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Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1900 on: July 30, 2019, 07:57:59 AM »
Quote
7/28/2019 stands at 6.19M km sq. 2019 needs an increase of < 10k km sq. for a record low on this date.

7/29/2012 stood at 6.20M km sq. on this date , a drop of 80k.
7/29/2019 stands at 6.08M km sq., a record low for this date, after a drop of over 110k.

7/30/2012 stood at 6.13M km sq. on this date , a drop of 70k.
7/29/2019 stands at 6.08M km sq. 2019 needs an increase of < 50k km sq. for a record low on this date.

---------------

8/10/2012 stood at 4.94M km sq.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 94.67k km sq. for a record low on this post-GAC date. (12 days)

9/15/2012 stood at 3.18M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 60.03k km sq. for a record low on this date. (48 days)

bbr2314

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1901 on: July 30, 2019, 08:01:06 AM »
There is so much sh*t ice in the ESS, Beaufort, and Laptev that will drop below the 15% extent threshold by 8/10. It is actually a bit disturbing to consider that 2019 could potentially beat 2012's decrease over this period due to this fact, even WITHOUT a GAC -- in my possibly incorrect opinion.

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1902 on: July 30, 2019, 02:17:58 PM »
It is actually a bit disturbing to consider that 2019 could potentially beat 2012's decrease over this period due to this fact, even WITHOUT a GAC

I'm cautiously optimistic given 95k sustained over 12 days is a big ask. I've felt for a month or so the trend line suggested '12 crossing '19 between the 5th & 10th. Prematire call, though.

weatherdude88

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1903 on: July 30, 2019, 02:47:29 PM »
The NSIDC sea ice extent value for 7.29, is 6.318 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 87,000 square kilometers.

NSIDC sea ice extent is currently the lowest on record for the date. 2019 now has a 160,000 square kilometers lead on 2012.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2019, 03:02:25 PM by weatherdude88 »

weatherdude88

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1904 on: July 30, 2019, 03:01:20 PM »
The NSIDC sea ice area value for 7.29, is 4,324,853 square kilometers. This is a decrease of 51,042 square kilometers.

NSIDC sea ice area is currently the second lowest on record for the date. If the current rate of losses (average for the last week) continue, 2019 will fall to the third lowest NSIDC area value on 8.1 (2016 and 2012).

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1905 on: July 30, 2019, 03:33:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 July 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,353,853 km2

Whoops #8
Area loss staying at  below average. 8 days really does mean reaching the place called significant.
                        
Total Area         
 4,353,853    km2      
-353,730    km2   <   2010's average.
-431,404    km2   <   2018
-1,127,051    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -51    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -10    k   loss
Central Seas__   -36    k   loss
Other Seas___   -5    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -9    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss
CAA_________   -8    k   loss
East Siberian__   -18    k   loss
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
- Area loss 51 k, 2 k LESS than the 2010's average loss of 53 k on this day.
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 126 k LESS than 2016, and 65 k MORE than 2012.

Area loss remains slightly below average.

Outlook
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that is already sliding down a bit faster. Area losses in the last week currently trending very much downwards. It definitely was a steep downward slope that has now greatly eased to below average losses. Each day now represents just over 2 percent of remaining average time available. 8 days of slow area losses increases the absolute and percentage deviation from the average required for a result such as a record low.

But note the exceptions:
- The Chukchi & the ESS.
- The Beaufort is showing signs of ice melt greater than ice import.
- The CAA should be really warm this week - and some rain. Also increasing melt.
- No Fram export - Greenland area loss accelerating.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1906 on: July 30, 2019, 03:43:38 PM »
NSIDC Extent continues to tell a different story - still in pole position by a significant amount.

The contrast is shown by the collapse in dispersion (increase in concentration) over the last week or more.

