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Author Topic: 2019 sea ice area and extent data  (Read 678178 times)

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1350 on: June 27, 2019, 09:15:57 PM »
gain in okhotsk +2, not bad, have to reconsider laws of physics as i know them [sarc]

Pagophilus

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1351 on: June 27, 2019, 09:51:51 PM »
Average area loss over the last half of June is over 100k per day. That would get us to zero in September if we kept that pace. I'm guessing we'll slow down.

It's an impressive loss of area, but apparently not unusual for late June, since the slope on the area graph looks comparable to other years at this point.  We'll see what happens...

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1352 on: June 28, 2019, 05:43:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
June 27th, 2019:
     9,324,598 km2, a century drop of -116,896 km2.
     2019 is now 4th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1353 on: June 28, 2019, 08:59:25 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  9,324,598 km2(June 27, 2019)

First century break since April 28th.

- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 117 k, 34 k MORE!! than the average loss on this day of 83 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 4,947 k, 176 k (3.7%) greater than the average of 4,770 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 48.3% of the melting season done, with 79 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.21 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 1.03 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.28 million km2, 6th lowest, and 1.10 million km2 above 2012.

Other Stuff

A messy picture, GFS showing  temperature anomalies in a narrow range of +0.8 to +1.4 degrees celsius disguising movement of highs and lows over the land around the Arctic,  in contrast again with mostly +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA and Baffin Bay is mostly warm, with periods of warmth and cold in Western Canada and Alaska. High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia with periods of warmth and cold in Eastern and Western Siberia.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

We are now entering the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Extent loss on this day back below average. Damn.
_____________________________________________________________________
The volume data for June should be available by late next week. It will be interesting to see what has happened to volume and from that, perhaps more importantly, thickness during this month.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 02:32:21 PM by gerontocrat »
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pikaia

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1354 on: June 28, 2019, 10:27:55 AM »

- Extent loss on this day 117 k, 34 k less than the average loss on this day of 83 k.


More!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1355 on: June 28, 2019, 10:32:49 AM »
- Extent loss on this day 117 k, 34 k less than the average loss on this day of 83 k.
More!
Well spotted.
Posting while still asleep. So unusual recently to post the word "more", not "less".
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Alison

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1356 on: June 28, 2019, 12:33:34 PM »
 :)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1357 on: June 28, 2019, 02:06:59 PM »
NSIDC daily data Jun 27
Column E is daily change, column F is 5-day average

Three century breaks in a row and five of the last 10

Phil.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1358 on: June 28, 2019, 02:16:42 PM »
- Extent loss on this day 117 k, 34 k less than the average loss on this day of 83 k.
More!
Well spotted.
Posting while still asleep. So unusual recently to post the word "more", not "less".

Not wishing to pile on but "Extent loss on this day back below average", shouldn't that be 'above average'?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1359 on: June 28, 2019, 02:31:06 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,327,002  km2
                        
Total Area         
 7,327,002    km2      
-323,625    km2   <   2010's average.
-262,423    k   <   2018
-959,689    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -141    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -19    k   loss
Central Seas__   -87    k   loss
Other Seas___   -35    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -9    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -22    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -21    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -19    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -35    k   loss

Area loss 141 k, 42 K MORE than the 2010's average loss of 99 k on this day.

Total area 3rd lowest[/b], (30k LESS than 2016, and 165k greater than 2012 (and > 2010!).
2012 is the front runner as regards area.

Other Stuff
A messy picture, GFS showing  temperature anomalies in a narrow range of +0.8 to +1.4 degrees celsius disguising movement of highs and lows over the land around the Arctic,  in contrast again with mostly +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA and Baffin Bay is mostly warm, with periods of warmth and cold in Western Canada and Alaska. High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia with periods of warmth and cold in Eastern and Western Siberia.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

A cliff ?
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last five days after retreating to well below average during the few days before. 141k is the largest loss for about 2 weeks.

Some might say area loss has started to fall over the cliff, especially given today's high daily NSIDC and JAXA extent losses. Being a five day trailing average, these high area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum. Also of note is the general spread of these losses, apart from the Barents, Laptev and CAA area losses, which were minor.

If this rate of loss is continued, in about a week 2019 could/would/should/will (delete as applicable) be in pole position again.
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1360 on: June 28, 2019, 02:42:14 PM »
NSIDC Arctic DAILY EXTENT graph attached, showing recent plunge downwards.

