7/9/2019 JAXA extent @ 7.95M km sq.
Avg. daily melt required to maintain record extent lows:
7/12 - 7.69M km sq. -260k km sq requiring > -86.6k km sq avg/day
Well, in my previous post I stated it looked liked winds were going to give us lower extent losses over the next couple days, but I underestimated the change. '19 couldn't hold on to the lead even one more day!
After a decrease of approx. 70k on 7/11, 2019 needed a drop > than a middling 80k to remain in record territory on the 12th, despite the large 170k loss in 2011, but came in with a small loss of 50k to 7.72 vs. 2011's 7.69. 2011's loss of 170k on the 11th marked a string of large losses for 2011, the next two days coming in at -120 and -130, for a 3-day loss of 420k.
Sheesh! <-- Official scientific term equaling, "Well, that was quite a sudden change."
7/13 - 7.57M km sq. -380k km sq requiring > -95k km sq avg/day
Now 30k high of 2011, '19 would need a loss of to keep up with '11's loss of 120 on the 13th. No such bad luck. A rather middling 70k was all '19 could muster, ending up 80k higher than 2011.
7/14 - 7.44M km sq. -510k km sq requiring > -102k km sq avg/day
7/15 - 7.35M km sq. -600k km sq requiring > -100k km sq avg/day
2011 had a loss of 130k to the 14th, leaving 2011 a total of 210 to fall to regain record territory. As much as I thought a couple more -100k days could have 2019 in the lead till 2012 retakes the lead on the 25th, I'm now equally doubtful 2011 will regain the lead before then. 2011 does slow a bit coming into the intersection with 2012, so if '19 gets back into the -100k's consistently, it might happen, but 210k is a lot to make up.
Anywho... re the 14th: No way in hell 2019 overtakes 2011. I don't care if God himself comes down a breathes fire on the ice, ain't happening. There's the knee-jerk, now let me go look at some data!
[Searching...]
Well, 2016 had a 160k drop on the 14th, 2017 fell 130k, 2018 fell 160k, so there's precedent for 100+ losses. Winds are mixed according to Windy. The winds across the Siberian coast suggest extent increases while the rest of the Arctic looks neutral to good for compaction.
SST's indicate a lot of heat coming in the Pacific side, but not too hot anywhere else, so who winds? Heat or winds? GFS 2M says mid-since digits temps at the edges. Hmmm... Seems like an average-ish day? Yeah, no way we see a 220k drop for the 14th.
But... what do the forums say? HPS anomaly from 13th to 18th has a warm anomaly over the CAA and into the center of the CAB... Everywhere I look, mixed messages. High uncertainty.
The 15th slows all the way down to a mere 90k loss in 2011. I suspect that 80k difference on the 13th is going to grow on both the 14th and the 15th giving us something on the order of a 120+/-20k difference between '11 and '19 after the next two days are posted.
Longer term, there's an inflection after the 14th where the slope decreases. Average losses for '11 from the 14th to the 19th avg. 88k/day followed by another inflection on the 20th which has a loss of 50k, after which the daily average drops to 50k to the 25th.
There certainly is a fair chance '19 will retake '11, but we may be waiting a week or so... or maybe never...? Beating 2012 looks like a tough call to make at this point, I do still see '19 coming in second by the time the season is done. At worst, a very close 4th.
Cheers