An odd end to the melting season in development a la 2012 again?
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Rich

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1907 on: July 30, 2019, 04:08:42 PM »
After 11 days in the 2.6 - 2.7M km2 range, CAB area finally breaks through and goes back above 2.7M.

The anticipation of the July PIOMAS #'s is going to be sky high. 2D is very strong. What's going on in the 3D CAB?


Alphabet Hotel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1908 on: July 30, 2019, 05:14:21 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1909 on: July 31, 2019, 05:42:48 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 30th, 2019:
     5,997,752 km2, a drop of -78,250 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gregcharles

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1910 on: July 31, 2019, 06:04:55 AM »
2019 has now beaten every year through 1998, with 40-some melting days still to go.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1911 on: July 31, 2019, 07:42:17 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 5,997,752 km2(July 30, 2019)

On average, over 3/4 of extent loss completed.

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (43 days this year), extent is 134 k below 2012, 537 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 78 k, 10 k more than the average loss on this day of 68 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 8,273 k, 587 k (7.6%) greater than the average of 7,686 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 77.8% of the melting season done, with 45 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
**Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.80 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.62 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.22 million below the 2nd lowest  in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will initially slowly reduce, this reduction in daily loss gradually accelerating on the approach to minimum. 

Over the next 5 days Greenland, Baffin Bay and the CAA will still still be warm, and at times hot. The CAA may well get some rain.
It looks like there will be little or no export of ice down the Fram into the Greenland Sea, though on the Russian side winds may tend to push ice into the Barents,

In the last 14 days the average extent loss per day has been just over 100k. The June volume data persuaded me to drop my guesstimate for the minimum  to below 4 million km2 from exactly 4 million km2. So far this seems to have been a sensible decision. Indeed, my June guess of 3.75 to 4.25 million km2 may be at risk, i.e. too high.

There is even a possibility that my July guess of 3.5 to 4 million km2 is also too high. However, this would require remaining melt to follow the pattern of 2016 at something like 15% above average.
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DrTskoul

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1912 on: July 31, 2019, 07:47:25 AM »
Trouble sleepin Gero? Thank you for the update!!! Momentum is still strong..

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1913 on: July 31, 2019, 08:26:49 AM »
For those who like to predict the unpredictable (all of us?) ...

- here is a graph showing the projections of the 2019 JAXA extent minimum using previous years daily changes,

- who is curious about when the 365 day trailing average will reach a new low?  At current rates that is in late 2019 or early 2020.
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DrTskoul

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1914 on: July 31, 2019, 08:33:29 AM »
So anywhere between 3 - 3.75...

The second graph looks like forced ratcheting downwards ...heat forcing with negative feedback for 4-5 years ...
« Last Edit: July 31, 2019, 08:41:12 AM by DrTskoul »

Phil42

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1915 on: July 31, 2019, 09:20:26 AM »
Interesting to note that 30th July 2019 is the first ever day in July where JAXA extent falls below 6M km2. Before, the earliest date was 3rd August 2012. So this record has been beaten by an impressive amount of 4 days.

DrTskoul

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1916 on: July 31, 2019, 09:36:30 AM »
This is an interesting graph from the late Andrew Slater's webpage:



I wonder if somebody here can update it to 2019.

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1917 on: July 31, 2019, 11:33:51 AM »
For those who like to predict the unpredictable (all of us?) ...

- here is a graph showing the projections of the 2019 JAXA extent minimum using previous years daily changes

Unexpectedly, 2002 is the closest match I could find to 2019's curve. (See image.)

Quote
- who is curious about when the 365 day trailing average will reach a new low?  At current rates that is in late 2019 or early 2020.

Excuse my ignorance, but what is the function or use of a 1-year trailing average?

DrTskoul

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1918 on: July 31, 2019, 11:41:31 AM »
Quote from: Killian
Excuse my ignorance, but what is the function or use of a 1-year trailing average?

State of the cryosphere...an average obscure measure  that gives us a simple numerical picture...

