else post the JAXA data?
Thanks.

That's a shame! We really should change the way these megacities work (especially transportation).



Get better!

The problem is due to ongoing drought and heat that have triggered massive wildfires near Mexico City.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145062/wildfire-smoke-shrouds-mexico-city

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #804 on: May 19, 2019, 02:36:09 PM »
These kinds of pictures will be the norm across the planet by 2050.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #805 on: May 19, 2019, 03:16:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,540,849 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,540,849    km2      
-352,359    km2   <   2010's average.
-233,535    k   <   2018
-782,239    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -71    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -37    k   loss
Central Seas__   -34    k   loss
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -16    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -15    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -18    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______    11    k   gain
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Area loss 71 k, 10 k more than the 2010's average loss of 61 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (331k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic, the CAA and Hudson Bay. Also warmth in Baffin Bay  for most of the time.

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate further. But several posts on the melting season thread suggest (with growing confidence?) that major changes favouring mega-melt might be in train. The sheer persistence of above average temperatures across the whole Arctic might have an effect?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #806 on: May 19, 2019, 06:41:38 PM »
Makes me wonder how many of those who post on this forum have been personally badly affected by climate change and all the other bad stuff we are doing to the environment.

5 years in guangzhou/shenzhen from 2011 - 2016 that was kind of peak pollution and the very beginning of regulations as to EVs (mostly scooters at that time but at least the move began)

i loved to work there, great people and many things are way superior to what we know (many would be are are surprised) but then 2-3 no goes (downsides) and one of them is pollution, number one for me is internet information censoring and internet limitations/restrictions.

jdallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #807 on: May 19, 2019, 08:41:24 PM »
<snippage>
At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate further. But several posts on the melting season thread suggest (with growing confidence?) that major changes favouring mega-melt might be in train. The sheer persistence of above average temperatures across the whole Arctic might have an effect?

Less the higher temperatures, more the increased insolation that comes from the dominant high pressure systems over much of the Arctic, combined with disappearing snow cover.

If these conditions persist, as they well might, we may find Friv's hyperbole to be prophetic.
This space for Rent.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #808 on: May 20, 2019, 06:15:12 AM »
Thank you for your comments. And thanks wdmn for taking care of the posts.  :)
I should make a post on "places less livable".  :'(

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 19th, 2019:
     11,323,094 km2, a drop of -51,767 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Alison

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #809 on: May 20, 2019, 07:27:16 AM »
Hope things are better for you today, Juan  :-*

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #810 on: May 20, 2019, 08:02:31 AM »
Hope things are better for you today, Juan  :-*

I excuse myself because I expressed myself so badly. Pollution has been terrible in central Mexico, but I was only taking about been out for one or maybe a couple of days. I was feeling pretty bad, so I was not going to post yesterday night.
Things are fine (as fine as it can be, given that we have lost almost 2/3 of ASI volume, measuring 2010-18 versus 1979-2000 and we have also local pollution). But I hope to be posting here for several years. I am JAXA addicted, so I usually cannot go to bed without looking the new data.

Thanks for been concerned and for your good wishes…  :)
« Last Edit: May 20, 2019, 08:16:57 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #811 on: May 20, 2019, 09:25:51 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,323,094 km2(May 19, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 282 k > 2016, 112 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 52 k, 13 k less than the average loss of 65 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,948 k, 485 k (20%) greater than the average of 2,463k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 24.9% of the melting season done, with 117 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.91 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.73 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.3 to +3.7 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic .

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future.

On average, nearly 25% of the melting season is done.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #812 on: May 20, 2019, 02:38:34 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,466,440 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,466,440    km2      
-369,225    km2   <   2010's average.
-253,202    k   <   2018
-793,550    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -74    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -23    k   loss
Central Seas__   -52    k   loss
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -14    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______   -9    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -17    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -12    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

Area loss 74 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average loss of 62 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (314k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, the CAA and Hudson Bay. Also warmth in Baffin Bay  for most of the time.

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate further. But several posts on the melting season thread suggest (with growing confidence?) that major changes favouring mega-melt might be in train. The sheer persistence of above average temperatures across the whole Arctic might have an effect?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Eco-Author

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #813 on: May 20, 2019, 05:06:42 PM »
apart from say May 24th 2016, 2016's numbers were all pretty much above the line till mid June.  This is the first year I've noticed DMI above average (all be it slightly) and this seems it will continue.  Thus, first place is hardly out of reach!  Apart form the large iceburgs in Beaufort, I see a long of peripheral ice that can go quite fast.  Will this year be the first we see a spike above normal in summer??  all it takes is a day or two of a blow torch at peak insulation to set us into contention with 2012 numbers!
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

etienne

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #814 on: May 20, 2019, 07:50:02 PM »
I am JAXA addicted, so I usually cannot go to bed without looking the new data.
I understand now how it is possible that we have these datas so early in the morning.  Thanks a lot, in this season, I enjoy it almost everyday.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #815 on: May 21, 2019, 01:55:13 AM »
...large ice floes in the Beaufort...

be cause

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #816 on: May 21, 2019, 02:32:44 AM »
...large ice floes in the Beaufort..


