NSIDC Total Area as at 3 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,602,187 km2 Total Area 6,602,187 km2 -430,037 km2 < 2010's average. -423,206 k < 2018 -1,006,288 k < 2000's average. Total Area Change -127 k loss Peripheral Seas -18 k loss Central Seas__ -90 k loss Other Seas___ -18 k loss Peripheral Seas Bering _______ -0 k loss Baffin Bay____ -8 k loss Greenland____ -4 k loss Barents ______ -6 k loss CAB Seas Beaufort_____ -19 k loss CAA_________ 8 k gain East Siberian__ -22 k loss Central Arctic_ -14 k loss Kara_________ -16 k loss Laptev_______ -1 k loss Chukchi______ -27 k loss Other Seas Okhotsk______ -2 k loss St Lawrence___ -0 k loss Hudson Bay___ -15 k loss
|
Area loss 127 k,
35 k MORE than the 2010's average loss of 92 k on this day.
Total area 2nd lowest[/b], 196 k LESS than 2016, and 117k greater than 2012
(RIP 2010. 2010 is now another dead soldier fallen by the wayside on the retreat from Moscow).
2012 is the front runner as regards area again.
Other StuffWeatherA messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow and very slightly lower temperature range of +0.6 to +1.4 degrees celsius. with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.
The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, while Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS.
By Friday Alaska and the far Eastern Siberian Chukotka Autonomous Okrug warm up and stay really warm.
The GFS
5 day wind outlook from GFS still shows southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait, but not as strong. This combined with warmth is impacting the Chukchi and the Beaufort and the ESS.
Today's area losses in those seas seem to confirm this. But the CAA stays in the hiatus and gains area for second day. After 5 days the winds are still southerly, but looking more like a light breeze?
This 5 day outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic. This wind stays West (looking it from a Russian view) of the island chain stretching from the Russian shore at Ostrov Bol'shevik via Franz Josef Land and Svalbard to the NE corner of Greenland and then down the East coast of Greenland. i.e. likely to help clear out the Kara and Barents and shovel ice into the Greenland Sea to die.
I don't see it significantly pulling ice towards the North Atlantic from the CAB. Indeed the high in the middle of the CAB may send ice north of Greenland from East to West towards the Lincoln Sea, and then heading across towards the Russian shore. Much of the central arctic also looking very dry.
The Kara and the Barents seas are losing ice area, and on this day also the Greenland Sea. Ice heading South to dieAfter 5 days it looks like the high pressure moves a bit east and south towards Russia. The main wind strength is then sending ice from the Laptev to the Kara.
A complicated picture inadequately described above. Can't do that every day
A cliff or not a cliffWe are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last week, and moderated a bit and now going up again. Being a five day trailing average, above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum.
If this rate of loss is continued, in about a week 2019 NSIDC 5 day Area could/would/should/will/will not (delete as applicable) be in pole position (briefly?) again.
________________________________________________________________________
Note: Century breaks are not a cliff at this time of year.