NSIDC Total Area as at 28 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,199,422 km2 Total Area 7,199,422 km2 -340,603 km2 < 2010's average. -294,202 k < 2018 -994,154 k < 2000's average. Total Area Change -128 k loss Peripheral Seas -8 k loss Central Seas__ -84 k loss Other Seas___ -36 k loss Peripheral Seas Bering _______ -0 k loss Baffin Bay____ -10 k loss Greenland____ 5 k gain Barents ______ -3 k loss CAB Seas Beaufort_____ -7 k loss CAA_________ -1 k loss East Siberian__ -16 k loss Central Arctic_ -29 k loss Kara_________ -11 k loss Laptev_______ -9 k loss Chukchi______ -11 k loss Other Seas Okhotsk______ -0 k loss St Lawrence___ -0 k loss Hudson Bay___ -35 k loss
|
Area loss 128k,
10K MORE than the 2010's average loss of 118 k on this day.
Total area 3rd lowest[/b], (75k LESS than 2016, and 145k greater than 2012 (and 210k > 2010).
2010 is the front runner as regards area just for a few days before fading away. (just a reminder that things can change)
Other StuffA messy picture, GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow range of +0.7 to +1.5 degrees celsius disguising movement of high and low temepratures over the land around the Arctic, in contrast again with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.
The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, with periods of warmth and cold in Western Canada and Alaska. High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS;
The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS shows persistent strong southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait. This outlook also shows persistent strong winds from the Kara across the Arctic into the North Atlantic, that may persist or even strengthen in the following 5 days.
A complicated picture inadequately described above.
A cliff or not a cliffWe are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last six days after retreating to well below average during the few days before.
Some might (and some may not) say area loss has started to fall over the cliff, especially given today's high daily NSIDC and JAXA extent losses. Being a five day trailing average, these high area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum. Also of note is the general spread of these losses, apart from the Greenland (gain) and Barents (small los) - wind / ice movement, and the CAA area loss which was minor.
If this rate of loss is continued, in about a week or less 2019 could/would/should/will/will not (delete as applicable) be in pole position again.
________________________________________________________________________