I picked mine on the 1st of May ..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #817 on: May 21, 2019, 05:41:43 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 20th, 2019:
     11,259,122 km2, a drop of -63,972 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #818 on: May 21, 2019, 11:38:46 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,259,122 km2(May 20, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 269 k > 2016, 116 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 64 k, 8 k more than the average loss of 56 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 3,012 k, 493 k (20%) greater than the average of 2,519k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 25.5% of the melting season done, with 116 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.90 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.72 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.3 to +3.3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side.

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. However, at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are higher this year.

On average, just over 25% of the melting season is done. In a couple of weeks the June Poll?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Wipneus

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #819 on: May 21, 2019, 02:12:00 PM »
NSIDC NT sea ice extent and area in the Arctic Basin (where most of the last summer ice will be) continue to drop fast.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #820 on: May 21, 2019, 03:00:45 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,390,638 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,390,638    km2      
-386,461    km2   <   2010's average.
-275,551    k   <   2018
-807,982    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -76    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -19    k   loss
Central Seas__   -53    k   loss
Other Seas___   -4    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -18    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -14    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain

Area loss 76 k, 18 k more than the 2010's average loss of 58 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (291k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side.

Of note, is the recent increase in daily area loss in the Central  Arctic Seas - defined as the High Arctic by Tealight. At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. However, at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are considerably higher this year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #821 on: May 22, 2019, 05:44:29 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 21st, 2019:
     11,209,501 km2, a drop of -49,621 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #822 on: May 22, 2019, 12:11:41 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,209,501 km2(May 21, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 258 k > 2016, 95 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 50 k, 4 k less than the average loss of 54 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 3,062 k, 489 k (19%) greater than the average of 2,573k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 26.0% of the melting season done, with 115 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.90 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.72 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.6 to +3.2 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side (and the occasional scorcher in North West America).

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice extent loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. There are signs of increased above average AREA loss in the central seas, and at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are higher this year. Perhaps the persistent though not extreme warmth in the central arctic will do the ice a mischief. Or is it a question of sun versus cloud and mist?

From now methinks I will confine myself to the area and extent data.On average, just over 25% of the melting season is done. In a couple of weeks the June Poll?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #823 on: May 22, 2019, 02:24:16 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,330,748 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,330,748    km2      
-387,040    km2   <   2010's average.
-268,441    k   <   2018
-804,443    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -60    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -17    k   loss
Central Seas__   -45    k   loss
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -17    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -11    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain

Area loss 60 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 59 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (288k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.6 to +3.2 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side (and the occasional scorcher in North West America).

There are signs of above average AREA loss in the central seas, including those seas that must be open for the North-West Passage to be open this year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #824 on: May 23, 2019, 05:45:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 22nd, 2019:
     11,172,088 km2, a drop of -37,413 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #825 on: May 23, 2019, 06:27:33 AM »
We are approaching the time in which 2012 ASI dropped 1.13 million km2 in 9 days (an average of 125.5K km2/day).

Trying to know what it happened, it is always a great source Neven's ASI Blog.

https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/06/asi-2012-update-5-when-graphs-agree.html


There are also some interesting stories on June 2012, like the fires on Siberia...
https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/06/index.html
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #826 on: May 23, 2019, 06:41:26 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,172,088 km2(May 22, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 248 k > 2016, 97 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 37 k, 10 k less than the average loss of 47 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 3,099 k, 480 k (18%) greater than the average of 2,620k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 26.5% of the melting season done, with 114 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.91 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.73 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.6 to +3.6 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side (and the occasional scorcher in North West America).

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice extent loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. There were signs of increased above average AREA loss in the central seas, and at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are higher this year. Perhaps the persistent though not extreme warmth in the central arctic will do the ice a mischief. Or is it a question of sun versus cloud and mist, winds, currents and SSTs?

From now methinks I will confine myself to the area and extent data.On average, just over 25% of the melting season is done. In a couple of weeks the June Poll?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #827 on: May 23, 2019, 02:14:21 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,268,818 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,268,818    km2      
-385,544    km2   <   2010's average.
-265,811    k   <   2018
-797,207    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -62    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss
Central Seas__   -40    k   loss
Other Seas___   -6    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -14    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -8    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -6    k   loss
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss

Area loss 62 k, 3 k more than the 2010's average loss of 59 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (288k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.6 to +3.6 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side (and the occasional scorcher in North West America).

