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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #950 on: June 03, 2019, 05:41:16 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 2nd, 2019:
     10,593,671 km2, a drop of -77,454 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #951 on: June 03, 2019, 10:01:17 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 10,593,671 km2(June 2, 2019)

A second day of well above average extent losses.
 
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 219 k > 2016, 142 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 77  k, 23 k more  than the average loss of 54 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 3,677 k, 478 k (15%) greater than the average of 3,199k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 32.4% of the melting season done, with 103 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.91 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.73 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt only gives a result of 4.16 million km2, 4th lowest.0.98 million km2 above 2012.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2.
On the 5th June that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner on daily extent losses for the remainder of the melting season.

Other Stuff

GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.6 to +3.1.

I suggest a look at "Test Space" - A-Team has done a post on the ice-pack movement this year.
Maybe it's the evidence that something major is underway. Not so much "the end of the beginning" but "the beginning of the end"?

Nevertheless, so far data points towards a 2nd lowest minimum well above 2012.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #952 on: June 03, 2019, 02:33:31 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,591,857  km2
               
Total Area         
 9,591,857    km2      
-354,268    km2   <   2010's average.
-221,856    k   <   2018
-809,808    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -65    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -23    k   loss
Central Seas__   -29    k   loss
Other Seas___   -13    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -15    k   loss
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -10    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -8    k   loss

Area loss 65 k, 8 k MORE than the 2010's average loss of 57 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (311 k > 2016)

Temperatures etc
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.6 to +3.1.  The sheer persistence of above average temperatures across most of the Arctic that has existed for a good while, should reinforce that 2019 will be a continuation of the 2010's decadal decline in sea ice extent and area.

Caveat: Note that daily sea ice area loss is just about to enter the peak season, as must 2019 to stay in contact with 2016 and 2012.

The chances of the North-West passage being open this year seem to improve all the time although the CAA loss has stalled, in contrast to the Russian side, with ice piling up in the ESS.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #953 on: June 04, 2019, 12:28:47 AM »
At this date in 2012 there was strong evidence of warmth and early melt ponds but the sea ice extent was close to the average for the previous decade. No one could have foreseen the June cliff and GAC that led to the record minimum in September. It was shocking to witness.

We have no reason to predict a June cliff like 2012, or a GAC this year, but extent loss is way ahead of 2012 at this date. Perils of projections, indeed. We have no good basis at this time for saying that this year is likely headed for second place. No weather model is good enough to predict a GAC or lack of one in August of 2019.

If we look at Nico Sun's albedo warming potential this year is way ahead of 2012 for this date. What happened in mid June through August 2012 was completely unprecedented and we cannot anticipate its recurrence. However, this year could see a record minimum if the present sea ice transport and high pressure patterns persist.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #954 on: June 04, 2019, 02:21:20 AM »
At this date in 2012 there was strong evidence of warmth and early melt ponds but the sea ice extent was close to the average for the previous decade. No one could have foreseen the June cliff and GAC that led to the record minimum in September. It was shocking to witness.

We have no reason to predict a June cliff like 2012, or a GAC this year, but extent loss is way ahead of 2012 at this date. Perils of projections, indeed. We have no good basis at this time for saying that this year is likely headed for second place. No weather model is good enough to predict a GAC or lack of one in August of 2019.

If we look at Nico Sun's albedo warming potential this year is way ahead of 2012 for this date. What happened in mid June through August 2012 was completely unprecedented and we cannot anticipate its recurrence. However, this year could see a record minimum if the present sea ice transport and high pressure patterns persist.

I completely agree with your post FOW.

That said, according to Neven's ruling yesterday, we are not supposed to disagree with Gerontocrat's predictions in this thread.

The correct procedure according to Neven's is to copy and paste Gero's comment into another relevant thread (in this case probably the melting season thread) and respond to him there.


Rodius

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #955 on: June 04, 2019, 04:55:30 AM »
At this date in 2012 there was strong evidence of warmth and early melt ponds but the sea ice extent was close to the average for the previous decade. No one could have foreseen the June cliff and GAC that led to the record minimum in September. It was shocking to witness.

We have no reason to predict a June cliff like 2012, or a GAC this year, but extent loss is way ahead of 2012 at this date. Perils of projections, indeed. We have no good basis at this time for saying that this year is likely headed for second place. No weather model is good enough to predict a GAC or lack of one in August of 2019.

If we look at Nico Sun's albedo warming potential this year is way ahead of 2012 for this date. What happened in mid June through August 2012 was completely unprecedented and we cannot anticipate its recurrence. However, this year could see a record minimum if the present sea ice transport and high pressure patterns persist.

