JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 9,912,407 km2(June 20, 2019)
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 60 k, 11 k less than the average loss on this day of 71 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 4,234 k, 116 k (2.7 %) greater than the average of 4,242 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 42.9% of the melting season done, with 85 days to average date of minimum (13 September).
The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.27 million km2, 6th lowest in the satellite record, and 1.09 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.38 million km2, 6th lowest, and 1.20 million km2 above 2012.
Other Stuff
GFS showing temperature anomalies at +1.0 to +2.0 degrees celsius. The images suggest high +ve anomalies in central and eastern Siberia, with contrasting and sometimes strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and coastal sea by and in the Beaufort/CAA and Western Siberia, and in contrast again mostly +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean. A complicated picture.
We are now entering the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July.
Over the last 2 weeks and more extent loss has been below or well below average.
Meanwhile, volume in the first half of June dropped like a stone (see the PIOMAS thread).
Quite a lot of hyperbole on the melting season thread on expected sea ice collapse not yet showing in the NSIDC and AMSR2 data as well.
The postings on the melting thread certainly do show that this year the ice is extremely mobile.
There is an El Nino (though not very strong) that looks like persisting at least until the Autumn.
Mixed messages.
But I am sticking with my guess of a 4 million km2 minimum, just in 2nd place. But when looking at the data I just do not hear the Beach Boys playing "Wipeout".