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice extent loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. There were signs of increased above average AREA loss in the central seas, and at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are higher this year.

Perhaps the persistent though not extreme warmth in the central arctic will do the ice a mischief. Or is it a question of sun versus cloud and mist, winds, currents and SSTs?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #828 on: May 23, 2019, 02:56:46 PM »
NSIDC data

While overall extent and area loss seems to be lagging a bit, it is a bit of a different story when just looking at the 7 Central Seas named by Tealight as the High Arctic. In these seas extent and area loss is pretty vigorous.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #829 on: May 24, 2019, 05:51:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 23rd, 2019:
     11,147,396 km2, a drop of -24,692 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #830 on: May 24, 2019, 11:12:43 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,147,396 km2(May 23, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 267 k > 2016, 79 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 25 k, 28 k less than the average loss of 53 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 3,124 k, 451 k (17%) greater than the average of 2,673k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 27.0% of the melting season done, with 113 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.94 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff

GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.7 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side (and the occasional scorcher in North West America).

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice extent loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. There were signs of increased above average AREA loss in the central seas, and at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are higher this year.

Perhaps the persistent though not extreme warmth in the central arctic will do the ice a mischief. Or is it a question of sun versus cloud and mist, winds, currents and SSTs?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

be cause

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #831 on: May 24, 2019, 12:23:05 PM »
Comparing with 2016 , it only requires a daily melt of over 52,000 km per day for the next 3 weeks for 2019 to go roaring ahead into record territory .
 Forecasts suggest we may have a chance of this happening ! .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Thawing Thunder

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #832 on: May 24, 2019, 02:15:46 PM »
While overall extent and area loss seems to be lagging a bit, it is a bit of a different story when just looking at the 7 Central Seas named by Tealight as the High Arctic. In these seas extent and area loss is pretty vigorous.

That should mean high losses in the next days and weeks when the southern ice is finally fading away.
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #833 on: May 24, 2019, 03:40:07 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,200,896 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,200,896    km2      
-392,461    km2   <   2010's average.
-282,518    k   <   2018
-795,598    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -68    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -39    k   loss
Other Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -15    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______   -10    k   loss
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -10    k   loss

Area loss 68 k, 5 k more than the 2010's average loss of 63 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (290k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.9 to +3.7 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side (and the occasional scorcher in North West America).

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice extent loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. There are signs of increased above average AREA loss in the central seas, and at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are higher this year.

Perhaps the persistent though not extreme warmth in the central arctic will do the ice a mischief. Or is it a question of sun versus cloud and mist, winds, currents and SSTs?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

jdallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #834 on: May 24, 2019, 10:25:37 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,147,396 km2(May 23, 2019)
On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.
I'm going out on a limb to predict 2019 and 2016 re-intersect sometime between June 6th and 10th.
This space for Rent.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #835 on: May 25, 2019, 06:37:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 24th, 2019:
     11,105,370 km2, a drop of -42,026 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #836 on: May 25, 2019, 09:28:42 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,105,370 km2(May 24, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 313 k > 2016, 57 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 42 k, 20 k less than the average loss of 62 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 3,188 k, 431 k (16%) greater than the average of 2,735k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 27.7% of the melting season done, with 112 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.96 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.78 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff

GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.9 to +3.7 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side (and the occasional scorcher in North West America).

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice extent loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. There were signs of increased above average AREA loss in the central seas, and at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are higher this year.

Perhaps the persistent though not extreme warmth in the central arctic will do the ice a mischief. Or is it a question of sun versus cloud and mist, winds, currents and SSTs?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #837 on: May 25, 2019, 02:14:04 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,140,479  km2
               
Total Area         
 10,140,479    km2      
-387,109    km2   <   2010's average.
-291,184    k   <   2018
-791,710    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -60    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -12    k   loss
Central Seas__   -34    k   loss
Other Seas___   -14    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -7    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -16    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -12    k   loss
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss

Area loss 60 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average loss of 61 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (303k > 2016)

Temperatures etc
No Change....
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.9 to +3.7 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side (and the occasional scorcher in North West America).

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice extent loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. There are signs of increased above average AREA loss in the central seas, and at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are higher this year.

Perhaps the persistent though not extreme warmth in the central arctic will do the ice a mischief. Or is it a question of sun versus cloud and mist, winds, currents and SSTs?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

FishOutofWater

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #838 on: May 25, 2019, 04:45:38 PM »
Much of the above normal heat has been north of the CAA where it is normally still quite cold. The effects of the persistent above normal temperatures over the Beaufort sea are manifesting now, but dispersed ice floes diminish the extent losses. It will be very interesting to see what PIOMAS calculates the volume loses were because I think the past few weeks have been bad for the ice, but the rate of extent drop has been pretty average. Of course, that's mostly explained by the very early loss of the ice on the Pacific ocean side outside of the Arctic ocean basin.

