JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 10,777,542 km2(June 3, 2019)
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 208 k > 2016, 133 k < 2018, 795k < 2012.
- Extent loss on this day 35 k, 7 k less than the average loss on this day of 42k.
- Extent loss from maximum 3,712 k, 471 k (15%) greater than the average of 3,241k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 32.8% of the melting season done, with 102 days to average date of minimum (13 September).
The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.92 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.74 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt only gives a result of 4.17 million km2, 4th lowest, .0.99 million km2 above 2012.
On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2.
On the 5th June that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner on daily extent losses for the remainder of the melting season.
Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.4 to +3.0, the +ve anomaly range gradually reducing over the last few days.
I suggest a look at "Test Space" - A-Team has done a post on the ice-pack movement this year.
Maybe it's the evidence that something major is underway. Not so much "the end of the beginning" but "the beginning of the end"?
Nevertheless, so far average remaining melt data points towards a 2nd lowest minimum well above 2012. However, just under 1/3rd of the average melt for the season completed.
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