As for the 15th:
7/15 - 7.35M km sq.
With '11 dropping 90k into the 15th, 2019 may well keep pace to give me a rather precise short-term prediction...
...or not. 2019 couldn't manage a measly 80k drop to stay within the prediction window, instead dropping a rounded 70k km sq to stand at 7.5M km sq.
The sea ice hates me, clearly.
I started doing this bc I often see comments on the site about the notorious inaccuracy of long-term projections from the various data sources. I have had some success at meta-analysis of ASIE, not in terms of km sq, but in terms of relative direction up and down and a rough idea of how much. In conversations with Paul Beckwith on Facebook, I correctly predicted 2013 and '14 would be higher than 2012 while he was citing Wadhams and calling for BOE. I made no prediction in 2015 bc of family issues. However, in Aug. 2015, at RealClimate, I predicted a new or near-new ASIE for 2016 or 2017 due to an analysis of the effects of El Nino's on ASI that supposedly doesn't exist, but I think does. (You have to look at 24 months post-EN, not just one summer.)
As you all know, 2016 came in 2nd. And, 2016 spent something like **seven months** hitting record lows, just not in the summer. Good enough for a prediction a year in advance given the great difficulty predicting ASI.
I didn't think either 2017 or 2018 would come close to 2012, or challenge 2016. No specific numbers, just meta stuff.
Basically, I'm curious about short-term predictions, so started this. So far, sucking pretty bad on the daily level despite some earlier success. One thing I miss that I no longer find on the ASIGraphs page is the ice speed and drift graphic. Anyone know where to find that? It's very useful for analyzing extent - at least for me.
Ah, well, onward!
7/16/11 - 7.24M km sq.
That's a drop of roughly 110k km sq from the previous day. Gerontocrat notes the cooling phase currently dominating, so let's keep this simple: Nope. 2019 will not drop 110k for the 16th and will likely end up another 20 ~ 50k km sq higher than 2011, or close to 200k higher extent than 2011. Call it 7.43.
EDIT/UPDATE: '19 dropped 10k more than I predicted, 80k, to 7.42 vs. -110k for '11, but I'll take it as error bars. Definitely didn't keep pace with 2011, as predicted. Currently +180k to 2011.
7/17/11 - 7.15M km sq
2011 drops a further 90k and I see no reason for 2019 to keep pace. Looking at what all you good people have to say, winds, temps here and there, there's little to point to strong compaction. Say, 7.35.
EDIT/UPDATE 7/16: 2019 starts from 7.42, not 7.43, so revise to 7.34. (I'd like to increase this drop, but will live or die with the original predictions. Looking at a 190k spread, if so. News around the fora indicates it may decrease, though, or stay the same.)
Edit/Update 7/17: Dropped a full 100k to 7.32. Should've increased it. 2011 leads by 170k.
7/18/11 - 7.06M km sq.
Same here... 7.26....
Edit/Update 7/17: I called 80k. Don't think it will be that low. While winds overall seem to be suggesting expansion, there's some strong stuff forecast over Siberia that could spread the ice.
Sticking w/ previous 80k call: 7.24, +180k relative to '11.
Revising for current conditions: 7.22, or 100k drop, +160k to '11.
7/19/11 - 7.00M km sq.
...and here... 7.2. Winds really look dominant in all the right areas to either expand where there's room or toward compaction where there's no room to compact.
(I think ASI Area would be much more interesting to track, and far more relevant.)