As we know from 2012, dispersal of ice in the Arctic basin can obscure the damage being done by heat in May and June. The ice was not in good shape in late May 2012 but you would never have known it from the extent data. Maybe PIOMAS will give us some more clues about what's happening now.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #839 on: May 26, 2019, 05:42:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 25th, 2019:
     11,081,708 km2, a drop of -23,662 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Human Habitat Index

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #840 on: May 26, 2019, 06:28:46 AM »
If we interpret the current set up as being analogous to 2012, then we are 700,000 in arrears at this point.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #841 on: May 26, 2019, 11:43:18 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,081,708 km2(May 25, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 377 k > 2016, 38 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 24 k, 40 k less than the average loss of 64 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 3,189 k, 391 k (14%) greater than the average of 2,799k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 28.3% of the melting season done, with 111 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.00 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.82 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff

GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.1 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side (and the occasional scorcher in North West America).

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice extent loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. There were signs of increased above average AREA loss in the central seas, and at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are higher this year.

Perhaps the persistent though not extreme warmth in the central arctic will do the ice a mischief. Or is it a question of sun versus cloud and mist, winds, currents and SSTs?

I admit to recently succumbing to a sense of déjà vu, with at or below average extent loss while over on the melting season thread multiple posts of imminent doom in just a few days from now.
We will see.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #842 on: May 26, 2019, 02:21:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 May 2019 (5 day trailing average) 10,081,559 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,081,559    km2      
-382,112    km2   <   2010's average.
-295,394    k   <   2018
-781,988    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -59    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas__   -41    k   loss
Other Seas___   -10    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -16    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -9    k   loss

Area loss 59 k, 7 k less than the 2010's average loss of 66 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (320 k > 2016)

Temperatures etc
No Significant Change....
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.1 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side (and the occasional scorcher in North West America).

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice extent loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. There are signs of increased above average AREA loss in the central seas, and at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are higher this year.

Perhaps the persistent though not extreme warmth in the central arctic will do the ice a mischief. Or is it a question of sun versus cloud and mist, winds, currents and SSTs?

Déjà vu ? At or below average extent loss while over on the melting season thread multiple posts of imminent doom in just a few days from now. We will see.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #843 on: May 26, 2019, 03:50:12 PM »
I can't help it but somehow that '2017 feeling' returns with constant at or below extent and area losses - independent from the postings in the "melting season thread" that claim how vulnerable the ice is and which sea will lose its ice in the next couple of weeks...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

JayW

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #844 on: May 26, 2019, 04:03:17 PM »
"Compactness" running on the low side.
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

jdallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #845 on: May 26, 2019, 10:11:40 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,081,708 km2(May 25, 2019)

I admit to recently succumbing to a sense of déjà vu, with at or below average extent loss while over on the melting season thread multiple posts of imminent doom in just a few days from now.
We will see.
Less imminent doom, rather more terror that the weather won't save us again this year.  Doom has been hanging over us for some time, much like Damocles's sword.

As you imply, it hinges on the weather - where the balance between sun vs clouds/mist/fog lands.
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pauldry600

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #846 on: May 26, 2019, 10:39:58 PM »
We are ok for about 25 years but then doomed if graphs follow their long term trend.

FishOutofWater

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #847 on: May 26, 2019, 11:20:30 PM »
The extent declines have been slow because all the easy ice on the Pacific side was gone very early and because the ice margins have large areas of dispersed ice.

If the weather in June and July is like 2017 expect a similar outcome. Most of the melting season is ahead of us. We know the ice is in trouble on a decadal scale, but we cannot predict reliably what July's weather will be.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #848 on: May 27, 2019, 05:47:01 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 26th, 2019:
     11,063,862 km2, a drop of -17,846 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #849 on: May 27, 2019, 11:28:41 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,063,862 km2(May 26, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 412 k > 2016, 24 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 18 k, 30 k less than the average loss of 48 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 3,207 k, 360 k (13%) greater than the average of 2,847k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 28.8% of the melting season done, with 110 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.03 million km2, 3rd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.85 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff

GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.2 to +3.1 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic.

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice extent loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. There were signs of increased above average AREA loss in the central seas, and at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are higher this year.

Perhaps the persistent though not extreme warmth in the central arctic will do the ice a mischief. Or is it a question of sun versus cloud and mist, winds, currents and SSTs?

I continue to succumb to a sense of déjà vu, with at or below average extent loss while over on the melting season thread multiple posts of imminent doom in just a few days from now.
We will see.
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