I completely agree with your post FOW.

That said, according to Neven's ruling yesterday, we are not supposed to disagree with Gerontocrat's predictions in this thread.

The correct procedure according to Neven's is to copy and paste Gero's comment into another relevant thread (in this case probably the melting season thread) and respond to him there.

Can you please stop with the snarky comments and move on from it?

Rich

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #956 on: June 04, 2019, 05:36:38 AM »
 There's zero snark in my comment. FOW is in the same place I was yesterday and I am just fast forwarding him to Neven's conclusion which he may not have had a chance to read.

wdmn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #957 on: June 04, 2019, 06:55:50 AM »
In case Juan can't make it tonight (JAXA was very late in posting):

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 3rd, 2019:
     10,558,744 km2, a drop of -34,927 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.

binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #958 on: June 04, 2019, 07:28:53 AM »
That said, according to Neven's ruling yesterday, we are not supposed to disagree with Gerontocrat's predictions in this thread.

The correct procedure according to Neven's is to copy and paste Gero's comment into another relevant thread (in this case probably the melting season thread) and respond to him there.

This is childish. Please stop.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #959 on: June 04, 2019, 07:33:32 AM »
In case Juan can't make it tonight (JAXA was very late in posting):

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 3rd, 2019:
     10,558,744 km2, a drop of -34,927 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.

Thank you for posting the data, wdmn.
I came late to home, so this is the reason for not posting it before.
It is good if you or someone else make the post if I am delay.  :)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

wdmn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #960 on: June 04, 2019, 07:46:26 AM »
Juan, I know we all appreciate how reliable you are! And I cannot replicate your graphs or tables, so will always delete if you post later.

Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #961 on: June 04, 2019, 11:25:10 AM »
There's zero snark in my comment. FOW is in the same place I was yesterday and I am just fast forwarding him to Neven's conclusion which he may not have had a chance to read.

But did FOoW reply to Gerontocrat? His comment perhaps fitted the melting season thread better, but either way, FOoW is also one of those people who gets more leeway, due to past contributions and behaviour.

Next meta-discussion comments will be removed.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #962 on: June 04, 2019, 12:21:18 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 10,777,542 km2(June 3, 2019)
 
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 208 k > 2016, 133 k < 2018, 795k < 2012.
- Extent loss on this day 35  k, 7 k less than the average loss on this day of 42k.
- Extent loss from maximum 3,712 k, 471 k (15%) greater than the average of 3,241k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 32.8% of the melting season done, with 102 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.92 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.74 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt only gives a result of 4.17 million km2, 4th lowest, .0.99 million km2 above 2012.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2.

On the 5th June that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner on daily extent losses for the remainder of the melting season.

Other Stuff

GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.4 to +3.0, the +ve anomaly range gradually reducing over the last few days.

I suggest a look at "Test Space" - A-Team has done a post on the ice-pack movement this year.
Maybe it's the evidence that something major is underway. Not so much "the end of the beginning" but "the beginning of the end"?

Nevertheless, so far average remaining melt data points towards a 2nd lowest minimum well above 2012. However, just under 1/3rd of the average melt for the season completed.
_________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 03:16:28 PM by gerontocrat »
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Phil.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #963 on: June 04, 2019, 12:36:41 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 10,777,542 km2(June 3, 2019)

A second day of well above average extent losses.
 
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 208 k > 2016, 133 k < 2018, 795k < 2012.
- Extent loss on this day 35  k, 7 k less than the average loss on this day of 42k.
_________________________________________________
There's an inconsistency here, presumably a hold over from previous posting, not "well above average extent losses"?  Since extent loss today was lower than the average for the day.

stjuuv

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #964 on: June 04, 2019, 01:43:39 PM »
I'm going out on a limb to predict 2019 and 2016 re-intersect sometime between June 6th and 10th.
June 6th looking quite unlikely, as it would need an average extent drop of about 148k over the next 3 days. June 10th would need about 84k/day over the next 7 days.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #965 on: June 04, 2019, 03:17:41 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 10,777,542 km2(June 3, 2019)

A second day of well above average extent losses.
 
There's an inconsistency here, presumably a hold over from previous posting, not "well above average extent losses"?  Since extent loss today was lower than the average for the day.
Well spotted. I need a holiday or a brain transplant.
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Archimid

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #966 on: June 04, 2019, 03:22:08 PM »
If you opt for a transplant, do you have plans for the old brain? Asking for a friend.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #967 on: June 04, 2019, 03:26:16 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,535,216   km2
               
Total Area         
 9,535,216    km2      
-339,458    km2   <   2010's average.
-209,527    k   <   2018
-798,749    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -57    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss
Central Seas__   -23    k   loss
Other Seas___   -18    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________    7    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______   -10    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss

Area loss 57 k, 11 k LESS than the 2010's average loss of 68 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (330 k > 2016)

Temperatures etc
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.5 to +3.0, a gradual reduction over the last few days.

