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Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1200 on: June 16, 2019, 11:59:09 AM »
Eyeballing from "Monitor View":
A big decrease in Laptev and slight increases in Beaufort, Baffin, Barents/Kara may end up in a small change in sea ice extent on June 15. But my guess may be proven wrong tomorrow...

Sambuccu

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1201 on: June 16, 2019, 02:00:32 PM »
Daily NSIDC area drops again rather sharply, by 137k.
8 june : 9.273
15 june : 8.268

A drop of 1.005Mkm2 in 1 week.

Edit :
In 2012, intense drop lasted 9 days.
5 june : 9.653
14 june : 8.049
A drop of 1.6Mkm2 in 9 days...

13 june 2012, area was 8.241Mkm2, so we are roughly 2 days late in comparison.


« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 02:40:33 PM by Sambuccu »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1202 on: June 16, 2019, 02:24:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,510,663 km2
               
Total Area         
 8,510,663    km2      
-338,288    km2   <   2010's average.
-410,466    k   <   2018
-1,000,320    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -138    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -29    k   loss
Central Seas__   -102    k   loss
Other Seas___   -7    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -21    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -13    k   loss
East Siberian__   -21    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -22    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
Laptev_______   -27    k   loss
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss

Area loss 138 k, 38 K MORE than the 2010's average loss of 100 k on this day.
Total area still 3rd lowest (just) (13 k greater than 2016, and 245 k greater than 2012).
 
Other Stuff
GFS showing more logical temperature anomalies at +1.4 to +2.2 degrees celsius

However, the images still suggest high +ve anomalies at various times along most of  the coastal fringes of the entire coastal fringe of the Arctic Ocean, except for contrasting and strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and sea by and in the Beaufort and the Kara Seas.

We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until mid or late July.
The area data is converging strongly to the extent data.
_______________________________________________________________
Interesting times over the next few days? I still think that for myself from now on I will only call Arctic Ice lowest when JAXA extent and NSIDC extent and NSIDC area all show it.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1203 on: June 16, 2019, 03:14:05 PM »
Eyeballing from "Monitor View":
A big decrease in Laptev and slight increases in Beaufort, Baffin, Barents/Kara may end up in a small change in sea ice extent on June 15. But my guess may be proven wrong tomorrow...
According to Wipneus June 15th saw a drop of around ~100k in UH AMSR2 extent and area, with about half of it in the Laptev.
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/uh_am2_arc_summary.txt?attredirects=0&d=1

Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1204 on: June 16, 2019, 03:15:37 PM »
Daily NSIDC area drops again rather sharply, by 137k.

Indeed, but as it is accompanied by a 91K drop in extent, compactness 'only' drops 0.6%. The drop is still steep, but slightly less so:
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Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1205 on: June 16, 2019, 03:41:14 PM »
Anybody knows the entries to the Sea Ice Prediction Network for this year? Also, the site seems down:
https://www.arcus.org/sipn

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1206 on: June 16, 2019, 03:47:02 PM »
And since I can't post the JAXA extent graph, here is the NSIDC Daily (NOT 5 day) Extent raph.

Note that the 1980's average has the wobbles, caused by NSIDC only posting data once every 2 days until the late 1980's. Even using a cleverer average formula (combining sum and countif) will not fix it.

Also note the 1st June and 1st July dips as the masks are changed.

The 2019 line has turned around - how quickly will it fall from now?
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epiphyte

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1207 on: June 16, 2019, 10:51:27 PM »

13 june 2012, area was 8.241Mkm2, so we are roughly 2 days late in comparison.

2012 was a leap year :)

Steven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1208 on: June 16, 2019, 11:22:39 PM »
Anybody knows the entries to the Sea Ice Prediction Network for this year? Also, the site seems down:
https://www.arcus.org/sipn

There's an archived version of their website here.  According to the "tentative schedule" section, the June SIPN report would be released on Friday 21 June 2019.

