A book-keeper's response (Be humble, Gero, be humble)
Someone posted that without my postings, there would be no thread.
NOT TRUE. I've only been around for a couple of years on this forum.
Many have exhausted themselves putting info on this thread before myself and Juan, and many more will do so in the future.
The title of the thread is "
2019 sea ice area and extent data", not "When will the Arctic Go Ice-Free".
My guess on the latter is a BOE before 2030 - but mainly based on volume declining much faster than area, leading to a tipping point when average thickness is low enough for a massive area loss. But that discussion belongs on the other threads.
I believe a BOE this year is in the realms of vanishing probabilities. History does give us the limits of melting from now to minimum.
- The maximum is about 23% above (the 10 year) average - in 2012 - but from a starting extent nearly 0.8 million km2 above 2019's extent as of now. Even this would give a minimum of 2.45 million km2, hardly a BOE.
- The next highest melt from now was in 2007, +9.5% above average, giving a minimum of 3.3 million km2, just above the 2012 record low of 3.18 million km2.
- The 5 previous years melt from now were all below average.
- Temperatures, though above average and over the entire Arctic Ocean, are not hugely so.
-And, yesterday Tealight updated his May volume stuff on
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/SIT.html Volume about 3rd lowest, average thickness up at 1.8 meters.
So, what is my guess for the immediate future. Melt will continue, at average, or maybe a bit above. One or more seas (e.g. the Chukchi) will accelerate their change from ice deserts (with occasional open water periods) to open water seas (with occasional icy periods).
Armageddon will be postponed for another year, though a second lowest minimum is on the cards.
20122012 did its first collapse in JAXA extent from the 5th to the 13th June. On the 5th I will change graph Arc2 to show the 2012 daily change and dump 2016.
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The book-keeper returns to his quill pen and Kalamazoo ledger
And that's all I am going to say about that