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Ktb

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1400 on: July 01, 2019, 06:23:52 AM »
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from July 1 to their respective minimums (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From July 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement is the 7th highest value, of which 2010 is the leader (which makes sense for the record low at this time of year, and the length of its' melt season), while 2018 - solid 2nd place - continues to hold on in this aspect because of how insanely long its' melt season was. Keep in mind that 2018's minimum was reached on September 21st, and that 2010's minimum was reached on September 17th. (See attachment 2). End

Quote
As an aside, for a BOE to occur at this point, we would need to have the strongest June melt for the years 2007-2018 (and likely ever since the satellite record began), an above average July melt, the strongest August melt, and the strongest September 1st to minimum.

All I can do is parrot the ASIF gods by saying that conditions have favored melting. We shall see what July and August hold in store.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2019, 11:04:47 AM by Ktb »
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charles_oil

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1401 on: July 01, 2019, 06:48:06 AM »
KTB - I may have missed earlier messages - is your BOE  1m km2 or 0 km2 ? 


Why isn't 27 / 28th June showing as True where daily loss is albeit briefly > loss rate required for BOE ?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1402 on: July 01, 2019, 10:12:48 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  9,036,481 km2(June 30, 2019)

- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 58 k, 25 k less than the average loss on this day of 83 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 5,235 k, 191 k (3.8%) greater than the average of 5,044 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 51.0% of the melting season done, with 75 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.20 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 1.02 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.27 million km2, also 4th lowest, and 1.09 million km2 above 2012.

June 30th ends the month on a mediocre note

Other Stuff
Weather
A messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow range of +0.8 to +1.4 degrees celsius disguising movement of high and low temperatures over the land around the Arctic,  in contrast again with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, with periods of warmth and cold in Western Canada and Alaska. High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS;

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still show persistent strong southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait. This outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

We are now entering the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Extent loss on this day again just above average.
_____________________________________________________________________
The volume data for June should be available by this Friday (hopefully). It will be interesting to see what has happened to volume and from that, perhaps more importantly, thickness during this month.
[/quote]
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Ktb

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1403 on: July 01, 2019, 11:03:57 AM »
KTB - I may have missed earlier messages - is your BOE  1m km2 or 0 km2 ? 


Why isn't 27 / 28th June showing as True where daily loss is albeit briefly > loss rate required for BOE ?

BOE is the "industry standard" i.e. 1M km^2.

Individual days that are greater than the minimum daily melt required at the START of the month are green, even if that day is not above the New Daily Requirement column.

For it to show TRUE, the cumulative melt until that point would have to be equal to, or greater than, the cumulative minimum requirement for a BOE. So by late June, to get TRUE results, we would have required melt of over 1M km^2 to catch back up.

Bad design on my part that we can be FALSE (not on pace) on May 31st, but be TRUE (on pace) on June 1st. This is because I have multiple spreadsheets, and really should only post the full melt season spreadsheet, while keeping the individual month spreadsheets to myself.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1404 on: July 01, 2019, 04:56:51 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 June 2019 (5 day trailing average)6,952,034  km2
                        
Total Area         
 6,952,034    km2      
-390,003    km2   <   2010's average.
-421,409    k   <   2018
-1,036,130    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -121    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -9    k   loss
Central Seas__   -96    k   loss
Other Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -14    k   loss
CAA_________   -8    k   loss
East Siberian__   -16    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -19    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Chukchi______   -21    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -15    k   loss

Area loss 121k, 16K MORE than the 2010's average loss of 105 k on this day.

Total area 3rd lowest[/b], (170 k LESS than 2016, and 122k greater than 2012 (and 93k greater than 2010).  2012 is the front runner as regards area again.

Other Stuff
Weather
A messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow range of +0.8 to +1.4 degrees celsius disguising movement of high and low temperatures over the land around the Arctic,  in contrast again with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, with periods of warmth and cold in Western Canada and Alaska. High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS;

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still show persistent strong southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait. This outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last week. Being a five day trailing average, these above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum.