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1209 on: June 17, 2019, 01:22:07 AM »
Anybody knows the entries to the Sea Ice Prediction Network for this year? Also, the site seems down:
https://www.arcus.org/sipn

There's an archived version of their website here.  According to the "tentative schedule" section, the June SIPN report would be released on Friday 21 June 2019.
Thank you Steven  :) Probably the website will be ready for the report release.
Given that the submission deadline was about when the current area crash started, we should decrement at least 250k to ALL predictions greater than 250k km2. I guess that means to all predictions.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1210 on: June 17, 2019, 05:48:05 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 15th, 2019:
     10,187,233 km2, a drop of -25,867 km2.
     
June 16th, 2019:
     10,148,907 km2, a drop of -38,326 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1211 on: June 17, 2019, 07:20:10 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  10,148,907 km2(June 16, 2019)

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 38 k, 31 k less than the average loss on this day of 69 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 4.122 k, 132 k (3 %) greater than the average of 3,990 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 40.4% of the melting season done, with 89 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.26 million km2, 5th lowest in the satellite record, and 1.01 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.38 million km2, 6th lowest, 1.21 million km2 above 2012.

Other Stuff

GFS showing more logical temperature anomalies at +1.3 to +2.3 degrees celsius. The images suggest high +ve anomalies at various times along most of  the coastal fringes of the entire coastal fringe of the Arctic Ocean, except for contrasting and strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and sea by and in the Beaufort and the Kara Seas.

Daily extent loss has been below average for the last 2 weeks. Melt is now only marginally above average. Average remaining melt data still points towards minimum well above 2012 and 2nd to 5th lowest. 2/5ths of the average melt in the season is now completed.
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Ktb

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1212 on: June 17, 2019, 08:14:08 AM »
Bimonthly BOE evaluation

June 15 extent was 10,187,233 km^2. With on average 90 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -102,080 km^2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1). That's it guys, pack it in, we now require a century drop per day.

Total extent loss thus far in June 2019 was -620,026 km^2. And total extent loss so far this season is -4,122,214 km^2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -42,940 km^2. (See Attachment 2). 

Looking only at the month of June, we have averaged -38,752 km^2 per day. This average daily drop places June 2019 as 13th out of 13 (2007-2019) in average daily June melt. (See Attachment 3).

And for comparisons to other years:

As an aside, for a BOE to occur at this point, we would need to have the strongest June melt for the years 2007-2018 (and likely ever since the satellite record began), an above average July melt, the strongest August melt, and the strongest September 1st to minimum.

As I had mentioned previously, for a BOE to occur we would need the strongest June melt since at least 2007. Instead we have witnessed a well below average 15 days.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 05:59:40 PM by Ktb »
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FishOutofWater

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1213 on: June 17, 2019, 11:48:28 AM »
What we have watched for the past week is a large-scale dispersion of ice, especially in the Beaufort sea. It will be very interesting to see the PIOMAS figures. We have observed very warm temperatures in the high Arctic, wide-scale melt ponds and massive melting in the Laptev sea while cyclones spread the ice out at the margins of the central pack.

Melting has sped up over the past week, not slowed down but the extent data don't show it because of the dispersion caused by the storms. In fact, the ice in the Alaskan side of the CAA looks like it was bombed into rubble. but there has been an increase in extent in the CAA and Beaufort sea because of the storm.

The volume of ice on the Canadian side was too high going into the melt season for a "blue ocean event" this year, but the extent figures do not indicate a slowdown in melting. The area figures belie that interpretation. They slow extent drop in the first half of June indicates dispersion.

That ice that has been dispersed into the Beaufort sea is undergoing bottom melting in the warm water. As long as the air temperatures stay warm and the skies stay relatively sunny, expect a large extent drop to begin soon as large areas of dispersed ice melt out completely.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1214 on: June 17, 2019, 12:50:22 PM »
I'd tend to agree F.O.O.W., the 'collapse and spread' , well 'fragment and spread' messes with the numbers as ice flows into open water and forces it to be counted as 'ice covered as 15%+ now holds ice.