Paddy

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1919 on: July 31, 2019, 12:05:47 PM »
- who is curious about when the 365 day trailing average will reach a new low?  At current rates that is in late 2019 or early 2020.

I wouldn't like to guess at the exact date, but given how low the last four months have been, I wouldn't be at all surprised by a new trailing average minimum sometime in the next 200 to 300 days. Particularly not if it happens next spring, once 2019's relatively high January to March extent is no longer part of the average.

EDIT: Although I wouldn't want to predict the date at which we first get a new lowest trailing average, I would guesstimate that we may hit the bottom of the next trough around march 31st next year.

Quote from: Killian
Excuse my ignorance, but what is the function or use of a 1-year trailing average?

State of the cryosphere...an average obscure measure  that gives us a simple numerical picture...

I'd say that it gives a more complete picture of the current trend in sea ice extent than just tracking the minimum from year to year. Especially as the minimum point reached in a given year may be more subject to random noise than the average over the course of a year.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2019, 03:24:28 PM by Paddy »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1920 on: July 31, 2019, 12:32:32 PM »
Quote from: Killian
Excuse my ignorance, but what is the function or use of a 1-year trailing average?

State of the cryosphere...an average obscure measure  that gives us a simple numerical picture...

I'd say that it gives a more complete picture of the current trend in sea ice extent than just tracking the minimum from year to year. Especially as the minimum point reached in a given year may be more subject to random noise than the average over the course of a year.
I think you can see that comparing 2016 with 2012.

2016 sea ice was low all year.
2012 was very much an extreme event at the end of the season followed by a strong recovery.

Hence the AWP anomaly for the total Arctic was much higher in 2016 than for 2012.
2019 is showing much more of a 2016 pattern than 2012.

Hence the climatic effect for the year is likely to be higher when low extent / area is maintained than a flash in the pan such as 2012?
____________________________________________________________
"Flash in the Pan" might raise some hackles

Ditto for Greenland ice sheet melt - this year it has gone on and on without a break. Greater impact?


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Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1921 on: July 31, 2019, 02:02:59 PM »
This is an interesting graph from the late Andrew Slater's webpage:


I just wondered that the E/SE part of the Hudson Bay must have been ice-free over winter/spring at least once.
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Rich

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1922 on: July 31, 2019, 02:35:54 PM »

Excuse my ignorance, but what is the function or use of a 1-year trailing average?

This is an amusing question coming from you Killian. You don't seem too concerned with function in your own posts. What's the utility of your guessing extent losses every day?

Note...your posts don't bother me at all. They're harmless and a source of amusement. But there is irony in your questioning the value of more interesting data.

Rich

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1923 on: July 31, 2019, 03:11:31 PM »
IMO, the data which would best represent what is going on in the Arctic is a 5 or 10 year rolling average.

Individual summers bring a lot of weather volatility which will swing the 365 day average around a lot.

The mob awaits the spectacle of the mythical event that suddenly transforms us from ok to calamity. But AGW isn't a lion attack. It's a constrictor. Slowly and steadily tightening it's grip and suffocating us.

Paddy

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1924 on: July 31, 2019, 03:25:54 PM »
Good point Rich with regards to individual summers.

I will now leave commenting on this thread to those with actual data to present rather than discuss further, however.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2019, 01:23:53 AM by Paddy »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1925 on: July 31, 2019, 03:27:54 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 July 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,282,355 km2

Whoops #8

The turnaround starts here?
Area loss well above average after the 8 days slump in losses.
                        
Total Area         
 4,282,355    km2      
-366,173    km2   <   2010's average.
-475,417    km2   <   2018
-1,139,131    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -71    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -11    k   loss
Central Seas__   -59    k   loss
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -9    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -10    k   loss
East Siberian__   -18    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -11    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
- Area loss 71 k, 25 k MORE than the 2010's average loss of 46 k on this day.
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 96 k LESS than 2016, and 86 k MORE than 2012.