If this rate of loss is continued, in less than a week 2019 could/would/should/will/will not (delete as applicable) be in pole position again.
________________________________________________________________________
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1405 on: July 01, 2019, 05:39:48 PM »
NSIDC daily extent. Column E is daily change, column F is 5-day average.

icefree

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1406 on: July 01, 2019, 06:08:44 PM »
Re: Alphabet Hotel,

I think there is a mistake in your chart for June 30th all of the other date posted has a loss for June 30th 2019,

The NSIDC figures in the post above have a -121 k loss
Your chart has a 25K gain?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1407 on: July 01, 2019, 06:23:44 PM »
As June is over, here are the NSIDC Area graphs.

Bering - finished.
Chukchi - area is very low and loss accelerating again.
Beaufort - after late but a record breaking area loss came a 3 week hiatus that looks finished, i.e. strong area loss recommencing.
CAA - area is very low and seems to be pushing through the normal 3 week hiatus. Still a way to go before a completely open channel opens the NW Passage.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1408 on: July 01, 2019, 06:29:12 PM »
Re: Alphabet Hotel,

I think there is a mistake in your chart for June 30th all of the other date posted has a loss for June 30th 2019,

The NSIDC figures in the post above have a -121 k loss
Your chart has a 25K gain?
the NSIDC figure in my post for June 30 is 5-day trailing average area change.
the figure from Alphabet is NSIDC one day daily extent change -

Both are correct. the 5 day trailing average data smooths out one day variations. I believe NSIDC would prefer to only publish the 5 day data but bowed to external pressure.
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dnem

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1409 on: July 01, 2019, 06:34:30 PM »
Is the 25K gain an end of the month accounting thing (or some other artifact) or is it an actual gain?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1410 on: July 01, 2019, 06:57:09 PM »
More Graphs.

Greenland Sea area is a function of melt and ice import from the Fram, the latter which has been quite high this year. Despite this, area is below average, having totally melted out in the south (early) and at average area in the northern half.

The Barents Sea has also received ice this year, and area loss is at a glacial rate. In the next 10 days persistent winds from Siberia may clear out most of the remaining ice.

Kara Sea area loss is close to the 2010's average.
The Laptev Sea area is at record lows, as was 2018.
In both these seas the shape of area loss has changed from a V to a U, hence the full year graphs are shown.
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1411 on: July 01, 2019, 07:37:04 PM »
Is the 25K gain an end of the month accounting thing (or some other artifact) or is it an actual gain?

It's an actual gain. Such a small change could be caused by a puff of air blowing some already widely dispersed ice around. Imagine an area that has 20% ice coverage, and some wind expanding that out so it's now 15.1% spread over a larger area. It's not worth really paying attention to a small one day change like that.

dnem

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1412 on: July 01, 2019, 07:49:43 PM »
Thanks AH; I get how dispersion works with extent.  I just thought I remembered that there are end-of-the-month artifacts with the data sometimes.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1413 on: July 01, 2019, 07:50:46 PM »
Is the 25K gain an end of the month accounting thing (or some other artifact) or is it an actual gain?
It is a normal daily reading. It could be caused by dispersion of this very mobile ice pack.
It is also why NSIDC prefer 5 day averages - if it is a one day oddity the 5 day average will disappear most of it.

The July 1 extent data is when NSIDC change the masks again to blank out spurious ice. This should cause a substantial drop. So we will likely not ever know what caused this +25k oddity.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1414 on: July 01, 2019, 08:00:20 PM »
More graphs

The ESS and Central Arctic have barely started their melting, ESS area is a bit below average amd CAB area a bit above. This gives no idea as to the current condition of the ice or future weather and therefore their minima in September.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1415 on: July 01, 2019, 08:12:28 PM »
GRAPHS Last bits and pieces..

Okhotsk - finished,
St Lawrence - will NSIDC mask out the last artefacts today (July 1), or will they survive until Aug 1?

Hudson - slightly faster melt than 2018 and very much at 2010's average. No big deal. Will be near-as-dammit finished in 3 weeks

Baffin - impressive melt this year. Will be near-as-dammit finished in 3 weeks?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1416 on: July 01, 2019, 09:40:04 PM »
Thanks a million gerontocrat for your daily tables, graphs and analyses. Your postings are really appreciated!
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1417 on: July 01, 2019, 09:41:26 PM »
Thanks a million gerontocrat for your daily tables, graphs and analyses. Your postings are really appreciated!

This thread would not exist without his/her contribution. I visit daily.