Also Hudson Bay area playing catch up - there has been a lot of warmth (and sunshine) in that area recently.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Rich

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1361 on: June 28, 2019, 03:06:57 PM »
From June 10-27th, the average area loss is running at ~ 110k per day.

If the 5 day average bumped up to 140k, I'm guessing the most recent day is well over 200k and perhaps as high as 250k.

These are boom times for area loss.

Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1362 on: June 28, 2019, 04:09:02 PM »
If the 5 day average bumped up to 140k, I'm guessing the most recent day is well over 200k and perhaps as high as 250k.

It's 201K, according to my spreadsheet.
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Rich

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1363 on: June 28, 2019, 04:20:58 PM »
If the 5 day average bumped up to 140k, I'm guessing the most recent day is well over 200k and perhaps as high as 250k.

It's 201K, according to my spreadsheet.

Thank you !

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1364 on: June 28, 2019, 04:23:36 PM »
From June 10-27th, the average area loss is running at ~ 110k per day.

If the 5 day average bumped up to 140k, I'm guessing the most recent day is well over 200k and perhaps as high as 250k.

These are boom times for area loss.
It’s being a long area cliff or two cliffs with a short hiatus. The first clear cut June cliff in any case since 2012.
And these things cannot be diagnosed looking at 5-day trailing averages, they blur the picture, IMHO.


gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1365 on: June 28, 2019, 04:50:21 PM »
It’s being a long area cliff or two cliffs with a short hiatus. The first clear cut June cliff in any case since 2012.
And these things cannot be diagnosed looking at 5-day trailing averages, they blur the picture, IMHO.
The JAXA (2 day) daily extent graph posted clearly shows that overall loss so far in June is less than the 2010's average. On June 1, 2019 extent 420k less than 2010's average, on June 27, 2019 extent 122k less than 2010's average.

the NSIDC one day Daily Extent graph also posted shows the same, but not by as much. On 1st June 2019 was 2nd lowest, on 27 June 3rd. Two periods of high loss more than matched by periods of below average loss.

It may well be that 2019 is about to fall off a cliff to lowest. It has not happened yet.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1366 on: June 28, 2019, 05:06:06 PM »
It’s being a long area cliff or two cliffs with a short hiatus. The first clear cut June cliff in any case since 2012.
And these things cannot be diagnosed looking at 5-day trailing averages, they blur the picture, IMHO.
The JAXA (2 day) daily extent graph posted clearly shows that overall loss so far in June is less than the 2010's average. On June 1, 2019 extent 420k less than 2010's average, on June 27, 2019 extent 122k less than 2010's average.

the NSIDC one day Daily Extent graph also posted shows the same, but not by as much. On 1st June 2019 was 2nd lowest, on 27 June 3rd. Two periods of high loss more than matched by periods of below average loss.

It may well be that 2019 is about to fall off a cliff to lowest. It has not happened yet.

this topic repeats every 2-3 weeks.

the less ice we start with, the less we can/have to lose to keep in touch with the lower end.

also the less ice we start the season with, the more of what's there is up north where the melting onset is kicking in quite a bit later than in the periphery.

what i'm trying to say is that it makes little sens to compare amounts of loss in within the season because the year we start from 10M we can lose max 10 and the year we start from 8M we can lose only 8M even though that would both mean BOEs, the number of ice lost in the 8M year would sound good to the uninitiated which is why i say those numbers are true but have no value at best and are misleading at worst.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 06:22:33 PM by magnamentis »

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1367 on: June 28, 2019, 05:40:57 PM »
I was not talking about extent but about NSIDC area, maybe I was not clear enough

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1368 on: June 28, 2019, 05:52:03 PM »
It’s being a long area cliff or two cliffs with a short hiatus. The first clear cut June cliff in any case since 2012.
And these things cannot be diagnosed looking at 5-day trailing averages, they blur the picture, IMHO.
The JAXA (2 day) daily extent graph posted clearly shows that overall loss so far in June is less than the 2010's average. On June 1, 2019 extent 420k less than 2010's average, on June 27, 2019 extent 122k less than 2010's average.

the NSIDC one day Daily Extent graph also posted shows the same, but not by as much. On 1st June 2019 was 2nd lowest, on 27 June 3rd. Two periods of high loss more than matched by periods of below average loss.