Outlook
We are now in the period of reducing daily area loss that that will slide to zero by mid-September.
On this day area loss perked up.

Of note were:
- The Chukchi & the ESS and the Laptev
- The Beaufort is showing signs of ice melt greater than ice import.
- The CAA should be really warm all this week - and some rain. Also increasing daily melt.
- No Fram export - Greenland area loss accelerating.
- the CAB had an area loss

I will neither predict nor project the final area outcome.
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TeaPotty

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1926 on: July 31, 2019, 03:38:31 PM »
The mob awaits the spectacle of the mythical event that suddenly transforms us from ok to calamity. But AGW isn't a lion attack. It's a constrictor. Slowly and steadily tightening it's grip and suffocating us.

Can you keep your nonsense out of the data threads?

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1927 on: July 31, 2019, 03:49:33 PM »
7/30/2012 stood at 6.13M km sq. on this date , a drop of 70k.
7/29/2019 stands at 6.08M km sq., a record low for the date. 2019 needs an increase of < 50k km sq. for a record low on this date.

7/30/2019 sdrops 80k km sq to 6.00M km sq., a record low for the date.

7/31/2012 stood at 6.10M km sq. on this date , a drop of 30k.
7/30/2019 stands at 6.00M km sq. 2019 needs an increase of < 100k km sq. for a record low on this date.

-----------------------------------

8/10/2012 stood at 4.94M km sq.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 96.36k km sq. for a record low on this post-GAC date. (11 days)

9/15/2012 stood at 3.18M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 60.00k km sq. for a record low on this date. (47 days)

stjuuv

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1928 on: July 31, 2019, 03:52:38 PM »
IMO, the data which would best represent what is going on in the Arctic is a 5 or 10 year rolling average.
Indeed, it's a lot easier to stick a linear trend on the 5-year average extent (for now) - however since I can only start the full 5-year average from July 2007, the low extents from there are already masking the steeper extent losses in the early 2000s.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2019, 04:08:59 PM by stjuuv »

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1929 on: July 31, 2019, 03:59:11 PM »
The mob awaits the spectacle of the mythical event that suddenly transforms us from ok to calamity. But AGW isn't a lion attack. It's a constrictor. Slowly and steadily tightening it's grip and suffocating us.

Can you keep your nonsense out of the data threads?

Particularly the Ad Hom nonsense:

Quote
This is an amusing question coming from you Killian. You don't seem too concerned with function in your own posts. What's the utility of your guessing extent losses every day?

Note...your posts don't bother me at all. They're harmless and a source of amusement. But there is irony in your questioning the value of more interesting data.

Killian

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1930 on: July 31, 2019, 04:02:32 PM »
Quote from: Killian
Excuse my ignorance, but what is the function or use of a 1-year trailing average?

State of the cryosphere...an average obscure measure

I'd say that it gives a more complete picture of the current trend in sea ice extent... as the minimum point reached in a given year may be more subject to random noise...
I think you can see that comparing 2016 with 2012.

2016 sea ice was low all year.
2012 was very much an extreme event at the end of the season followed by a strong recovery.

Thanks.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1931 on: July 31, 2019, 04:04:07 PM »
I just wondered that the E/SE part of the Hudson Bay must have been ice-free over winter/spring at least once.
Dec 25 2018 attached.
By March 2019 totally frozen up
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DrTskoul

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1932 on: July 31, 2019, 04:04:39 PM »
IMO, the data which would best represent what is going on in the Arctic is a 5 or 10 year rolling average.
Indeed, it's a lot easier to stick a linear trend on the 5-year average extent (for now), although it will definitely miss the eventual cliff.
Yeah but it misses phenomena like the rebound years

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1933 on: July 31, 2019, 04:14:00 PM »
The mob awaits the spectacle of the mythical event that suddenly transforms us from ok to calamity. But AGW isn't a lion attack. It's a constrictor. Slowly and steadily tightening it's grip and suffocating us.