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1418 on: July 01, 2019, 10:04:29 PM »
Thanks a million gerontocrat for your daily tables, graphs and analyses. Your postings are really appreciated!

This thread would not exist without his/her contribution. I visit daily.

i remember some discourse over some specific age related handicaps hence i think the political correct her is not needed  ;) :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

bill kapra

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1419 on: July 01, 2019, 11:50:59 PM »
Just a quick thank you to Gerontocrat and the gang here. I’m a years-long lurker, teaching university courses on environment and am grateful to you all for the detailed and well-documented material.

To paraphrase the Washington Post’s masthead, science dies in darkness. You all keep shining the light and it is a great service to your peers.

wallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1420 on: July 02, 2019, 02:09:18 AM »
GRAPHS Last bits and pieces..

Okhotsk - finished,
St Lawrence - will NSIDC mask out the last artefacts today (July 1), or will they survive until Aug 1?

Hudson - slightly faster melt than 2018 and very much at 2010's average. No big deal. Will be near-as-dammit finished in 3 weeks

Baffin - impressive melt this year. Will be near-as-dammit finished in 3 weeks? 



Of these, the early melt of Baffin I think would be the most concerning. I would have thought that a warmer Baffin, aside from melting out the Nares Strait rubble faster, would impact on the possible opening of the NW passage
 
« Last Edit: July 02, 2019, 06:44:55 AM by wallen »

ArcticMelt2

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1421 on: July 02, 2019, 04:19:21 AM »
https://twitter.com/zlabe

Quote
June sea ice extent was a record low in the Beaufort-Chukchi Seas region (near Alaska).



https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Chukchi Sea average ice extent in June was the lowest of record in 41 years of daily passive microwave data from @NSIDC. That means an additional (compared to normal) area the size of Florida was open water being heated by the sun instead of ice. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49



Sea ice around Alaska remains at record low values in the @NSIDC data. Chukchi Sea #seaice extent is lowest of record, and so far in 2019 there have been 79 days with "record low" ice extent. Beaufort Sea extent now 4th lowest. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @seaice_de @ajatnuvuk



ArcticMelt2

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1422 on: July 02, 2019, 04:23:36 AM »
https://twitter.com/zlabe

Quote
Average June #Arctic sea ice extent was the 2nd lowest on record.

It was 1,230,000 km² below the 1981-2010 average. Data from @NSIDC.



Rich

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1423 on: July 02, 2019, 04:43:58 AM »
Looking at all of the interesting graphs posted by Gerontocrat highlights a point that many areas of the Arctic pretty reliably melt out almost completely each year.

Looking back at 2018 final area totals which are easy to see with the tabular presentation, the final totals looked something like this (rounded to nearest 0.1m km2).

CAB                 2.4m
Beaufort.        0.4m
CAA                 0.3m
ESS                  0.1m
Rest of Arctic 0.1m
Total.               3.3m .

Not having easy access to earlier year figures other than the graphs shown today, I'm wondering if the final distribution of most years is similar with 90+% of the final ice total residing in these 3 or 4 locations. (CAB, Beaufort, CAA, ESS).

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1424 on: July 02, 2019, 05:09:27 AM »
Not having easy access to earlier year figures other than the graphs shown today, I'm wondering if the final distribution of most years is similar with 90+% of the final ice total residing in these 3 or 4 locations. (CAB, Beaufort, CAA, ESS).
Take a look also at https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-area-regional.png?attredirects=0 for the hi-res area graphs of the last few years.
The Greenland Sea always participates in the minimum (2018 was very low, most years are at 100k-200k).
Other seas such as the Laptev and rarely the Barents can participate in the minimum in a given year. It depends on transport patterns and heat concentrations. 2012 was the only year that took both Beaufort, ESS and Laptev to essentially zero, and the CAA to <50k.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1425 on: July 02, 2019, 05:44:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
July 1st, 2019:
     8,914,220 km2, a century drop of -122,261 km2.
     2019 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1426 on: July 02, 2019, 06:45:05 AM »
It is now a very close race. The difference between five different years is smaller than average daily extent changes. So the position of 2019 in the table may vary by two, three places every day.
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Rich

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1427 on: July 02, 2019, 07:49:35 AM »
Not having easy access to earlier year figures other than the graphs shown today, I'm wondering if the final distribution of most years is similar with 90+% of the final ice total residing in these 3 or 4 locations. (CAB, Beaufort, CAA, ESS).
Take a look also at https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-area-regional.png?attredirects=0 for the hi-res area graphs of the last few years.
The Greenland Sea always participates in the minimum (2018 was very low, most years are at 100k-200k).
Other seas such as the Laptev and rarely the Barents can participate in the minimum in a given year. It depends on transport patterns and heat concentrations. 2012 was the only year that took both Beaufort, ESS and Laptev to essentially zero, and the CAA to <50k.

