JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,012,077 km2(May 27, 2019)
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 381 k > 2016, 36 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 52 k, 7 k more than the average loss of 45 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 3,259 k, 367 k (13%) greater than the average of 2,892k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 29.3% of the melting season done, with 109 days to average date of minimum (13 September).
The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.02 million km2, 3rd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.84 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.
Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.9 to +3.1 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, a little bit cooler every day.
At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice extent loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. There were signs of increased above average AREA loss in the central seas, and at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are higher this year.
Perhaps the persistent though not extreme warmth in the central arctic will do the ice a mischief. Or is it a question of sun versus cloud and mist, winds, currents and SSTs?
I continue to succumb to a sense of déjà vu, with at or below average extent loss while over on the melting season thread multiple posts of imminent doom in just a few days from now.
We will see.