The chances of the North-West passage being open this year seem to have stabilised.
The CAA and now the Chukchi loss has stalled and the Beaufort area loss has slowed.

On the Russian side, ice continues to pile up in the ESS.

Note that daily sea ice area loss is entering the peak season, as must 2019 to stay in contact with 2016 and 2012.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 04:24:44 PM by gerontocrat »
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #968 on: June 04, 2019, 04:15:04 PM »
<snip; N.>
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 04:21:16 PM by Neven »

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #969 on: June 04, 2019, 04:35:48 PM »

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.92 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.74 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt only gives a result of 4.17 million km2, 4th lowest, .0.99 million km2 above 2012.


Have a question.

Do you think the 5 year average remaining melt more accurately captures what we can expect, given that the more recent years start out with lower extent at maximum. The Bering always melts out so the low extent at the beginning of the melt season in this sea would cause the average daily melt for the season to be lower.

Of course, this still allows for weather to trump everything.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 07:13:01 PM by Shared Humanity »

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #970 on: June 05, 2019, 05:47:30 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 4th, 2019:
     10,525,158 km2, a drop of -33,586 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #971 on: June 05, 2019, 06:02:37 AM »
Juan, I know we all appreciate how reliable you are! And I cannot replicate your graphs or tables, so will always delete if you post later.
I think that the best part of my posts is that they are made half an hour later than the ADS NIPR VISHOP data release. I will continue trying to make them as soon as possible, but some days it is difficult to make it in that time frame. So, I think that it is good for the ASIF if someone else makes the post, if I haven’t made it at 4:15 UTC (13:15 Tokyo time).
I really appreciate your post and you don’t have to delete it. Even that my table and graph doesn’t come out, Gerontocrat post has the information with a better analysis and he usually post it a couple of hours later.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2019, 06:26:11 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Rod

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #972 on: June 05, 2019, 06:20:20 AM »
Thank you so much for what you do Juan!  The last thing I do every night before I go to bed is check for your post.  If It gets difficult for you to post the numbers we all understand. 

Thank you again for your great contributions to this forum!


gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #973 on: June 05, 2019, 10:11:31 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 10,525,158 km2(June 4, 2019)
 
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 171 k > 2016, 125 k < 2018, 828k < 2012.
- Extent loss on this day 34  k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day of 37k.
- Extent loss from maximum 3,746 k, 468 k (14%) greater than the average of 3,278k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 33.2% of the melting season done, with 101 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.92 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.74 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt only gives a result of 4.17 million km2, 4th lowest, .0.99 million km2 above 2012.

EDIT
On the 5th June, on graph Arc2, 2016 daily change IS replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner on daily extent losses for the remainder of the melting season.

But 2016 is retained on graph Arc4 as it is the front-runner for one month more.

Other Stuff

GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.3 to +3.0, the +ve anomaly range gradually cooling over the last few days.

So far average remaining melt data points towards a 2nd lowest minimum well above 2012. However, only 1/3rd of the average melt for the season completed.
_________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: June 05, 2019, 12:53:00 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #974 on: June 05, 2019, 11:49:58 AM »

Have a question.

Do you think the 5 year average remaining melt more accurately captures what we can expect, given that the more recent years start out with lower extent at maximum. The Bering always melts out so the low extent at the beginning of the melt season in this sea would cause the average daily melt for the season to be lower.

Of course, this still allows for weather to trump everything.
One thing is for sure, 2012 melt was very large and started very late, so from now is 24% above the 9 years of the 2010's average remaining melt. The last 5 years average excludes 2012 melt. So the 2012 outlier is a major (the main?) reason for the last 5 years being a lower average melt from now.

As for any other reason? Arctic air temperatures are rising faster than any where else in the world. The oceans are warming. Sea ice minimum volume declines at an average of almost 2 % (of the 1980 value) per annum. And yet, apart from 2012, extent minimum refuses to go below 4 million km2.