It may well be that 2019 is about to fall off a cliff to lowest. It has not happened yet.
I'll be more clear:. When I started lurking in '13, people talked about the Cliff meaning a fast cliff in Cryosphere Today area anomaly in June the bad years (07, 2010, 2011, 2012). Who invented this, Neven or somebody in Nevens blog.
There was never a Extent Cliff, or a AMSR area Cliff. It was a CT area anomaly cliff. And it signaled extensive melt in June like 2019.
The CT area stopped but the NSIDC area is about the same. The same pond sensitive shit we love because of that.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1369 on: June 29, 2019, 05:45:24 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
June 28th, 2019:
     9,190,076 km2, a century drop of -134,522 km2.
     2019 is 4th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1370 on: June 29, 2019, 08:18:57 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  9,190,076 km2(June 28, 2019)

First double century break since March 29-30.

- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 135 k, 36 k more than the average loss on this day of 99 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 5,081 k, 212 k (4.4%) greater than the average of 4,869 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 49.3% of the melting season done, with 77 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.18 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 1.00 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.25 million km2, also 4th lowest, and 1.07 million km2 above 2012.

Other Stuff

A messy picture, GFS showing  temperature anomalies in a narrow range of +0.7 to +1.5 degrees celsius disguising movement of high and low temepratures over the land around the Arctic,  in contrast again with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, with periods of warmth and cold in Western Canada and Alaska. High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS;

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS shows persistent strong southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait. This outlook also shows persistent strong winds from the Kara across the Arctic into the North Atlantic, that may persist or even strnegthen in the following 5 days.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

We are now entering the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Extent loss on this day again much above average.
_____________________________________________________________________
The volume data for June should be available by late next week. It will be interesting to see what has happened to volume and from that, perhaps more importantly, thickness during this month.

NSIDC area data is, for once, mirroring extent data. Interesting again will be where major losses are happening, and where they are not.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 12:09:29 PM by gerontocrat »
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be cause

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1371 on: June 29, 2019, 09:12:14 AM »
..  that translates to a fall of 165,000 sqkm yesterday .. 2019 is not holding back ! b.c.

.. that's an area the size of England , Wales and N. Ireland combined gone in a day ..

G. .. you finish with ..
  'extent loss again much below average .. Shirley Knot .. :) ?
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 10:09:49 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Jim Hunt

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1372 on: June 29, 2019, 11:36:26 AM »
Shirley Knot .. :) ?

Cut 'n' paste error?

By way of comparison, after falling 850k in 8 days the high resolution (3.125 km) AMSR2 extent fell by a mere 60k yesterday:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/#Jun-29
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1373 on: June 29, 2019, 12:20:47 PM »
..  that translates to a fall of 165,000 sqkm yesterday .. 2019 is not holding back ! b.c.

.. that's an area the size of England , Wales and N. Ireland combined gone in a day ..

G. .. you finish with ..
  'extent loss again much below average .. Shirley Knot .. :) ?
Shirley Knot - Every day I think I've got rid of her and every day there she is again.

And just for you, a reminder that one swallow does not make a summer..
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1374 on: June 29, 2019, 02:05:08 PM »
Wonderful chart and I believe the polynomial trend line accurately captures the behavior of extent after the destructive impacts on ice volume of 2007 and 2010 melt seasons. With far more FYI than prior to these melt seasons the average extent is more variable, impacted by the vagaries of the weather than previously. This, of course, means we are just a disastrous melt season away from a BOE.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 02:24:37 PM by Shared Humanity »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1375 on: June 29, 2019, 02:21:55 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 28 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,199,422  km2
                        
Total Area         
 7,199,422    km2      
-340,603    km2   <   2010's average.
-294,202    k   <   2018
-994,154    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -128    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas__   -84    k   loss
Other Seas___   -36    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -16    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -29    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______   -9    k   loss
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -35    k   loss

Area loss 128k, 10K MORE than the 2010's average loss of 118 k on this day.

Total area 3rd lowest[/b], (75k LESS than 2016, and 145k greater than 2012 (and 210k > 2010).  2010 is the front runner as regards area just for a few days before fading away. (just a reminder that things can change)

Other Stuff
A messy picture, GFS showing  temperature anomalies in a narrow range of +0.7 to +1.5 degrees celsius disguising movement of high and low temepratures over the land around the Arctic,  in contrast again with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, with periods of warmth and cold in Western Canada and Alaska. High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS;

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS shows persistent strong southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait. This outlook also shows persistent strong winds from the Kara across the Arctic into the North Atlantic, that may persist or even strengthen in the following 5 days.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last six days after retreating to well below average during the few days before.

Some might (and some may not) say area loss has started to fall over the cliff, especially given today's high daily NSIDC and JAXA extent losses. Being a five day trailing average, these high area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum. Also of note is the general spread of these losses, apart from the Greenland (gain) and Barents (small los) - wind / ice movement, and the CAA area loss which was minor.

