NSIDC Total Area as at 9 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 5,995,583 km2 Total Area 5,896,402 km2 -502,741 km2 < 2010's average. -425,800 k < 2018 -1,189,398 k < 2000's average. Total Area Change -99 k loss Peripheral Seas -20 k loss Central Seas__ -59 k loss Other Seas___ -20 k loss Peripheral Seas Bering _______ -0 k loss Baffin Bay____ -8 k loss Greenland____ -6 k loss Barents ______ -5 k loss CAB Seas Beaufort_____ 4 k gain CAA_________ -9 k loss East Siberian__ -26 k loss Central Arctic_ 3 k gain Kara_________ -10 k loss Laptev_______ -18 k loss Chukchi______ -4 k loss Other Seas Okhotsk______ -0 k loss St Lawrence___ -0 k loss Hudson Bay___ -20 k loss
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- Area loss 99 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average loss of 109 k on this day.
- Total area
Lowest, 218 k LESS than 2016, and 146 k less than 2012.
Despite area loss back to average,
2019 is strengthening its position as front runner, but for how long?
Other StuffWeatherGFS over the next 7 days showing temperature anomalies falling from +1.7 to +0.2 degrees celsius.
- over the Arctic Ocean itself temperatures a bit above average,
- the CAA & Baffin Bay mostly warm,
- Western Canada stays mostly cool.
- Alaska and Eastern Siberian really warm,
- Central Siberia and Western Siberia mostly cool.
The winds described in previous posts seem to have mostly faded away.
A cliff or not a cliff** See below
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses ticked up a lot in the last 10 days, but for the last 3 days steadily moderating.
It looks like Fram export has stalled, with most area losses in the arc from the ESS along the Russian shore and down to the Greenland Sea. The CAA is showing signs of melt. I think a posting in the Northern Sea Route thread might be interesting.
A steep downward slope, separating 2019 from 2016 and from 2012, now continuing at average daily area losses..
NSIDC 5 day Area could/would/should/will/will-not continue in pole position for about one week/two weeks/the rest of July/the entire remaining melt season (delete as applicable).
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** While NSIDC daily area loss has slipped back to average levels, daily extent loss (both NSIDC and JAXA) has been spectacularly high in the last few days. This is a reversal of a few days ago when Neven was posting the graphs showing concentration dropping into record lows, reflecting high area losses and low extent losses.
This apparent movement in waves when area and extent losses accelerate or decelerate in opposite directions seems to happen quite often. Yet another reason to be cautious with the hyperbole.