Something's gotta give, sometime. This year?
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be cause

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #975 on: June 05, 2019, 12:10:11 PM »
.. hi .. Gerontocrat .. I would appeal for 2016 to remain .. it is still the front runner for the next month . 2018 on the other hand .. :) . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #976 on: June 05, 2019, 12:43:05 PM »
Quote
And yet, apart from 2012, extent minimum refuses to go below 4 million km2.
Extent is not the only metric there is, and the least important IMHO, though easiest to measure. Ice area has not been idle since 2012, as 2016 showed. Especially when looking at AMSR2 data, sadly not available before 2012.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #977 on: June 05, 2019, 12:55:19 PM »
.. hi .. Gerontocrat .. I would appeal for 2016 to remain .. it is still the front runner for the next month . 2018 on the other hand .. :) . b.c.
I am keeping 2016 on graph Arc4.
The change is to the daily change graph Arc2. Adding any more years makes it look a total mess.
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Clenchie

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #978 on: June 05, 2019, 12:58:15 PM »
Quote
And yet, apart from 2012, extent minimum refuses to go below 4 million km2.
Extent is not the only metric there is, and the least important IMHO, though easiest to measure. Ice area has not been idle since 2012, as 2016 showed. Especially when looking at AMSR2 data, sadly not available before 2012.

I am no expert but I guess extent is a rough indication as to the state of the ice, area a better one and volume the best of the lot, but maybe it could be rather difficult to collect accurate volume data.  By the way, many thanks to all the experts on this forum for their explanations and insights, particularly when interpreting the weather forecasts.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #979 on: June 05, 2019, 02:14:21 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,477,805 km2
               
Total Area         
 9,477,805    km2      
-324,916    km2   <   2010's average.
-202,206    k   <   2018
-791,633    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -57    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss
Central Seas__   -18    k   loss
Other Seas___   -24    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss
CAA_________    5    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -13    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -19    k   loss

Area loss 57 k, 14 k LESS than the 2010's average loss of 71 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (341 k > 2016)

Temperatures etc
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.4 to +3.0, a gradual reduction over the last few days.

Note that daily sea ice area loss is entering the peak season, as must 2019 to stay in contact with 2016 and 2012 (just about to fall over the cliff).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #980 on: June 05, 2019, 09:45:08 PM »
I took the monthly extent value for May 2019 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average May extent is now 13,15 M km². May 2019 had an average extent of 12,16 M km², which is 0,99 M km² less than that average.
In May 2019 the difference to the red linear trend line is increased to +0,14 M km² (calculated from the trend line this May should have been at 13,01 M km²) and again (like many other months before except for April 2019 and October 2018) above it. To get again close to that long-term trend line June 2019 will need a "June 2012 like cliff" which I will not forecast at this time.
The slope of the overall trend line has not changed in comparison with April 2019.

See attached graph.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #981 on: June 05, 2019, 09:59:08 PM »
I've often wondered about the dramatic drop in variability in the anomalies in the decade between 1997 and 2007.

petm

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #982 on: June 05, 2019, 10:10:10 PM »
I've often wondered about the dramatic drop in variability in the anomalies in the decade between 1997 and 2007.

Followed by a period of seemingly elevated variability. State changes in the ice or weather (not necessarily separate)?

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #983 on: June 05, 2019, 10:14:38 PM »
I explain it that way:
The August/Sept/Oct (ASO) (minimum) decrease from the 1980s to the 2010s is larger than the decrease of the other months. Therefore the anomalies from the average in ASO are larger at the beginning (positive spikes) and at the end (negative spikes) of this time series than in the centre of the graph. Around 2000 these anomalies are not so prominent, as they represent more or less the average of the whole data pack.

petm

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #984 on: June 05, 2019, 10:20:37 PM »
Makes sense. But in addition, there does also seem to be some sort of local discontinuity between different segments of years. Possibly stochastic.

bbr2314

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #985 on: June 06, 2019, 12:46:13 AM »
I've often wondered about the dramatic drop in variability in the anomalies in the decade between 1997 and 2007.
I would suggest that it was due to rising / exploding SO2 emissions from China and other developing countries negating the impact of rising CO2 / GHGs. 2007 marked the start of the global economic crisis. I wonder if an impending global recession would correlate with another occurrence.

Shipping is / was especially "dirty" and SO2 emitting, and it tanked tremendously in 2006-2007-2008, maybe this was also a principal or significant cause of 2007 -> 2012. (?)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #986 on: June 06, 2019, 05:47:10 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 5th, 2019:
     10,481,173 km2, a drop of -43,985 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #987 on: June 06, 2019, 06:09:36 AM »
I made an analysis today, with the drops from June 4th to June 13th. It is interesting, because 2012 drops an average of 125.5K km2 on these 9 days, while the leader [2016] only drops 28.18K km2.

The result: 2016 continues to be the lowest on record on June 13th, but 2012 changes from being the 12th lowest on record, to become the 2nd lowest.

