JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 5,000,009 km2(August 11, 2019)
JAXA daily extent loss on this day was again well above average, yet another century break.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record (after 49 days at lowest this year),
- Extent is 112 k above 2012, 494 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 107 k, 42 k more than the average loss on this day of 65 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 9.271 k, 716 k (8.4%) greater than the average of 8,556 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 86.6% of the melting season done, with 33 days to average date of minimum (13 September).
The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.68 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.50 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.34 million below the 2nd lowest in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.
Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will gradually reduce until the minimum.
GFS 5 day weather outlook Again, almost no change
- Central Siberia looks very warm, with the warmth spread to the far east and Alaska
- A band of cold weather from Western Canada to the south of Hudson Bay,
- Northern Greenland, Baffin Bay and the CAA still warm - with occasional rain on the CAA.
- Southern Greenland below average temperatures.
- A low centered over Novaya Zemla bringing southerly winds from a very warm Siberia may push warmth and even rain across the Arctic Ocean. and then winds from the central arctic towards the Barents.
- And once again it looks like there will be not much export of ice down the Fram into the Greenland Sea.
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To be a record low, remaining melt needs to be 40% above the average. No year has ever done this from this late date in the season - not even 2012.
The average projection, being less than 3.75, is down one bin, and may threaten to go down one more.
JAXA daily loss is staying strong, in contrast with the 8, 9 & 10 Aug NSIDC Area data.
Was the NSIDC data on those days an aberration or is compaction real and continuing ?
There is certainly warmth around, both in the air and the sea. I wonder how much this run of very high extent losses is due to that and how much to the poor condition of the ice.