If this rate of loss is continued, in about a week or less 2019 could/would/should/will/will not (delete as applicable) be in pole position again.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1376 on: June 29, 2019, 03:48:13 PM »
NSIDC daily extent. Column E is 1-day change, column F is 5-day average.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1377 on: June 29, 2019, 04:01:20 PM »
The evaluation of sea ice area from Gerontocrat's table "relative area wise" shows the biggest losses of 40-44% in Hudson, Kara and Baffin, followed by 30% in Grønland Sea and 21% in Laptev Sea.
Smaller losses (10-14%) occurred in Chukchi, CAA and Barents Seas, whereas CAB and ESS revealed only small losses (3% and 7%) and Beaufort a slight increase (+ 3%).
Seas with only very little ice (if at all) were not analysed.
Let's see whether this pattern will remain in the next weeks.

Aluminium

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1378 on: June 29, 2019, 04:26:28 PM »
NSIDC area (5-day average) had 802k loss for 7 days. This rate of loss is enough to reach zero in 63 days (August 30).

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1379 on: June 30, 2019, 05:45:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
June 29th, 2019:
     9,094,813 km2, a drop of -95,263 km2.
     2019 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1380 on: June 30, 2019, 06:12:25 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  9,094,813 km2(June 29, 2019)

- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 95 k, 3 k more than the average loss on this day of 92 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 5,176 k, 215 k (4.3%) greater than the average of 4,961 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 50.2% of the melting season done, with 76 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.18 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 1.00 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.25 million km2, also 4th lowest, and 1.07 million km2 above 2012.

Other Stuff

A messy picture, GFS showing  temperature anomalies in a narrow range of +0.9 to +1.4 degrees celsius disguising movement of high and low temperatures over the land around the Arctic,  in contrast again with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, with periods of warmth and cold in Western Canada and Alaska. High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS;

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still show persistent strong southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait. This outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic, that may persist or even strengthen in the following 5 days.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

We are now entering the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Extent loss on this day again just above average.
_____________________________________________________________________
The volume data for June should be available by next Friday (hopefully). It will be interesting to see what has happened to volume and from that, perhaps more importantly, thickness during this month.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Rich

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1381 on: June 30, 2019, 07:42:27 AM »
NSIDC area (5-day average) had 802k loss for 7 days. This rate of loss is enough to reach zero in 63 days (August 30).

The most recent 18 days is also > 110,000 km2 per day. We lost 2M km2 of area in that stretch.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1382 on: June 30, 2019, 02:21:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,073,010  km2
                        
Total Area         
 7,073,010    km2      
-362,419    km2   <   2010's average.
-357,241    k   <   2018
-1,019,121    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -126    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss
Central Seas__   -84    k   loss
Other Seas___   -27    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -9    k   loss
CAA_________   -7    k   loss
East Siberian__   -11    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -25    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -10    k   loss
Chukchi______   -13    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -26    k   loss

Area loss 126k, 15K MORE than the 2010's average loss of 111 k on this day.

Total area 3rd lowest[/b], (119 k LESS than 2016, and 137k greater than 2012 (and 161k greater than 2010).  2010 is the front runner as regards area just for a day or two before fading away. (just a reminder that things can change)

Other Stuff
Weather
A messy picture, GFS showing  temperature anomalies in a narrow range of +0.9 to +1.4 degrees celsius disguising movement of high and low temperatures over the land around the Arctic,  in contrast again with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, with periods of warmth and cold in Western Canada and Alaska. High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS;

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still show persistent strong southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait. This outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic, that may persist or even strengthen in the following 5 days.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last week. Being a five day trailing average, these above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum.

If this rate of loss is continued, in less than a week 2019 could/would/should/will/will not (delete as applicable) be in pole position again.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Steven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1383 on: June 30, 2019, 02:31:56 PM »
NSIDC daily sea ice area is currently 3rd lowest for the date, slightly behind 2012 and 2010:


b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1384 on: June 30, 2019, 02:34:21 PM »
Wow, zero is off the scale in this chart.

This speaks volumes.  :-\

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1385 on: June 30, 2019, 03:44:18 PM »
Wow, zero is off the scale in this chart.

This speaks volumes.  :-\
Indeed.
We are getting used to AGW. The frog on the pan

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1386 on: June 30, 2019, 03:45:42 PM »
The High Arctic Seas graphs attached.

Poised for stardom? or mediocrity?