Thanks for the link Oren. I wish those hi-res maps didn't have so many lines on them, but they do tell a good story about range of outcomes.

If we look at yesterday's area loss, 58k of it came from last year's Final Four of CAB, CAA, ESS, Beaufort. A string of days like thst would bode poorly for the season minimum.


gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1428 on: July 02, 2019, 09:41:03 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  8,914,220 km2(July 1, 2019)

- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 122 k, 25 k more than the average loss on this day of 97 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 5,357 k, 216 k (4.2%) greater than the average of 5,141 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 52.0% of the melting season done, with 74 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.17 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 0.99 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.24 million km2, also 4th lowest, and 1.06 million km2 above 2012.

June 30th ended the month on a mediocre note which was then exactly reversed on July 1

Other Stuff
Weather
A messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow and very slightly lower temperature range of +0.7 to +1.3 degrees celsius disguising movement of high and low temperatures over the land around the Arctic,  in contrast again with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, with periods of warmth and mostly coldish in Western Canada. High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS. By Friday Alaska and the far Eastern Siberian Chukotka Autonomous Okrug warm up and stay warm.

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still show persistent strong southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait. This combined with warmth must impact the Chukchi and the ESS to the East and Beaufort to the West and threaten the edge of the CAB.

This outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic. This wind stays West (looking it from a Russian view) of the island chain stretching from the Russian shore at Ostrov Bol'shevik via Franz Josef Land and Svalbard to the NE corner of Greenland and then down the East coast of Greenland. i.e. likely to help clear out the Kara and Barents and shovel ice into the Greenland Sea to die.  I don't see it significantly pulling ice towards the North Atlantic from the CAB.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

We are now in the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Extent loss on this day again just above average.
_____________________________________________________________________
The volume data for June should be available by this Friday (hopefully). It will be interesting to see what has happened to volume and from that, perhaps more importantly, thickness during this month.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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stjuuv

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1429 on: July 02, 2019, 09:59:12 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  8,914,220 km2(July 1, 2019)
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 122 k, 25 k more than the average loss on this day of 97 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 5,357 k, 216 k (4.2%) greater than the average of 5,141 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 52.0% of the melting season done, with 74 days to average date of minimum (13 September).
It looks like the ice has now "recovered" from the bump in extent compared to other years that started in the middle of June with a string of less than average extent losses.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1430 on: July 02, 2019, 02:38:43 PM »
NSIDC daily extent. The usual first day of the month drop makes this kind of useless today.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1431 on: July 02, 2019, 02:45:26 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,837,779  km2
                        
Total Area         
 6,837,779    km2      
-395,531    km2   <   2010's average.
-445,376    k   <   2018
-1,021,843    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -114    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -78    k   loss
Other Seas___   -23    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -9    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -22    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -15    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -12    k   loss
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -23    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -19    k   loss

Area loss 114k, 21K MORE than the 2010's average loss of 93 k on this day.

Total area 3rd lowest[/b], (185 k LESS than 2016, and 120k greater than 2012 (and 33k greater than 2010).  2012 is the front runner as regards area again.

Other Stuff
Weather
A messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow and very slightly lower temperature range of +0.7 to +1.3 degrees celsius disguising movement of high and low temperatures over the land around the Arctic,  in contrast again with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, with periods of warmth and mostly coldish in Western Canada. High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS. By Friday Alaska and the far Eastern Siberian Chukotka Autonomous Okrug warm up and stay warm.

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still show persistent strong southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait. This combined with warmth must impact the Chukchi Sea and the ESS to the East and Beaufort to the West and threaten the edge of the CAB. In the last few days the Chukchi and the ESS Sea have started to lose ice very strongly and the Beaufort to recommence area loss after a long hiatus.

This outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic. This wind stays West (looking it from a Russian view) of the island chain stretching from the Russian shore at Ostrov Bol'shevik via Franz Josef Land and Svalbard to the NE corner of Greenland and then down the East coast of Greenland. i.e. likely to help clear out the Kara and Barents and shovel ice into the Greenland Sea to die.  I don't see it significantly pulling ice towards the North Atlantic from the CAB.
In the last few days the Barents Sea has started to lose ice and the Greenland Sea to gain.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last week. Being a five day trailing average, these above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum.

If this rate of loss is continued, in less than a week 2019 could/would/should/will/will not (delete as applicable) be in pole position again.
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1432 on: July 03, 2019, 05:43:52 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
July 2nd, 2019:
     8,782,986 km2, a century drop of -131,234 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1433 on: July 03, 2019, 09:26:15 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  8,782,986 km2(July 2, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 131 k, 34 k more than the average loss on this day of 97 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 5,488 k, 251 k (4.8%) greater than the average of 5,237 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 53.0% of the melting season done, with 73 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.14 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 0.96 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.19 million km2, also 4th lowest, and 1.01 million km2 above 2012.

The first 2 days in July had much above average extent loss after a mixed picture in the last days of June. Not so much a cliff, more a bumpy steep slope.
2010 has the lowest extent for this date, but quickly faded out of the picture. Another year that promised but did not deliver mega ice loss.


Other Stuff
Weather
A messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow and very slightly lower temperature range of +0.6 to +1.6 degrees celsius. with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, while Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS.
By Friday Alaska and the far Eastern Siberian Chukotka Autonomous Okrug warm up and stay warm.

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still show persistent strongish southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait, but now bending more towards the Alaskan shore. This combined with warmth must impact the Chukchi and the Beaufort to the West and maybe threaten the edge of the CAB.

This 5 day outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic. This wind stays West (looking it from a Russian view) of the island chain stretching from the Russian shore at Ostrov Bol'shevik via Franz Josef Land and Svalbard to the NE corner of Greenland and then down the East coast of Greenland. i.e. likely to help clear out the Kara and Barents and shovel ice into the Greenland Sea to die.  I don't see it significantly pulling ice towards the North Atlantic from the CAB. Indeed the high in the middle of the CAB may send ice north of Greenland from East to West towards the Lincoln Sea. Much of the central arctic also looking dry.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

We are now in the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Extent loss on this day again just above average.
_____________________________________________________________________
Tealight's AMSR2 volume and thickness data for June is bad enough to frighten the horses. The PIOMAS volume data for June should be available by this Friday (hopefully). It will be interesting to see if this backs up Tealight's analysis. If yes, what has happened to volume and from that, perhaps more importantly, thickness during June must be a factor in guesstimating the 2019 minimum.
[/quote]
« Last Edit: July 03, 2019, 09:43:35 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1434 on: July 03, 2019, 09:41:13 AM »
Gerontocrat, sir, there is an Antarctic chart in there. Your computer fooled you, i'm afraid.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1435 on: July 03, 2019, 09:46:47 AM »
Gerontocrat, sir, there is an Antarctic chart in there. Your computer fooled you, i'm afraid.
Nope, I fooled myself. I was thinking about posting on the melting season thread instead of finishing the extent post. Silly me. Why volunteer for grief?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1436 on: July 03, 2019, 09:49:17 AM »
You could have just hooked into the narrative. Always blame the computer! ;)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1437 on: July 03, 2019, 03:36:57 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,728,715  km2
                        
Total Area         
 6,728,715    km2      
-412,936    km2   <   2010's average.
-440,190    k   <   2018
-1,000,255    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -109    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -72    k   loss
Other Seas___   -23    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -14    k   loss
CAA_________    7    k   gain
East Siberian__   -22    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -12    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -25    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -20    k   loss

Area loss 109k, ZEROK MORE/LESS than the 2010's average loss of 109 k on this day.

Total area 2nd? lowest[/b], (186 k LESS than 2016, and 137k greater than 2012 (and now 23k LESS than 2010. 2010 is now another dead soldier fallen by the wayside on the retreat from Moscow). 

2012 is the front runner as regards area again.