More interesting, 2019 needs to drop an average of 47.2 K km2, to become the lowest on record on June 13th. Will it happen? Today’s drop of 44 K km2 is only 3.2K km2 lower of what it is needed.

I think that 2019 can be the lowest on record on June 13th. Any bets?   8)


Edit: The true is that I am concerned. Not a smile at all.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 06:46:30 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

miki

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #988 on: June 06, 2019, 06:14:19 AM »
I think that 2019 can be the lowest on record on June 13th. Any bets?   8)

Melt ponding and cyclone considering... aye, it could be.

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #989 on: June 06, 2019, 07:31:48 AM »
I got this funny feeling 2019 will manage to squeeze between 2012 and 2016 on that date...

be cause

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #990 on: June 06, 2019, 11:01:35 AM »
if the forecast warmth gets to the hundreds of thousands of kms of thin new ice off the Laptev and ESS then we could have open seas from the Lena to the Mackenzie deltas in a week . That would guarantee 2019's lead .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Thawing Thunder

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #991 on: June 06, 2019, 11:35:14 AM »
I think that 2019 can be the lowest on record on June 13th. Any bets?   8)

My best guess for that position: June 27th.
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #992 on: June 06, 2019, 11:44:55 AM »
I think 2019 will have less ice than 2012 when this thread ends on Dec 31, 2019.

meddoc

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #993 on: June 06, 2019, 12:29:43 PM »
I think 2019 will have less ice than 2012 when this thread ends on Dec 31, 2019.

Duuuh...
Melting Season ends 21st Sptember +/- 1,5- 2,5 weeks.
Nevertheless, agree.

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #994 on: June 06, 2019, 01:01:42 PM »
I think that 2019 can be the lowest on record on June 13th. Any bets?   8)

I've thought since '19 became 2nd (mostly) that the trend led to a convergence again in the 1st or 2nd week of June. Gun to head, I'd say it may happen between the 11th and 13th.

This based on nothing but long-term trends, patterns, etc. All the years converge during June and July for some reason.

My hunch - not a prediction bc I do that early July - is 2nd place for the melt min., closer to 2016 than 2012 because of the relatively consistent behavior so far and overall weakness we are seeing and what *seems* like somewhat high export. A summer like '12 or '07 would make things very, very interesting, though.

Rodius

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #995 on: June 06, 2019, 01:21:48 PM »
I think 2019 will have less ice than 2012 when this thread ends on Dec 31, 2019.

I am fairly sure that has been the case every year since 2012.

EDIT: Not quite, I was thinking maximums. But still, most years on Dec 31

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #996 on: June 06, 2019, 02:26:17 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 10,481,173 km2(June 5, 2019)
 
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 128 k > 2016, 104 k < 2018, 786 k < 2012.
- Extent loss on this day 44  k, 21 k less than the average loss on this day of 65k.
- Extent loss from maximum 3,790 k, 447 k (13%) greater than the average of 3,343k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 33.8% of the melting season done, with 100 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.94 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt only gives a result of 4.19 million km2, 4th lowest, 1.01 million km2 above 2012.

Other Stuff

GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.5 to +2.9.

So far average remaining melt data points towards a 2nd lowest minimum well above 2012. However, only 1/3rd of the average melt in the season completed.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #997 on: June 06, 2019, 03:03:56 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,422,921 km2
               
Total Area         
 9,422,921    km2      
-301,815    km2   <   2010's average.
-183,750    k   <   2018
-782,201    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -55    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -12    k   loss
Central Seas__   -24    k   loss
Other Seas___   -19    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -9    k   loss
CAA_________    5    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______   -14    k   loss
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -13    k   loss

Area loss 55 k, 17 k LESS than the 2010's average loss of 72 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (355 k > 2016)

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.5 to +2.9, spread over most of the Arctic

Recent daily area losses consistently a bit lower than average.

Note that daily sea ice area loss is entering the peak season, as must 2019 to stay in contact with 2016 and 2012 (just about to fall over the cliff).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #998 on: June 06, 2019, 03:11:17 PM »
The St Lawrence. This little sea ignores AGW, variations in weather, ocean currents, et al and after dithering around since the middle of April, finally gives up the last of its sea ice (as near as dammit) on the same day every year - or is it NSIDC changing the mask?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Klondike Kat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #999 on: June 06, 2019, 03:17:01 PM »
The St Lawrence. This little sea ignores AGW, variations in weather, ocean currents, et al and after dithering around since the middle of April, finally gives up the last of its sea ice (as near as dammit) on the same day every year - or is it NSIDC changing the mask?

Truly astounding!  It is as if someone is turning on the faucet on the same day each year.