See also https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1387 on: June 30, 2019, 03:48:45 PM »
NSIDC daily sea ice area is currently 3rd lowest for the date, slightly behind 2012 and 2010:
Thanks for the graph. I was just wasting some Sunday time today in manual cut-paste columns over Google sheets, when I saw this. 
I hope you have a code or something to order the data :-)

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1388 on: June 30, 2019, 03:54:45 PM »
The High Arctic Seas graphs attached.

Poised for stardom? or mediocrity?

See also https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp
I mean, it can end in mediocrity but,
what makes you think mediocrity given the direction of almost all indicators?
Area,
Volume,
Albedo potential,
Compactness,
Pack configuration (tilted towards Atlantic)
SMOS,
Next 5-day weather,
NH temperatures in general,
EXTENT (tendency),
...


gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1389 on: June 30, 2019, 03:57:43 PM »
It's Sunday. Thought avoidance day.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1390 on: June 30, 2019, 05:53:01 PM »
NSIDC daily extent. Column E is 1-day change, column F is 5-day average.

Steven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1391 on: June 30, 2019, 08:35:03 PM »
Thanks for the graph. I was just wasting some Sunday time today in manual cut-paste columns over Google sheets, when I saw this. 
I hope you have a code or something to order the data :-)

Nowadays I'm using a script to extract the data from Wipneus' text file and to rearrange the data in a convenient spreadsheet format.  That saves a lot of tedious manual copy-pasting work, and the script can also be adapted for other situations (e.g. to analyze the regional data files on Wipneus' site).  In case it's of use, I'm attaching the spreadsheet with daily NSIDC area anomalies from 1979 to 2019.  [Edit: apparently it's not possible to upload csv files on the forum, so I had to convert it into an ordinary text file.]

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1392 on: June 30, 2019, 09:18:50 PM »
In my spreadsheets I have a sheet called "raw data", and all other analysis/charting sheets take the data from there. When Wipneus or NSIDC publish new data I copy and paste it to the raw data sheet, where I use Excel's "text to columns" function to convert it to spreadsheet format. I do it every few weeks though, if I had to do it daily I would automate it further.

Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1393 on: June 30, 2019, 09:28:02 PM »
[Edit: apparently it's not possible to upload csv files on the forum, so I had to convert it into an ordinary text file.]

I've added csv to the allowed attachments. Could you give it another try?
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Pagophilus

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1394 on: June 30, 2019, 09:46:22 PM »
The High Arctic Seas graphs attached.
Poised for stardom? or mediocrity?

Definitely star quality.  Just needs the right agent. 

Steven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1395 on: June 30, 2019, 09:56:48 PM »
I've added csv to the allowed attachments. Could you give it another try?

Thanks, that seems to work.  The first attachment below is a spreadsheet with the daily area anomalies from 1979 to 2019, and the second attachment contains the daily area values (not anomalies).  Normally I use Excel to open those files, but I think they can also be opened with Google Sheets by following the instructions here.

Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1396 on: June 30, 2019, 09:57:38 PM »
*.csv  should be safe to set to freely downloadable, after a normal check. Sure, some moron might insert harmful code into that too, but the format is so rigid that it should be cool to download it. Sorry for interrupting the flow of the thread with this general sort of a babble, but there are plenty who do not know what csv is.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1397 on: June 30, 2019, 11:17:59 PM »
I've added csv to the allowed attachments. Could you give it another try?

Thanks, that seems to work.  The first attachment below is a spreadsheet with the daily area anomalies from 1979 to 2019, and the second attachment contains the daily area values (not anomalies).  Normally I use Excel to open those files, but I think they can also be opened with Google Sheets by following the instructions here.
Thank you very much Steven

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1398 on: July 01, 2019, 05:48:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
June 30th, 2019:
     9,036,481 km2, a drop of -58,332 km2.
     2019 is now 4th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Ktb

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1399 on: July 01, 2019, 06:15:35 AM »
Semimonthly (I didn't forget you Tor) BOE evaluation

June 30 extent was 9,036,481 km^2. With on average 75 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -107,153 km^2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

Total extent loss in June 2019 was -1,732,452 km^2. And total extent loss so far this season is -5,234,640 km^2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -47,588 km^2, which is the 4th fastest rate of melt from the maximum to the end of June. (See Attachment 2). 

Looking only at the month of June, we have averaged -57,748 km^2 per day. This average daily drop places June 2019 as 9th out of 13 (2007-2019) in average daily June melt. (See Attachment 3).
« Last Edit: July 01, 2019, 11:04:27 AM by Ktb »
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