Those ice edges will quickly blink out as the warmed ocean melts these stray floes.

Sadly the breakup will lead to floes being at the mercy of wind and wave and dome peripheral sea areas have been warming since near season's start sdo 'kill zones' for wandering ice must now be building?

Upthread the BOE calcs now need over 100km a day for the rest of the season to become a BOE.

I might find this 'supposed slowdown' in ice loss as doing for the chances of such and event this season but then if 70% of the 'measured' peripheral ice is merely an illusion due to the shortfalls of the 15%+ measuring system then that 'loss required' will be less than what is currently posted. On top of that if ice levels go really low then the 'end' of similar thickness floes will lead to some huge loss days and the flip side of the 15% or more with isolated floes being ignored in the measure?
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Peter Ellis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1215 on: June 17, 2019, 01:08:36 PM »
So why the sudden, weird gain in extent?  A rapid flash refreezing of this thin layer of surface water on the fast ice (which might occur simply if temps drop overnight [...]
Agreed that this could be local temperature variations (or sun angle, or cloud interference).  However it's not day/night effects. It's almost Midsummer Day and you're looking north of the Arctic Circle.  There IS no "overnight", the sun is up 24/7.

Pagophilus

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1216 on: June 17, 2019, 02:10:18 PM »
So why the sudden, weird gain in extent?  A rapid flash refreezing of this thin layer of surface water on the fast ice (which might occur simply if temps drop overnight [...]
Agreed that this could be local temperature variations (or sun angle, or cloud interference).  However it's not day/night effects. It's almost Midsummer Day and you're looking north of the Arctic Circle.  There IS no "overnight", the sun is up 24/7.
You are correct.  I should have checked.  It was my error to think of their shores as sufficiently far south (they are in fact at 70-75 degrees latitude) as to experience a brief Arctic night, even in June.  Thanks!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1217 on: June 17, 2019, 02:26:13 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,388,648 km2
               
Total Area         
 8,388,648    km2      
-340,397    km2   <   2010's average.
-438,961    k   <   2018
-1,017,309    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -122    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -25    k   loss
Central Seas__   -82    k   loss
Other Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -17    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -8    k   loss
East Siberian__   -13    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -30    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -19    k   loss
Laptev_______   -6    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -15    k   loss

Area loss 122 k, 6 K more than the 2010's average loss of 116 k on this day.
Total area 2nd lowest (again) (45 k less than 2016, and 274 k greater than 2012).
2012 is definitely the front runner as regards area now.

Other Stuff
GFS showing more logical temperature anomalies at +1.3 to +2.3 degrees celsius. The images suggest high +ve anomalies at various times along most of  the coastal fringes of the entire coastal fringe of the Arctic Ocean, except for contrasting and strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and sea by and in the Beaufort and the Kara Seas.

We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until mid or late July.
_______________________________________________________________
Interesting times over the next few days? I still think that for myself from now on I will only call Arctic Ice lowest when JAXA extent and NSIDC extent and NSIDC area all show it.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1218 on: June 17, 2019, 03:40:54 PM »
Area loss 122 k, 6 K more than the 2010's average loss of 116 k on this day.

And given that extent has only lost 18K, compactness has gone down yet again by more than 1%. It's a shame about that small wobble, but the drop still looks stunning. I wonder if 2019 will be able to keep up with 2007.

Given this compactness graph (and the one posted by Wip, check out JAXA),the SMOS chart and the current weather forecast, things are slowly starting to look quite serious on the melting momentum front...
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1219 on: June 17, 2019, 03:54:10 PM »
Any migration of ice into the Beaufort, Barents, Nares or Greenland sea will only reduce compactness further and set the stage for aggressive melt later.