Can you keep your nonsense out of the data threads?

Why is this nonsense? There is nothing in the quoted passage that I find "nonsensical".
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DrTskoul

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1934 on: July 31, 2019, 04:15:26 PM »
This thread is for DATA and for slight data commentary only.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1935 on: July 31, 2019, 04:15:59 PM »
The mob awaits the spectacle of the mythical event that suddenly transforms us from ok to calamity. But AGW isn't a lion attack. It's a constrictor. Slowly and steadily tightening it's grip and suffocating us.

Can you keep your nonsense out of the data threads?
OK, that is not exactly polite, but it is less than I have frequently seen on this forum.
Particularly the Ad Hom nonsense:

Quote
This is an amusing question coming from you Killian. You don't seem too concerned with function in your own posts. What's the utility of your guessing extent losses every day?

Note...your posts don't bother me at all. They're harmless and a source of amusement. But there is irony in your questioning the value of more interesting data.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1936 on: July 31, 2019, 04:18:32 PM »
This thread is for DATA and for slight data commentary only.
"slight data commentary" is a slippery slope. Either be data exclusively, or we will be arguing over what commentary is "slight".
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1937 on: July 31, 2019, 04:24:11 PM »
Personally, I would prefer it if it was those who contributed the data who were the ones to make (slight) comments about it. We already have one thread that is overrun with content-less screeds. And as one who has not contributed value to this thread, I will now shut up.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1938 on: July 31, 2019, 04:26:43 PM »
This thread is for DATA and for slight data commentary only.
"slight data commentary" is a slippery slope. Either be data exclusively, or we will be arguing over what commentary is "slight".

Yes you can ask somebody to explain the data product if you misunderstand it or you want it plotted a different way... you cannot post tables numbers and nothing more...

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1939 on: July 31, 2019, 05:07:23 PM »
IMO, the data which would best represent what is going on in the Arctic is a 5 or 10 year rolling average.
Indeed, it's a lot easier to stick a linear trend on the 5-year average extent (for now) - however since I can only start the full 5-year average from July 2007, the low extents from there are already masking the steeper extent losses in the early 2000s.
There are many different ways to look at change is sea ice. Each gives a different view. Examples attached are looking at open water percentages instead of sea ice area. Still under development.
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1940 on: July 31, 2019, 05:08:55 PM »
NSIDC daily extent


Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1941 on: July 31, 2019, 05:23:29 PM »
Evaluation of the individual seas' area "relative area wise" July 17-30.
The highest loss was found in Hudson (81%)
Losses between 52 and 46% happened in Chukchi, Kara, Baffin, and Barents.
Around a third of ice area was lost in Grønland Sea and ESS.
Between 25 and 17% loss was measured in Laptev, Beaufort and CAA.
A very minor loss (< 1%) occurred in the largest sea (CAB)

Seas with almost no ice were not analysed.
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1942 on: July 31, 2019, 05:47:50 PM »

There are many different ways to look at change is sea ice. Each gives a different view. Examples attached are looking at open water percentages instead of sea ice area. Still under development.

Love these charts. It is interesting to see the jump up for the CAB in 2007 when so much MYI met its demise. The % of open sea has been higher since.

Chukchi as well.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1943 on: July 31, 2019, 11:24:47 PM »

Excuse my ignorance, but what is the function or use of a 1-year trailing average?

This is an amusing question coming from you Killian. You don't seem too concerned with function in your own posts. What's the utility of your guessing extent losses every day?

Note...your posts don't bother me at all. They're harmless and a source of amusement. But there is irony in your questioning the value of more interesting data.