Other Stuff
Weather
A messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow and very slightly lower temperature range of +0.6 to +1.6 degrees celsius. with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, while Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS.
By Friday Alaska and the far Eastern Siberian Chukotka Autonomous Okrug warm up and stay warm.

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still show persistent strongish southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait, but now bending more towards the Alaskan shore. This combined with warmth must impact the Chukchi and the Beaufort to the West and maybe the ESS. Today's area losses in those seas seem to confirm that trend

This 5 day outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic. This wind stays West (looking it from a Russian view) of the island chain stretching from the Russian shore at Ostrov Bol'shevik via Franz Josef Land and Svalbard to the NE corner of Greenland and then down the East coast of Greenland. i.e. likely to help clear out the Kara and Barents and shovel ice into the Greenland Sea to die.  I don't see it significantly pulling ice towards the North Atlantic from the CAB. Indeed the high in the middle of the CAB may send ice north of Greenland from East to West towards the Lincoln Sea. Much of the central arctic also looking dry.
The Kara and the Barents seas are losing ice area, the Greenland Sea gaining.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last week, and now moderated a bit. But being a five day trailing average, above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum.

If this rate of loss is continued, in about a week 2019 could/would/should/will/will not (delete as applicable) be in pole position (briefly?) again.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Random_Weather

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1438 on: July 03, 2019, 04:06:16 PM »
"2012 is the front runner as regards area again."

Its all of source you use: http://data.meereisportal.de/maps/latest/area_n_en.png Area here 6.34 Mio km^2 and for now the lowest on record

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1439 on: July 03, 2019, 04:27:07 PM »
"2012 is the front runner as regards area again."

Its all of source you use: http://data.meereisportal.de/maps/latest/area_n_en.png Area here 6.34 Mio km^2 and for now the lowest on record
I'm a good chap and don't switch horses in mid-stream.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1440 on: July 03, 2019, 07:02:36 PM »
NSIDC daily extent. Column E is daily change, column F is 5-day average.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1441 on: July 04, 2019, 05:32:31 AM »
The ADS NIPR page is sending me to Twitter...  :-\

I hope they will fix the problem soon!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Rod

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1442 on: July 04, 2019, 05:48:07 AM »
The ADS NIPR page is sending me to Twitter...  :-\

I hope they will fix the problem soon!

Trump took it over.  You will be sent to his Twitter account showing an arctic full of ice with tanks rolling over it and fireworks being fired over healthy polar bears who have American flag tattoos and proclaim “he is the best dictator ever!” 

EDIT: Sorry for the off topic post but I could not resist in light of the BS that is going to happen in the USA in a few hours.  Juan set it up too good to stay quiet. 
« Last Edit: July 04, 2019, 05:54:07 AM by Rod »

Human Habitat Index

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1443 on: July 04, 2019, 06:16:53 AM »
The ADS NIPR page is sending me to Twitter...  :-\

I hope they will fix the problem soon!

Trump took it over.  You will be sent to his Twitter account showing an arctic full of ice with tanks rolling over it and fireworks being fired over healthy polar bears who have American flag tattoos and proclaim “he is the best dictator ever!” 

EDIT: Sorry for the off topic post but I could not resist in light of the BS that is going to happen in the USA in a few hours.  Juan set it up too good to stay quiet.


 8)

Cheers - it seems only humor remains
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1444 on: July 04, 2019, 06:58:52 AM »
The ADS NIPR page is sending me to Twitter...  :-\

I hope they will fix the problem soon!

Their server is redirecting web clients to their twitter feed:

pauldry600

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1445 on: July 04, 2019, 08:24:22 AM »
Well whatever Trump thinks Cliff Days continue judging by Uni Bremen graph theres another century gone.

wdmn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1446 on: July 04, 2019, 08:38:02 AM »
The ADS NIPR page is sending me to Twitter...  :-\

I hope they will fix the problem soon!

Their server is redirecting web clients to their twitter feed:

It is no longer redirecting, but has not been updated with the July 3rd data.

pietkuip

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1447 on: July 04, 2019, 10:31:04 AM »
Cliff Days continue judging by Uni Bremen graph theres another century gone.

I had to look that up: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/

wdmn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1448 on: July 04, 2019, 02:25:20 PM »
NSIDC area appears to now be the lowest on record:

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1449 on: July 04, 2019, 02:30:50 PM »
NSIDC daily extent