Iain

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1220 on: June 17, 2019, 05:31:41 PM »
Dispersal showing up as a left swerve on Chartic.
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bbr2314

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1221 on: June 17, 2019, 05:31:52 PM »
Any migration of ice into the Beaufort, Barents, Nares or Greenland sea will only reduce compactness further and set the stage for aggressive melt later.
I think this is a worst-case scenario on all these different fronts. Sufficient for BOE? Highly unlikely. But Tealight's area projection shows an average projected area minimum of 3M KM^2 and a "low" scenario of 2MKM^2 and I could easily see either happening or something between the two, which would still beat any year's minimum in the satellite record.

The combination of movement and continental / oceanic heat is torching the ice near Eurasia and drifting the ice that should be resilient into oblivion via the ATL front or the Nares, and now the Beaufort as well. It's very bad! But probably not sub-2M KM^2 bad (which is still, a THIRD lower than the previous record).

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1222 on: June 17, 2019, 05:50:53 PM »
Apples & Pears?


I think this is a worst-case scenario on all these different fronts. Sufficient for BOE? Highly unlikely. But Tealight's area projection shows an average projected area minimum of 3M KM^2 and a "low" scenario of 2MKM^2 and I could easily see either happening or something between the two, which would still beat any year's minimum in the satellite record.

....very bad...... But probably not sub-2M KM^2 bad (which is still, a THIRD lower than the previous record).
NSIDC Area (5 day average) minimum in 2012 was just over 2 million km2.
NSIDC Extent (5 day average) minimum in 2012 was just under 3.4 million km2.

So is Tealight projecting around 3 million km2 AREA, i.e. 2nd lowest but well above 2012,
or is Tealight projecting around 3 million km2 EXTENT, i.e.  lowest and well below 2012.

I think we need to know
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1223 on: June 18, 2019, 05:44:26 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
June 17th, 2019:
     10,105,376 km2, a drop of -43,531 km2.
     2019 is 5th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1224 on: June 18, 2019, 07:01:19 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  10,105,376 km2(June 17, 2019)

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 44 k, 16 k less than the average loss on this day of 60 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 4.166 k, 115 k (2.8 %) greater than the average of 4,051 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 41.0% of the melting season done, with 88 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.28 million km2, 6th lowest in the satellite record, and 1.10 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.40 million km2, 6th lowest, and 1.22 million km2 above 2012.

Other Stuff

GFS showing more logical temperature anomalies at +0.9 to +2.2 degrees celsius. The images suggest high +ve anomalies at various times along most of  the coastal fringes of the entire coastal fringe of the Arctic Ocean, except for contrasting and strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and sea by and in the Beaufort and the Kara Seas.

Another day to add to the series of daily extent losses that have been below average for the last 2 weeks. Melt is now only marginally above average. Average remaining melt data still points towards minimum well above 2012 and 2nd to 5th lowest. 2/5ths of the average melt in the season is now completed.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1225 on: June 18, 2019, 02:21:04 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,286,213 km2
               
Total Area         
 8,286,213    km2      
-336,884    km2   <   2010's average.
-467,883    k   <   2018
-1,007,195    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -102    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -27    k   loss
Central Seas__   -55    k   loss
Other Seas___   -20    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -15    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________   -14    k   loss
East Siberian__   -9    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -25    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -20    k   loss

Area loss 102 k, 18 K LESS than the 2010's average loss of 120 k on this day.
Total area 2nd lowest (again) (60 k less than 2016, and 280 k greater than 2012).
2012 is definitely the front runner as regards area now.

Other Stuff
GFS showing more logical temperature anomalies at +0.9 to +2.2 degrees celsius. The images suggest high +ve anomalies at various times along most of  the coastal fringes of the entire coastal fringe of the Arctic Ocean, except for contrasting and strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and sea by and in the Beaufort and the Kara Seas.

We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until mid or late July.
After 2 days with daily area losses in the stratosphere, losses have quickly retreated to below average.

(Daily extent losses have also been at or a bit below average - an average of 50k per day this month to date.)
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weatherdude88

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1226 on: June 18, 2019, 03:55:59 PM »
NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 7th lowest value for 6.17, with a value of 10.696 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018.