Rich, from the moment you have registered as a member here, you've been causing frictions. Going into August (a very important one), I'd appreciate it if you could refrain from behaviour that distracts from the topics at hand. Killian asked a perfectly sensible question.
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1944 on: August 01, 2019, 05:51:12 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 31st, 2019:
     5,955,851 km2, a drop of -41,901 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1945 on: August 01, 2019, 05:53:48 AM »
In order to really beat 2012 this year, the ice is gonna need to melt like crazy. I could very well be wrong, but I am getting the feeling this year will beat out 2016, not 2012.
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1946 on: August 01, 2019, 05:59:32 AM »
In order to really beat 2012 this year, the ice is gonna need to melt like crazy. I could very well be wrong, but I am getting the feeling this year will beat out 2016, not 2012.
I invite everyone to vote and post on the new "JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll" (and also on the "NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll"):

JAXA:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2845.0.html
NSIDC:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2846.0.html

P.S. Neven: Can you stick the polls on the "Arctic sea ice" top topics? Thanks.  :)
« Last Edit: August 01, 2019, 06:44:53 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1947 on: August 01, 2019, 06:49:45 AM »
Quote from: Killian
Excuse my ignorance, but what is the function or use of a 1-year trailing average?

State of the cryosphere...an average obscure measure

I'd say that it gives a more complete picture of the current trend in sea ice extent... as the minimum point reached in a given year may be more subject to random noise...
I think you can see that comparing 2016 with 2012.

2016 sea ice was low all year.
2012 was very much an extreme event at the end of the season followed by a strong recovery.

Thanks.
One year trailing average is very useful to follow non linear datasets. I have been using it a lot in a facility management context and have written a small article about it. Just that i used "running average" instead of "trailing average". I still hsve to correct this. https://bayenet.jimdo.com/running-calculation-methodology/

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1948 on: August 01, 2019, 07:34:20 AM »
Daily Change to Exceed 2012 Record Daily Lows

7/31/2019 = -40k
                = 5.96M km sq., a record low for the date.

8/01/2012 = 6.08M km sq.
7/31/2019 = Gain of < 120k km sq. required for a record low on this date.
Thanks, Phil.
(Another complaint, another change. Those of you who like these posts, better? Answer via PM *only*, please.

Those of you who don't like them: Shush. Scroll.)

-----------------------------------

Daily Changes Needed to Exceed 2012 low on Aug. 10. (Related to effect of GAC and it's import vs. 2019's melt cycle.) (Thx to Psymmo.)
8/10/2012 stood at 4.94M km sq.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 102.00k km sq. for a record low on this post-GAC date. (10 days)

Daily Changes Needed to Exceed 2012 Record Low on Sept. 15. (Related to comparison of 2012 vs 2019's melt cycle.)
9/15/2012 stood at 3.18M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 60.43k km sq. for a record low on this date. (46 days)
« Last Edit: August 01, 2019, 04:34:31 PM by Killian »

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1949 on: August 01, 2019, 08:27:01 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 5,955,851 km2(July 31, 2019)

Whoops #1
As NSIDC area loss suddenly begins to accelerate, JAXA extent loss suddenly slows down.

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (43 days this year), extent is 131 k below 2012, 482 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 42 k, 23 k LESS than the average loss on this day of 65 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 8,315 k, 565 k (7.3%) greater than the average of 7,751 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 78.4% of the melting season done, with 44 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
**Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.83 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.65 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.19 million below the 2nd lowest  in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will initially slowly reduce, this reduction in daily loss gradually accelerating on the approach to minimum. 

Over the next 5 days Greenland, Baffin Bay and the CAA will still be warm, and at times hot. The CAA may well get some rain. And once again it looks like there will be little or no export of ice down the Fram into the Greenland Sea, though on the Russian side winds may tend to push ice into the Barents. Even sea ice drift seems pretty minimal.

In other words, nothing seems to have changed to account for the sudden drop in extent loss on this day. But it is just one day.

I will seek enlightenment on the melting thread. Wish me luck.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2019, 09:59:57 AM by gerontocrat »
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