JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,248,474 km2(September 1, 2019)
On this day extent loss decreased to a feeble below average 11k (after the previous day's respectable 43k ).
- Extent is now 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 773 k greater than 2012, 80 k greater than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 11 k, 17 k LESS than the average loss on this day of 28 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 10,023 k, 390 k (4.1%) greater than the average of 9,633 k loss from maximum by this day,
- Extent loss from maximum to date is still second highest in at least the last 12 years, only second to 2012,
- If extent loss stopped on this day, 2019 would be the 4th lowest minimum in the satellite record (just 2012, 2016 and 2007 less),
- On average 97.5% of the melting season done, with 12 days to average date of minimum (13 September).
The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt (0.25 million km) would give a minimum of 4.00 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.82 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.02 million below the 2nd lowest in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.
Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will gradually but erratically reduce until the minimum.
Each day now consumes 8% of the average time available for further extent loss. However, in the the last 10 years there were as few as 7 days or as many as 21 days of extent losses to come.
But perhaps the final days of the season will ring the changes yet again. With very high SSTs and bottom melt still underway, this could provide the conditions for a later date of minimum as well as a slow refreeze (if surface weather conditions are at least not unfavourable)
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Friv mentioned the possibility of high extent losses in September - and look what happens, extent loss on this day barely more than 1/3rd of average. There are times I get anthropomorphic about sea ice, and ascribe malevolence to its nature.