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1227 on: June 18, 2019, 04:24:19 PM »
NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 7th lowest value for 6.17, with a value of 10.696 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018.

do you just repeat numbers that we can see ourselves or do you want to tell us something with it ?

extent is not a good measurement at this time of the year IMO, area often drops like a stone while extent is dropping less or growing or vice versa. compaction at times is higher and at times is lower, so what.

if it's raining today or this week one would not suggest a trend towards rainforests. disconnected data depending on the time of the year only produce false impressions, a strategy  that is often used by liars, cheaters, scamsters & deniers.

a long winter in nova scotia made my friend who lives there say: can't see much of any warming, while it's called "global warming", neither canadian nor nova scotian warming LOL

then look at the gain in okhotsk below, it did not happen, no freezing temps around there and wam waters already.

if you want to tell us something, then say it so we can check and/or oppose false assumptions. if you only want to make disconnected buzz-word-statements or stating the obvious, i sooner or later have to see to avoid seeing it ;)


weatherdude88

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1228 on: June 18, 2019, 04:44:28 PM »
NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 7th lowest value for 6.17, with a value of 10.696 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018.

do you just repeat numbers that we can see ourselves or do you want to tell us something with it ?

extent is not a good measurement at this time of the year IMO, area often drops like a stone while extent is dropping less or growing or vice versa. compaction at times is higher and at times is lower, so what.

if it's raining today or this week one would not suggest a trend towards rainforests. disconnected data depending on the time of the year only produce false impressions, a strategy  that is often used by liars, cheaters, scamsters & deniers.

a long winter in nova scotia made my friend who lives there say: can't see much of any warming, while it's called "global warming", neither canadian nor nova scotian warming LOL

then look at the gain in okhotsk below, it did not happen, no freezing temps around there and wam waters already.

if you want to tell us something, then say it so we can check and/or oppose false assumptions. if you only want to make disconnected buzz-word-statements or stating the obvious, i sooner or later have to see to avoid seeing it ;)

This is a thread for sea ice area and extent data. Should no one post any extent or area data in this thread? You do not seem to have an issue with other data that is posted here.

One could argue NSIDC sea ice extent could be the most important data set we have, due to the historical record to compare apples to apples, and the possibility of area flashing back due to sensors counting melt ponds as open water.

This is the whole purpose of this thread. Perhaps you prefer to see certain data sets, at certain times of the year, based on your subjective point of view?

This is not the time or place for that.

« Last Edit: June 18, 2019, 04:54:18 PM by weatherdude88 »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1229 on: June 18, 2019, 04:58:42 PM »
NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 7th lowest value for 6.17, with a value of 10.696 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018.

do you just repeat numbers that we can see ourselves or do you want to tell us something with it ? if you want to tell us something, then say it so we can check and/or oppose false assumptions. if you only want to make disconnected buzz-word-statements or stating the obvious, i sooner or later have to see to avoid seeing it ;)

So there is Rich saying this thread is only for book-keeping,
and
there is magnamentis saying as we can see it ourselves why post the numbers.

Some days I get a bit hacked off.

But there are a lot of people on this forum who don't have access to the numbers. So, to quote Dorothy Parker:-

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Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1230 on: June 18, 2019, 06:11:26 PM »
I like this thread very much and it is the first thread I open when I come home from work.
Bookkeeping is a good thing, data and statistics are necessary and welcome.
And, of course, if extent increases unexpectedly for several days a new ice age is not just around the corner!

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1231 on: June 18, 2019, 06:17:42 PM »
Area will slow the next few days and probably free fall next week a bit
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1232 on: June 18, 2019, 07:36:10 PM »

But there are a lot of people on this forum who don't have access to the numbers.

Please, keep posting them!
This is the first thread I always open when I reach ASIF.

Thanks to all that make this thread so informative!

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1233 on: June 18, 2019, 08:41:30 PM »
NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 7th lowest value for 6.17, with a value of 10.696 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018.
Dude, I am partly with you on this. Extent data is what it ts. And if a big cool down came, we would be left with the extent, the area flashing back. Bye bye momentum, welcome rebound year!
15 days ago, the end of those open skies that were not bringing wetness (blame the “invisible cracks” ) And then bang, one week late but more melt ponds than in 2012 at some point. Well it could be halted but I doubt it.

Brigantine

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1234 on: June 18, 2019, 10:03:43 PM »
Please, keep posting them!
This is the first thread I always open when I reach ASIF.

Thanks to all that make this thread so informative!
+1. This is the first place I come to as well.

Rich

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1235 on: June 18, 2019, 11:31:22 PM »

So there is Rich saying this thread is only for book-keeping,
and
there is magnamentis saying as we can see it ourselves why post the numbers.

Some days I get a bit hacked off.

Let's be clear. I have said that I am grateful for the bookkeeping and value it.

Thank you for providing the numbers.

There is a very valid criticism of the data (extent) not being a good indicator of the story of what is unfolding in the Arctic right now. Area measures also have weaknesses. That's not a criticism of you.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1236 on: June 18, 2019, 11:44:02 PM »
With only a 14K drop for area, the ultra-steep drop in compactness has ended:
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1237 on: June 19, 2019, 12:01:15 AM »
Please, keep posting them!
This is the first thread I always open when I reach ASIF.

Thanks to all that make this thread so informative!
+1. This is the first place I come to as well.
+ another 1.  I much appreciate all the numbers and graphs in one place... without quantitative data we are nowhere.  I also appreciate Gerontocrat's succinct daily summary of the changes and how they fit with the overall picture from previous years.  That context helps keep me on track and prevents me being overreactive about the most recent changes to the ice.

As to what extent and area 'mean' at any given point during the year, that is a good deal of intellectual fun to try to interpret, from my viewpoint.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2019, 12:35:58 AM by Pagophilus »

RealityCheck

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1238 on: June 19, 2019, 12:25:47 AM »

Some days I get a bit hacked off.


For what it's worth, G, this morning as I sat with my 16 year old son, waiting for his dental check, I was showing him your data and charts posted here, and letting them do the educating for me. Thought you'd like to know. Your ripples of impact are spreading far and wide...
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1239 on: June 19, 2019, 12:41:12 AM »
Your ripples of impact are spreading far and wide...
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1240 on: June 19, 2019, 01:13:38 AM »
With only a 14K drop for area, the ultra-steep drop in compactness has ended:

I wonder if a true way of knowing what compactness may mean for the future is look at it on a average basis. So this years line may of been quite high before this steep drop yet before that, compactness was quite low so essentially it remain near the bottom of the pack which seems to suggest this years ice is more vulnable than some other years.

Take 2018 for example in terms of how volitile it can be, in July it went from highest on record and 20 days later it reached the lowest on record albeit only briefly before flattening and being amongst nearer to the top but in general compactness was high last year hence the general feeling was 2018 was not going to break any records and the main story was the extreme atlantification. It certainly a different melt season this year so far that is for sure.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1241 on: June 19, 2019, 05:43:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
June 18th, 2019:
     10,036,880 km2, a drop of -68,496 km2.
     2019 is now 6th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1242 on: June 19, 2019, 08:16:38 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  10,036,880 km2(June 18, 2019)

- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 68 k, 10 k MORE than the average loss on this day of 58 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 4,234 k, 126 k (3.1 %) greater than the average of 4,108 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 41.6% of the melting season done, with 87 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.26 million km2, 5th lowest in the satellite record, and 1.08 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.38 million km2, 6th lowest, and 1.20 million km2 above 2012.

Other Stuff

GFS showing more logical temperature anomalies at +1.4 to +2.2 degrees celsius. The images suggest high +ve anomalies at various times along most of  the coastal fringes of the entire coastal fringe of the Arctic Ocean, except for contrasting and sometimes strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and sea by and in the Beaufort/CAA and the Kara Seas.

A day of  above average extent loss in contrast to the series of daily extent losses that have been below average for the last 2 weeks. Melt remains only marginally above average. Average remaining melt data still points towards minimum well above 2012 and 2nd to 5th lowest. 2/5ths of the average melt in the season is now completed.
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bluice

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1243 on: June 19, 2019, 09:07:50 AM »
edit:

---moved to meaningless chatter thread---

Thanks for the regular updates btw, this thread is a great source of information.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2019, 02:58:32 PM by bluice »
In PIOMAS we trust

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1244 on: June 19, 2019, 09:19:25 AM »
  .. 'average remain melt data still points toward a minimum well above 2012' .. this of course is true of 2012 as well .
.. the perils of projection .. :) .. b.c.

   I continue to appreciate your dedication to providing our daily dose of facts and figures , Gerontoocrat and Juan !  .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1245 on: June 19, 2019, 02:16:28 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,202,234  km2
               
Total Area         
 8,202,234    km2      
-311,957    km2   <   2010's average.
-460,946    k   <   2018
-975,008    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -84    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -21    k   loss
Central Seas__   -42    k   loss
Other Seas___   -21    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________   -9    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -24    k   loss
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -21    k   loss

Area loss 84 k, 22 K LESS than the 2010's average loss of 106 k on this day.
Total area 2nd lowest (again) (46 k less than 2016, and 281 k greater than 2012).
2012 is definitely the front runner as regards area now.

Other Stuff
GFS showing more logical temperature anomalies at +1.4 to +2.2 degrees celsius. The images suggest high +ve anomalies at various times along most of  the coastal fringes of the entire coastal fringe of the Arctic Ocean, except for contrasting and sometimes strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and sea by and in the Beaufort/CAA and the Kara Seas.

We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until mid or late July.
After 2 days with daily area losses in the stratosphere, losses have quickly retreated to well below average in the last two days.

Daily extent losses have also been at or a bit below average - an average of 50k per day this month to date, but today a loss of 139k)

Meanwhile, volume in the first half of June dropped like a stone (see the PIOMAS thread)

Mixed messages from all over the place.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1246 on: June 20, 2019, 06:17:05 AM »
ADS JAXA is 45 minutes late (data until June 18th.)
I appreciate if some else makes the post.
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1247 on: June 20, 2019, 08:35:52 AM »
Up to now there is no actual data. Anyway, "Monitor View" shows the ice thickness and distribution on June 19, which - eyeballing - should result in a moderate decrease of sea ice extent for that day. Maybe they come up with numerical data, together with June 20, tomorrow.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1248 on: June 20, 2019, 10:03:57 AM »
UH AMSR2 (smaller grid) gives a figure of -60k for extent, -93k for area.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1249 on: June 20, 2019, 02:22:16 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,136,524  km2
               
Total Area         
 8,136,524    km2      
-273,462    km2   <   2010's average.
-419,855    k   <   2018
-938,256    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -66    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -21    k   loss
Central Seas__   -19    k   loss
Other Seas___   -25    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    9    k   gain
CAA_________   -4    k   loss
East Siberian__    8    k   gain
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -15    k   loss
Laptev_______   -28    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -25    k   loss

Area loss 66 k, 43 K LESS than the 2010's average loss of 109 k on this day.
Total area 2nd lowest (again) (16 k less than 2016, and 263 k greater than 2012).
2012 is still the front runner as regards area now.

Other Stuff
GFS showing  temperature anomalies at +1.2 to +2.0 degrees celsius. The images suggest high +ve anomalies in central and eastern Siberia, with contrasting and sometimes strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and coastal sea by and in the Beaufort/CAA and Western Siberia, and in contrast again mostly +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean. A complicated picture.

We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until mid or late July.
After 2 days with daily area losses in the stratosphere, area losses have quickly retreated to well below average in the last three days.

Meanwhile, volume in the first half of June dropped like a stone (see the PIOMAS thread).
Quite a lot of hyperbole on the melting season thread on expected sea ice collapse not yet showing in the data NSIDC and AMSR2 data.

Mixed messages from all over the place. Ho hum.
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